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March 23, 2006 4:00 AM PST
Vista delay could add up to Mac sales
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While Microsoft has been struggling to release its new operating system, Apple has regularly put out updates for its Mac OS. Moreover, Apple is already strong in areas where Microsoft has promised to deliver key improvements with Vista: security, and features such as video and photo editing and search, analysts said.
"Apple is the one clear beneficiary of the flip in Vista," said Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray. If shoppers are looking for what Vista has been promising, the decision is easy, he said. Before, "they would have...had to look at a PC against a Mac. Now they only have one choice, at least for this holiday season, and that's the Mac."
Microsoft announced on Tuesday that Vista, the successor to the 4-year-old Windows XP operating system, won't be widely available to consumers until January. That has PC makers and retailers missing the important December shopping season to sell computers with the long-anticipated new Windows software.
Microsoft's loss is Apple's gain is the consensus among analysts. "Apple...should enjoy a less competitive market for another holiday season against an aging Windows offering," Richard Farmer, an analyst with Merrill Lynch, wrote in a research note Wednesday.
The Cupertino, Calif., company has an opportunity to further boost sales of Macs, which have already grown significantly in past years, said Shaw Wu, an analyst with American Technology Research in San Francisco. As an additional benefit, Apple now has more time to work on its next operating system release, Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard, he said.
The Vista delay is most likely to be felt by those trying to sell into the consumer market, a space Apple knows very well, Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg said. "It is a real opportunity for Apple to tout the features of their operating system and, of course, the fact that that operating system is available now."
Apple shipped 4.5 million Macs in its 2005 fiscal year, which ended last September. That was up 38 percent from 3.3 million units in the earlier year, according to American Technology Research. For the current year, the research outfit predicts that Apple will ship 4.8 million Macs, a 5 percent year-on-year increase, Wu said.
Microsoft's delay will help generate Mac sales, but it's tough to say how many, the analysts said. "There are two critical PC-buying windows for computers: back-to-school and the holiday season," Piper Jaffray's Munster said. "Microsoft is going to be on the sidelines for both of those this year. That has to benefit Apple."
However, Apple also faces some challenges, particularly with its transition to Intel processors, Wu said. "The Microsoft delay helps, but I think Apple is limited a bit by the fact that it still has not moved its entire product line to Intel," he said.
Microsoft is being hampered by its own success. Apple has been able to churn out operating system update after update, while Microsoft has now taken more than five years to ship a new OS.
"The biggest reason is that Microsoft has a much harder job to do," Munster said. "They need to be compatible with an army of devices and different types of software and different hardware platforms. Apple only has to be true to itself, and because of that the development process is multiple times more efficient for Apple."
Apple has jabbed at Microsoft's slower pace, most notably at its June 2004 developer conference, where it posted huge banners with taunts such as "Redmond, we have a problem" and "This should keep Redmond busy." (Microsoft, of course, is based in Redmond, Wash.)
The two are likely to draw even more head-to-head comparisons now that both operating systems are running on the same underlying processors and other internal components.
Apple's quicker pace has allowed it to get new features into its operating system faster. For example, both Microsoft and Apple talked about the need for improved desktop search at roughly the same time. Apple shipped the feature as part of a Mac OS X 10.4 update last April, while Microsoft's similar feature won't show up until Vista, though the company has made a downloadable desktop search add-on available amid competition from Google and others.
Many of the new music-handling and photo management tools in Vista are also strikingly similar to features that Apple has either in its OS or in companion products such as iPhoto and iTunes.
Apple had its own quagmire back in the 1990s as it tried to ready its next-generation operating system. In many ways, the original Mac OS X was an operating system that was seven years in the making.
But by moving to a newer and more modern base, Apple has been able to crank out successors in very short order. Apple released the original version of Mac OS X five years ago this Friday, and in September it served up the 10.1 update that fixed some of the bugs and features that were missing from the initial release.
Three more releases, all paid updates, have followed. Mac OS X 10.2 Jaguar was released in August 2002, Mac OS X 10.3 Panther came in October 2003 and Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger went on sale in April 2005.
Apple has since slowed the pace somewhat. Apple Chief Software Technology Officer Avie Tevanian said in 2004 that Apple would take a little bit longer with Tiger and its successors than it had with the first few releases of OS X.
Still, the company is slated to release Leopard, the next release of OS X, either late this year or early next year. That means it too could conceivably be on new machines before Vista.
Apple declined to comment for this story.
See more CNET content tagged:
American Technology Research, holiday season, Apple Computer, OS X Leopard, delay
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the new Intel Macs. With Vista now not supporting EFI and the
extra delay it will damage the Mac sales, not improve it.
Buyers are now already waiting to buy hardware because of Vista
and the extra few months won't change that. Lets hope MS
makes Vista Mac compatible!!
The mac philosophy is to maintain a premium brand that customers value as being greater than the sum of its parts. This is acheived by maintaining tight control over the manufacturing process, software standards and the underlying operating system. If you have used a mac for more than a few days you will realise that its value comes not from its parts but rather from how well the whole thing has been put together as an extensible package. Vista does not fit into this philosophy.
The quality of an OS is only one minor factor in determining how
many people buy it. The big factor is INERTIA. There's a built in
incentive to stick with what one knows and what works already.
Even if Vista was on schedule, Microsofts' biggest competitor
would be itself in the form of Windows XP. It will be tough for
Microsoft, let alone Apple to wrest market share from the
incumbent OS.
In the near future, OS X gains will be about an additional 3% of
market share or so.
Plus, the biggest draw for consumers is still musak playing and downloading, something you do perfectly fine on a PC. Photo editing, too, can be done extremely easy.
users shopping for bargains will find their cheap PCs can't run it
so guess what VISTA (bloated) has undercut its potential
advantage to run on cheap PCs. Also, considering the Mac OS X
isn't even compiled for performance, it is apparent VISTA will be
in trouble (have you seen Windows XP benchmarks on the new
intel macs). DELL is already running scared scarfing up
Alienware.
Corporate buyers are not moving to VISTA anytime soon (2
maybe 3 years). I know our institution will not because none of
the hardware we presently have can run it decently and our
replenishment time is 3 years now).
Microsoft's house of cards is on the verge of collapsing.
environments? Journalism? Are you kidding?
You have know idea what you are talking about.
Exactly, there are quite a few that I know of....
"I know quite a few people that are considering moving back to windows because they feel apple "sold out" with intel."
Ok, so you know some windows users that switched to Mac and are now gonna switch back cause it runs on Intel?!?!?
That just doesn't make sense, why would ex-widows users be mad about a switch to Intel???
Exactly, there are quite a few that I know of....
"I know quite a few people that are considering moving back to windows because they feel apple "sold out" with intel."
Ok, so you know some windows users that switched to Mac and are now gonna switch back cause it runs on Intel?!?!?
That just doesn't make sense, why would ex-windows users be mad about a switch to Intel???
I find it hard to believe that people in the market for a new computer around the holiday would switch to Mac on the basis that Windows Vista is delayed. How many casual computer users that use Windows even know what Vista is? Sure, WE all know what Vista is, but C|Net is not to be taken as a representative of the population at large. For your average computer buyer, a Windows machine is an easy sell. It runs a majority of your old programs (compared to none if you switch), plays games if your kids or you are into that sort of thing (compared to almost none if you switch), and is on the whole cheaper from a hardware standpoint across the board. The value buyer, which comprises a significant majority of the market, is not likely to be swayed.
I wouldn't be surprised if PC sellers offered some sort of "XP now, Vista later" program. Though Microsoft better hope their upgrader is flawless - a risky assumption for a new product.
will make some of them prefer a Mac as a christmas gift, because
many of them will like all the eye candy that XP doesn't have, and
because they don't know that Vista is about to arrive, they won't
buy a PC to update it later with an OS that they don't know it exist.
I have a powerbook, and I have more games than I will ever play in a lifetime for Mac OS X. Lets see, Quake 3, Unreal Tournament 2004, Quake 4, World of Warcraft, Warcraft 3,Command and Conquer Generals,Reel casino, Ford Racing, Xplane (which, by the way, is every bit as good as MS Flight Sim in every way), Zoo Tycoon 1 and 2, The Sims 1 and 2, Sim City 4000, Halo, True Crimes, Call of Duty. Damn your right! There's nothing to play on the Mac (note the sarcasm)!
Friday, and in September it served up the 10.1 update that fixed
some of the bugs and features that were missing from the initial
release."
This sentence makes it sound as if it took Apple almost five years
to deliver the 10.1 update.
"Apple released the original version of Mac OS X five years ago
this Friday, and in September it served up the 10.1 update that
fixed some of the bugs and features that were missing from the
initial release." This sentence makes it sound as if it took Apple
almost five years to deliver the 10.1 update."
They released the original Mac OS X (10.0) 5 years ago.. and
then that September they released the .1 update. How is that 5
years? Oh and remember, good things take time to create.
probably not a huge amount. I use OSX and Windows at work, and
while I currently like OSX more than XP....I am interested in using
Vista. Nothing wrong with 2 good OS's.
right out of the box?
we're talking about microsoft, who needs three SP's for each
product to correct the initial mistakes. that's one place where
apple has always killed, their products work, well, right out of
the box.
vista will be a tank out of the box. it'll have problems and short-
comings just like every other MS release. then we'll all just start
talking about the next iteration of the same-old same-old and
apple will be chugging along, 10 years ahead.
makers for the past year or so already. I'm not sure that Vista
being delayed once again will make that much difference.
But, considering that Vista has been stripped down so much that it
is just a re-skinned version of XP appealing basically to consumers,
Apple could pick up some more "switchers".
Tiger that released almost a year ago. They can never be original
can they....
Comprehensible?
Seriously... how can you really compare the two? The only comparison that is really made is Jobs to Gates (interesting both their names end in 's')
Apple creates a full working computer complete with OS. Microsoft creates (I use that term loosely here) an OS and software.
I don't think Apple is looking to make macs compatiable with microsofts OS... why why why would they. Apple has a better OS and why corrupt their hardware, that beautiful hardware, with Vista or XP???
Apple sales in computers has nothing to do with microsoft. Hardware vs software... no.
The reason for Apple's increase in sales is due to Apple not due to Microsoft. Apple is a premium product. The ipod is the reason for the increase in mac sales. Prove me wrong on that one. For people who didn't know mac or only heard about it, they were schooled when the ipod came out. ipod, itunes, podcast... apple has created its own market which has NOTHING to do with Microsoft.
Jobs and Gates is the comparison here, the success of the two men/companies, not their OS systems. Jobs is just not a greedy self-indulgent looking for acceptance having to prove himself by making more more money with crappy products only interested in marketing (deception) and not value. Believe me the man is rich and does not need to own the world... he actually has standards.
"Jobs is just not a greedy self-indulgent looking for acceptance having to prove himself by making more more money with crappy products only interested in marketing (deception) and not value."
Wow. Just wow. It's clear how little you know of Jobs. That sentance is the 100% best description of Steve Jobs if there ever was one.
I invite you and any Mac user out there to PLEASE buy text books on computer engineering and software engineering. Read them. Understand them. Only then will you truely come to understand how Jobs and Apple so perfectly resemble your sentance.
And what's with the nonsense about desktop search? Windows users can choose from a host of free products, Yahoo and Google being two of the most prominent. There is nothing you can do on a Mac that you can't do on a PC. But there are many things you can only run on a PC, like most major business software packages. But why should we bother talking about that? Nobody uses Macs in the business world anyway.
QUALITY. Steve Jobs has said over and over, his/Apple's goal is to make "the best computers we can". Not the bargain basement approach which yields mediocrity. Windows. I use Windows at work and Macs whenever I can. Macs just work.
In either case though the decision for or against Apple is based on a lot more than just how frequently the OS is released which means that the advantage gained or lost because of a product delay is small.
No wonder you feel that way.
Apple is barely competing for the Business market. And "Incremental" upGRADESs? Not so incremental my friend. Apple will now be TWO FULL UPGRADES AHEAD of Microsoft's Windozzzzzzz...
No, the fundamentals of the computer market aren't going to change over the next six months: Apple will still price all of its hardware and software out of the market; pc makers will continue to keep their prices competitive by building for Windows; the majority of the buying public will continue to look for what they became comfortable with (Windows); and the Linux people will continue to draw circles in the air rather than get out into the real world and put their OS on hardware shipped to retailers, so by default Microsoft's position in the market will remain unchanged until VISTA comes out.
So funny!
while over the same time MICROSOFT has changed from $28 to $26.75 or a change of 5.6% (<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=microsoft&btnG=Search&hl=en" target="_newWindow">http://finance.google.com/finance?q=microsoft&btnG=Search&hl=en</a>)
Seems to me APPLE should be up on this news if it was going to result in increased results.
Want some advice? Buy low, sell high.
Play the lottery (the odds are in your favor;-)
revenue is still very high for Macs. Each and every quarter so far
they have increased Mac sales by astounding numbers, far greater
than any other manufacter. They do have momentum. OSX Leopard
will maybe be out before Vista. This would be a blow to M$ at least
in confidence of the consumer on the retail level for the most
important buying season of the year. Also remember the Intel
switch will over by then. Apple will increase sales, it is just how
much the increase will be.
happened to the stock price if the French DRM legislation had
not moved forward this week, garnering substantial attention in
the media. The run-up in Apple's stock price has been driven by
iPod-related business, so it would make sense that concern over
the long-term implications of that legislation would drive the
stock price down, regardless of another Microsoft delay.
Microsoft's problems cannot hurt Apple's sales, but to expect
dramatic switching is unrealistic. Still, every .1% of market share
for Apple is huge for the company even if they remain a small
portion of the overall market.
'Piper Jaffray's Munster said. "Microsoft is going to be on the sidelines for both of those this year. That has to benefit Apple."'
Microsoft will most certainly not be on the sidelines at all this year. They will continue to offer Windows XP which has evolved into a very capable and stable OS. Just because Apple iterates it's version number each time they come out with an update to OS X doesn't mean they are working hard and Microsoft hasn't updated XP in the last 4 years. XP SP2 is a huge leap and would have been called a whole new version by many companies. Microsoft gave it to us for free, thankfully.
During the two crucial buying seasons this year, people who buy new PCs will buy them with XP on them. Most will not know or care that Vista even exists or that Microsoft didn't get it out in time to put it on the shiny new PC they just bought.
I have a pc. I am a pc user. My next computer will be a mac. Why am I converting? Because of the "capable and stable". Microsoft OS can hardly be called stable nor capable. It is convenient. I can get a $200 computer with Microsoft OS... cheap.
Here's the deal, with every microsoft OS upgrade, I find myself getting a new computer. And with all the crashes and hanging/dragging, I find it so frustrating to work. I need a system that I can use to get things done. I don't need to play games on it. I need it to simply work. And if I am spending money on new computers because the OS destroys the hardware, then one might think I'd consider other options.
I am looking forward to purchasing a mac. I am looking forward to being more productive.
I suppose it depends on what you use the computer for. If you just use it for games or mostly just surfing (although xp hangs up with that too), then a pc with XP/vista/office whatever, might be fine. If one needs to actually be productive, run calculations (not even complex ones), create large documents, creat graphics, then I'm thinking the mac would be more useful.
gain market share, because the overall market is also increasing.
Now that the apple pressence is bigger than its market share,
because apples have longer life. Have you walked in a recicle
store? You might find some apple IIs or very old hardware,
compared to PCs cappable of runing Win2000 or even XP, and
you can find them in the trash too, but you will not find a PPC
Mac there.
People will not buy Macs because Vista is delayed, people buy
macs because they want it, apples is not like a consolation prize.
It is not like, I bought it because it was the only thing available.
Good things take long ime to make... it is true, I do like Havana
Club 14yo, and perhaps I would like Vista, if they work another 8
years on it... perhaps.
These high school kids are annoying.
A lot of these posts are from people that have minimal experience using OS X and Macs, yet they diss them.
And most Mac users have NO experience in professional IT, and can't so much as spell Engineering without their spell checker, let alone study the subject. Yet the Apple fanbois will diss those people without a second thought. (Or a first thought for that matter.)
It also proves that Wallstreet is as technologically retarded as it was in the 70s, 80s and 90s.
First of all having an inferior OS on inferior hardware has done nothing to damage Microsoft's market share, ever. Better computers, better operating systems have all come and gone, Microsoft remains.
Second, no one cares if Vista is being delayed apart from a minority of idiots. No corporate or government purchaser would even consider leaving Vista on their PCs until at least 1 service pack has been released, and compatibility testing has proved that other software will not be impacted.
MS corporate licensing allows you to go back two OS versions and still be in compliance. ie. you could install Windows 2000 on an XP box, XP on a Vista box and remain fully compliant with your license agreement.
The reality is that either someone out their is incredibly stupid, or deliberately lying. I guarantee you that in one year exactly the same percentage of computers will have MS products installed as they do today.
The worst case scenario for Microsoft (and PC hardware manufacturers) is that first adopters will delay their purchase for a few months. As a percentage of new PC purchasers, these people remain as much of a minority as Linux or Mac users do in the corporate world.
Finally lets get something clear. Despite the number of flames I'm bound to get from idiots reading the first line of this post and ignoring the rest, I am not being critical of superior operating systems. I am simply stating reality. If you're deluded enough to believe that the Mac will make a significant comeback because of this delay, you were probably taken in by the delusion that an overpriced and underpowered Mini, or an overpriced MP3 player would also result in significant market share for Apple.
And while both these products have created a small increase in sales of Macs, none of the previous predictions have come true.
Bush is right about the media's coverage. The Apple nay-sayers here are wrong to attack the reporters here. This story and question is indeed a valid technology-business analysis and prognostication. The opinions and views QUOTED are from ANALYSTS - not the reporters. (necessarily;-)
I think that in the future most business computing will be done remotely. Anyone who has used Salesforce, webmail or online bill-pay knows how cool it is to have this data available from any computer on the internet. Googles recent acquisition of online word processor Writely shows me that they agree. Clearly, security becomes even more an issue with this kind of sensitive data being hosted remotely and Microsofts record in that area is lacking (understatement of the day)
Microsoft knows very well whats at stake on both fronts and although the delay of Vista may help Apple in the short-term, it may help them against Google in the longer term. If they cant get the security thing right the lose on both fronts.
These are my reasons
1) After windowsxp sp2, the number of problems in windows has come down. Many user are being extra careful about their machines. Many ISP are providing adware and antivirus for free (Atlease timewarner does). Microsoft auto update feature is good.
2) People probably spent money on buying software and games for windows. If user moves to mac, then they have to buy software again.
People have learnt to mitigate viruses, adware on windows. So there is no incentive to move to Mac.
3) Most users are used to using windows at work. So for them there is no learning curve to use windows at home. Some employers allow users to download windows software. Most notably Microsoft Office because of the enterprise licensing agreement, the employers have with microsoft.
4) Cost is definetly a factor. Windows machines are any day cheaper by couple of hundred dollars.
5) Microsoft marketing machine is any day better than Apple's. Microsoft also has ton of money.
6) There are tons of free software for Windows(Eg: Good Picasa etc)
However, there will be users who will buy a Mac for its cool looks and great OS. But this is not going to dent Microsoft OS.
Really geeks, who hate microsoft will go and install linux.
If VISTA has persistant issues with Virus, Spyware etc, its market share will definetly erode.
My prediction is Mac market share will go to 7 to 9% (Currently it is 5% - guess). Windows share will remain same or drop a little bit.
Currently I am windowsxp user and I am happy with what I have. Never had any problem with Virus or adware. I like the Mac OSX features and cool looks.
But this has not yet, made me, open my wallet to Apple.
Just my two cents.
Don't get me wrong. I like Apple and I hope to one day buy an
Intel Imac core duo in the near future for the originally cool OS X
and its unix features to just having the best of both worlds from
Apple & Microsoft.
But...
Least we forget that Microsoft is still a monopoly! They have all
the bases covered which is key to keeping their reputation in
place, although bad as of late), these of which are: Software
developers, Computer Manufacturers, Big-Time Investors and
the big ticket item, which is their achilles heel - Consumer &
Corporate mindshare. Its within these key elements they have
free reign over choices, we make as consumers.
They could delay Vista for a year and there will still be a loyal
consumer base buying their products. They probably could even
delay it to two years without a significant dent in their
marketshare. They could release it now, even if its not
completely finished yet (as crappy as it is( and it will instantly
sell in one day more than Apple's OS X could ever sell. Thats just
the truth of how much power they hold over this industry.
So hows this good for mac sales?
The business world runs on Windows computers, and using one is a mandatory business skill.
I'm not going to lock myself into being an Apple-only hardware buyer. With Windows, a person can choose to buy their hardware from Dell, or HP, or...
I'm not going to throw away my current Windows application software, and replace it with Apple software, if available.
Windows has a larger library of available applications than Apple.
Etc., etc., etc...
Apple makes pretty computers, but they are just obscure small-niche machines.
rote echoer of FUD. Here's hoping that you never figure out that
Macs are much more than pretty machines. You belong on a Dell,
dude!
Your unrequited love for Microsoft is touching.
But its exactly that unrequited. Its not reciprocated on their
behalf. John i'm sad to say that they truly don't care about you
as an average consumer. They love your money though. Did you
ever take a look at the pricing model for Vista. John, I'm sorry.
John you said "The business world runs on Windows computers,
and using one is a mandatory business skill." but don't you know
its because of this mentality they are harming consumers with
they're Monopolistic ways. Regardless of what the government
deems as such. John are you brainwashed?
John if its your choice not to by Apple software. So be it. I know
Microsoft wouldn't want it any other way and given your views
Apple wouldn't want it any other way, either. John you said
"With Windows, a person can choose to buy their hardware from
Dell, or HP, or... I'm not going to throw away my current
Windows application software, and replace it with Apple
software, if available." John you truly are demonstrating your
savage love for Microsoft. I respect that, but don't you realize
thats its because Windows is availaible on all those machines, its
also harming consumers choices and John whether it be Dell or
HP or Sony its not by choice on their part. Why? Apple hasn't
licensed the Mac OS, yet.
Lastly John you said "I'm not going to throw away my current
Windows application software, and replace it with Apple
software, if available. Windows has a larger library of available
applications than Apple." John seriously now.. Its not about
quantity its about the quality of software thats out there and I'm
sure you haven't seen the titles readily available for the mac so
why bother getting into detail.
And yes Apple does make super cool looking computers, I know
thats what you had meant buy "pretty" but John theres also
substance behind those pretty looks. I wish I can say that for a
Dell machine John, but I can't their just horrid. John you don't
sound like the type to own either a Dell or an HP are you also
one of those Windows users that treat their machine like it was a
classic automobile.. Haha..
Either way John good luck with your Windows machine.. I'm sure
its your source of pride and joy.
One word... "Overkill"
I hate to repeat a tired argument, but it still rings true.... Who needs 100 titles that do the same thing when you can still buy 10 of the really good ones for the mac Platform?