Man I tell ya. Poor PC just can seem to get any love from visionaries these days! :) Seems like every time I read an article on the internet, some e-Prophet is proclaiming the death of the PC from either the web, laptops, handheld devices/phones.
Don't get me wrong. I love the idea of having the power of a PC in the palm of my hand. But supplanting PCs in 5 years? Man that's kind of a bold statement there don't ya think? 5 years from now, I'd really love to see a handheld device outperform an Alienware gaming rig (probably manufactured by Alienware anyway). Even though we'll be using handheld devices more extensively 5 years from now, PCs will still be here. I doubt they'll be going anywhere. If we WANT them to go away then innovation for handheld devices had better move pretty darn FAST to supplant them because from what I've seen from my handheld device and others on the market, it's like taking a step back.
5 years from now, handheld devices will be more of a necessity. Supplanting PCs? Nope. Perhaps in another 5-10 years.
How many times have we heard the PC death saga before
Let's see, here are the PC death dealers of the past...
eighties - Apple, Macs, Amiga, Atari ST mid nineties - PDAs especially PalmOS 1996 - Java terminals 1996 - grid computing 1999 - application servers + web based apps ~2000 - game consoles/convergence 2001 - tablet PCs 2005 - Adobe/Macromedia Flash appliances 2006 - smart phones
There has only been one serious challenger to PCs, which was the Commodore 64, but it was a desktop device also, so technically not too divergent.
The real PC killer will eventually be notebooks, which are simply desktops evolved into a smaller, lighter, form factor. But PCs still haven't met their potential maximum benefit to the user. These benefits are numerous like faster processors, more storage and dynamic high resolution video. As long as there is room for improvement the PC will survive because it has less restrictions (space, power, weight, etc.) than other devices. Once PCs reach the point that there isn't anyway to make qualitative improvements to the PC that are perceptible to the user then the end is near.
Video, input devices, computational power still have vast room for improvements, and the less restrictive device will evolve the fastest.
I've often concidered the evolution of the car industry.
Cars started as "horseless buggy" hobby toys then evolved into general consumer products. Early drivers had pretty good idea of what was happening under the hood with the car geeks having a detailed understanding. Jump from the 50s gear heads to current day and you have most people not knowing how things happen under the hood as long as they leave one location and arrive at another. The gear heads still exist with a detailed understanding of under the hood and they still have the hotrods out at the quarter mile on sundays.
Computers started as hobby toys then evolved into the early consumer product we know today. We have the consumer class of user who wants it to "just work." We have computer equivalents of the 50s gear heads be they hacker, geek, gamer or modder.
I expect in the future we'll see the same distinction as with cars. There will be those models of computer where software/hardware is closely integrated for a specific function set and regular users won't care how it functions under the hood. There will also be the segment that caters to the Gear Head class of computer user who wants to know all details and will build a custom rig part by part.
The computer isn't going away but it will evolve to be more of an Information Utility for those who just want to turn it on and see new email arrive.
I love how these crack inspired predictions make it to these forums and there are actually people who believe what they are reading, death of the PC? Are you craaaazy?
People said the same thing about the horse and buggy when the automobile came out. The car did in fact obsolete the horse and buggy, yet the horse and buggy survive but in a different role.
This guy is a true Visionary. Wonder if he was using his laptop or phone for the presentation, haha. In India the phone market is growing faster because phones are dirt cheap. Also applying this master's logic in India the two wheeler market is growing faster then four wheelers, I predict death of four wheelers, haha. This guy is so funny.
Why do I have to end up with a phone that uses the internet, plays music, watch videos and sends email... WHY!!!! when all I want is somthing to store phone numbers and make phone calls. I went to the phone store and asked why the guy look up while sending a text message and started cracking up laughing at ME! I told him I would pay the same price with less features and he coluld not realize that I was willing to pay money for simplicity. Man this world is reall getting confusing and I really hate it. Besides my fingers are too big to sit there pressing little itty bitty keys when I have mor inportant things to do. Should I mention also all that phone SPAM comming our way... Nah!
Foldable screens? Why? If televisions/LCDs/Plasma screens become more ubiquitous, why would you need to carry a screen around with you? Your phone would be the wireless hub for all your peripherals. Set your phone/computer down on the coffee table, pick up your wireless keyboard, turn on the wireless TV and connect wirelessly to phone and you have a regular desktop without having a desktop! The question is, how much power, memory, and utility can they fit in a phone? Is there a limit?
Yes there is. It is called radio frequency interference. That is when your keyboard does not work because your next door neighbor is typing on his keyboard. That is why TV remote controls went to infrared instead of radio. Not only that, with an integrated system like bluetooth, privacy goes away. I love bluetooth. I have a bluetooth headset just so I can listen in on people using their cell phones.
>...the server, the desktop, the laptop, and the various handhelds have all developed on their own. They will continue to develop on their own. Imagine typing this on a keyboard even the size of the Sidekick; or staring into a 3-inch screen for more than 30 minutes. Or, running a network - even at home - from a phone. ...... As more and more apps are web-enabled with local phone memory storage on increasingly dense SD card memory volumes, and as someone else pointed out, it could be a possibility, if the smart-phone was BT-connected to a earpiece with microphone and eye-screen with a projected virtual viewscreen of 1028 X 840, and either a flat-surface projected virtual keyboard or also BT-connected flexible rubber-mat keyboard. Another possibility is an interface similar to the tech used in movie MinorityReport used by TomCruise's character, actual real tech. With all that in mind, the only big shortcoming of a system like that would be the power requirements such as how to keep it charged when at the office or home. If such a system with those capabilities emerged, it could well revolutionize how we compute, especially now with the Wi-Max (802.16ae) and Wireless USB(802.11n)coming out into commercial markets.
The Symbian OS is such a failure. I'm amazed they have the guts to make false, silly predicitons. I predict the PC will have a roll for the foreseeable future because of the reliability and choice provided by the PC platform.
Even he has said that the future PC is the cellphone. You just dock the phone into docking stations at work and home.
My take is that all you really need is a browser and then you can run weblications and save your work to a server.
This model is better than a big clunky white box and spinning disk to store all your files and run applications and viruses.
I am already migrating my business to use weblications. I run a number of websites and my business website uses the "Bring your own domain" service from Google. I use Google docs, calendar, talk, and other services too.
Admittedly I still rely on a PC for running applications for designing websites and graphics, but once that function can be done via weblications, I will be application free. When that happens I will be able to run my business 100% through a browser. All I need then is access to a browser, whether that be on a cell phone, PC, Cyber Cafe, whatever.
Then I will not have to lug around a laptop to access my files and programs.
What we have to remember is this: Computers number in the millions, cellphones number in the billions.
That alone will create a shift. Innovation will focus more in a market with billions than one with millions.
While its hard to imagine the PC (desktop/laptop) disappearing from daily life, I suppose it may be possible (and perhaps even useful) for those who are on the go for most of the day.
However, I would not wish to be the gamer or office worker trying to use a phone keypad and screen to type letters, create graphics etc etc.
All of this reminds me of refrigerators with internet access and phoning up your air conditioner to turn it on. Cute, maybe useful but really only appealing to a very small portion of the 'online' community.
They make the PDA powerful enough to run most applications ie a PC replacement with:
1) large screens. forget about small but highres LCD's. Most people need a >12" monitor for daily work. It can have a video out interface or even a projector.
2) ergonomically sound interfaces. And I mean a full sized keyboard and a mouse. There are blue tooth devices for these now.
Better yet:
1) Processor, Main Memory and Flash Memories are upgradable! If we can upgrade the devices like how we do PC's but this time by simply taking out these components via a 'slot' that would be really cool!
2) We can choose what OS to use!
Anyway, sounds like I'm discribing my laptop.. until then my PDA will largely just still be my Personal Digital Assistant.
...install a cellular or satellite modem in your laptop, which already has a large high-res screen, upgradable and customizable.
Or wait a sec...they already do that!
The key problem with the phone is size. They can keep shrinking it smaller and smaller, but it gets to the point where it is no longer functional. I personally couldn't imagine using a pointing device to laboriously type out one letter at a time. So you add a folding keyboard...and joystick, and external display, pretty soon you're packing around a whole laptop system, except it's in twenty different pieces, each autonomous and so necessarily expensive.
The only possibility is holographic, projected or virtual keyboards, input devices and displays. This would negate the need for the large apparatus which inevitably turn the PDA into a crappy notebook, and make it a viable alternative. But, is this the transformation of a laptop into a phone, or the compression of a laptop with the inclusion of a modem? Guess that depends on who does it first.
Silly attempt at positioning. Symbian should know better by now. Don't pander. It is an insult to a very sophisticated consumer base. PC form factors have changed since the late 70s, yes. But the server, the desktop, the laptop, and the various handhelds have all developed on their own. They will continue to develop on their own. Imagine typing this on a keyboard even the size of the Sidekick; or staring into a 3-inch screen for more than 30 minutes. Or, running a network - even at home - from a phone. Keep your day job (developing an outstanding OS) and try not to gaze too hard into that crystal ball of yours; I predict they don't work too well.
I think the position may be somewhat overstated but I am a firm believer that the cellphone is set to become one of the big drivers on the Internet. As more of our information goes online we will use multiple devices to access our information.
The desktop is heading for oblivion. Laptops will become the PC device of choice. PC use will be for "heavy duty" tasks, such as music and video editing, application development and graphics work with our data beiing synchronized on our network drive. The cellphone will become the access device primarily because of its role as our constant companion.
I have addressed the implications of this in my blog at <a href="http://ekive.blogspot.com">ekive.blogspot.com</a>
Cell phone already surpasses PC as dominant computing platform
The cell phone is already the dominant computing platform in the world. Worldwide there are 2.3 billion cell phone users, 1.8 billion of which have some sort of data capability in addition to voice. By contrast, there are only 490 million households with a PC. In both emerging markets and the high end of developed markets, the cell phone is becoming the primary method of accessing data.
In Korea, where mobile broadband is ubiquitous, we hear this kind of comment from businessmen: "My life has changed because of mobile broadband. It's essential to my daily business and my personal life. Even in the office I have instant access to almost any information or service without having to sit at my desk."
As the US high speed cellular network catches up to Korea, Japan and parts of Europe, we'll see the behavior changes in the US that are already obvious in Asia. Americans are used to doing things on the PC that are done elsewhere on mobile phones, so we tend to be a little blind to the changes that are happening.
There's some other interesting perspectives on this subject at <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.cheskin.com/blog/blog/archives/000851.html" target="_newWindow">http://www.cheskin.com/blog/blog/archives/000851.html</a>
to try to design a program on a 2 inch screen. Think of how much fun it will be to edit photographs when you can't even tell if the picturecwas taken day or night. And watching video or listening to audio? Wow, how wonderful to go from a 20 inch monitor to a 2 inch monitor and from my 6.1 channel sound system with a subwoofer sporting a 4 inch voice coil down to some really neat ear buds! Yep! The PC is dead! NOT!!!!!
The fact that I'm not typing this on my 'net pc' like all the pundits were predicting 10 years ago pretty much invalidates these kinds of predictions of the death of the PC.
Ahh come on!! Just trying to garner market share with bravado LOL
You would have to fairly clued out to not know that technological advancements are changing are life very rapidly. So hardware is getting faster and smaller,... and?
Sociologically speaking, the lowered self esteem of "fan-girls" and "gladhands" finds ready comfort in the existential realm of virtual connectivity. So having the power to bring entertainment systems, personal communications devices and computing devices everywhere is a given and feeds the unnatural, poor personal development habits of these co-dependants.
When it is time for entertainment I seek the refuge of my 10' projector screen, and 3200rms 7.4 DTS-ES DD-EX computer system - audio tracks, dvds and pc games are an overwhelming experience.
Right now screens are small, and I can not possible imagine glaring into a 2" screen for my entertainment and know it is but a mere status symbol - a fashion statement to be able to flip out an audio or video on some miniscule device.
Ahh come on!! Just trying to garner market share with bravado LOL
You would have to fairly clued out to not know that technological advancements are changing are life very rapidly. So hardware is getting faster and smaller,... and?
Sociologically speaking, the lowered self esteem of "fan-girls" and "gladhands" finds ready comfort in the existential realm of virtual connectivity. So having the power to bring entertainment systems, personal communications devices and computing devices everywhere is a given and feeds the unnatural, poor personal development habits of these co-dependants.
When it is time for entertainment I seek the refuge of my 10' projector screen, and 3200rms 7.4 DTS-ES DD-EX computer system - audio tracks, dvds and pc games are an overwhelming experience.
Right now screens are small, and I can not possibly imagine glaring into a 2" screen for my entertainment and know it is but a mere status symbol - a fashion statement to be able to flip out an audio or video on some miniscule device.
Yes the mobile phones are penetrating at much faster rate than the PC penitration. The world is changing very fast with the younger and comming generation not much worried about the past but look to the present and the future. Hence historical data analysis would also slowly be a past without much value. This would also lead to datawarehousing down trend and comming executives would only want the querrying on the current data. This can be well satisfied by the mobile tecnology devices like the mobile phones of the future. A R Patel
As mobile devices get more powerful, so will PC's... I don't see how anyone can even think pc's will die. I think that pc's will evolve into home entertainment and become our tv's and dvd palyers and everything will be done through the internet, such as downloading movies and saving them to your pc's(which is your tv). Pretty much you can do all this stuff now, but in the future it will become more the norm.
Manage updates with the Download App
Don't get me wrong. I love the idea of having the power of a PC in the palm of my hand. But supplanting PCs in 5 years? Man that's kind of a bold statement there don't ya think? 5 years from now, I'd really love to see a handheld device outperform an Alienware gaming rig (probably manufactured by Alienware anyway). Even though we'll be using handheld devices more extensively 5 years from now, PCs will still be here. I doubt they'll be going anywhere. If we WANT them to go away then innovation for handheld devices had better move pretty darn FAST to supplant them because from what I've seen from my handheld device and others on the market, it's like taking a step back.
5 years from now, handheld devices will be more of a necessity. Supplanting PCs? Nope. Perhaps in another 5-10 years.
eighties - Apple, Macs, Amiga, Atari ST
mid nineties - PDAs especially PalmOS
1996 - Java terminals
1996 - grid computing
1999 - application servers + web based apps
~2000 - game consoles/convergence
2001 - tablet PCs
2005 - Adobe/Macromedia Flash appliances
2006 - smart phones
There has only been one serious challenger to PCs, which was the Commodore 64, but it was a desktop device also, so technically not too divergent.
The real PC killer will eventually be notebooks, which are simply desktops evolved into a smaller, lighter, form factor. But PCs still haven't met their potential maximum benefit to the user. These benefits are numerous like faster processors, more storage and dynamic high resolution video. As long as there is room for improvement the PC will survive because it has less restrictions (space, power, weight, etc.) than other devices. Once PCs reach the point that there isn't anyway to make qualitative improvements to the PC that are perceptible to the user then the end is near.
Video, input devices, computational power still have vast room for improvements, and the less restrictive device will evolve the fastest.
Daniel
Cars started as "horseless buggy" hobby toys then evolved into general consumer products. Early drivers had pretty good idea of what was happening under the hood with the car geeks having a detailed understanding. Jump from the 50s gear heads to current day and you have most people not knowing how things happen under the hood as long as they leave one location and arrive at another. The gear heads still exist with a detailed understanding of under the hood and they still have the hotrods out at the quarter mile on sundays.
Computers started as hobby toys then evolved into the early consumer product we know today. We have the consumer class of user who wants it to "just work." We have computer equivalents of the 50s gear heads be they hacker, geek, gamer or modder.
I expect in the future we'll see the same distinction as with cars. There will be those models of computer where software/hardware is closely integrated for a specific function set and regular users won't care how it functions under the hood. There will also be the segment that caters to the Gear Head class of computer user who wants to know all details and will build a custom rig part by part.
The computer isn't going away but it will evolve to be more of an Information Utility for those who just want to turn it on and see new email arrive.
automobile came out. The car did in fact obsolete the horse and
buggy, yet the horse and buggy survive but in a different role.
Have a nice day!
As more and more apps are web-enabled with local phone memory storage on increasingly dense SD card memory volumes, and as someone else pointed out, it could be a possibility, if the smart-phone was BT-connected to a earpiece with microphone and eye-screen with a projected virtual viewscreen of 1028 X 840, and either a flat-surface projected virtual keyboard or also BT-connected flexible rubber-mat keyboard. Another possibility is an interface similar to the tech used in movie MinorityReport used by TomCruise's character, actual real tech. With all that in mind, the only big shortcoming of a system like that would be the power requirements such as how to keep it charged when at the office or home. If such a system with those capabilities emerged, it could well revolutionize how we compute, especially now with the Wi-Max (802.16ae) and Wireless USB(802.11n)coming out into commercial markets.
My take is that all you really need is a browser and then you can run weblications and save your work to a server.
This model is better than a big clunky white box and spinning disk to store all your files and run applications and viruses.
I am already migrating my business to use weblications. I run a number of websites and my business website uses the "Bring your own domain" service from Google. I use Google docs, calendar, talk, and other services too.
Admittedly I still rely on a PC for running applications for designing websites and graphics, but once that function can be done via weblications, I will be application free. When that happens I will be able to run my business 100% through a browser. All I need then is access to a browser, whether that be on a cell phone, PC, Cyber Cafe, whatever.
Then I will not have to lug around a laptop to access my files and programs.
What we have to remember is this:
Computers number in the millions, cellphones number in the billions.
That alone will create a shift. Innovation will focus more in a market with billions than one with millions.
However, I would not wish to be the gamer or office worker trying to use a phone keypad and screen to type letters, create graphics etc etc.
All of this reminds me of refrigerators with internet access and phoning up your air conditioner to turn it on. Cute, maybe useful but really only appealing to a very small portion of the 'online' community.
1) large screens. forget about small but highres LCD's. Most people need a >12" monitor for daily work. It can have a video out interface or even a projector.
2) ergonomically sound interfaces. And I mean a full sized keyboard and a mouse. There are blue tooth devices for these now.
Better yet:
1) Processor, Main Memory and Flash Memories are upgradable! If we can upgrade the devices like how we do PC's but this time by simply taking out these components via a 'slot' that would be really cool!
2) We can choose what OS to use!
Anyway, sounds like I'm discribing my laptop.. until then my PDA will largely just still be my Personal Digital Assistant.
Or wait a sec...they already do that!
The key problem with the phone is size. They can keep shrinking it smaller and smaller, but it gets to the point where it is no longer functional. I personally couldn't imagine using a pointing device to laboriously type out one letter at a time. So you add a folding keyboard...and joystick, and external display, pretty soon you're packing around a whole laptop system, except it's in twenty different pieces, each autonomous and so necessarily expensive.
The only possibility is holographic, projected or virtual keyboards, input devices and displays. This would negate the need for the large apparatus which inevitably turn the PDA into a crappy notebook, and make it a viable alternative.
But, is this the transformation of a laptop into a phone, or the compression of a laptop with the inclusion of a modem?
Guess that depends on who does it first.
They have been predicting the death of the PC for 30 years now.
Wasn't it just 8 years ago that WebTv was going to be the death of the PC. What happened to that?
believer that the cellphone is set to become one of the big
drivers on the Internet. As more of our information goes online
we will use multiple devices to access our information.
The desktop is heading for oblivion. Laptops will become the PC
device of choice. PC use will be for "heavy duty" tasks, such as
music and video editing, application development and graphics
work with our data beiing synchronized on our network drive.
The cellphone will become the access device primarily because
of its role as our constant companion.
I have addressed the implications of this in my blog at <a href="http://ekive.blogspot.com">ekive.blogspot.com</a>
In Korea, where mobile broadband is ubiquitous, we hear this kind of comment from businessmen: "My life has changed because of mobile broadband. It's essential to my daily business and my personal life. Even in the office I have instant access to almost any information or service without having to sit at my desk."
As the US high speed cellular network catches up to Korea, Japan and parts of Europe, we'll see the behavior changes in the US that are already obvious in Asia. Americans are used to doing things on the PC that are done elsewhere on mobile phones, so we tend to be a little blind to the changes that are happening.
There's some other interesting perspectives on this subject at <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.cheskin.com/blog/blog/archives/000851.html" target="_newWindow">http://www.cheskin.com/blog/blog/archives/000851.html</a>
Yep! The PC is dead! NOT!!!!!
Sociologically speaking, the lowered self esteem of "fan-girls" and "gladhands" finds ready comfort in the existential realm of virtual connectivity. So having the power to bring entertainment systems, personal communications devices and computing devices everywhere is a given and feeds the unnatural, poor personal development habits of these co-dependants.
When it is time for entertainment I seek the refuge of my 10' projector screen, and 3200rms 7.4 DTS-ES DD-EX computer system - audio tracks, dvds and pc games are an overwhelming experience.
Right now screens are small, and I can not possible imagine glaring into a 2" screen for my entertainment and know it is but a mere status symbol - a fashion statement to be able to flip out an audio or video on some miniscule device.
It is only a tool growing into a fashion toy.
Sociologically speaking, the lowered self esteem of "fan-girls" and "gladhands" finds ready comfort in the existential realm of virtual connectivity. So having the power to bring entertainment systems, personal communications devices and computing devices everywhere is a given and feeds the unnatural, poor personal development habits of these co-dependants.
When it is time for entertainment I seek the refuge of my 10' projector screen, and 3200rms 7.4 DTS-ES DD-EX computer system - audio tracks, dvds and pc games are an overwhelming experience.
Right now screens are small, and I can not possibly imagine glaring into a 2" screen for my entertainment and know it is but a mere status symbol - a fashion statement to be able to flip out an audio or video on some miniscule device.
It is only a tool growing into a fashion toy.
The world is changing very fast with the younger and comming generation not much worried about the past but look to the present and the future.
Hence historical data analysis would also slowly be a past without much value. This would also lead to datawarehousing down trend and comming executives would only want the querrying on the current data. This can be well satisfied by the mobile tecnology devices like the mobile phones of the future.
A R Patel