Underexposed

LAS VEGAS--Digital SLRs showed strong growth last year, but the sales surge will begin to moderate, according to a new report by the Camera and Imaging Products Association.

SLR cameras are bulky and expensive, yet they're also responsive, work better in dim conditions, and are flexible because photographers can change lenses. Year-over-year sales of digital SLRs grew 42 percent to 7.5 million units worldwide in 2007, CIPA said this week.

By contrast, the SLR growth rate will dip to 22 percent in 2008, 13 percent in 2009, and 9 percent in 2010, the CIPA predicted. That corresponds to digital SLR shipments of 9.1 million, 10.3 million, and 11.2 million units, respectively.

It's been tough forecasting camera shipments because purchasing patterns have changed, so analysts have had to push back the year camera shipments are expected to peak. The old days of one camera per family are fading, replaced by the one-camera-per-family-member era. And some people buy multiple cameras for different jobs--tossing into a purse, traveling, or shooting their children's sports events.

The market for compact digital cameras also will grow, CIPA said, but it's a significant notch below SLR rates. It grew 26 percent to 92.9 million units in 2007 and is expected to grow 11 percent to 102.8 million this year, 7 percent to 110.1 million in 2009, and 5 percent to 115.3 million in 2010.

The total digital camera market topped 100 million for the first time in 2007--barely--with sales of 100.4 million. Expect 111.9 million for 2008, 120.4 million in 2009, and 126.5 million in 2010.

The CIPA findings made the rounds here at the Photo Marketing Association trade show, where camera makers salivate over the prospect of millions of high-end SLRs being sold. Even if growth rates are tapering off, they're still positive. And the fact that SLRs today typically cost at least $700 means serious money is on the table.

CIPA also shared statistics for SLR lenses, and there, too, growth rates are slowing. A total of 12.5 million were sold in 2007. That number is forecast to jump to 14.7 million this year, to 16.3 million in 2009, and 17.4 million in 2010.

BURLINGAME, Calif.--Unexpected growth in the 2007 digital camera market has delayed the day when shipments start shrinking, but plunging prices already are a reality.

So reported Ed Lee, director of InfoTrends, at the analyst firm's Digital Imaging conference here Wednesday. The average digital camera price is projected to slip from $298 in 2006 to $191 in 2011 in North America.

"Price declines are happening much more rapidly than shipments are growing," Lee said. Those price declines, though, "probably are one of the reasons sales are up."

In the compact camera segment, average prices are projected to drop from $262 in 2006 to $163 in 2011. Digital SLR (single-lens reflex) cameras, which offer higher performance and interchangeable lenses but are bulkier and costlier, are projected to drop from $966 to $507 over the same period. "There are a lot more affordable models," Lee said.

InfoTrends had projected sales of digital cameras would peak in 2007 or 2008; it's pushed that back to 2010, Lee said. "We've seen this year a nice resurgence of sales," he said.

One reason: digital cameras are becoming a personal item rather than a family item.

"We're seeing a trend toward one camera, one person," Lee said. "In the past you had film cameras being a household item and everybody shared that camera. But with advent of cell phones and MP3 players, people like to have their own individual products."

The average number of cameras per household in the U.S. rose from 1.4 last year to 1.5 this year, he said.

Among other juicy stats:

• People are taking a lot of photos--up from about 50 billion a year in 2007 to about 60 billion in 2011.

• 2006 was the year the bulk of the digital camera market switched over from first-time buyers to repeat buyers. In 2007, 73 percent were repeat buyers, and in 2011, it should be 97 percent.

• The average number of photos taken per year was 415 for single folks and 514 for people married or living together but with no children. Throw a baby into the mix, though, and the shutters start snapping. Those with a child under age one take 668 photos a year on average.

• There's a correlation between a camera's megapixel count and its price, but it's imperfect, because sales now depend on other factors, too, such as image stabilization, face detection, a larger LCD and a longer zoom range.

"It's not about megapixels anymore. It's about the total package of a camera," Lee said. "In reality, a 6- or 8-megapixel camera is going to meet the needs of most consumers out there today."

Shipments of digital cameras jumped 22 percent in the second quarter compared with the year earlier, and growth for coming months likely will outpace earlier expectations, analyst firm IDC said Thursday.

"IDC expects to raise its forecast for the CY2007 year due to this continued, stronger-than-expected growth," analyst Christopher Chute said in a statement.

Consumers are replacing earlier cameras with new models that stabilize images to counteract camera shake, but more importantly, they're also responding to lower prices, he said.

Canon remained the No. 1 seller, with 26 percent of shipments in the second quarter. Sony was No. 2 with 18 percent share and Kodak No. 3 with 12 percent. Samsung "rocketed to the No. 4 position" with 11 percent, bumping Nikon and others. Nikon, though, "continues to do very well with digital SLRs," Chute said.

Although Kodak took the No. 3 spot, its shipments declined 15 percent, IDC said.