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A somewhat predictable PC upgrade cycle was a welcome fact of life back in the '80s and '90s, but it might be a thing of the past.

Or it might not. Analysts are debating it, and we will find out what they conclude next year.

Here's the brief history. In those long-ago days, PC manufacturers--and hence software developers, chipmakers, and computer dealers--would see a spike in demand every three to four years. Microsoft and Intel would come out with major refreshes of their product lines roughly at that cadence. The whole system of steady upgrade cycles culminated with the release of Windows 95 in 1995, still one of the best orgies of technology binge buying on record. Start me up!

After Windows 95, however, operating system upgrades were no longer strong enough on their own to prompt upgrade cycles. A slight bump in sales might occur, but it was hard to say whether it was related to a new OS. Few were buying new PCs so they could get their hands on Windows 98, or 2000, according to analysts at the time. Instead, people were upgrading when their PCs started to seem too slow or started to have problems.

The first cycle prompted by the physical wearing out of computers probably occurred in 2003-2004. Those machines, bought by corporations and some consumers in preparation of the Y2K bug (which you can argue was the last upgrade cycle inspired by software), were wearing out by then. Sales jumped.

The current PC environment, however, might now be too dispersed to be impacted in a major way by even somewhat simultaneous dilapidation or OS upgrades, speculated IDC's Bob O'Donnell.

Most of the growth is coming out of Asia and emerging markets. Thus, U.S. tech departments have less influence on overall sales. The consumer is also a much larger portion of the PC market now, and consumers don't buy in waves. In other words, although PC sales are growing, the larger number of buyers have attenuated any coordination in their actions.

Some thought that the service packs for Windows Vista might prompt an upgrade, but it didn't happen.

Here's some evidence that the market is less synchronized: the U.S. is mired in a recession, but PC sales jumped 14.6 percent in terms of units in the first quarter, compared to the same period a year ago, according to IDC.

"The main issue is the economic situation in the U.S.," said Doug Bell, PC analyst for IDC. "It was the only region really impacted by the recession scare."

For the counterpoint, there's Charles Smulders of Gartner. "I still believe that there is an upgrade cycle," he said. "I just think that people are keeping those machines longer."

And the next one could come next year, when those 2003-2004 machines bought to replace the Y2K upgrades will start conking down.

But Smulders agrees that PC sales are strong this year. Gartner saw an increase of 12.3 percent in units.

It's called the Vista Service Pack 1 Release Candidate Refresh. It's supposed to be a bug-fixin', feature-enhancin' behemoth that makes Windows Vista leaner, meaner, taller, and sexier.

It'll do your dishes and take out your garbage, too.

Microsoft released this "Release Candidate Refresh" late last week--just one month after the initial release candidate made its debut. The company asserted that it wants additional information from testers, which indicates that even more bugs need to be fixed. But what does RC Refresh really do? Is it really that large? Most importantly, do you need it?

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(Credit: Newegg)

If you bought a budget-level notebook within the past year, chances are good it came with Windows Vista and 1GB of RAM--a poor combination to say the least. Vista needs at least 2GB to operate efficiently, especially on notebooks with integrated graphics processors (which borrow RAM from the rest of the system).

Newegg.com has a Transcend 2GB PC2 5300 notebook memory module for $26.99 (after a $10 mail-in rebate). Shipping will run you $4.99.

You'll need to make sure, of course, that your system can accommodate this kind of module (it's a pretty standard size and speed). And check the manual to see what kinds of memory configurations it requires. For instance, it's not always possible (or advisable) to mix and match modules, meaning you might not be able to plug in the 2GB stick alongside the current 1GB stick (if that's what you have--your system might have a pair of 512MB modules). In short, you may need to pull your existing RAM to make way for the new module--but, hey, that's what eBay is for, right?