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Train Wreck

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August 22, 2008 6:05 AM PDT

Wonder why everything isn't speech controlled?

by Steve Tobak
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Last November, I wrote a post titled "Top 10 technology flops." One of the 10 was speech recognition. Judging by the feedback I got from all over the Web, you'd think I'd said Apple was a flop or Bush was a great president.

What I meant, at the time, was that I was disappointed that we're not rid of all the keyboards, buttons, and remote controls by now. So I did some research and discovered that speech technology is indeed proliferating in some industries: defense, medical, call centers, and rudimentary capability for cell phones, edutainment, and high-end automobiles.

That said, I don't really care that American Airlines can recognize my voice responses on the phone. The only speech application that actually benefits me on a day-to-day basis is on my cell phone, and that's pretty basic stuff.

For the most part, we're still banging away on computer keyboards and drowning in a sea of proprietary consumer electronics devices and remote controls.

(Credit: Nuance)

And now I know why. When it comes to speech technology, one company is holding just about all the cards: Nuance Communications.

Courtesy of dozens of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) over the past 13 years, Nuance now owns much of the speech technology on planet Earth. The company boasts a $3.5 billion market cap on annual sales that will likely top $800 million this fiscal year but, remarkably, has never been profitable. I can see why. Nuance has been so busy acquiring companies it hasn't had a chance to worry about a little thing like profitability. ... Read more

August 18, 2008 10:28 AM PDT

Making sense of reorgs

by Steve Tobak
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Many technology industry executives are surprisingly inept when it comes to planning and executing reorganizations effectively.

One of the most evident signs of dysfunctional executive management is reorg-du-jour (reorganization of the day, for those who didn't take French in high school). Nothing is more disruptive or counterproductive to the effectiveness of an organization than frequent reorganizations.

Not to pick on Yahoo, but the frequency, if not the execution, of its notorious reorgs has almost certainly contributed to its talent exodus and loss of productivity at a time when it can scarcely afford it.

That said, reorganizations go hand-in-hand with changes in corporate and product objectives and strategy that are often implemented to meet an ever-changing competitive landscape. To that extent, they can be critical to business success, if done correctly.

When do reorganizations make sense and when are they frivolous and disruptive? How can they be executed to minimize productivity disruption and worker frustration? Here's an insider's perspective on organizational change in two parts. First we deal with "how," then we deal with "when" and "why." ... Read more

June 16, 2008 8:47 AM PDT

Borland: A big lesson

by Steve Tobak
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Nestled in the redwood trees of Northern California's Santa Cruz Mountains is one of the most beautiful office facilities you'll ever see. The impeccably landscaped grounds include ponds, tennis courts, a swimming pool, an auditorium, a fitness center, a large outdoor eating area, and loads of light throughout the open-style architecture.

The facility even has its own exit-entrance ramp off the northbound side of highway 17.

Enterprise Technology Centre (former Borland headquarters)

(Credit: loopnet.com)

Philippe Kahn, the French-born CEO of Borland International, spent nearly $120 million of capital to build the Scotts Valley campus for Borland's 1,200 employees. When the new corporate headquarters opened in 1993, it was full to capacity. It was all downhill from there, but I don't think Kahn knew it at the time.

You see, in September of 1991, Kahn acquired Ashton-Tate for $440 million. To say the merger would prove to be the biggest mistake of his career would be a gross understatement. It was disastrous, as both company's product lines stalled and Ashton-Tate's dBASE database management program completely missed the transition to Windows.

... Read more
February 12, 2008 9:35 AM PST

When Yahoo says no, it means yes

by Steve Tobak
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Yes, I know Yahoo rejected Microsoft's bid of $31 per share. But that's just standard negotiating strategy in the world of mergers and acquisitions.

Sure, Microsoft's offer - a 60% premium over the price of Yahoo's stock at the time - was designed, not only to get Yahoo's board's attention, but to back them into a corner. If no other suitors emerge - as I predicted in a prior post - it's an offer Yahoo's board can't refuse without risking shareholder litigation or revolt.

But that doesn't mean Microsoft didn't leave itself any wiggle room, and Yahoo's board knows that. They also know that this is Microsoft's big chance, perhaps its only chance, to jump to number 2 in internet search and advertising and challenge Google. That means Yahoo has some negotiating power. ... Read more

October 12, 2007 6:05 AM PDT

Why mergers fail

by Steve Tobak
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Mergers and acquisitions, M&A, business development, strategic development, corporate development, there are lots of names for the business of acquiring companies. They all sound important, even exciting. But whoever said, "may you live in exciting times," didn't necessarily mean that to be a prophecy of good things to come.

On the contrary, if you're like most investors, employees or executives, it's more of a curse. You see, in the corporate world, exciting usually means risky. And there's probably nothing riskier or more prone to failure than merging with another company.

I can cite lots of studies, but anyone in the business knows that most big mergers fail. Moreover, companies that have demonstrated a competency for acquiring companies--like Cisco and Broadcom, for example--are few and far between.

Just to be clear, for purposes of this post, we'll use the terms merger and acquisition interchangeably. The difference is primarily related to accounting, and nobody gives two beans about that...except the accountants.

So, what exactly is a failed merger? I define it two ways. Qualitatively, whatever the companies had in mind that caused them to merge in the first place doesn't work out that way in the end. Quantitatively, shareholders suffer because operating results deteriorate instead of improve.

Here's a list of 10 notorious failed mergers that I've evaluated in one way or another: AOL/Time Warner, HP/Compaq, Alcatel/Lucent, Daimler Benz/Chrysler, Excite/@Home, JDS Uniphase/SDL, Mattel/The Learning Company, Borland/Ashton Tate, Novell/WordPerfect, and National Semiconductor/Fairchild Semiconductor.

Some failed so spectacularly that the combined company went down the tubes, others resulted in the demise of the executive(s) that masterminded them, some later reversed themselves, and others were just plain dumb ideas that were doomed from the start.

In my mind, the two big questions are: Why merge to begin with? Why do mergers fail?

Companies merge when, for one reason or another, their strategic plans indicate they should. I know that sounds trite, but there are too many permutations to go any deeper.

That being the case, there must also be operating synergies between the two companies. In a nutshell, that means the whole will be financially healthier than the sum of the parts. Said differently, at some point after the merger is complete and the companies are integrated with redundant functions eliminated, shareholder value should increase. It's as simple as that...theoretically.

I experienced one merger firsthand: National Semiconductor's acquisition of Cyrix. On the surface, the deal seemed to make sense. National needed Cyrix's microprocessor technology to realize its strategic vision of becoming a system-on-a-chip company. Cyrix needed National's manufacturing technology to effectively compete with Intel.

However, once you got down beneath the surface, well, let's just say there were holes in the strategy so big you could drive a truckload of MBAs through them. This is in hindsight, mind you. Some of it I saw coming, some of it I didn't.

First, National's own strategy was flawed, merger or not. The market for its Cyrix-based system-on-a-chip products never really materialized.

Second, National didn't anticipate what competing head-on with Intel would do to its own operating results.

Third, when Cyrix's designs were produced in National's fabs, the chips didn't perform as hoped. That's about the most even-handed way I can put it.

As if that wasn't enough, National was probably too heavy-handed with its integration strategy. The two companies were culturally incompatible, and most of Cyrix's top engineers quit when their retention agreements expired.

The result was ugly. National's operating results went from black to red immediately following the merger, and the combined company continued to hemorrhage red ink until National sold most of Cyrix. A year and a half and more than $1 billion in cumulative losses and write-offs later, National was back to normal.

It's important to note that the usual three-month due diligence process didn't uncover any of the potential flaws in the deal. That's because merger due diligence processes typically have only one goal--to shield executives and directors from shareholder litigation. That, the companies did successfully. Shareholders lost their class action suit.

In summary, the planets have to align for a merger to be successful. In other words, for every way to do a merger right, there are probably 10 ways to do it wrong.

Here are my top 10 most common, preventable merger failure modes. One is enough to spell doom, but the more the merrier the train wreck:

1. Flawed corporate strategy for either or both companies
2. One company sugarcoats the truth, the other buys a PowerPoint pitch
3. Sub-optimum integration strategy for the situation
4. Cultural misfit, loss of key employees after retention agreements are up
5. Acquiring company's management team inexperienced at M&A
6. Flawed assumptions in synergies calculation
7. Ineffective corporate governance, plain and simple
8. Two desperate companies merge to form one big desperate company
9. CEO of one or both companies sells board and shareholders a bill of goods
10. An impulse buy or panic sell gets shoved down the board's throat

Last word
From a corporate governance standpoint, all significant mergers should be scrutinized by some really smart, experienced and disinterested (and therefore objective--this is key) people. Why boards don't do that as a matter of course I have no idea.

The burden of proof for mergers to make sense should be as high as their risk, their failure rate and the pain they inevitably cost shareholders.

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About Train Wreck

Steve Tobak is a marketing consultant and former chip industry executive. Train Wreck provides insight into dysfunctional corporate behavior, among other things. When he's not airing the industry's dirty laundry, Steve likes to hang around the house, make believe he's working, and drive his wife crazy. Find out more at www.invisor.net or email Steve at trainwreck@invisor.net. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.

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