October 17, 2007 11:13 AM PDT
A real yardstick for virtual worlds?
There's currently nowhere to turn to get such reliable data--and Robert Bloomfield, an accounting professor at Cornell University, views that as a problem worth solving.
Bloomfield and Nick Wilson, editor of the blog Metaversed.com, have gotten together to start the Metaverse Market Index (MMI), the first system of its kind that would offer such data.
"The goal of the Metaverse Market Index is to create the data and the community to help the metaverse as a whole move forward," Bloomfield said. "Because without the data, no one knows anything, and without the community and the conversation, it's impossible to come to meaningful consensus."
Over the last year, makers of virtual worlds such as Second Life have been criticized for overly optimistic user statistics. And for major companies spending significant dollars on in-world offices, knowing whether that money is well spent is important. Already, there's been a backlash, as some companies have announced that they're scaling down or shuttering their Second Life projects.
For companies considering placing ads in virtual worlds, metrics aren't just useful, they're a prerequisite.
To the uninitiated, the "metaverse" is a catch-all term for 3D social virtual worlds such as Second Life or There, massively multiplayer online games like World of Warcraft and any one of hundreds of other similar online environments. And the idea that big businesses might desire hard data on what's going on in these spaces is not as absurd as some might think: companies like IBM, Cisco, Intel and many others have staked out significant territory in these worlds and show signs of wanting to do even more.
One sign of that desire is the interest by some of the biggest corporate names in technology in making the many different virtual worlds interoperable, as opposed to the walled gardens they are today.
For now, the MMI is little more than a concept, and Bloomfield and Wilson don't even have much of a team helping them out. In fact, Bloomfield said his first priority is putting together an advisory board that can help move the project forward with time, money and influence.
A goal of the MMI is to make it possible for those who want to understand the metaverse--and how to use it as a tool--to do so. Absent that understanding, and the kind of interoperability that Cisco, IBM and others are searching for, virtual worlds risk ending up as irrelevant mid-'90s-style networks, Bloomfield said.
"All these little worlds are growing up like the CompuServes and Prodigies," Bloomfield said, "and the way you have a breakout industry is if you can break down the barriers."
With that in mind, Bloomfield and Wilson expect to focus the MMI--once the advisory board and funding are in place--on three distinct areas.
First, he said, is user data. Essentially, that means studying the various virtual worlds and online games and determining individual and aggregate numbers for factors like total population and how much time people spend in-world.
Next, the MMI would look at economic data, Bloomfield said.
"You can't just look at clicks," he said. "I want to know the GNP of every world out there. We're not going to do that because it takes an army of civil servants. But there are some metrics we can use that would tell the investment community about the economic vibrancy and trends of the worlds. So even if we track (an economic) number, we can track it for a year and see how quickly it's growing."
Finally, the MMI is expected to concentrate on technical data, including the potential for interoperability between worlds.
Bloomfield seeks a balance between what might be considered a traditional, heavy-handed corporate approach, which would be to impose standards, and an academic tack in which everyone involved talks over the issue, possibly ad infinitum.
"My plan is that you get the data out there on what technologies are being used," he said, "how successfully they are, and how quickly they're growing. It's a very light-handed, market-based way of getting to the standards. If you give people the data, they'll sort it out."
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