While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.
The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.
(Credit:
Pike Research)
The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.
Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."
Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.
Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.
"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.
The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.
But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:
- By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
- Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
- The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
- Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
- The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.
The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research.
A project funded by the Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory will test bidirectional battery chargers and "smart" grids that could prevent U.S. electric grid overload from plug-in vehicles.
Ecotality is best known for the Hydratus, its onboard hydrogen fuel generator for buses, that grew out of a NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory project. Its subsidiary, eTec, makes chargers for rechargeable lithium ion and lead acid batteries used in electric light-construction vehicles.
Through this project, eTec will test battery-charging technology that could eventually be used to mitigate the anticipated strain on the U.S. electric grid from plug-in hybrid cars, the company announced Tuesday.
A company called V2Green has developed a "smart" electric grid that allows charging stations to control the flow of electricity between plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) batteries and an electric grid. Working with V2Green and its system, eTec plans to test the strain that bidirectional fast charging might have on the life of PHEV batteries.
The goal is to develop a system that would essentially allow plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, in conjunction with battery-charging stations, to store energy at charging stations so they could recharge in 10 minutes at any time, taking from the electric grid during off-peak hours and giving electricity to the grid during peak hours.
"Not only does this project demonstrate the ability to fast-charge a PHEV in 10 minutes, but it also highlights the additional benefit of fast-charging systems for managing facility energy consumption," Don Karner, the president and CEO of eTec, said in a statement.
Keep in mind, eTec does not manufacture the type of electric car battery you would find in a plug-in hybrid car like a Toyota Prius, but rather for those found in slower, lightweight off-road electric vehicles. Still, the project, if successful, could provide an immediate application for construction and utility companies that already rely on fleets of light PHEVs.
Karner said the data gathered on bidirectional fast-charging for recharging facilities, as well as on electric utilities, could lay "the foundation for the development of a public fast-charging infrastructure for on-road electric vehicles."
Several studies on this topic are under way, as delivery dates of plug-in hybrids for Main Street USA, promised by automakers such as Toyota, Ford Motor, and General Motors, loom closer.
While the U.S. Department of Energy has said it's confident it can handle a plethora of plug-ins, many still wonder what kind of strain will be put on the U.S. power infrastructure once consumers tap into it as a fuel source to recharge cars.
Even the confident Department of Energy announced in mid-June that it's giving $30 million to several car companies and research institutes to further develop hybrid plug-in car technology. Some of that funding is earmarked specifically for research on battery packs and charging systems.
The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI), with sponsorship from General Motors and others, has also announced that it has a grant to study what effects a multitude of PHEVs being charged during peak electricity hours might have on Michigan's state electric grid.
The city of San Jose, Calif., announced on Tuesday that it will begin testing electric car charging stations developed by start-up Coulomb Technologies.
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