August 17, 2006 4:00 AM PDT
Virtual wireless carriers face tough times
Disney Mobile, which launched its service in April in the U.S. , cancelled its plans to launch a U.K. version of the service earlier this week. While Disney blamed a difficult retail market for its decision, some wonder if the company's decision to not expand into the U.K. is a reflection of difficult times the service is having at home.
Disney Mobile, Mobile ESPN and Helio, which is owned jointly by EarthLink and SK Telecom of South Korea, are what is known as MVNOs, or mobile virtual network operators. Instead of owning their networks, the companies lease wireless capacity from Sprint Nextel to deliver their services.
Some MVNOs such as Virgin Mobile and TracFone, which offer prepaid services for customers who don't want a service contract or who have bad credit, have done well over the past few years, racking up hundreds of thousands of subscribers. But recently launched MVNOs, which have focused on high-end wireless customers by offering loads of multimedia content and features, have struggled to attract large numbers of customers, calling into question their strategies.
"The real question is whether or not they can sustain a business targeting the same customers that the big cellular operators are going after," said Phil Kendall, director of wireless services at Strategy Analytics, a market research firm. "The beauty of the MVNO model is there is low overhead, because they don't own the network. But they also don't have the marketing splash or the retail presence of the bigger carriers."
Disney, which operates both Disney Mobile and Mobile ESPN, is already facing massive losses from its MVNO ventures. Together, they're expected to lose about $135 million in fiscal year 2006, according to a recent report published by Merrill Lynch.
Mobile ESPN is expected to sign up a total of only 30,000 subscribers this year, well below original estimates of 240,000 subscribers. Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen has even called for Disney to shut down Mobile ESPN and cut its losses.
Disney executives have said they plan to move forward with Mobile ESPN. But Robert Iger, Disney's president and CEO, noted on the company's fiscal third-quarter conference call last week that Mobile ESPN, which launched during the Superbowl, has not lived up to expectations.
"The results, at least initially, even though it's only been six months, were disappointing and we're monitoring this carefully," he said.
Recent earnings reports from Sprint Nextel, which leases capacity to MVNOs, including Disney Mobile, Mobile ESPN, Helio and Virgin Mobile, also indicated troubles for these operators. For its second quarter of 2006, Sprint Nextel reported it had lost 31,000 MVNO/wholesale subscribers, a 5 percent decline for a total of 5.35 million subscribers.
Competition and the new MVNOs
The new MVNOs are also not tracking well historically with the performance of previous, more successful MVNOs, according to data from Strategy Analytics. For example, Boost Mobile, a youth-oriented MVNO owned by Sprint Nextel, launched in 2002 and racked up about 30,000 customers in its first quarter. And after a full year, Boost had signed up roughly 250,000 subscribers. Virgin Mobile reported it had signed up 1 million customers within nine months of launching its service back in 2002.
By contrast, Helio and Mobile ESPN likely have less than 10,000 subscribers apiece, according to Kendall of Strategy Analytics. Helio, Mobile ESPN, and Disney Mobile don't publish subscriber figures, and these companies wouldn't comment or verify figures estimated by analysts. But a Helio spokesman said the company is pleased with its subscriber growth rate so far.
What makes the newer MVNOs different from the ones that came before them, such as Boost and Virgin Mobile, is that they expect to peel away big-spending customers who already are being wooed by many of the large cell phone companies, such as Cingular, Sprint Nextel and Verizon Wireless, which are investing millions of dollars to market their own high-end services.
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