Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux

The cost of migrating from Windows XP to Windows Vista will encourage more companies to seriously consider moving to desktop Linux, the chief executive of open-source and networking company Novell said on Monday.

Speaking at Brainshare, the company's annual European user conference in Barcelona, Novell CEO Jack Messman claimed that the cost of moving desktops to the next version of Windows will be significantly higher than migrating to desktop Linux.

"The cost of migrating to Windows XP to Vista will be higher than the cost of migrating to Linux and that will push migrations to Linux," Messman said.

Novell says it is making real gains on the desktop in Europe currently and that many organizations are choosing its Linux Desktop product especially in vertical industries that require locked-down clients with limited functionality.

"Instead of a 'one-size-fits-all' approach, Novell Desktop can be customized to provide the right fit across different workstations in the enterprise," said David Patrick, general manager of open-source platforms for Novell. "So businesses finally have a secure and cost-effective alternative to Windows that serves the customer's return on investment rather than a vendor's proprietary licensing program."

Messman added that moving to desktop Linux has functionality benefits as well as cost benefits. He claimed that the fact that Novell's desktop Linux offering has less functionality than Microsoft Office is actually a positive rather than a negative thing.

Messman claimed that certain features of Office allowed employees to waste time at work by making it easy for them to browse non-work-related sites. "Do you really want to pay for all the excess functionality in Windows that distracts your employees and reduces their productivity?"

The City of Munich announced last week that it has delayed its migration to Linux on the desktop until 2006, a year later than planned and three years after it decided to migrate to Linux. Commenting on this news, Novell European general manager Volker Smid said he believed the setback would not be permanent. "I am more than convinced that these guys will achieve their aim no matter what, and proud that they have decided to go with Novell for the server element of the migration," said Smid.

Recent migrations to Novell's desktop Linux package include SEB Eesti UHispank, the largest bank in Estonia, which is using Novell's SuSE Linux for bank teller workstations.

The municipality of Baerum in Norway is migrating 40 schools from Windows to Linux too. According to IT manager Siri Opheim, a pilot scheme yielded good results and full migration is expected to begin at the end of 2005. "While we don't expect to move every user in our enterprise to Linux desktops, we believe we can achieve real savings by starting to move users in education," he said.

Schools can save a considerable amount of money by switching from proprietary software to open-source software, according to a report released in May by the British Educational Communications and Technology Association. The report found that primary schools could cut computer costs by nearly half if they stopped buying, operating and supporting products from proprietary software vendors such as Microsoft.

According to a recent report from Windows IT Pro, Windows Vista is due to ship on Dec. 7, 2006. However Microsoft has refused to confirm or deny the reports and continues to claim simply that Windows Vista will ship in the second half of next year.

Andrew Donoghue of ZDNet UK reported from London.

[jean.luc.picard]

another option

Of course, this is an obvious thing. the guy from Novell has seen
this happen, too. the other option is to migrate to Mac and OS X.
the power and security of this UNIX BSD based operating system
can't be beat.
When you replace old computers in whatever your cycle of
replacement is, buy Mac. No viruses, no trojans, no malware at all.
Zero. And all the open source software is available for Macs, too.

[ZeroJCF]

MACs are NOT perfect

Sorry, but MACs can get as many virus's as any other platforms. I have an iBook and I know this for a fact. I worked at a Magazine (End to End MAC) and had the whole Networking knocked out in OS.X. It does happen, and when it does you are just as screwed as the Win users. I like MACs, but they are far from perfect. Anyone who has worked in a MAC/Win networking enivorment knows this.

[thedreaming]

It's all about cost...

I love macs, wish I had the money for one. Even the mac-mini is out of my reach right now, so when it comes time to upgrade my os, I'm probably go linux myself. I'm not thrilled about having to upgrade to vista when it does what xp does, but costs more and needs better hardware.

[raitchison]

It all depends

I think it depends a lot on the actual system requirements when it ships.

If as rumored it really will need 1Gb of RAM and 256Mb video memory to perform satisfactorily they won't be getting a lot of upgrade business that's for sure. Some people will opt to go Linux instead of buying a new PC.

I know Vista is at least 18 months out but today a 256Mb video card alone costs more than most entry level consumer PCs.

If it performs well (not running games, running stuff like Office) in 512Mb of RAM with a normal (32Mb) video card it will not drive adoption of Linux one bit.

I'd like to say the DRM features built into Vista will be a bigger driver towards things like Linux but sadly I don't think Joe consumer will ever realize how much DRM screws them over much less take a stand against it by switching to an operating system they don't know how to use.

[System Tyrant]

Novell...

is a great company, but one thing that stops my company from migrating to Linux on the desktop is thrid party software.

If all we had to deal with was an office application and e-mail we would be set, but unfortunatly for us we have specialized software that doesn't come in any linux flavor. And there isn't any alternitive.

** Different subject **

Having access to Novell Linux Desktop I can tell you it's a step in the right direction for SuSe Linux, but when compared to Ubuntu I would prefer Ubunutu. I loaded Ubuntu and NLD on one of my test computers and Ubuntu just seams to run faster and work smoother. Not to mention it was loads easier to install. I also prefer the Synapsis Package Manager over Red Carpet.

With NLD I still can't get Firefox to locate webpages very fast (takes awhile to query the DNS). I find that debian distros just seam to work better than RedHat style distros. I'm sure the differences at the core aren't that much, but their's something. Of course that's just my opinion and I not a linux expert by any stretch of the word.

[RobertBruce1975]

Why upgrade? Why switch at all?

I'm assuming this wont drive many people to linux or mac. We'll just stay with xp. Not a great OS but it works.

[Charleston Charge]

Very True

I don't think most people will feel the need to migrate as long as their current apps are running fine. There is still a large number of people running Win 2000 as well as 98 so I only think people will get Vista when it comes packaged with a new PC.

However, Suse is a very great product but its one real drawback is lack of support for third party apps.

[aabcdefghij987654321]

Security Holes

The need to upgrade comes from Microsoft's "retiring" of older products. Eventually, Microsoft will stop offering updates and service packs for Windows XP. This will leave a system running it more vulnerable to attacks. Switching to Linux will allow one to continue to use older hardware that may not be able to run Vista.

Businesses will be driven to Linux by the low upgrade cost and increased control of the employee desktop. Joe Consumer will likely be driven to using Linux at home after he is burned by the DRM in Vista.

[Earl Benser]

Business app requirements control the choices...

... so a Windows Whatever OS will remain a necessity. But,
Win2K, with an experienced IT team, doesn't need MS support.
Same will be true for WinXP. MS will wave the flag and scream
'Charge', and for the most part, be ignored by business
operations. And new PC's with Vista can easily become Win2k
and WinXP machines. And maybe soon, your can buy your new
computers without an OS at all - leaves the OS choice up to you,
not MS.

Unless someone can give me a very compelling reason
otherwise, my PC's will stay on XP and not be upgraded to Vista.
The PC's do what I want now, the way I want it done, and Vista
sure can't improve on that.

[Migraine]

I agree

I with you 100% XP is not perfect, but it works I plan on staying with it.

I see no need to to switch to vista at this time for just what I call "window dressing"

Unless I hear it sa lot more stable than xp I don't plan on upgrading ..if you can call Vista a upgrade that is?

[e-mail]

[thedreaming]

xp

When it came out, looking for a change and an os that wouldn't crash and run my windows software, I adopted it. I loved it. I still do, despite its never ending security flaws, but since it's on 90% of all pcs, it's a good target for every bad guy/girl out there.

Vista - just another Windows

Sure it has DRM, a 3D accelerated desktop and comes in 7 different flavors. But it's still made by the same company that brought you Windows 3.x, 95, 98, 2000 and XP who always precede a new OS release with statements like: "The best Windows ever!", "Be more productive!" and "The most secure Windows ever!". None of which has ever been true. While XP is much better than it's predecessors, it's still a major security problem that demands that the consumer shell out additional time and money in the form of antivirus and antispyware software to fix.

This looks like a golden opportunity for Apple to step in and grab a bigger share of the market, something I don't think they're fully prepared to do yet. For one thing, they need to make it easier for Windows users to switch, like providing data migration tools and tutorials on how to perform tasks in OSX the way that they did so in Windows.

As far as Linux and OSS goes, they are excellent backoffice products but definately not ready for mass consumption on the desktop. Too many distro's, lack of standards and complex manageability. Something that Apple did a fantastic job of solving with the *nix based OSX.

I can't see Linux getting it's act together in time to take on the mass hoards of people who will most likely defect from Windows when support for XP comes to an end. But if Apple does things right, we could well see a major platform shift on the Desktop over the next 5 years while Microsoft continues to destroy itself.

[jean.luc.picard]

good points

Your points are well taken. any analyst that leave Apple out of
the eqution these days is asking to be proved wrong.

Some additional info. The supply side a Apple seems to have
gotten their act together of recent. It doesn't hurt that most of
what goes into a Mac is standard industry bits and pieces. What
makes a Mac these days is not necessarily proprietary hardware.
It's the recipe for that hardware, i.e. what Apple is prepared to
support. I was in Dijon France this summer and toured the
mustard museum. The guide said repeatedly that Dijon mustard
is Dijon mustard, no matter where it is made, as long as it
follows the same recipe developped in Dijon several centuries
ago.

What makes a Mac is prescribed hardware and the Mac
OS.Period. It is clear from the current in progress migration of
Macs to the Intel platform that Apple believes this, too. So do
most of the Mac afficionados out there. As long as it just works,
as it always has, who cares what's inside the box.

In 24 months, we'll be awash in a rising sea of Macs There's not
an assembly plant out there that wouldn't jump at the chance to
be part of that growing momentum, like the iPods.

[Hernys]

Contradiction

You claim that none of that "best windows ever" marketing has ever been true, and then go on to say that XP is better than it's predecessors. Which one is right?
I would go with the later. You can't say that Windows 3.1 is a better OS than Windows 95, or more secure. Same thing for the others. Maybe it was more advanced for it's time (and I doubt that) but in absolute terms those claims have always been true. Not that there is anything amazing with that, if Microsoft took three years to develop a LESS advanced OS it would be really absurd.
On the other hand I never understood those guys that are always claiming that MS is not doing enough to advance Windows, or that its perfromance or security are unacceptable, and then stay with an older version, which is clearly less secure because it's good enough (and don't come saying it's not less secure, the vulnerability numbers are there and after support goes by they're all unpatched vulns).

[Llib Setag]

Go to Apple Store for data transfers & switching help

Apple Genius Bar personnel will gladly transfer any of your data
files to your new Mac that will run with Microsoft Office for Mac
OSX or any other major corporation business apps.

How much different is the the basic point & click mouse operations
with pull down menus in MS Office Suite vs. MS Office Suite for Mac
OSX?

[Dachi]

Who says Linux is a faster desktop?

In my opinion I would say XP is faster than most major distros. Another 14 months of Linux bloat will place XP well ahead in terms of being lighter and Linux will still be behind Windows 98 for desktop use in many ways.

Vista will add some bloat to the OS base, but it will also ship with some newer fatures and come with more secure defaults than XP did.

lets not forget that Linux also tends to lag behind Windwos in hardware support and with a major hardware upgrade cycle positioned at the release of Vista it will introduce hardware support problems for Linux distros.

In my opinion I don't see Linux gaining much ground and I am generally not wrong about these types of things.

PS. I am an Ubuntu user.

[Steven N]

Not my experience

I am using windows XP on a P4-2GHz machine with 1 GB and a Suse 9.3 on a PIII-750 MHz with 256 MB. Both are laptops.

Boot times on these two machines are more or less the same, even if the Suse box is way outdated.
The Suse beats the crap out of the Windows box when running Java apps.

Sometimes the response times are lagging on Suse, but I feel this is because of the limited memory in the box.

Overall I must say I like the Linux box best, it gives me the a very good experience, it gives you a feeling you control what is going on the machine.

What all Linux distros need to work on, is a uniform experience.
esp. for software installation there is a lot of work to do...

[System Tyrant]

It's give and take.

I find Ubuntu to feel faster than SuSe, but if I create a custom Windows install (cutting out all the crap) it's quite fast. The thing I have noticed about Ubuntu is that installing and uninstalling applications doesn't really seam to affect the overall speed. With Windows XP it seams to slow down and take longer to boot after awhile.

[Rusdude]

Win2K in Businesses

I work at a major international oil & gas company that has tens of thousands of computers and I don't think we'll be switching to XP, let alone Vista any time soon.

We run locked-down Win2K (mostly, no access to C: drive, registry, etc.) on Pentium 3 thin-clients (slowly updating to P4's). We also use a version of MS Office which is a few generations old.

Simply put, there aren't too many reasons for companies to switch if they have secured computers and established support system. For most BUSINESS tasks (email, word processing, etc.) even a Pentium III computer works. Even MS Office doesn't need to be upgraded because hardly any one takes advantage of all the functionality as it is -- they should make Office products simplier and more intuitive to use instead (what may seem easy to advanced users like most people on here, is incomprehensible to others, even if they have an MBA, MS, or JD).

[heystoopid]

Hmm, what price for a new OS?

Now M$, has a conundrum, as to why would the legion of existing users switch to Vista?, when existing systems function within reason with the existing software. Remember, corporations are forcing M$, to rethink it's stance on win2k, as they refuse to upgrade to XP pro, as it interferes with the Wall Street demands for maximum pofit,at the absolute minimum cost and capital expenditures! So, if M$, wants me to upgrade, they is gotta pay me, rather than me pay them, in view of the associated costs involved in equipment upgrades required, to operate the new OS!

[bruinsensei]

Those who live in glass houses...

This coming from the company that read the tea leaves and consequently bought WordPerfect, SCO UNIX, Caldera, and now SUSE. This, from the company who just got told by Credit Suisse to fire its entire Management ranks. This, from the company who has lost marketshare steadily for the last 5 years. Novell's the last company who should be making any predictions - their soothsaying is about as accurate as John "OS2 will dominate the world" Dvorak.

[Dachi]

Well said -nt-

nt = no text

[unknown unknown]

Reply

Novell isn't the only one predicting Vista is bad news. One doesn't exactly have to be a business guru to see that Microsoft has bent over for Hollywood. They've also made CPU intensive interface so they have all the GUI eye-candy like the Mac. They've pulling features left and right, about the only thing that has stayed is the previously mentioned GUI and the consumer unfriendly DRM. If one installs a driver or hardware not approved by Microsoft it will break other software on system. Also software makers who sign on to make Microsoft approved drivers have to agree to pay Microsoft a fine should their software contain flaws that compromise the OS's Secure Media Pathway (DRM). Do you want to buy a new monitor, with HDCP for video security, just so the OS will allow you to view HD content? Novell's past failings don't change the validity of their prediction. Their prediction has to judged on it's own merits.

OS/2 may very well have been a dominate OS had Microsoft not backed out and moved to kill it infavor of Windows.

Not in my opinion

I dont agree with Novell, there are so many instances of migration stories from Windows to Linux failing due to wrong estimations of cost and effort and time related to such activities. The city of Munich is a classic example and even now they are nowhere near completion.

I fail to understand how Novell is so sure in claiming that Win XP to Vista migration will be more expensive than a switch to Linux.

Nothing works as smoothly whether it is software or hardware under Linux as it does with Windows. A properly updated Windows machine is far more easier to use and manage. Also it is as secure or insecure as any other Operating System.

Security is something that you as an individual need to take care of. You cant blame the thieves if you leave house unlocked !!

Manik

[aabcdefghij987654321]

sarcastic

"buy Mac. No viruses, no trojans, no malware at all.
Zero. And all the open source software is available for Macs, too."

and best of all no lies or exaggerations!
very cost effective too
with all the saved money these eastern european schools can probably afford ipod nanos for all their students too

Where have I heard this before....

Ohh yes ?

?The high requirements for Windows 95 will drive people to OS/2??.
-Didn?t happen, OS/2 died almost immediately.

? The ridiculous requirements for Windows NT will drive people to NetWare??..
-Didn?t happen, NetWare died almost immediately.

?The cost of migrating from Windows XP to Windows Vista will encourage more companies to seriously consider moving to desktop Linux??.

Will it be different know ? I don?t think so.

That Linux will die? Not in the servers; at the desktop is already dead, just ask IBM.

[Mendz]

Now that reminds me a lot...

... of the good old days and the good old ways;
such bold statements put to waste...

;)

[nave.notnilc]

Ummm, no.

Have you ever ran a linux desktop? Go to Ubuntu.com, where
they will send you a free cd (no s&h costs either!), and take a
look. It runs fast on my 400Mhz PII 228MB RAM system, and the
vast software repository makes installation a snap. Linux on the
desktop is just being born.

[Llib Setag]

MSWin User Majority NOT with XP

Facts have stated from multiple surveys that the majority of
MSWin OS users are still using Win2000 or Win98 more than
WinXP.

(Why else would Citizen gates spend billions on a new campaign
for "Discover XP" commercials when Shorthorn is commin'
around the bend?)

Cost to upgrade from old PCs running Win98 or 2000 to new
computers that can fully utilize all the new features of Shorthorn
(Vista), IF in fact any of the truly "new" features ever make it into
AstalaVista OS 2007 / 2008?

[Llib Setag]

Remember Y2K?

Remember that "panic ploy" that drove millions of people
worldwide to upgrade their "soon to be inoperable Pre 2000 old
PCs" to the "new & improved Windows OS & new PCs?
Remember the "propaganda" that was printed as gospel that at
the stroke of midnight when 1999 turned to 2000 (Y2K) that all
the BIOS would shut off because your old computer would think
it was 1900?

Huge upgrades to PCs & Windows happened. The normal
upgrade cycle in the Wintel PC world is about 3-4 years & it is
going past five years now....

So, lo and behold, Win2000 viruses galore & "Vista"OS
2006/2007? is arriving, but you have to upgrade to keep secure
(WIN-DRM) & fully utilize all the cool new features (MAC OSX)
that Longhorn/Vista will be packing.

Just when you thought it was safe from Y2K...VISTA!

[ZeroJCF]

Linux Desktop... Not yet.

First, I am not a MSFT fanboy that believes that Windows is perfection. But any techies out there know that when it comes down to it, the end users are who drive our platforms. In certain specific industries, I can see a Linux desktop take a hold, but when it comes most corporate enviorments, windows still has the edge. I have run everything from Caldera to RedHat and there is no way that Linux is a cheaper "all around" migration at the desktop level. Server implementations are a different story, but desktops still have a loooooong way to go. Open Source fanboys need to understand, that just becuase it is not MSFT does not mean it's better or cheaper. I know in my enviroment/industry (Finance) Linux is not an option with my end users. I just finished a cost report for migration to linux and it would not be cheaper than Vista (Taken Windows XP migration costs).

[chochoa]

I don't think so...

don't get me wrong, i love the other OSs out there that's not windows. However, for a average consumer, forget it. Especially after seeing the simplicity of Vista and Office 12 seen on the PDC webcast. I understand it's cool and cheap and all. But not yet.

[Mendz]

Bold attempt to sell Linux...

The intent of Novell's statement is obvious. Novell's interest shows given their recent investments with Linux. Novell needs Linux to win. So, for Novell to be the first to release such statement is important for them.

That's fine really. But before Novell competes with Microsoft, maybe they should compete with the other Linux vendors first.

Linux is going to be great for sure but there is not one company that will be great with Linux. The competition is true among Linux brands/vendors. To win, a Linux brand/vendor must win the greater share of the Linux market first. Then later, or maybe eventually, the winner can own a big slice in the global OS market share.

Time will tell really... a lot of time will tell... For now, MS Windows leads a lot. Meanwhile, the Linux brands/vendors fight among themselves...

[noldrin]

4 years

It's only 4 years now that we are seeing business really migrating to Windows XP, and this is often Windows NT 4.0 shops.

The companies who currently have Windows 2000 and Windows XP who care about cost can easily wait till 2009 before they'll start feeling a need to move. Is Novell's plan to wait all that time?

What Novell should focus on is reasons to move to Linux that aren't about the problems of Windows, but the sucesses of Linux. I remember hearing people saying that Windows 95 will be so bad that everyone will move to OS/2 Warp. Well Windows 95 was frightfully bad, for worse than Vista will be, and yet the majority of people didn't even take a second look at OS/2 Warp

Linux has develope buds that could bloom into some very exciting options for computers and networks. This R&D needs to be funded instead of just the developement that tries to clone the Windows world. It's one of the reasons we are starting to see excitement again with the Mac. They are not standing still, they are coming up with better stuff. We are far more likely to see a migration from Windows to Mac, than to Linux.

This comes from someone who only uses Linux and other GNU software and dislikes the Mac.

[critofur]

Yes.

Vista looks to be crappy and a resource hog. Soon as I saw the pricing I knew that it would finally be time to make the Switch to Linux once XP reaches EOL. Tired of Windows pausing, slowing down, not staying responsive to the user. BeOS fixed the problems that Windows had years ago, why couldn't XP be as good as that?