As market research firm NPD Group prepares to release sales data data for the U.S. game market next Thursday, other analysts have predicted a return to double-digit growth after six months of decline.
According to Edge Online, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research's Jesse Divnich expect monthly software sales of $750 million (up 21 percent year over year) and $715 million (up 16 percent), respectively. And while these are still just estimates, it shows that consumers are still willing to spend on high-quality new games.
EEDAR's top 10 forecast:
Halo 3: ODST (360, Microsoft) - 1,800,000
Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) - 500,000
The Beatles: Rock Band (Wii, EA) - 350,000
The Beatles: Rock Band (360, EA) - 325,000
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (360, Activision) - 300,000
Madden NFL 10 (360, EA) - 275,000
Batman: Arkham Asylum (360, Eidos) - 250,000
Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Eidos) - 250,000
Guitar Hero 5 (360, Activision) - 250,000
Guitar Hero 5 (Wii, Activision) - 200,000
One interesting note on the top 10 list is that it contains only seven titles, which shows the importance of supporting multiple consoles.
Finally, we're seeing a bit of a fight from the Sony PR team in response to the brutal lambasting the PlayStation 3 has been taking for its poor showing against Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's Wii, as well as the fact that it costs more to make than it sells for.
Edge Online reports on a Sony press release called "Keeping Gaming and Entertainment Simple," in which the Japanese consumer electronics giant emphasizes out-of-the-box features of the game console:
- Blu-ray functionality
- Built-in Wi-Fi
- Huge hard drives
- Free online gaming
- "Ten years of value with a future-proof system via firmware updates that offer new services and features."
It's good to see Sony finally saying something about the competition, but this is fairly weak stuff--not all that compelling. It's effectively saying, "don't forget about us" instead of showing why the PS3 is a great platform.
From the release:
"The Xbox 360 requires additional money, multiple upgrades, and additional external devices, putting a burden on the wallet, and (it) adds clutter to the entertainment center.
"And the Wii's lack of enhanced features comes at the expense of a comprehensive entertainment solution."
Wow. Harsh stuff! Seriously though, the PS3 is a really good gaming platform. It's pretty bizarre that Sony hasn't figured out a better marketing strategy over the last few months, including reducing the price to gain market momentum.
The PlayStation 2 received 30.2 percent of all console-gaming minutes in 2008 (January to October), according to the Nielsen Media Research.
(Credit:
Sony)
That statistic is a bit surprising, until you consider that Sony has sold more than 140 million PS2s since its launch. With the largest footprint, the PS2 should have the largest usage base.
- Top Console Usage (by percent of minutes played)
- PlayStation 2 (30.2 percent)
- Xbox 360 (18.3 percent)
- Wii (13.5 percent)
- Xbox (9.1 percent)
- PlayStation 3 (7.7 percent)
- GameCube (4.4 percent)
- Other (16.9 percent)
Admittedly, these PS2 numbers are surprising and very impressive. The PS3 is still struggling against the Wii and Xbox, and this data certainly doesn't let the PS3 off the hook, but it does show that there might be a long-tail effect in place for console games.
Even more impressive data from Nielsen is the fact that World of Warcraft, or WoW, players average 671 minutes (more than 11 hours) per week. In any given minute, "almost 1 percent (0.723 percent) of all PC gamers are playing WoW."
Today's Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece illustrating why the PS3 is floundering in the contest with Nintendo's Wii and Microsoft's Xbox 360. PS3 sales are on the decline while the competition is rising at a dramatic rate.
So, what are some of the main issues with the PS3?
It's overpriced
Microsoft dropped prices on the Xbox 360 to gain market share, and it worked. Sony is intent on becoming profitable (the right motive) but is doing so at the sake of building momentum. A console that starts at $400 (with only one controller and usually zero games) puts you over $500 before it's much fun.
According to the WSJ article, "U.S. sales of the PS3 fell 19 percent last month from a year earlier, while sales doubled for the Wii console and rose 8 percent for the Xbox 360, according to research firm NPD Group. Analysts say they expect PS3 sales for this month to be flat or lower than last year, while sales for its rivals are likely to rise."
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