Outside the Lines

This week Microsoft gave evidence that it will continue to be a major force for at least the next decade. The company outlined its products and strategies that more fully embrace the "cloud," such as the Azure set of cloud services; Web-based, lighter-weight versions of Microsoft Office applications; and the latest iteration of the Live Mesh middleware. Google may have won the search war, but Microsoft isn't about to cede the global cloud to the search engine giant.

Ray Ozzie explains Azure to CNET News correspondent Ina Fried.

As in past epochs in its 33-year history, Microsoft ties its success to the developer community, having an army of loyal, or at least well or modestly compensated, software warriors. The Microsoft mantra is: "Build a platform and an ecosystem of developers, partners, fans, and people willing to spend their money will follow." A compelling platform and the potential to reach a large audience of buyers, which Microsoft can deliver, attract the developers, who build the applications and services that attract consumers and business users.

Microsoft also now understands that its platform must span every kind of device--PC, notebook, smartphone, car, home, etc.--and offline scenarios. Microsoft missed the Web search revolution, but it's not going to miss out on the much bigger revolution--the move to the cloud over the next two decades.

Google is building a competing ecosystem from the ground up with similar characteristics and a desire to attract millions of developers. Amazon is pushing its elastic computer cloud, and Rackspace, EMC, IBM, and many other companies are trying to get a piece of the action. Most the cloud companies are focused on hosting services, but the biggest piece will be platforms-as-a-service with developers creating and running their applications for on a cloud operating system.

An early example of this trend is Salesforce.com's proprietary Force.com platform. Sun Microsystems, the company that coined the phrase "The network is the computer," has all the pieces to construct a planetary cloud but seems to be missing from the discussion. As my friend Steve Gillmor notes, Sun is on the ropes.

Openness is a major issue as the global cloud materializes. Businesses don't want to be locked into a particular cloud, and also want various clouds and services to interoperate via standards. Speaking at the Professional Developers Conference last week, Microsoft's chief software architect Ray Ozzie said that the foundation level in the operating system cloud would run in Microsoft's data center, but SQL services, .NET, and Live services can be mixed and matched by developers inside and outside of the company's datacenters. The Azure cloud is also cross-platform, but the various clouds will extract a toll and by nature it won't be dead simple to move applications using foundation services from one cloud to another.

Microsoft's cloud computing efforts have gotten off to a slow start compared with competitors, and it's on the scale of a Manhattan Project for Windows. Azure is in pre-beta and who knows how it will turn out or whether consumers and companies will adopt it with enough volume to keep Microsoft's business model and market share intact. But there is no turning back and Microsoft has finally legitimized Office in the cloud.

Ray Ozzie has a track record of slowly but surely getting things done and Microsoft is famously persistent and cash rich. But building a platform, or Internet operating system, at planetary scale supporting billions of users and trillions of transactions per day, and having fleet Google as a primary competitor will be a major test of Microsoft's brain trust and resolve. Don't be surprised to find a recharged Bill Gates parachuting into the fray as Azure evolves and the cloud war for developers escalates.

See also:

Scoble: Never underestimate Microsoft's ability to turn a corner

Wilcox: How Can You Be So Sure about Azure?

In this week's EIC Squared podcast, ZDNet's Larry Dignan and I talk about how the economic crisis will impact the tech sector. Both the House and Senate have passed the bailout package, but the legislation doesn't mean that tech or any other industry sector will reverse the downward spiral. Tech companies and financial analysts are rapidly cutting estimates to prepare for a potential nuclear winter in the global economy.

We also discuss Microsoft's forthcoming moves into cloud computing and the state of citizen journalism following the fake Steve Jobs heart attack story that showed up on CNN.

Microsoft is applying its tried and true formula of creating software platforms that can attract millions of users and developers to the hosted applications world. It will be the next major frontier for Microsoft to conquer, competing with companies such as Amazon.com, EMC, Google, IBM, and others. And it's safe to bet that Microsoft becomes one of the major players in the cloud. More to come at Microsoft's PDC event later this month.

After attending GigaOM's Structure 08, I came away with a cloud-computing hangover. Just trying to define cloud computing is daunting given all the hype and companies thunderclapping.

Today the research firm Gartner has jumped on the cloud computing bandwagon, proclaiming that it "heralds an evolution of business that is no less influential than e-business," and defining it as massively scalable IT-related capabilities provided as a service using Internet technologies to multiple external customers.

Yahoo just announced a Cloud Computing & Data Infrastructure Group, which will develop computing infrastructure that balances scalability with cost effectiveness. What was Yahoo doing before it created this group?

I prefer the way Sun Chairman Scott McNealy talks about cloud computing. Ten years ago he was calling it the "big freakin' Webtone switch." Following is how he described it in December 2001:

That is the server, the storage, the operating system, the monitoring software, the clustering, the alternate pathing, multiple domaining, dynamic reconfiguration--and then it has a mail tone, a calendar tone, a news tone, an app server tone, and a directory tone. It has all of the different features of a big freaking WebTone switch and allows you to create this big jukebox. You can buy that all complete. Or you have one throat to choke and you can buy it all through a service provider that is SunTone certified. Or you can do what many IT directors do and they go out and buy the telephone switch by buying the chip from Intel, the operating system from Microsoft, the disk drive from EMC, the Compaq power supply, the Oracle database, the Novell directory, the BEA app server, the SAP, ERP, and CRM from here, blah-blah-blah, this, that, and the other thing, a SoundBlaster card from somebody else, the anti-virus uninstaller from Norton, and then go bring in IBM Global Services to try to make the whole thing work. Buy the big freaking WebTone switch.

At that time McNealy was talking about how enterprises provision their data centers and user services. Now we are seeing Amazon, Google and others take their data center expertise and make it available to developers and companies. Enterprises will be slower to move to the cloud, but they will eventually get there. Software-as-a-service providers are flourishing, and increasingly enterprises are considering off-premises, hosted solutions.

In essence, we are at the beginning of the age of planetary computing. Billions of people will be wirelessly interconnected, and the only way to achieve that kind of massive scale usage is by massive scale, brutally efficient cloud-based infrastructure.

More on cloud computing and Structure 08

Sun Microsystems has become its own free software foundation, open-sourcing everything from Java to Solaris, and acquiring the open-source MySQL database for $1 billion in January of this year, as a way to grow its revenue.

It seems counter-intuitive, but Sun CEO Jonathan Schwartz has been betting the company on that strategy. Speaking at the Supernova 2008 conference, Schwartz explained that free software brings the marginal cost to acquire a customer to zero and helps drive revenue.

Schwartz showed a world map with clusters of dots representing all the people who registered with Sun when they downloaded ZFS (an open-source storage file system) in the last 12 months. Each dot represents a potential customer that cost Sun zero to acquire, Schwartz said. MySQL adds about 100,000 dots a day to the map, he added.

"The majority is going to buy hardware (to run the free software), and not just from Sun," Schwartz said. The challenge for Sun is when not enough customers choose Sun as a hardware vendor, and buy support services for the free software, to cover their operating costs.

Schwartz pointed to Thumper (Sun Fire X4500 Server0, a server with 48 TB of storage running Open Solaris and ZFS that was on a $100 million annual run rate after two quarters of sales as evidence of free software driving hardware sales. He also shared a conversation with CIOs from major corporations and government agencies, who weren't aware that their IT staff had downloaded MySQL hundreds of times.

Those who charge for new customers by putting a price on software, such as Microsoft, are under siege, Schwartz claimed. He may be right long term, but Microsoft's business for Office and other products has never been better.

Schwartz said the Sun released a version of OpenOffice.org, a competitor to Microsoft Office, about 10 years ago. The suite now has 110 million active users, but Sun hasn't turned that into a significant revenue stream.

"The audiences want the products for free...the only question is will they pick yours," Schwartz said. "However, if ZFS isn't interesting enough to pull the interest of the community, we and our partners can't make money. Free and popular tend to go hand in hand, but they are not mutually exclusive."

Schwartz believes that the free software movement is in its infancy. "We are in the second inning. The first service for free was search, then news and now data center software, but a whole lot of products have yet to see their retail price affected by the network," he said. "Imagine a free phone with no guaranteed contract on the back end. That is all in front of us."

In this week's EIC Squared podcast, ZDNet's Larry Dignan and I discuss the latest news from SAP, Sun Microsystems, Advanced Micro Devices, and Microhoo. At SAP's Sapphire conference this week, company executives explained the delayed rollout of the new on-demand enterprise suite, Business ByDesign. SAP CEO Henning Kagermann said that the total cost of ownership (TCO) equation on Business ByDesign and the upgrade procedures weren't good enough:

"We know we can have TCO, but need NetWeaver enhancements. There's a very close link between the TCO of Business ByDesign and NetWeaver. The TCO is not so much hardware; There are too many processing steps in our hosting. We can continue to do manual steps when first upgrade Business ByDesign from 1.0 to 1.1, but it's not predictable in way where every client got it at once and in the same way."

Larry remarks on AMD's lack of transparency about its chip fabrication plans and product roadmap, and I recap my visit to JavaOne, where I met rocker Neil Young and interviewed Sun CEO Jonathan Schwartz about his plans for JavaFX and cloud computing. Schwartz has a good plan, but getting developers on board will take some heavy lifting.

We also debate whether Microsoft is open to a union with Yahoo after the parting of ways.

SAN FRANCISCO--While an interview with Neil Young has been my big highlight of JavaOne, I also managed to hook up with Sun CEO Jonathan Schwartz for a video interview. We talked about Project Hydrazine, a new cloud computing initiative with services similar to what Google and Amazon.com offer. We also discussed JavaFX, Sun's competitor to Adobe AIR and Microsoft Silverlight, and Project Insight, which is designed to gather instrumented user action data via JavaFX and provide it to developers.

JavaFX, which includes a runtime, scripting, and a media framework, could have a hard time competing with Adobe and Silverlight, which means attracting developers to the platform could be a challenge. But Sun has a powerful platform accelerant--85 percent of cell phones, 91 percent of desktops, and 100 percent of all Blu-ray Disc players run Java and can be automatically updated to run JavaFX.

Project Hydrazine is slated to deliver immersive, creative experiences in the cloud via services. Rich Green, executive vice president of software at Sun, told me that a storage service, similar to Amazon's S3, would be available later this year. The company is also working on tools to make it easier for developers, as well as consumers, to mash up applications.

Sun CTO Robert Brewin described the emergent Project Hydrazine as a combination of Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud, Microsoft Live Mesh and Google Analytics.

Green also said that e-mail, calendaring, and messaging services would be available as cloud services this year. While Sun isn't widely known for its e-mail services, the Sun Java Communications Suite powers companies such as Verizon.

Project Hydrazine will run on Sun's Network.com platform, which is mostly employed as pay-per-use computing infrastructure for high-performance computing applications.

Sun has to be both an arms dealer to the Amazons, eBays and telcos of the world, and also a direct supplier of infrastructure services.

"It's important for us to be a neutral technology supplier to developers and to operate as a service for those who don't have the wherewithal to buy their own infrastructure," Schwartz told me off camera. "Network.com is the backplane for everything we build--servers, MySQL, JavaFX, tape storage, and the software stack." It's the latest instantiation of Sun's slogan, "The network is the computer."

As an example of its arms dealer persona, Sun announced this week that it is partnering with Amazon to offer OpenSolaris as an on-demand service Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2).

Sun has the elements to provide high performance and reliable infrastructure. Now, Schwartz needs to show that his company can intercept the increasing demand for the hardware and software required for the wired planet.

Editor's note: News.com's Dan Farber reported Young's keynote speech and a follow-up Q&A live from JavaOne.

SAN FRANCISCO--At JavaOne here, Neil Young showed off his multimedia project that chronicles his music career and uses Java to do so.

Young said he tried to do the project on DVD, but users couldn't watch the high-resolution video and listen to the music at the same time. With Java and Blu-ray, the content can be updated and offer the best viewing and listening experience, as well as great navigation and design. "Storage is the only limit," Young said, and recommended the Sony's PlayStation 3 as the best way to view his project.

Users will be able to download any archival materials, which are automatically assigned to their place in a chronological time line, Young said.

In a meeting with a few press members following the JavaOne keynote, Young talked about the Archive project, which goes back to the late 1980s. The first stage, he said, was collecting the materials.

"I am kind of a pack rat," he said, adding that over the years he's accumulated a lot of unreleased material. "I only give the record company what I want people to hear at the time. So I have a lot of unreleased material. Putting it all together tells a much different story than just what has been produced (for public consumption)."

The compilation of the unpublished clips helps show Young's musical evolution, the effects of success, and the ups and downs, he said. In the beginning, he said, he was nervous and talked a lot, but was very focused on singing his songs. "I'd make a lot of jokes and then sing a tear-jerker song."

Young was asked how music and technology go together. "There is a lot of math; it is emotional math," he replied.

Larry Johnson, of Shakey Films (which works on all of Young's films), said Young had the concept for his latest project on paper 15 years ago. About two years ago, they put the footage all together and waited for the Blu-ray HD-DVD fight to end.

"We are cramming the disc full with every feature we can," Young said.

They started off envisioning it to be something like a video game, a "3D tumbling experience through time," he said. "You could see the history of the world and other great performances through time. It would be a nice thing to do. Hopefully we will get this approach done, but by the time we are halfway through, it will morph."

"Putting on a headphone and listening to MP3 is like hell."

--Neil Young

"The recording business as we know it is changing. As an artist I try to remove myself from the business," Young said. "I steer myself away from that...the commerce of distributing music will work itself out."

He added: "We are trying to give them quality whether they want it or not. You can degrade it as much as you want, we just don't want our name on it." People are taking music and doing whatever they want with it, he said. "The laws don't matter. These are people in their bedroom doing what they want. It's the new radio."

Young said you can't be "scared or paranoid about trying to survive." Sure, when the digital revolution came along, it was "like getting hit with icepicks." Now, he said, the ice is tiny, maybe a little like snow.

That said, he's clearly not a fan of MP3 quality: "Putting on a headphone and listening to MP3 is like hell," he said.

Of course, digital and multitrack recordings in the '80s didn't sound so great either. The sound was shallow, he said. Now, he said, audio quality is climbing, though he still makes all his recordings in analog. "I plan to dumb my analog to the higher level so masses can enjoy it," he said.

Besides music, Young is working with engineers and developers to create a car that doesn't require roadside refueling. He is working with a variety of developers and scientists to develop a large, American-style car that doesn't require fossil fuels. "I have trained myself to take this on," he said.

"America is full of big people; it's a huge country and the wind blows. I don't want to have cars blown off the road with high winds," Young said. "We work with aerodynamics, and there's the X Prize effort to get 100 miles per gallon." Scientists are working on interesting concepts such as cars running on compressed air with stackable motors on the wheels, he said. Other solutions are more fringe.

"It's very kooky. People say you are nuts but I am used to that," he said. "People are so paranoid about the power establishment. That's what they think about when you come up with an idea that is going to bring change."

Young said that he wasn't interested in the Tesla, a sporty and expensive electric car. "The Tesla isn't ready to buy yet--you have to plug it in," he said.

Young said that he is an "overseer" more than carrying on a day-to-day role in his electric car project.

He lauded the Internet because it's a great place to find science experts all over the world. "People who are just kooks," he said. "You have to filter and separate and look on the perimeter of scientific world and give them encouragement."

Young is planning to chronicle the damage cars are doing to the environment and the development of a car that doesn't require roadside fueling in a new movie. The car will be wired to the gills, with all kinds of sensors and cameras feeding data, Young said.

On surveillance, Young said, "Surveillance society is out of control. There is nothing you can do. You can fight it...there will be an ongoing battle for privacy."

SAN FRANCISCO--Following a flurry of T-shirts catapulted by Java creator James Gosling and a hot dance troop performance, 75 hours of JavaOne got under way here this week. Sun Microsystems' software chief, Rich Green, took the stage to talk about consumers, people he sees as driving change.

"Information is crossing the moat, escaping the castle," he said. "The private information network is gone." Enterprises have to recognize that the enterprise moat barriers are coming down, he added, with consumers driving innovation.

As part of Sun's effort to enable consumers to innovate, Green introduced JavaFX, a rich Internet application environment set to compete with Adobe Systems' AIR and Microsoft's Silverlight.

He showed a JavaFX application with Flickr and Twitter feeds running in Facebook within the browser, and then he dragged it out of the browser--to the desktop. The same application also was shown running on a Java-enabled phone via JavaFX Mobile.

Unfortunately, the application, using the new Java Update 10 browser plug-in, kept crashing. "It's the size of the pipes in Moscone Center," Green complained. "This is the Moscone terror moment."

Sun is hoping to tap into 2.2 billion mobile devices and the vast majority of desktop PCs that are Java-enabled. JavaFX was shown running on Google's Android mobile platform. Green noted that 85 percent of cell phones, 91 percent of desktops, and 100 percent of all Blu-ray Disc players will run JavaFX.

Sun also plans to deliver JavaFX from the cloud and to gather instrumented user action data via JavaFX that goes back to developers. It could be used for advertising or to provide information to customers, Green said.

Sun plans to deliver the first version of JavaFX Desktop and browsers in the fall. The mobile version is slated for the spring of 2009. Developers can get early access to the JavaFX runtime.

See also: Dana Gardner's post "Profits-strapped Sun continues decade-long pitch to developers on Java dominance"

This week on the EIC Squared podcast, ZDNet's Larry Dignan and I discuss the latest reports surrounding the Microsoft-Yahoo mating dance. We expect some news later Friday or early next week as to which way Microsoft is leaning--fight or flight.

I visited with IBM executives this week, and share with Larry my thoughts on IBM's focus on the mainframe and its budding relationship with Google. In addition, we discuss Sun's challenges in turning free, open-source software into profits for the company. And we talk about the upcoming JavaOne and SAP Sapphire conferences.