Goldman Sachs' latest IT spending survey is out and it looks a tech-spending recovery is on the way for 2010. To a large extent, the data suggests not so much that spending is dramatically higher, but that it has normalized at pre-recessionary growth rates, rather than contracting as it has over the past several months.
Goldman is cautiously optimistic about 2010 spending, noting that much of it depends on the macro-economic environment driving more business spending. And while most areas will see growth counter to 2009's downward spiral, some areas such as off-shore development will feel significant retraction.
Regardless, the sentiments are positive and dramatically different than Goldman's report from November 2008 where IT spending was in a total death spiral. What a difference a year makes.
A few key points from the report:
- With recessionary buying cycle clearly through the trough, the remaining question centers on the pace of recovery for 2010.
- Infrastructure, application development, and systems integration remain top spending areas, especially as CIOs start to consider newer technologies such as virtualization and cloud computing.
- There is pent-up demand in hardware most notable, positive for storage and server/PC refresh.
- The appetite for offshore services appears to be below trend at current levels.
- HP, NetApp, CommVault, Red Hat, Riverbed, and Salesforce.com are notable names showing positive upward momentum in our latest survey.
In software, Red Hat and Salesforce.com showed strengthened results with VMware and Citrix remaining top of mind, which Goldman believes to be a good indication of internal and external cloud deployments gaining momentum.
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With the launch of Windows 7 many signs point to the fact that Microsoft seems to have gotten its operating system engineering in order. That's obviously good news for its OS business unit and also good news for PC manufacturers and software companies that develop for Windows.
A rising tide of Windows adoption is not a bad thing for the technology industry in economic terms but it doesn't yet do a lot to enhance the way we use computers and applications in our every day lives.
The main problem is that Windows 7 reinforces a desktop centric-paradigm for 93 percent of the market and continues to exert a certain level of misguided design principles in the way the system handles data and file structures. And while it's a giant leap forward in terms of customization, visual effects, and security there is a missed opportunity in the cross-border approach of combining the desktop and cloud services.
Cloud-based applications and storage are still so nascent that Microsoft could jump in and usurp much of the power and market share while shoring up its cloud story for the future. Having the dominant desktop landing pad gives Microsoft a huge advantage over upstarts--even Google and Apple, if it can focus on integrating the services.
Here are a few ways Microsoft could assert its dominant desktop position to compete with Google and Amazon as a cloud player:
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IBM and Canonical, the commercial entity behind Ubuntu Linux, on Tuesday are launching a combined cloud and Linux desktop package designed for Netbooks and low-end PCs.
For those of us still waiting for Linux to hit the desktop, this type of packaging may be exactly how the move from Windows starts to pick up steam.
The IBM Client for Smart Work was first launched in South Africa in September and was initially geared toward emerging markets. IBM found that there was strong interest in the U.S. and other markets that had aging PC infrastructure and little desire for continued Windows upgrades.
The U.S. version of the package contains a number of IBM products including word processing and spreadsheets via Lotus Symphony, e-mail via Lotus Notes or LotusLive iNotes, and collaboration tools from LotusLive.com. As with the previously launched initiative, the package runs on Ubuntu Linux.
Bob Sutor, IBM's vice president of Linux and open source, told me that the target is not a drop-in replacement scenario, but rather something for IT shops that don't want to be stuck in an endless cycle of upgrading desktop operating systems and applications.
This is an interesting development for multiple reasons:
- IBM and Canonical are teaming up to bring Linux to the desktop, offering what could be considered a next-generation thin-client that relies on cloud services but remains based on an actual operating system rather than just running in a Web browser.
- IBM is targeting Windows installations in the co-opetition model the company excels in--effectively insulating itself regardless of who wins the desktop.
- Canonical is building a channel to deliver solutions rather than depend on individuals and organizations to roll their own.
Microsoft's launch party videos have proven to be entertaining to viewers even if not for the reasons for the marketing department had hoped for. There were a great many comments on my post that provided context to their release, but generally speaking most industry-watchers have been confused as to the goals behind the program, questioning the target audience not just for the videos, but for the launch parties as well.
I reached out to Microsoft for comment but they withheld at this time as the videos are apparently just one step in a much larger integrated marketing campaign.
I personally found the most recent video weird, but after thinking through things a bit I think this is a case of a good idea hampered by poor execution. The videos are well-done and professional and try to connect with consumers in a humanistic tone. The fact that it feels like you stumbled into a shiny-happy Windows world filled with sit-com throwaways is the problem. Even if this is a training video to show others how to throw a launch party, it's hard to connect with the vapid characterizations of party guests.
This is the crux of Microsoft's marketing problems. It's not that they aren't good at technical marketing issues, it's that the brand itself is so voluminous, it's very hard for people to connect to specific products like Windows. And the efforts to persuade consumers isolate the tech media and confuse IT shops.
... Read moreMySpace today announced a new open-source project called Qizmt, a distributed computation framework developed by its data mining team.
Qizmt is based on the MapReduce distributed processing framework, well-known as a core part of Google's search indexing infrastructure. Qizmt, however, runs on large clusters of Microsoft Windows servers, an interesting sidebar to a computing style we most commonly associate with commodity Linux machines.
MapReduce is a programming model and an associated implementation for processing and generating large data sets. Users specify a map function that processes a key/value pair to generate a set of intermediate key/value pairs, and a reduce function that merges all intermediate values associated with the same intermediate key.
I spoke with Java architect and distributed systems expert Eugene Ciurana about MapReduce and he contends that "indexing large amounts of unstructured data is a difficult task regardless of the technologies involved. MapReduce provides a simple, elegant solution for data processing in parallelized systems."
As more sites move to manage large data sets, the uptake of frameworks like MapReduce and projects like Hadoop is sure to grow. And along with the growth of the data is the growth of the market opportunity. Open source is a great way to expand and enlarge the adoption curve as users figure out the best way to use these new tools.
Qizmt is currently being used in the MySpace "People You May Know" feature, and will soon expand to user recommendations and other new areas.
Follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom.
Sixty-seven percent of 2009's venture-backed mobile-application start-ups are developing their app to work on multiple platforms--namely, the top six mobile operating systems: iPhone, Palm, RIM, Android, Symbian, and Windows, according to new data from research firm Chubby Brain, 67.
Of the 33 percent that are developing platform-specific applications, development for the iPhone dominates all other platforms with slightly less than half of the investment dollars. This makes sense for a number of reasons, primarily the fact that the App Store is the easiest and clearest path to monetizing said applications.
What's interesting about this data is that developers are actively supporting six different platforms for different reasons. For example, you need to support Symbian to reach a broad group of users, and you need to support Android to try to reach what could be the next big swath of mobile devices. But managing development efforts for all of those platforms will eventually become a major headache.
I suspect that we'll see a further shift to devices supporting Apple's iPhone, Research In Motion's BlackBerry, and Google's Android operating systems over time, as smartphone functionality becomes more important on a global scale.
Follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom.
Google's Chrome operating system isn't the only thing threatening Windows these days. In a recent New York Times story, VMware CEO Paul Maritz highlighted how dynamic Web frameworks and languages are fundamentally shifting our understanding of the operating system. He said, "If you are in Ruby on Rails, you have to work really hard to tell what the operating system is, it is so far removed."
I spoke with Engine Yard's Yehuda Katz, a member of the Ruby on Rails core team, who said that open-source platforms like Ruby on Rails are changing the game by giving power to the developer to make decisions. "The freedom that comes with open standards and open-source software like Rails will ultimately make software applications better. We believe the replacement of the traditional desktop with application-centric development will benefit everyone."
These comments bring to light the changing nature of application development. A decade ago, if you were writing an application, chances were you were writing it for Windows. Today, there's a good chance you're writing it for the Web as a platform. A new generation of applications are both Web-centric and OS neutral thanks to open-source development platforms.
Importantly, the language and underpinning architecture for Web applications doesn't matter to the end-user (though it has serious impact on the development and operations teams). What matters is the ability to add new features quickly and affordably.
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(Credit:
Red Hat)
Red Hat recently posted an interesting case study on how retail giant The Gap moved from a Unix and Windows based e-commerce infrastructure to one based on Red Hat Linux with support for Microsoft's Active Directory via LikeWise, a product that improves the management and interoperability of Windows and Linux systems.
According to the case study, "Gap Inc. Direct needed to revamp its entire end-to-end business technology platform--from the customer-facing front-end system, to the back-end order management application, to the business tools that supported the company's long-term growth strategy."
Platform growth and adding new features were key to the underlying infrastructure and the ability to integrate a heterogeneous environment was the other major hurdle that needed to be addressed. Positive ROI was an added bonus.
"The ROI (return on investment) of the Red Hat-Likewise solution is hundreds of thousands of dollars annually once you add the hardware and software savings to the reduced costs of manually auditing our systems. Likewise Enterprise's compliance enhancements allowed us to expand our use of Red Hat Enterprise Linux," said Jeff Arcuri, senior manager, IT for Gap Inc. Direct.
I'm sure there are many Red Hat Linux wins to be touted, just as Microsoft would happily tell you about their customer successes. What's interesting here is that Red Hat is actively telling a story that includes a diverse environment and not pushing a myopic, single vendor view of the enterprise.
Follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom.
BusinessWeek is running a piece on Microsoft's latest attempts to fight back against Apple and Linux and its secret strategy to force unwitting Windows users to upgrade to various flavors of Windows 7.
Because of the smaller size of Windows 7, three versions of the program will come loaded even on lower-end machines. If a consumer on a cheaper PC running the "Standard" version tries to use a high-definition monitor or run more than three software programs at once, he'll discover that neither is possible. Then he'll be prompted to upgrade to the pricier "Home Premium" or "Ultimate" version.
Microsoft says the process will be simple. Customers enter their credit-card information, then a 25-character code, make a few keystrokes, then reboot. (Microsoft Corporate Vice President for Consumer-Product Marketing Brad Brooks) says pricing hasn't been determined, but upgrading "will cost less than a night out for four at a pizza restaurant."
I can't decide if this strategy is profoundly stupid or just utterly moronic.
Besides the fact that when you buy an Apple computer you aren't hoodwinked into upgrading the operating system, just think of all the simple things that can go wrong: ... Read more
Just when you thought our tax dollars and TARP funds were going out the window, a Texas senator added a provision to the state budget that would require state agencies to get written approval from the Legislative Budget Board before buying Windows Vista technology related to an operating system, equipment, or licenses.
My San Antonio News reports on the proposal, up for debate Wednesday:
The "rider" in the proposed two-year, $182.2 billion state budget--expected to be taken up Wednesday by the Texas Senate--would require state agencies to get written approval from the Legislative Budget Board before buying Vista technology related to an operating system, equipment, or licenses.
Sen. Juan Hinojosa, D-McAllen, added the provision in committee and said it's meant to block purchases of the technology, which has been targeted by criticism: "Don't buy it because it's not worth it."
The senator must have experienced one "blue screen of death" too many to want to force an entire state to reject Vista.
Follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom
