More than a year with the same iPhone is just too long, apparently.
Survey results from RBC Capital and ChangeWave released today find that two-thirds of existing iPhone users are likely to buy the iPhone 5 when it becomes available, an event of nearly cosmic proportions that many people expect to happen sometime this fall. The current iPhone 4 has only been on the market for 15 months.
Overall, 31 percent of the 2,200 people surveyed in early August--consumers who have any type of mobile phone, or none at all--said they are likely to buy the new iPhone, up from 25 percent of respondents who said they were likely to buy the iPhone 4 in advance of its launch.
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The survey also found much love for the iPad, with 26 percent likely to buy the iPad 2 in the back-to-school season. There's not much affection left over for other tablets, with 85 percent identifying Apple as their tablet maker of choice--Samsung and its Galaxy Tab are a very distant second place, at 4 percent. That's a silver medal hardly worth winning.
In response to the survey results, RBC's Mike Abramsky now thinks Apple could move 12.5 million more iPads in the fourth quarter (up from an earlier prediction of 10.5 million), 19.5 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, and 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of next year (that's up from an earlier estimate of 24.4 million.) Somebody better send another case of Red Bull over to the folks at the FoxConn factories; it's going to be a long winter in Shenzhen...