NEW YORK--Web pioneer and conference honcho Tim O'Reilly warned the audience at the Web 2.0 Expo here on Tuesday afternoon that he thinks "we're headed into another ugly time." Namely, everybody is just being really nasty to each other. And it makes his hippie soul hurt.
For example, Rupert "Dr. Evil" Murdoch keeps threatening to pull News Corp.'s pay wall-guarded content from Google, perhaps offering an exclusive deal to another search engine for one hundred billion dollars (give or take a few bucks).
Those ubiquitous URL-shortening toolbars are throwing Web addresses behind a cloak of invisibility, O'Reilly said, and they "don't let you navigate freely like the Web used to work." With Google's Chrome hurling itself into the mix, the browser and operating-system wars are starting to look less "Mean Girls" and more "Aliens vs. Predator."
But O'Reilly's attitude isn't "bring it on, and get me a large popcorn with extra butter, while you're at it." Rather, he hinted that at least in some cases, he's willing to embrace Google as a big, cuddly, benevolent dictator in the midst of it all. It's "a monopoly that's a service of value to users," he said, adding that generally, when Google makes a product with the primary goal of one-upping the competition--Knol vs. Wikipedia, Checkout vs. PayPal--it's not a success.
That's probably because, at least right now, among all the giant robots stomping about the series of tubes, Google is the one that most resembles O'Reilly's vision of the "open Web." In a blog post prior to his speech, he predicted that Microsoft could take over this role. Or not. Either way, he insisted that "it's time for developers to take a stand."
Setting off this kind of electric shock in the Web's punditocracy is a great way to drum up attention and newsworthiness that doesn't have anything to do with philosophizing about the recession, extolling the possibilities of the real-time streaming Web, or predicting which dot-com figurehead is going to be the most plastered at South by Southwest this year. Thank goodness! That stuff was getting so boring!
And O'Reilly's rallying cry has already gathered reactions. Barbarian Group executive Rick Webb, for one, posted a colorful retaliatory blog post, in which he said that "setting aside the 'boo hoo, the Internet is becoming a bunch of walled gardens' arguments, when rational people have conversations about how to make the Web actually usable and not 95 percent piracy, spam, and fraud, almost every discussion starts with the proposition that there is no other realistic option but to chuck the whole thing and start over."
Of course, the Web should be in a state of "war." When have things been any different? It's a hub of innovation, competition, and constant change, and I think we all knew that already. The barrier to entry is low enough so that if there's a glaring problem with something, users will flock to whoever can create a better alternative. In fact, O'Reilly brought that up on Tuesday, when he talked about expensive in-car GPS navigation systems.
"The turn-by-turn directions from TeleAtlas cost $99 [on the iPhone], but Google is giving it away for free. This is a natural kind of extension for Google. I don't think Google is being evil here by being disruptive," O'Reilly said. "That's a massive user win, even though it is incredibly damaging to some existing companies and some existing business models. When Google offers free speech recognition, [that would be] an amazing win."
Is that legitimate innovation? Yes. But let's hope the "win" doesn't stop there. If Google manages to throw a sucker punch to Apple, Microsoft, or whoever else by offering something once-pricey for free, I should hope that the rest of the industry makes sure that it doesn't grow too complacent.
So let's get this straight: monopolies are bad, unless they're "nice" ones on behalf of companies that extol the virtues of Razor scooters, wheatgrass smoothies, and lava lamps. Competition is great, as long as everybody's nice to each other.
Doesn't quite make sense to me. But, hey, it's his show.
Tim O'Reilly speaks at Web 2.0 Expo 2009
(Credit: James Martin/CNET)SAN FRANCISCO--The floor of the exposition hall at this year's Web 2.0 Expo has been a little bit lethargic, to say the least. "It's a lot emptier than last year," said one representative from a social gaming company that had set up a booth. "I think the 'Web 2.0' thing has become a bit of a stigma."
Indeed, these days the term goes hand-in-hand with broken business models and overblown expectations, as much as it does with innovation. With the economy in shambles, attendance at the semiannual conference is down. The show floor is sparser and the speaker lineup less impressive than in years past, and attendees have had to hunt a little harder to find parties after hours.
But conference czar Tim O'Reilly, founder of O'Reilly Media (which co-organized the conference along with TechWeb), said that "Web 2.0" is more relevant than ever.
"Web 2.0 was never intended to be a version number," O'Reilly said in his keynote address on Wednesday afternoon. "It was really a reflection of what happened after the dot-com bust."
Now, he said, the Web is maturing and getting smarter. "The baby that we built with technology is growing up and starting to go to work," he said, mentioning examples like energy metering aggregator AMEE, the Google search application that predicted where the flu would hit next, and iPhone apps that derive search results from voice recognition.
At last spring's Web 2.0 Expo, the market crash was still months off, but the early signs were starting to creep in: venture funding was harder to come by, company launches were growing less frequent, and it was starting to become evident that some of the most-buzzed names in Silicon Valley hadn't produced solid business models yet. Then, O'Reilly's address exhorted the audience to push beyond the Web's trendiest hype machines and start thinking about how to change the world. But now that the rest of the world is searching for answers, he explained, it's time to put that thought to work.
"We thought because of the downturn, because all of us are faced with the idea that maybe those ideas of perpetual increase were going to be a problem, that we might have to do more with less," O'Reilly said. "Maybe there's actually power in less, and that's one of the lessons of the Web...In technology we have this wonderful power of less where we get more for the same amount, and I think we need to start thinking about how we apply Moore's Law to the world's problems."
This year, the power of technological innovation to reach far beyond the Web has already been justified in the election of Barack Obama, which used consumer-grade Web technologies like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube as powerful communication and organization tools: "The way that he used technology to transform politics, the way that he harnessed his audience to do something that was profoundly world-shaping," O'Reilly said on Wednesday. "History's on a different course because of somebody understanding how to apply technology more effectively in a new realm."
The most important part, he concluded, is that it's crucial to keep up that Silicon Valley attitude of positive change for the greater good as it brings its business principles to the rest of the world. Getting too self-serving was what ultimately caused the market collapse this fall, he said. The tech industry has its egos, too, and that's what got us all into trouble the last time around.
"There were a whole lot of people (in the finance industry) who said, 'Wow, I can get a lot for myself here, and the financial system is really a tale of how collective intelligence can go awry. Because, of course, our financial system is also networked collective intelligence and yet it was somehow hijacked by the spammers, the Ponzi schemers, and the people who thought, 'I want to get something for me.'"
"We know what happened," O'Reilly said, showing a slide of the now-famous Twitter outage graphic of a flock of birds attempting to lift a whale above water. "That's the fail whale."
NEW YORK--Tim O'Reilly, founder of O'Reilly Media, is known as a futurist, but his keynote address on Thursday morning at the Web 2.0 Expo was heavy on the realism in the wake of sobering news from Wall Street.
Web 2.0 evangelist Tim O'Reilly addresses the crowd at the last Web 2.0 Expo, in April.
(Credit: Dan Farber/CNET News)"(These are) pretty depressing times in a lot of ways," O'Reilly said in an address that first had looked like it would simply be a starry-eyed discussion of enterprise opportunities for Web 2.0. "And you have to conclude, if you look at the focus of a lot of what you call 'Web 2.0,' the relentless focus on advertising-based consumer models, lightweight applications, we may be living in somewhat of a bubble, and I'm not talking about an investment bubble. (It's) a reality bubble."
Global warming. The U.S. losing its edge in science and technology. A growing income gap. "And what are the best and the brightest working on?" O'Reilly asked, displaying a slide of the popular Facebook application SuperPoke, which invites you to, among other things, "throw sheep" at your friends.
"Do you see a problem here?" he posed, showing another slide of the popular iPhone app "iBeer," which simulates chugging a pint. "You have to ask yourself, are we working on the right things?"
He brought up examples like Google.org, the Omidyar Network, and even small companies that have decided to take on social and political challenges rather than the trendy social-network craze of the week. "Business is the engine of innovation," O'Reilly said. "I really believe in markets, and I believe in the power we all have to build great companies that change things."
As for the financial-services industry, O'Reilly implied that in a big sense, firms had it coming. "If you look at what went wrong on Wall Street, this is an industry that, in its heart, parades a lot of value," he said. "Liquidity in markets is critical. But if you look at the last decade...these Wall Street firms captured a lot more value than they were creating."
There's an inherent irony in what O'Reilly said, given the fact that massive conferences like the Web 2.0 Expo are packed with the trendspeak and hype that birthed SuperPoke-like entertainment, and certainly aren't helping the environment by distributing tons of press kits and swag--not to mention flying in hundreds of attendees in a massive spurt of carbon emissions.
To be fair, O'Reilly Media has been printing fewer event programs and encouraging conference goers to recycle, and it has used carpeting made of post-consumer material.
There is clearly a lot that needs to change, and perhaps the tech industry trend of large-scale conferences is part of it. We'll see whether Silicon Valley's leaders and moguls are willing to do what they think is right, rather than what they think is profitable.
But O'Reilly encouraged the audience to start small, and he offered them their first challenge: register to vote.
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