With gas over $4 per gallon, on average, across the country, there is now a carpet bagger economy on the Toyota Prius.
Many dealers will still sell a new one at MSRP, but you are likely to wait 10 to 12 weeks before seeing a car. Yes, if you act quickly you can buy a used Prius, but this is where the real price gouging occurs. Case in point, a basic 2007 Prius with no options and 29,000 miles will cost you around $27,000. If you bought a brand-new car identical to this in 2007, it would have cost around $24,000, and Kelly Blue Book, the authority on used car prices, says that this car is worth just under $23k today.
Obviously, there is a new supply-and-demand curve in the market. Nothing illegal mind you; this is capitalism at work, but it just doesn't seem right. Gas may go up to $6 per gallon, or oil may go down to $80 per barrel; no one really knows, and there are bulls and bears forecasting both extremes. Since rationality has given way to speculation and panic, my advice to would-be Prius buyers is:
1. Do the math. A nicely equipped 2007 Honda Civic EX with equal mileage carries a suggested retail price of about $18,300. Assuming 30 miles per gallon for the Civic, and 45 miles per gallon for the Prius, it could take around 13 years to recoup the extra money for the Prius at $5 per gallon (assuming 12,000 miles per year of driving). Now I know that there are a lot of assumptions in this formula, but suffice it to say that when you do the math, the Civic seems like a better deal overall--not to mention that the EX has a Sunroof to boot.
2. Wait. Delaying a Prius purchase could have two benefits. First off, buyers get to see whether the price of gas goes up or down. If it does go down as some predict, the Prius premium is likely to disappear faster than a Lakers fan after the NBA finals. The other advantage to waiting is that the highbrow Prius will finally get some competition moving forward. Honda is rumored to have a 2009 hybrid Fit and brand-new five-passenger hybrid--with better gas mileage than today's Prius--waiting in the wings. Rumor also has it that VW, Hyundai, Ford, and others aren't far behind with high-mileage alternatives of their own. Finally, in 2009 or 2010 Toyota will introduce its own next-generation Prius that may offer plug-in capabilities and better gas mileage as well.
Supply and demand are constant market conditions, but shortages come and go. Is a used Prius really worth a $3,000 to $4,000 premium? The answer to this question can be summed in two sagacious words: caveat emptor!
Your next car might know you better than most of your friends or family do.
Stanford conducts a wide array of automotive research. A team representing the university has competed in DARPA's Urban Grand Challenge, an event that showcases breakthroughs in self-driving cars. Stanford's robot, Junior, was the first to cross the finish line in the competition last November.
(Credit: Stefanie Olsen/CNET News.com)If current research pans out, the car of the future could figure out not only where you drive, what sort of music you listen to, news preferences, what you like to eat, or whom you are calling--but it might also know how your mood affects your driving. And eventually, it could turn into the ultimate backseat driver, taking full control if it's not satisfied with the way you're manning the steering wheel.
It might sound like something from the distant future, but researchers at Stanford University are working on all manner of technological improvements to the automobile. They're hoping features like camera detection of face movements, voice analysis, and sensors in the steering wheel will result in cars that can accurately detect a driver's mood and make appropriate adjustments if it's affecting their driving.
Clifford Nass, a professor at Stanford and director of its Communication between Humans and Interactive Media (CHIMe) Lab, believes autonomous driving will not be limited by the technology itself, but rather how much responsibility people are willing to outsource to their cars. We have already seen them give up some control. Antilock brakes and stabilization systems, for instance, are already standard features, and the next step could manage everything from imposing speed controls for lead-footed drivers to using sensors trained on road surfaces to guide the car by itself.
The lab is also looking at ways in which cars can improve someone's driving by giving them audible feedback. Some drivers are already having conversations with their cars every day, interacting with navigation or voice-operated music systems, for instance. But that's still a relatively new technology.
"Talking directly to your car is not all that common...but increasingly, the car is inviting you to talk. What is going to happen next is cars talking to you. There is a great interest in how cars can teach you to be a better driver," Nass said in an interview with CNET News.com at the university campus.
Researchers are busy exploring how drivers behave in simulated situations, and they've found that feedback from the dashboard isn't always welcome. In trials, a synthetic car voice might tell people, "You're not driving very well and you need to pay more attention." That message actually tended to worsen people's driving habits as they got angry, and with more sincere warnings like, "You really need to be more careful," driving deteriorated even more until the voice insisted that the driver pull over--the driver getting so furious that the trial ended with an accident, (fortunately, just a virtual one).
The tone of the car's voice is important. Studies show that happy people drive best when they get advice from a happy sounding voice (listen to MP3), while the performance of drivers who are upset improves by 40 percent if the voice is more subdued flat (listen to MP3).
For drowsy drivers, some intellectual challenges can work out well. Stanford tested people by playing them Swedish language learning tapes and found that the ones who repeated the sentences stayed more alert.
"A small amount of talkback makes people stay more awake," said Nass, who thinks it could be beneficial for a car to engage its driver in a little conversation. There are cultural differences between countries that also need to be addressed. Some years ago, the German car maker BMW had a product recall of its 5-series because German male drivers could not stand the female voice in the navigation system. In driving simulations in Japan, people got upset if the mood recognition system used in simulations told them they were sad, while that was not a problem for people doing the same tests in the U.S.
Another goal is to develop cars that help elderly people, since graying populations all over the world continue to drive, but might be aided by warning systems for red lights, stop signs, or pedestrians. Stanford has teamed up with the American Association for Retired People for this development project.
Inexperienced young drivers have a whole other set of problems, as it takes 10 years to become a good driver, Nass said.
"One possibility is to let the car take over; like when entering a highway, the car can hit the gas for you," Nass said.
Two issues likely arise down the road are advertisements (would you want your car to deliver commercial messages?) and personal integrity (do you want insurance companies to monitor your driving behavior?).
"What the car industry is going to do (with all these technology advances) is a great question," Nass said.
Car manufacturers all over the world are following the experiments with great interest. After all, Silicon Valley has, in a very short time, become the R&D center for many car-tech companies as cars get new interface technology and become computing devices. "Everybody's opening up facilities here. This is the place now for car research," Nass said.
Last year, Volkswagen gave $5.7 million as a gift to Stanford's new CarLab, an effort to pool all car-related research into one place. The CarLab will be formally opened in September. One important focus will be the transition from non-autonomous cars to a vehicle that can operate itself.
"How willing will people be to let the car take over for you? That is one of the main missions with CarLab," Nass said.
I already own a hybrid (a Ford Escape) but am toying with the idea of going for the gusto by trading in the old Ford for a gas-sipping Honda Civic or Toyota Prius hybrid. When I bought my Ford, Uncle Sam sweetened the deal by giving me a tax credit of around $2,000, so my expectation was a similar financial incentive if I went for a more economical model. Not so fast! In its infinite wisdom, the federal government created one of the dumber set of guidelines you could ever imagine.
Once a manufacturer (for instance, Ford, Honda, Toyota, etc.) exceeds sales of 60,000 hybrid vehicles, the IRS phases out tax credits over the course of a year. Since Toyota is killing it with the Prius, it passed the 60,000 mark years ago.
So here's the net effect. If you decide to buy a Prius, decrease the United States' dependence on foreign oil, help improve national security, and do your part to reduce carbon emissions, you get nothing in return because the federal government came up with some lame-brain quota system based on manufacturers and brands of cars. Ridiculous!
I know I'm out on a limb, but I firmly believe that with gas at over $4 per gallon in many areas, the federal government should be reducing the speed limit, pushing states to eliminate tolls, and absolutely persuading taxpayers to buy cars with higher mpg. Given the energy goals we hear everyday from the presidential candidates, the cap on hybrid tax credits is just plain stupid.
Victor and Kenwood said Monday that they plan to become one company by October 1 this year.
The two Japanese audio equipment makers will combine to form JVC Kenwood Holdings, which will be based in Yokohama, near Tokyo. Victor, a subsidiary of electronics giant Matsushita, is best known for its JVC brand. Under the agreement, Kenwood Chairman Haruho Kawahara will become the holding company's chairman, while Victor President Kunihiko Sato will become the new company's president.
It came in fits and starts, but the two have finally settled on a merger agreement. It was first discussed last year, and since then the two have agreed to develop future car and home audio systems together.
The new business will focus on car electronics, home electronics, and professional wireless systems, and will also explore new product segments. The two companies are combining in hopes of reducing costs and scaling their distribution in the already-crowded Japanese consumer electronics market. For the same reason, Victor said last month it would no longer make flat-panel TVs for the Japanese market.
Dash Express
(Credit: Corinne Schulze/CNET Networks)It's been almost two years since Dash Navigation first announced its Dash Express portable navigation system, and we're happy to say that you can now finally get your hands on this device. The Dash Express is unlike any other portable navigation system on the market today because it offers two-way connectivity (cellular and Wi-Fi), giving drivers access to a whole new world of information via the Internet and the network of other Dash-connected users. You can conduct live (and more relevant) Web searches via Yahoo Local search; get real-time traffic data; wirelessly send addresses to the system; and much more. It really adds value to portable navigation devices, and it's the type of innovation that we think will take GPS to the next level--so much so that we even gave it a Best of CES 2007 award. So did it deliver? Was it worth the wait? Well now, you'll just have to read our full review to find out, won't ya?
It may look like a British milk truck but it's really a lithium ion battery powered vehicle concept from Nissan that might be a Scion xB alternative. Brian Cooley gives us a first look at the 2008 New York International auto show.
Nissan showed off its electric-powered concept vehicle at the 2008 New York auto show. Based on Nissan's existing Cube small car, currently sold in Japan, the Denki Cube concept uses an electric powertrain with lithium ion batteries.
Two years ago, Zap, the electric transportation specialist out of Santa Rosa, Calif., talked about coming out with a luxury, all-electric SUV called the Zap-X in late 2008 or early 2009. Things have changed a bit.
The company now plans to kick off its electric car strategy with the Alias, a three-wheeled electric car, CEO Steve Schneider said in a phone interview. The company hopes to have a working prototype later this year and then start selling cars in 2009.
Zap and China's Youngman Automotive Group, through a joint venture called Detroit Electric, will then follow up with an economy car, roughly coming out in 2010 or 2011, then a four-seater sedan similar in size and price to a Honda Civic. Subsequently, it will come out with a four-seater sedan that will compete in the Audi class.
An artist's rendering of the Zap Alias.
(Credit: Zap)The Zap-X is still on the road map, but now it's coming later, Schneider asserted.
The switch--starting at the low-end and going up rather than starting high and trickling down--comes as a result of circumstances, necessity, and new partnerships, Schneider said. Zap signed a deal with China's Youngman motors in 2007. Youngman is China's larger domestic car manufacturer and has several models on the street there.
The idea now is to take gas-burning cars produced by Youngman and retrofit them for electric engines and batteries. Manufacturing will become cheaper because a production line already exists. Miles Automotive, which plans to come out with an electric car in 2009 based around an existing Chinese gas-burning car, is doing the same.
The strategy, though, involves a large risk. Batteries remain costly for electric cars. A huge portion of the $98,000 cost of the Tesla Roadster lay in the battery, and the Tesla can only go around 250 miles on a charge. Economy cars in the $35,000 price band only have a range of around 100 miles, a short distance that makes consumers wary. (Toyota and General Motors have both said that the limited range on earlier electric cars was a big reason they didn't sell well.) Some companies are contemplating urging buyers of electric economy cars to occasionally use gas-burning cars for those days they need to drive more than 100 miles. Need to go to Tahoe? Here's your SUV.
The Zap-X SUV, as illustrated on Zap's home page.
(Credit: Zap)Regulatory issues are part of the reason that Zap's three-wheeler will come out first. Three-wheelers are classified as motorcycles so the safety and crash testing regulations are easier to meet. Venture Vehicles, which also wants to come out with a three-wheeler in 2009, is following the same strategy.
"The production time is relatively straightforward. It is only a matter of how fast we can get them through the regulatory framework," Schneider said.
The marketing will also de-emphasize the Zap name, which has had an up-and-down history with investors and consumers. Zap will sell cars that run at 55 miles per hour and less, but the freeway legal cars (which includes everything from the economy car up) will be sold under the Detroit Electric moniker. Detroit Electric was actually a car manufacturer from 1906 to 1939.
"They have sold more electric cars than anyone," Schneider said. The company liked the history and the brand and so decided to buy it.
As part of a promotion, Zap will sell a commemorative version of an electric car that Detroit came out with 100 years ago.
Many have been skeptical of Zap in the past. The company tried to bring Smart Cars to the U.S. in a deal that didn't get off the ground. Nonetheless, the little company does seem to be able to land interesting alliances. It recruited Albert Lam, former managing director at Lotus Engineering, to serve on its board of directors. Lam was instrumental in linking the deal with Youngman. And the company landed millions from investors in Dubai. Lotus also works with Zap.
Carly Fiorina, the former head of Hewlett-Packard, is stepping into a high-profile role in Republican presidential hopeful John McCain's campaign.
The Republican National Committee on Friday tapped Fiorina to be chairman of fundraising for get-out-the-vote efforts and a leading surrogate for the campaign, according to the San Jose Mercury News. She'll apparently be touring the country in an effort to get folks to rally behind McCain and his economic policies.
Since her stormy reign at HP, Fiorina has been slipping further into the political realm. During her lecture series in the San Francisco Bay Area last year, her discussion veered swiftly from business-related matters to political rhetoric, including the U.S.' role in Iraq and what she called the government's risk-aversion.
Fiorina reportedly has been a longtime backer of McCain, as has Cisco Systems CEO John Chambers.
SAN JOSE, Calif.--Silicon Valley is sparking a revolution in alternative-fuel autos, but it may take awhile--too long perhaps--to effect change in Detroit, according to a panel of auto executives.
A group of electric and traditional carmakers spoke here Friday at the Joint Venture Silicon Valley conference about innovation, why alternative carmakers are attracted to the Valley, and whether nimble upstarts can overshadow the big Detroit automakers. The consensus was that Silicon Valley is commanding the attention of the auto world, whether it will dominate or not.
"We're not going to take over China or Detroit, but every carmaker has an outpost here and is watching what people are doing," said Felix Kramer, founder of nonprofit plug-in hybrid initiative CalCars. "This can be a real incubation area for new technology in automotive."
To be sure, Silicon Valley is rife with change when it comes to the merger of technology and autos.
Volkswagen, for example, recently funded Stanford University in order to develop a new car lab whose mission is to study "cutting-edge research in safety, comfort, and fun for the consumer driving the car," said Sebastian Thrun, while speaking at an artificial intelligence conference Thursday night. The lab, which will open later this year, will focus on new technologies such as computer-assisted driving--for instance, a car that could park itself. Eventually, self-driving or smart cars could help make driving more efficient and safe, Thrun said.
"When kids can drive themselves to soccer, and do away with the soccer parent, humanity will be better off," Thrun said.
Elon Musk's Tesla Motors, also based in Silicon Valley, is delivering its first production models of an electric two-seater roadster, for a price of nearly $100,000. It eventually plans to sell a four-door electric car for about half the price and then even more affordable models later.
Another Palo Alto upstart called Project Better Place, founded by former SAP executive Shai Agassi, recently announced that it will team with Renault and Nissan car companies, along with the Israeli government, to develop electric cars and electric-battery stations in that nation. It has raised $200 million to produce lithium-ion batteries and the facilities to recharge those batteries--and its cars are expected to be ready by 2011.
Google, based in Mountain View, also recently announced Recharge It, a project to convert hybrids to plug-in hybrids and test vehicle-to-grid technology, in which the vehicle's battery powers the electrical grid. Milpitas-based OEMtek is charging people $12,500 to convert their Toyota Prius into a more efficient car (getting 100 miles per gallon vs. 45 miles per gallon) with a larger battery.
San Dimas-based AC Propulsion, which makes an all-electric Scion eBox for $70,000, is also opening up an office in Palo Alto to service customers here, according to Tom Gage, CEO of AC Propulsion who spoke on the panel. (Gage drives an eBox, an electric car that gets 120 miles on one charge. The company's first customer was actor Tom Hanks.) AC Propulsion also supplies technology to Tesla Motors.
So why is Silicon Valley such a hotbed for alternative cars? It's the customers.
"The driving public here is among the most enlightened in environmental and policy issues," Gage said.
CalCars' Kramer, added to the sentiment: "The plug-in hybrid is the first thing to come here because of popular demand," he said, referring to the movement behind CalCars, Ourpower.org, and Google's plug-in effort. "There's a different customer here in the Valley, and that's why we favor this area."
Backing up his point, 30 percent of the people in the audience said in a poll that they drove a hybrid to the conference.
Byron Shaw, managing director of the Advanced Technology Office at General Motors and who's based here, spoke on the panel about the goals of GM, which is one of the first major car companies to say that it will develop a plug-in hybrid. Shaw said that the company plans to introduce the first rendition of the plug-in Chevy Volt in 2010 along with similar versions for the Saturn. He said that GM will also sell a bevy of alternative-fuel vehicles in the next decade, including electric cars, fuel cell cars, and vehicle-to-grid plug-ins.
"There's an opportunity to bring Silicon Valley and the auto industry together because the two don't always march to the same drum," he said. "We have a wealth of experience of building vehicles, but there are things changing that now, such as the conventional cost of fossil fuels. In the same way Silicon Valley has driven down costs of technology, it may happen with the auto industry, too."
That said, GM is slower than the technology industry, he said, and the company is driven by a fickle consumer. One consideration, for example, is that the battery for a hybrid plug-in must operate well in cold climates like Minnesota as well as warmer places like Phoenix. "The supply base just isn't there for electric vehicles," he said.
AC Propulsion's Gage said that after working in Detroit for eight years, he's seen that car companies can change for the consumer, but it will be especially challenging in the alternative fuel market.
"It's a major transformation for the car companies," he said, "the power train is different; fuel sources are different. We have to start small and build a market base, and it has to appeal to consumers. To come back to this, Silicon Valley is more advanced in this area. Grassroots efforts will continue."
CalCars' Kramer went further with his criticism.
"They're being too slow. It's a major wedge for climate change. They need to learn about versioning--getting cars on the road and seeing what people like," Kramer said.
The panelists finished by predicting how many cars would be electric or plug-in hybrid by 2028. Two of the men, Shaw and Kramer, forecast that it would be 80 percent of cars on the road by then. Gage was more conservative at only 20 percent. The question is: Will that be enough to turn the tide of global warming?







