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(continued from previous page)
Q: What's next for HD DVD and its backers, particularly Toshiba?
Toshiba is undeniably bruised. The tone at the company's CES press conference reflected not only damaged egos, but serious disappointment.
The company responded after the Warner fallout with aggressively lowered prices. Now, Toshiba could continue on that path, plodding along, gaining as much as it can from having the lower-priced player on the market, but it's not the only tack it could take. The electronics maker has actually set itself up to duck the format war now by venturing into the territory of upscaling DVD players, says NPD's Erickson.
At $149, the entry-level player from Toshiba is only slightly more expensive than a regular DVD player that will output in HD resolution. Toshiba could choose to change its marketing strategy and sell the HD-A3 as a so-called upscaling DVD player which, for a bit more, also plays HD DVDs. Instead of the main draw, HD DVD could become a bonus feature: it's an entirely different value proposition to buy a regular DVD player which, as a bonus, is able to play HD DVDs for a slightly higher cost, as opposed to feeling like you're dropping $150 on a player based on a format that might not be around in a year.
"Logically, if they succeed in selling a number of standalone players, that's impossible to ignore. That's going to be a very strong argument in their favor," Erickson said. In other words, studios would almost be forced to pay attention.
Toshiba hasn't given any indication that this is the route it'll pursue, but it's certainly a possibility.
Q: When will I have to choose sides?
Not for a while. The problem is that the majority of us are satisfied with DVDs and therefore not in a rush to buy a more expensive video player that plays more expensive discs. The current technology is acceptable to the vast majority of consumers and more importantly, we're used to buying discs for $10 to $20. Spending $35 on a title whose quality is good, but not dramatically different, has been a tough sell for the majority of consumers.
That could all change as the natural cycle of consumer electronics churns along, as prices on components drop, and as studios are able to produce discs in larger volumes.
Q: When exactly will prices become reasonable?
It is a legitimate concern that a loss of HD DVD as a viable format could slow down the rate at which Blu-ray has been forced to drop its prices over the last year. But analyst Josh Martin of the Yankee Group says even without a serious competing format, the major backers of Blu-ray, who've stuck together thus far, will begin to compete with each other.
The 2008 year's holiday shopping season is going to be very important for this. NPD says it doesn't anticipate mainstream adoption--based on anticipation of a variety of players under $200 and less expensive discs, until at least 2009.
"Those guys want to gain market share," said Martin of the Yankee Group. "Individual companies are going to make their stance, and we'll see price drops by and large from most of the big CE guys."
See more CNET content tagged:
HD-DVD, Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc., Blu-ray, backer, NPD Group Inc.






- HD DVD prices go down due to demand and value
- by samkass February 5, 2008 6:22 PM PST
- HD DVD players are going to keep dropping in prices as the <br />companies try to move inventory in the face of low demand and <br />reduced value (since it's basically going to be just an expensive <br />DVD player in a couple years).<br /><br />Reporting dropping HD DVD player prices as if it's some sort of <br />game-changer is just disingenuous. Blu-Ray won, but c|net <br />knows it can get a few more ad downloads if they declare the <br />format war not over yet.
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- fire sale?
- by Miked350z February 6, 2008 5:21 AM PST
- I'd agree with this comment. It makes sense for toshiba to <br />liquidate their stock. Although folks they dont do their homework <br />before purchasing will get burned. Thats what return policies are <br />for I guess. 2 studios will not and can not provide enough <br />content to keep hd-dvd alive :(
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- HD DVD is cheap because they need to clean house
- by jrm125 February 6, 2008 9:10 AM PST
- If they wait any longer word will totally be out to even the less than tech savvy that the format is a total loss. They need to sell it while they still can. Ironically, following the holidays, despite the fire sale of gear, Blu ray still came out on top. <br /><br />No one wants HD DVD
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