Earlier this year, I expressed my skepticism that Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) and Netbooks (essentially scaled-down, low-cost notebooks) would come to pass as mainstream product categories. My reasoning boiled down to an assertion that these things were neither fish nor fowl. As usually envisioned, a MID is a form factor that is neither as portable as a smartphone nor as full-functioned as a notebook. A Netbook is a notebook that is underpowered and otherwise compromised.
I've seen nothing over the past few months to change my mind about MIDs. If anything, Apple's continued march with the iPhone and the work going on around Google Android have me more convinced than ever that the browser-equipped smartphone is the future of truly mobile computing. (There are a lot of interesting dynamics here related to carrier hardware subsidies and the desire of carriers to lock down and restrict use in various ways, but those are topics for another day.)
Netbook sales, on the other hand, have been strong. In fact, they're driving a lot of the worldwide growth in PC sales. So, are we, in fact, seeing the emergence of a new product category--something that doesn't happen very often?
We are seeing a lot of consumer interest in very portable computers that are economy-priced. Economy pricing is really what's new here. Historically, companies have paid big premiums to get the most portable notebooks for their road warriors with the goal being to give up as little function as possible in service of light weight (and, to a lesser degree, small size).
Some things about Netbooks do indeed look like a new category of product. The first is that a lot of the people purchasing these devices are individuals, not businesses. In many cases (especially in the U.S.), they're intended to supplement--rather than replace--another desktop PC or a higher-end notebook. A second thing is that, especially at the entry level, Netbooks tend to have differences of kind, and not just degree. They run Linux and Windows XP, not Vista. They're explicitly intended to access Web-based applications through a browser or to run some basic productivity software locally; they're not general purpose. And they use less power-hungry, but less powerful, processors such as Intel's Atom.
However, I wonder if the apparent bright line distinction from other notebooks isn't a temporary phenomenon that will soften over time. Memory gets denser, processors get faster, LCDs get cheaper. Some of these Moore's Law-fueled advances could indeed continue to push the entry level of the notebook market down in price. Perhaps we'll even have a $100 laptop that only costs $100 some day. But I strongly suspect that a lot of that technical advance will also go into beefing up the capabilities of notebooks in the sort of price band that a lot of consumer electronics sell for--say, sub-$500.
Ultimately, I'm less convinced that we're seeing the emergence of a truly distinct product category than that we're seeing the continued downward movement of not only notebook entry pricing, but entry bulk as well. Besides, however fond IT industry people are at chopping markets into named categories, as a fellow analyst said at a recent meeting: "the average consumer calls everything a laptop anyway."
Intel perhaps most of all, but a lot of technology vendors are pushing the idea of MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) and Netbooks (essentially scale-down, low-cost notebooks). Intel's interest here is pretty straightforward: the more a mobile device resembles a traditional PC, the more Intel's x86 franchise gives it a leg-up. By contrast, smartphones are based on any number of low-power processors, typically something other than x86 architecture.
I'm skeptical that these categories between the smartphone and the notebook will amount to a whole lot.
The issue I see with MIDs and Netbooks in the general case, however, is essentially a matter of form factor.
One the one hand, smartphones fit easily in most pockets. The downside is a small screen and text input that is largely by thumb, rather than by finger. Furthermore, because smartphones have historically been built using such a hodgepodge of hardware and software--including browsers--Website compatibility has been spotty at best, even leaving aside the (significant) issues that a smaller screen area introduces.
At the other end of the scale are familiar notebooks. Even the more portable varieties have more-or-less full-size keyboards and screen. Besides relatively high cost and the need to maintain and update a full-fledged operating system on a PC, notebooks weigh a few pounds and pit in a backpack or briefcase form factor--not a pocket, however oversized.
Against this backdrop, one can imagine Netbooks that sit in a kitchen to look up recipes or a MID that functions as a mobile browser and entertainment gadget somewhat in the vein of an iPod Touch. However, these scenarios feel like stretching to me. The cellphone is ubiquitous and highly portable (and smartphone browsers will get better). The notebook is well-suited to keyboard input and rich Website display (and will inevitably get ever smaller and lighter).
What do the alternatives offer?
A MID is a form factor that is neither as portable as a smartphone nor as full-functioned as a notebook. A Netbook is a notebook that is underpowered and otherwise compromised. At a low enough price point, perhaps. But the One Laptop Per Child experience suggests that the most aggressive price points may well be too aggressive to be practical.
In short, at least in a market where almost everyone has a cellphone and notebooks are the full-function PC of choice, it's hard to see the compromises of the MID and the Netbook as anything but too much pain for too little gain.
All that said, I'm now going to do something that used to intensely annoy a former editor of mine who never let the facts interfere with a good argument. I'm going to qualify my skepticism. By analogy, people ride and pedal all manner of vehicles. Some, such as bicycles and cars, are clearly mainstream. A few are true oddballs (unicycles). Some have very specific use cases (two-seater cars). Others are generally uncommon in the US but are relatively common in other locations (scooters).
Perhaps MIDs or Netbooks will emerge as the two-seaters or even the scooters of the computer world. Truly mainstream device? Probably not. But the uber-portable and inexpensive notebook, in particular, could find takers in the developing world or as a third- or fourth household PC in more developed nations. Especially as Moore's Law and other technical advances bring faster processors and bigger storage to even the most entry of price points.
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