I have to hand it to fellow analyst Rob Enderle. Way back in August of 2005, he called the high-def format war in a piece titled "Blu-ray Wins or Nothing Does."
Logo of the Blu-ray Disc Association, winner of the high-def disc format war
(Credit: The Blu-ray Disc Association)Then again, he also said in that article that "the more likely outcome is that the market will bypass both products and move to something else," so perhaps he wasn't perfectly prescient.
And come to think of it, a year later (in December 2006) he changed his mind entirely in columns titled "Optical HD Battle May Be Over: HD DVD Wins," "HD DVD Wins," and "Sony Kills Blu-ray."
And in August and even November of 2007, Enderle still believed HD DVD would win.
Well, if Rob Enderle couldn't predict the result, who could? Even just before the Consumer Electronics Show this year, when Warner Bros. Entertainment announced it would stop supporting HD DVD and join the Blu-ray camp, I was still hedging my bets: "Blu-ray wins, HD DVD loses. Probably.")
But when Wal-Mart--the Brünnhilde of modern retailing--took the stage last week to throw its weight behind Blu-ray, everyone knew it was over. And this week, Toshiba--leader of the DVD Forum, which developed HD DVD--officially conceded defeat. The company aims to end production on HD DVD hardware for home theaters as well as PCs by the end of March.
So we can all relax. Right?
Well, for a while, sure. But remember, DVD and Blu-ray were separated by only five or six years, so presumably we're due for yet another format three or four years from now. And a new format means the potential for a new format war.
The basic parameters are easy to predict. As I described last August in "After HD, what's next?" the heir apparent to HDTV is what's called "4K"-- that is, a display resolution with about 4,096 horizontal pixels and 2,160 scan lines. Sony already makes projectors that support this resolution. Red Digital Cinema makes 4K cameras. Director Peter Jackson has made a short film in 4K, and the "Final Cut" of Blade Runner was remastered in 4K.
So 4K is coming, and it isn't far away.
But why should there be a format war?
Well, there's always a format war. There was even a DVD format war, although we're all fortunate that it was resolved well before discs or players hit the market.
Sony will want to lead the transition to 4K, but the DVD Forum will still be around in five years. That's a recipe for a format war right there.
Will it happen? I sure hope not. Our best hope for a lasting peace is that Sony, Toshiba, and the rest of the DVD Forum members settle their differences and start working on the next generation immediately. If you have any influence within these companies, now's the time to start cooperating on technology development. The future won't wait.
Warner Bros. Entertainment may have cast the deciding vote in the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD format war, announcing yesterday-- just before the big Consumer Electronics Show opens in Las Vegas-- that Warner will support Blu-ray exclusively starting in June 2008.
The CES 2008 tote bag, sponsored by Toshiba for HD DVD
(Credit: Peter N. Glaskowsky)I'm at CES, where I've just left the CES Unveiled press event. Although there was a lot of cool stuff in the various booths providing a sneak peek of the CES show floor (all 1.8 million square feet of it)--and I'll be covering some of this cool stuff in future blog posts-- the topic of the evening was the Warner announcement and what it means for the HD DVD camp.
Opinions are mixed as to the immediate effect of the announcement. Some believe the DVD Forum (which manages the HD DVD format) and its member companies should just give up now and accept the inevitable victory of Blu-ray. Others want to wait to see how Blu-ray and HD DVD player and title sales go following the Christmas season, which was fairly successful for both formats. This group argues that if HD DVD titles continue to sell well, perhaps the HD DVD format can hang on and maybe...maybe...eventually triumph.
But Warner is today one of the bigger suppliers of HD DVD titles, and all that ends on May 31 when the company stops distributing in that format. This decision sets a deadline for HD DVD supporters. If they can't show a path to victory by then, they probably never will.
Personally I'm expecting to hear Apple announce its support for Blu-ray in the new Mac Pro and MacBook products coming at MacWorld Expo in 10 days. Actually I expected Apple to throw its weight behind Blu-ray during 2007, but I'm still pretty sure it'll happen.
If Blu-ray wins the format war, Apple will probably gain an edge in the PC war as well, since Microsoft is one of the major supporters of HD DVD. But it's mostly an image thing; Microsoft is only committed to HD DVD for Xbox 360 and not so much for the PC. Shifting the support of the Windows division to Blu-ray would be no big deal, since both formats have virtually identical technical requirements.
Another consequence of a Blu-ray victory--the CES 2008 tote bag, sponsored by Toshiba on behalf of the HD DVD format, is likely to become something of a collector's item...
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