I heard from a few people about my post on the relative valuations of MySQL, JBoss, Zimbra, and XenSource. Because of a lack of data on growth trajectories, I didn't factor those into my light analysis, but anyone buying a company would seriously factor this in. In fact, as one person commented, "multiples are a factor of growth by definition of discounted cash flow based valuations."
He's absolutely right. Part of the reason that MySQL got such a great valuation is that it has significantly improved its growth in the past year. Much of this came from productizing its services (i.e., the distinction between MySQL Enterprise and Community), such that it had a compelling value proposition beyond vanilla support. Savio would be proud. :-)
... Read moreA friend and I were talking about the relative valuations for open-source companies. Over on his blog, JBoss founder Marc Fleury had joked that, after seeing MySQL's valuation, he realized he clearly had "undersold."
But as it turns out, JBoss' valuation multiple was not much different from that of MySQL--which was snagged by Sun Microsystems this week for $1 billion.
The 451 Group is reporting MySQL's numbers as follows:
While MySQL has not disclosed revenue for 2007, it is believed that its revenue in 2006 was $34 million, up from $16 million in 2005 and $14 million in 2004. We estimate trailing 12-month (i.e., 2007) revenue to be about $48 million, and if we assume slightly slower growth in 2008, we get to about $65 million....Given that, it would mean Sun is paying 20.8 times trailing 12-month revenue and 15.4 times projected 2008 revenue.... Read more
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