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May 29, 2008 6:41 PM PDT

FCC ponders auction for free wireless service

by Marguerite Reardon
  • 5 comments

The Federal Communications Commission is considering a new plan that would require winners of an upcoming spectrum auction to provide free wireless Internet services.

The FCC could soon vote on a plan to auction off 25 megahertz of spectrum in the 2155MHz band of spectrum. As part of its plan, the commission would require the winner of those licenses to provide some free wireless Internet service.

The FCC sees the plan as a way to provide broadband Internet service to millions of Americans who either can't afford or don't want to pay for high-speed Internet access. Few details are known about what exactly the FCC is proposing, but word has it that it's similar to a plan proposed by M2Z Networks in 2006.

Under that plan, the FCC would give the company access to spectrum for free. The company would build the network and fund the service through advertising. As part of the proposal, M2Z planned to give the FCC 5 percent of its gross revenue from the service.

But the FCC didn't like that proposal, especially the part about giving spectrum away for free. So it's come up with its own proposal. Instead of giving away free spectrum licenses, it will auction the spectrum to the highest bidder and require the winning bidder to offer service on some its spectrum for free. The FCC will also require that the free service have content filtering in place to ensure that minors are not able to access adult Web sites.

Wireless service providers have traditionally opposed any stipulations imposed on wireless spectrum auctions. And the CTIA, the trade organization representing the industry, has already filed comments with the commission urging it not to put requirements on the spectrum.

"The commission should not require licensees to meet specific conditions, such as pricing plans, minimum data rates or content filtering," the CTIA wrote in a filing.

While the FCC's plan might be well-intended, I think it's unlikely that any company would spend the millions or even billions of dollars necessary to buy the spectrum, especially considering that it will take even more money to build and operate the network.

The advertising supported model sounds good on paper. But so far, it hasn't been proven to work. In fact, the failed citywide Wi-Fi projects all over the country have already proven that free wireless services don't work. EarthLink planned to only give some of its service away for free in some cities like San Francisco. But it offered "cheap" broadband in other cities. MetroFi built its whole business model on offering free Wi-Fi supported by advertising revenue.

EarthLink has since canceled plans to build its San Francisco network and now its dismantling networks in other cities, such as Philadelphia and New Orleans. Meanwhile, MetroFi is also looking for a way out of its citywide Wi-Fi business.

These companies weren't able to make the free model or even the inexpensive broadband model work, because networks are expensive to build and maintain. And unlike the bidders in this auction, these companies didn't have to pay for the spectrum they used to build the networks. I can't imagine many companies willing to make that kind of investment if they're required to offer even some of their service for free.

For this reason, I think it would be difficult for the FCC to find a bidder willing to take on the stipulations. This is exactly what happened in the most recent 700MHz spectrum auction. The FCC required bidders on the "D Block" of licenses to set aside a portion of that spectrum for public safety use. The only company even interested in the spectrum went out of business before the auction began, because it was unable to secure the necessary funding. In the end, the minimum bid on these licenses was never met, and the FCC is still trying to figure out how to rewrite the rules to attract bidders.

That said, the FCC has had some success in setting rules for new spectrum auctions. In the same 700MHz spectrum auction, the FCC required the winner of the C-Block licenses to build a network using this spectrum that is open to all devices and applications. Verizon Communications ended up paying $4.6 billion for the spectrum.

So in all fairness, the FCC may succeed in this endeavor. But ultimately, the success of this new plan will come down to whether or not the winning bidder will be able to come up with a business model that actually allows companies bidding on this spectrum to make money.

May 14, 2008 11:34 AM PDT

FCC starts over with emergency network push

by Anne Broache
  • 1 comment

WASHINGTON--A high-profile government auction earlier this year failed to attract enough private investment dollars for airwaves dedicated to a nationwide broadband network for emergency responders. On Wednesday, federal regulators began trying to resuscitate the idea.

At its monthly meeting, the Federal Communications Commission unanimously voted to begin accepting comments from the public on a wide range of questions about what to do with that chunk of the 700Mhz spectrum, which is scheduled to be vacated by analog TV broadcasters next February as part of the congressionally mandated switch to all-digital programming. The spectrum is considered valuable both for commercial operators and emergency workers because of inherent properties that allow it to propagate over long distances and penetrate walls.

Ever since the September 11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, politicians have lamented the lack of interoperability among various emergency communications networks as a key obstacle in responding effectively to disasters that arise.

FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, a Republican, called Wednesday's action "the first step in a renewed effort to provide our nation's first responders with the broadband network they need and deserve."

The FCC first attempted to sell off the so-called "D" block of airwaves during a bigger auction that ultimately brought in a record $19.6 billion for the government when it concluded in March. In rules issued last summer, the regulators dictated that the license for the 10Mhz block would be set aside for creation of a nationwide public safety network, to be built through a "partnership" between the public and private sectors. Under that arrangement, public safety operators would have priority access to that spectrum in emergencies, but the winning commercial operator would also be allowed to use it on a secondary basis.

"Today all five of us are admitting we tried something and failed on it."
--FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell

But the auction didn't come anywhere close to attracting the FCC's $1.3 billion reserve price. Frontline Wireless, the only major contender in that segment of the auction, went out of business without comment before the auction even began. Some analysts say that's because of the current economic downturn, aggravated by the FCC's failure to lay out clear enough expectations for the network and its private investors.

"Today all five of us are admitting we tried something and failed on it," Republican Commissioner Robert McDowell said at Wednesday's meeting.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Martin said the agency plans to move as quickly as possible to revise its rules and begin the new auction. He said he's not sure whether they'll be able to pull that off by the end of the year, which is what he had previously hoped, but he does hope for the licenses to be assigned before the digital television conversion.

The FCC order adopted Wednesday sets the stage for the new rules, asking for ideas about how to handle a wide range of issues, from whether the public-private partnership model is still a wise idea to what technical requirements the shared network should meet. The comment period will be open for 30 days, with another 15 days for replies to the initial wave of suggestions.

Some consumer advocacy groups and members of Congress have already expressed concerns about the fate of the public safety spectrum block and asked the FCC to investigate what caused the auction to fail.

The FCC said its goal is to provide as clear guidance as possible to potential bidders in hopes of avoiding another abysmal turnout. Martin, however, said he hadn't ruled out the idea of scrapping a public-private partnership and simply auctioning off the spectrum to the highest bidder without any requirements to build an emergency network, with Congress potentially directing those proceeds to fund a public safety network.

The two Democratic Commissioners, Michael Copps and Jonathan Adelstein, said they would've preferred to see Congress dedicate federal funds to building such a network in the first place. But they said they were willing to give the public-private partnership approach another try, so long as it produces the same result.

"The longer we delay implementation of an interoperable broadband network, the more lives we put at risk," Adelstein said.

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May 5, 2008 5:53 PM PDT

Google to Verizon: Don't shirk open access responsibilities

by Marguerite Reardon
  • 4 comments

Google wants reassurance from Verizon Wireless that it will comply with open access rules that were part of the Federal Communications Commission's recent 700MHz auction.

Verizon Wireless was the winning bidder in the auction of an important sliver of spectrum licenses in the 700 MHz spectrum auction, which raised a record $19.6 billion for the U.S. Treasury. As part of the rules of the auction, the winner of the C-Block licenses is required to allow any device to connect to the network and is also required to allow any application to be downloaded on devices that use the network.

Verizon, which plans to use the new spectrum to build its 4G wireless broadband network, initially opposed the open access rules. And once the rules were adopted, it filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to find those conditions unlawful. It eventually withdrew its appeal after that court denied Verizon's request for an expedited review.

Google filed a petition with the FCC on Friday asking the agency to make sure that Verizon really plans to adhere to these rules before the FCC officially grants the company the licenses in the C-Block of the 700MHz auction.

"We want Verizon to acknowledge their responsibility to comply with the C-Block license conditions," said Richard Whitt, the Washington telecom and media counsel for Google who signed the petition. "In other words, we want them to live up to their side of the bargain. And we want their interpretation and implementation of the rule to be consistent with the spirit and intent in which the FCC adopted those rules."

Google, which also bid on the spectrum during the auction, was one of the main proponents of the open access rules and helped effectively lobby the FCC to include the rules as part of the auction.

Now that the auction is over, Google claims that it wants to make sure that Verizon will really comply with the rules so that software developers can begin working on new innovative applications. It wants Verizon to state publicly that it plans to adhere to all aspects of the open access rules, including a provision the company opposed in written and oral arguments to the FCC as well as in court papers filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals. Specifically, Google wants Verizon to say that it will allow any application to be downloaded on any device using the C-Block network.

Google contends that Verizon has argued previously that the rule should apply only to devices that consumers bring to the network and should not include devices that Verizon sells to its customers.

This reasoning appears to be similar to how Verizon has set up its Open Device Initiative, a program announced in November that will expedite the certification process for device makers to get new devices on Verizon's network. This program is separate from the 700MHz rules, but it could provide some insight into how the company interprets open access.

Whitt said that what Verizon is doing with the Open Device Initiative is commendable. He applauds the company's efforts to embrace openness as a business model, but he said that it's too early to tell if the initiative will live up to the rules that the FCC has mandated for C Block licenses in the 700MHz spectrum auction.

Verizon has not specifically said since the auction that it won't live up to its obligations under the rules of the auction. Whitt said that Google doesn't necessarily mistrust Verizon, but he said that the company is taking Ronald Reagan's advice to "trust but verify" that Verizon will do what's expected.

"We're not trying to delay the process," he said. "And we aren't trying to block Verizon from getting those licenses. What it comes down to is we want to make sure that Verizon Wireless acknowledges and accepts the conditions put on these licenses by the majority of the FCC."

According to FCC procedure, Verizon has an opportunity to file its reply to Google's petition within the next two weeks. A spokesman for the company said it would be doing that, but he didn't seemed alarmed by Google's petition.

"What a surprise," he said in an e-mail. "Google submits yet another regulatory filing to the Federal Communications Commission. Google's filing has no legal standing."

If Verizon responds to the petition and reiterates its position or decides not to address the issues, it will be up to the FCC to decide what it will do next. It is within the FCC's right to deny Verizon access to the licenses, Whitt said. But considering what is at stake, it's likely that won't happen. I'll be following this drama as it unfolds to see how Verizon responds.

April 3, 2008 6:17 PM PDT

Bidders in latest FCC auction start talking

by Marguerite Reardon
  • 1 comment

Companies bidding in the Federal Communications Commission's 700MHz spectrum auction are starting to talk.

The gag order that silenced those participating in the FCC's auction that ended last month was lifted late Thursday. Now companies are free to discuss their plans and strategies for bidding in the auction.

Verizon Wireless plans to use its newly won wireless spectrum licenses in the 700MHz auction to deliver 4G services, CTO Tony Melone told the wireless news site Unstrung.

Verizon Wireless paid nearly $10 billion for licenses in the C block, which are subject to a special FCC rule that requires the winner to allow any device to connect to a network using this spectrum. Verizon will use the spectrum to deploy a 4G network using long-term evolution (LTE) technology. The company expects to have an LTE service deployed in late 2009, the article quotes Melone as saying.

AT&T also said it plans to use the $6.6 billion worth of spectrum it bought in the B block to build a 4G network using LTE, according to RCRWirelessNews. The company will also use spectrum it won in the 2006 advanced wireless services (AWS) auction for the new network.

But the company doesn't plan to roll out the new network any time soon. According to RCR Wireless, AT&T's CTO doesn't expect the technology to be ready until 2012.

Other bidders in the auction have begun to talk, as well. Google, which had also been bidding on the C-block spectrum, said its main goal in bidding was to make sure the $4.6 billion reserve price was met so that the open-access rule would take effect. Richard Whitt, Washington telecom and media counsel, and Joseph Faber, corporate counsel for Google, wrote about Google's strategy on the company's Public Policy Blog on Thursday.

Cell phone chipmaker Qualcomm said it plans to use licenses it bought in the E block to provide more capacity for its mobile broadcast TV service called MediaFlo. Qualcomm spent a total of $558.1 million on licenses in the E block and a few licenses in the B block. The E-block licenses will expand MediaFlo coverage in areas such as Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.

And the B-block licenses, which cover parts of California and New Jersey, will be used for research and development.

March 21, 2008 3:01 PM PDT

Dish Network may be eyeing mobile TV biz

by Marguerite Reardon
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Could satellite TV provider Dish Network be planning to build a mobile TV service with its newly won 700Mhz spectrum?

wireless auction

That's the question that many analysts were asking after it was disclosed this week that the company, also known as EchoStar Communications, spent $711 million for a block of licenses in the auction that is ideal for offering mobile broadcast TV, according to a Reuters story.

The much-talked about auction ended Tuesday raising about $19.6 billion for the government. Wireless carriers AT&T and Verizon Wireless won the bulk of the spectrum.

The licenses that Dish bought were in the 6MHz sliver of spectrum called the E-Block. Because these licenses cover such a narrow band of spectrum, it would be hard for Dish to build a broadband wireless service to transmit two-way communication. This means that building a cellular phone or wireless broadband service using this spectrum is nearly impossible. But the spectrum could be used to send communications one-way, making it ideal for services such as broadcast TV.

Qualcomm already owns spectrum that is adjacent to the spectrum that Dish bought. Qualcomm uses its spectrum to deliver its MediaFlo TV mobile broadcast TV service. Qualcomm had also been bidding in the auction and was attempting to get the E-Block licenses. The fact that it wasn't able to get those licenses is a negative for the mobile technology company.

"It makes more sense for one provider to operate both pieces of spectrum," Steve Clement, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities told Reuters.

Dish hasn't said yet what it plans to do with the spectrum. Some analysts in the Reuters story speculate that it could cost the company between $3 billion and $5 billion to build a mobile TV network. The company said in a financial filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission in February that it might "make investments in or partner with others to expand our business into mobile and portable video, data and voice services."

There's also a possibility the company could work with Qualcomm.

Dish bid on the spectrum through its partner Frontier Wireless.

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March 20, 2008 4:13 PM PDT

Consumer watchdogs push for FCC auction investigation

by Marguerite Reardon
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Consumer watchdog groups and some lawmakers want to know why the block of spectrum reserved for public safety in the Federal Communications Commission's 700 MHz auction didn't hit its reserve price.

On Wednesday, a coalition of nine consumer advocacy groups, including the Consumer Federation of America, Consumers Union and the Media Access Project, sent a letter to the chairman of the FCC asking the agency to investigate whether the public safety requirements for "d" block license were too stringent. The groups also want the FCC to study whether plans for the shared public-private network are even still viable.

But consumer groups aren't the only ones concerned that the d block didn't sell. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John D. Dingell (D-Mich.) and telecommunications subcommittee chairman Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) are already planning a hearing for early next month to consider whether the public-private partnership model for building the wireless network for emergency responders should be changed or if the reserve price should be lowered.

FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has asked the agency's inspector general to look into complaints about the d-block auction, a Reuters story said.

The 700 MHz spectrum auction racked up a record $19.59 billion, but no one in the auction was willing to pony up the government's minimum price of $1.3 billion for the d block spectrum. The lone bid recorded for the d block was $472 million.

Under the rules set by the FCC before the auction started in January, the winner of the d-block licenses would be required to partner with local police, fire departments, and other public safety groups to provide a nationwide interoperable public safety network. This type of network is sorely missing in the U.S. And such a network was recommended to be built by the 9/11 Commission that investigated the events surrounding the terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C. in 2001.

A company called Cyren Call had been selected to act as the intermediary between public safety agencies and whichever private sector company won the spectrum licenses.

But even before the spectrum auction began, the only major contender in the auction, a company called Frontline Wireless, went out of business. The company had apparently been unable to secure funding.

Now, consumer groups and lawmakers are asking whether the reserve price was too high or if the strict public safety requirements were too difficult for a company in the private sector to meet.

In the meantime, the FCC has officially "de-linked" the d-block spectrum from the other blocks offered in the auction, so that it can be auctioned off later. The FCC said in a press release on Wednesday that it will not re-offer the d block spectrum immediately in the subsequent Auction 76. Instead, it will consider its options for how to license this spectrum in the future.

That said FCC Chairman Martin and the other commissioners said they were committed to making spectrum available for a nationwide interoperable public safety network before the February 2009 Digital TV transition.

"It is a travesty that our nation has failed, so far, to meet this urgent public safety challenge," Commissioner Michael Copps, said in a statement. "Now we have another chance to build the network that public safety and the American public need. I remain committed to working with my colleagues to succeed in this most important task."

March 20, 2008 1:38 PM PDT

Verizon wins 'open access' licenses in FCC auction

by Marguerite Reardon
  • Post a comment

It's official: Verizon Wireless has won licenses for nationwide coverage in the C-Block in the 700MHz spectrum auction conducted by the Federal Communications Commission.

This means that Verizon, not Google, will control the spectrum that is required by the FCC to adhere to special open-access rules.

Google had lobbied the FCC last summer to include several rules in the 700MHz spectrum auction that mandated open access. The FCC adopted only one of Google's proposed rules, which requires the winner to allow any device or application to connect to a network that uses this spectrum.

Google made good on its promise to bid in this sliver of spectrum in the auction. But as I predicted months ago, the company wasn't really serious about winning the auction. Instead, it looks like it just wanted to push the price of the auction above the $4.6 billion threshold to ensure that the open-access rule would go into effect.

Google apparently did not win any licenses in the auction, FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., Wednesday, according to The Wall Street Journal.

It's not surprising that Verizon won the C-Block licensees. Analysts had been predicting that for weeks.

Now it looks like the company will include this spectrum in its new open-device initiative. In November, the company announced that it would allow subscribers to bring their own phone or other wireless device to its network.

On Tuesday, Verizon released specifications and certification testing information for devices that it will allow on this open network.

Of course, the very fact that the company still requires device makers to certify their products for use on its network means that it isn't completely "open." But the new certification process is streamlined and will allow device makers to get through certification in weeks rather than in months.

Verizon also won other 700MHz spectrum licenses. It was the largest winner of licenses in the A-Block, which are midsize licenses. And it won 77 licenses in the B-Block, the smallest regional licenses that were being auctioned.

Satellite TV provider EchoStar Communications also won enough spectrum licenses to give the company nearly nationwide wireless coverage. EchoStar and DirecTV Group had dropped out of the Advanced Wireless Service auction in 2006. AT&T also won a large number of the smallest licenses that were auctioned.

The auction, which sold spectrum being freed from the transition to digital TV in 2009, closed on Tuesday, raising a record $19.6 billion.

March 19, 2008 4:00 AM PDT

Assessing success in the FCC's 700MHz auction

by Marguerite Reardon
  • 11 comments

News.com's Anne Broache co-wrote this report.

The Federal Communications Commission generated $19.6 billion in the 700MHz spectrum that ended Tuesday, but the true success of the auction will take months or even years to assess.

There's no question that the auction, which began on January 24, was a monetary success for the government--it raised a record $19.6 billion in 261 rounds of bidding. During a conference call with reporters Tuesday after the bidding closed, FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said the 700MHz auction was the most successful auction the agency has ever conducted, raising more money than all previous auctions put together, excluding the Advanced Wireless Services, or AWS, auction in 2006.

Wireless image

"The $19.6 billion generated by the auction nearly doubled congressional estimates of $10.2 billion," Martin said. "All other 68 auctions conducted by the FCC in the past 15 years collectively generated a total of only $19.1 billion in receipts. Even with open-platform and aggressive build-out obligations, each of these blocks sold for more than AWS-1 blocks with comparable bandwidth and license areas."

Despite the obvious financial success of the auction, it will be a long time before it's clear whether the FCC was successful in achieving some of its broader policy goals, such as creating a more open wireless marketplace and a nationwide interoperable public safety wireless network.

The 700MHz spectrum has long been considered the last bit of beachfront wireless real estate left in the air. The spectrum, which is being vacated by the switch to digital TV in 2009, is considered valuable because of inherent properties that allow it to propagate over long distances and penetrate walls. Some experts believe the spectrum is ideal for offering robust, affordable wireless broadband services.

The spectrum auction attracted a broad range of companies, including nontraditional players such as Internet search giant Google and wireless technology provider Qualcomm. Traditional phone companies Verizon Wireless and AT&T were also interested in getting their hands on the spectrum.

Trying a new approach
As part of its rule making for this auction, the FCC tried something new. It set specific rules for two of the five blocks of wireless spectrum. For the C block, it established rules that require license winners to build a network allowing any device to operate on it. The C block reached its threshold of $4.6 billion in only 17 rounds of bidding, triggering this open-access rule. But the D block, set aside to build a nationwide public-safety network, did not meet its reserve price.

Google, which had pushed for open-access rules for some of the spectrum, was bidding on the open-access C-block licenses. But Rebecca Arbogast, a principal telecommunications analyst with Stifel Nicolaus, said she wouldn't be surprised if Verizon Wireless, and not open-access proponent Google, takes home that slice of spectrum. (Google had committed to bidding up to $4.6 billion, but the final price for that block was $4.75 billion, according to FCC figures released Wednesday.)

"When it finally came time to go into the auction, I think they (Google) were pretty firm about wanting to enforce the open-access conditions as much as it could be enforced, but also being firm on not really being interested in becoming a network operator," she said. "I think they were a willing loser."

Why open access matters
The open-access requirement is significant because today, U.S. wireless operators have tight control over which devices can be used on their networks and which applications can be used on those handsets. Google and other companies, such as Skype, have complained that this is too restrictive.

Verizon, which has traditionally been the most strict operator in the U.S. about what it lets on its network, recently said it would allow non-certified devices on its network. On Wednesday, the company is hosting a developer conference in New York where it's expected to reveal details of the first version of specifications for these new open-access devices for its network.

If Verizon Wireless is the winner of the C-block licenses, it will likely include this spectrum in its open-access plans. But until details about the actual service plan are revealed, it's difficult to say just how serious Verizon is about open access. If the service is priced too high or customers find that buying their own handsets is too expensive, the whole notion of an open-access network could be moot.

Still, Chairman Martin said on the conference call with reporters Tuesday evening that he was pleased the auction had prompted the open-access rules to take effect.

"With the open-platform requirements on one-third of the spectrum, consumers will be able to use the wireless device of their choice on those networks and download whatever software or applications they want on it," he said. "The open platform will help foster innovation on the edge of the network, while creating more choices and greater freedom for consumers to use the wireless devices and applications of their choice."

Another slice of the spectrum called the D block was set aside to build a nationwide network for public-safety operators. But that segment didn't attract the FCC's $1.3 billion reserve price. In fact, it didn't attract any bids beyond the $472 million opening bid.

Stifel Nicolaus's Arbogast said she thought a combination of factors caused the lackluster bidding on the D block, including lack of certainty over what was expected of the public-safety network that had to be built, and general tightening of capital markets.

... Read more
March 18, 2008 2:51 PM PDT

FCC's wireless airwaves sales raises $19.6 billion

by Anne Broache
  • 2 comments

One of the U.S. government's most significant sales of wireless airwaves concluded on Tuesday, racking up nearly $19.6 billion in bids over 261 rounds.

The 700MHz spectrum, which is currently being used to air analog TV broadcasts, was put on the auction block by the Federal Communications Commission in January. It's scheduled to be freed up by February 2009 to make way for all-digital broadcasts.

The slice of airwaves has proven attractive to potential bidders--including Google, Verizon, and others--not only because it's one of the last remaining chunks of beachfront spectrum, but because of its inherent properties, which mean the waves can travel long distances and propagate through walls. Some say those characteristics make it ideal for offering more robust, affordable wireless broadband services.

The FCC, in a nod to requests from Google and consumer advocacy groups, dictated that about one-third of the spectrum must abide by "open access" principles, requiring whoever wins control of it to allow consumers to operate whatever mobile devices and applications they like.

Another slice of the spectrum was intended to be used to build a nationwide network for public safety operators. But that segment reportedly did not attract the reserve price that the FCC had set, which is potentially a serious setback for proponents of that plan.

It wasn't immediately clear when the FCC would reveal the identities of the winning bidders.

The FCC, which operated the auction, was expected to unveil more details about its close during a 2:45 p.m. PDT conference call with reporters. Stay tuned to CNET News.com for more.

March 7, 2008 12:41 PM PST

FCC auction nears conclusion, so what's next?

by Marguerite Reardon
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As bidding on the 700MHz spectrum auction starts to wind down, a group of business school students predicts it will be long time before consumers see any of the promised new services resulting from the auction.

The 700MHz auction, which is reissuing spectrum originally allocated for analog TV, has been touted as one of the most important spectrum auctions the Federal Communications Commission has ever conducted. Not only was it expected to raise a great deal of money for the government, but as the last bit of prime wireless spectrum that will be made available for a long time, many people believed it would pave the way to a brave new world of wireless broadband.

The hope going into the auction was that it would open up the airwaves to at least one new nontraditional player, such as Google, which would help transform the wireless market and introduce more open services.

Now, the auction, which has already raised a whopping $19.59 billion since it began in January, will likely end in the next few days, according to the Reuters news service. Under the FCC's rules, the auction will continue until the bidding stops.

So what's likely to change for consumers after the auction concludes? According to a competitive intelligence war game initiated by market research firm Fuld & Company, not much, at least for the next few years. Carriers aren't expected to even have the new infrastructure built within the next two to three years.

Students from four top business schools--University of Chicago, Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, Harvard Business School, and MIT's Sloan School of Management--took on identities of four companies with a stake in the auction outcome--Google, Intel, AT&T Mobility and Vulcan Capital. The students then predicted the strategies of the companies post auction. Results of the game were published on Thursday.

Here's a look at some of the other predictions. The Google team, made up of students from University of Chicago, predicted that the search engine giant will partner with a leading wireless service provider, possibly AT&T. And the group believes that it will share 20 percent of its advertising revenue with whoever owns the licenses. Separate from the auction, the group also predicts that Google's new Android handset software will run into resistance among chipmakers and handset manufacturers, who have different business interests than Google.

The Northwestern group, which took on the identity of Intel, believes the chipmaker will attack the wireless broadband market through its WiMax initiative. The company will likely work with PC makers to embed WiMax chips and help them shrink their devices to compete directly with smartphones, the students said.

The teams also said that adult content was likely to be the killer application that will drive wireless broadband adoption.

For the most part, the predictions were not earth-shattering. I've been saying for a long time that Google would be better served if it worked with a carrier rather than build its own network. Intel has also been pretty open about its strategy for putting WiMax chips into PCs. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that porn sells. In fact, the adult content industry has been at the forefront of most new developments in technology, from the VCR to the explosion in Internet use. So it's hardly surprising that faster wireless broadband would spur people to get their kicks on the mobile Web. In fact, lots of people all over the world are already doing that even on slower-speed wireless networks.

It's still somewhat unclear how much longer the auction will last. Bidding has slowed over the past several days. But some experts have said that it could be over as early as next week. Neither the FCC nor any of the companies bidding in the auction have commented on when it will end. The identity of bidders has been a secret throughout the auction. But the FCC is expected to reveal the names of spectrum license winners within days of the auction's conclusion.

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