In a clear indictment of Microsoft's Windows strategy, new research suggests that up to a third of all new Windows Vista machines get downgraded to XP, either by the hardware vendors like Dell, or by customers.
That is a massive number. Ironically, it's a number that works to the short-term advantage of Microsoft's top and bottom lines, but it still represents a vote of "no confidence" in Microsoft's Windows strategy.
Microsoft's only hope at this point is that customers will forget Vista as rapidly as they did Millennium and ramp up anticipation for Windows 7. Actually, it's real hope is that Windows 7 will be worth waiting for.
No one is buying Apple's machines because of an upgrade from OS X 10.3 to 10.5. They're upgrading from Windows XP or from the iPod or iPhone. They want, in other words, a different computing experience, not merely an improved operating system. No one thinks about operating systems anymore. Or not much.
Until Microsoft finds some compelling reason for people to care about its operating system, or provides differentiated value beyond the operating system, it's going to find that Windows 7 won't solve its ills. Midori, which blends the cloud with the desktop, is a much smarter bet. Windows 7? It feels like more of the same Vista problem.
A new survey by KACE, a systems management appliance company, suggests that 60 percent of those surveyed have no plans to deploy Microsoft Windows Vista, a 10 percent rise over a similar survey administered by KACE in November 2007. A full 42 percent of these are actively exploring Vista alternatives, with 11 percent having made the leap to alternative platforms like Mac OS X or Linux.
Eighteen months after the release of Windows Vista, enterprise adoption is still in the single digits, and the majority of that seems to have come from upgrades of legacy Windows versions, not XP.
How does Microsoft hope to compete? By copying Apple, the company that is kicking its tail in terms of growth. It worked once before....
In an email sent by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to Microsoft employees, Ballmer argued that "the success of Windows is our number one job," while acknowledging that to compete with little Apple that it outsells "30-to-1" it will change the way it works with hardware companies to try to catch up.
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Allegations abound that Microsoft is logging calls to measure demand for "Coke Classic" (also known as Windows XP). Why, well, apparently 165,000 people have already signed a petition to keep "Coke Classic" around.
Perhaps Microsoft is a victim of its own success with XP (which I never liked - I'm a Windows 2000 guy if I'm forced to use a Windows machine at all). Or, more likely, it has simply failed to offer much of value in Vista. At least, not enough to justify upgrading to a bloatware system like Vista.
Will Microsoft persevere in forcing the world to Vista? Perhaps. But the Windows ship is starting to leak as more and more people desert for the Mac.
Or will it capitulate to its customers and simply ride out the next few years on XP until Windows 7 comes along? Doubtful.
In a January 2008 survey by Changewave Research the obvious became even more obvious: Mac users are very happy with their Macs, while Windows users live in the doldrums of computing Hell.
Surprising? Nah. The percentage of new home computer buyers who reported being "Very Satisfied" with their chosen operating system was as follows:
- Mac OS X "Leopard" - 81 percent;
- Windows XP Home - 53 percent;
- Windows XP Pro - 51 percent;
- Vista Home Premium - 27 percent;
- Vista Home Basic - 15 percent
Perhaps this is just a reflection of choice. Meaning, those who actually get to choose their operating system are much happier than those who have it foisted upon them by Microsoft's overwhelming dominance of the personal computing industry.
Linus Torvalds woke up on Mars today (or maybe it was Oz), and had this to say about Windows Vista and Apple's OS X:
I don't think they're equally flawed. I think Leopard is a much better system. On the other hand, (I've found) OS X in some ways is actually worse than Windows to program for. Their file system is complete and utter crap, which is scary. I think OS X is nicer than Windows in many ways, but neither can hold a candle to my own (Linux). It's a race to second place.
I guess when you're famous you can say inane things and get away with it. Yes, Linux does some things better than Mac OS X and Microsoft's Windows Vista on the desktop (security, maybe), but let's be honest: the Linux desktop is "utter crap" compared to either OS X or Windows when it comes to the thing that matters most: usability.
If normal people can't use it, it just doesn't matter how beautifully architected it is. Sorry, Linus. Everyone has to be wrong sometimes. This is your turn to shine.
That said, I found his comments on whether Google is a good open-source citizen much more illuminating:
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CNET Channel has announced that it is partnering with Microsoft to help consumers purchase Windows-supported products with ease and little hesitation. Just what I wanted from my unbiased, neutral news broker.
CNET Channel's high-quality, accurate and consistent product content helps over 2,100 high-technology manufacturers and channel businesses in 35 national markets drive their online businesses and increase sales effectiveness. As an aggregator of best-of-breed content and e-commerce services, CNET Channel will now deliver 'Certified for Windows Vista' and 'Works with Windows Vista' logo information ... Read more
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