Nanotech - The Circuits Blog

SANTA CLARA, Calif.--Thin is getting thinner. That's Intel's message as a wave of affordable, ultra-thin laptops is expected to break this summer.

Erik Reid, Intel's director of marketing for Mobile Products Group

(Credit: Brooke Crothers)

Last week, I sat down with Erik Reid, director of marketing for the Mobile Products Group at Intel. Reid described Intel's strategy for its Consumer Ultra-Low-Voltage (CULV) processors--a segment that Intel describes as "ultra-thin"--and the chipmaker's first "Nehalem" mobile processors.

Ultra-thin is a big move for Intel. This will be Intel's primary mobile market focus in the next few months--until Nehalem appears later this year, according to Reid.

"It's a big change in the market. Consumer ULV has great battery life, very low TDPs," Reid said.

TDP, or thermal design power, describes the power envelope of a processor. For example, the current Apple MacBook Air uses Intel ultra-low-voltage processors with a TDP about half of the 35-watt rating for mainstream Intel mobile processors. Some of the lowest-power processors for the ultra-thin CULV category may be only a few watts more than the power-sipping Atom--which is rated at no more than 2.5 watts.

And what will consumers notice the most? Aside from good battery life, the laptop's aesthetics. "Systems can't ever be too thin. So thin will be a significant change in the industry and we're very pleased with the traction that we're seeing leading up to the introduction of those products," Reid said.

Prices will also get consumers' attention. "The affordability thing is really important. Look at your MacBook Air and think about that in terms of being available at different price points," said Intel spokesman Bill Calder.

Intel's initial processors for the ultra-thin category will be single core--like the current SU3500 processor. And the new chips won't all necessarily be Core 2--Intel's current mobile architecture--though Intel wouldn't elaborate on what other architectures--such as Pentium--it may use.

And size? Reid said some laptops will be 13.3-inch (diagonal screen size) designs, some will be a little larger, some will range down to 11.6-inch designs.

And what about cannibalization of the Netbook market--and vice-versa? "We're seeing very little cannibalization," Reid said. "Consumer ULVs are full-featured PCs. Price points will overlap. You might have some premium Netbooks in price bands where you'll see ULV," he said.

"We don't call it a Netbook if it's more than a 10.2-inch," Calder said. "The more that we can be clear about that and help people understand what each one is optimized for, the better the experience they will have," according to Reid. Netbooks are companion devices, Reid said. A person with a notebook is adding to their purchase when they get a Netbook. There are relatively few cases in which the Netbook is being used as the primary device, according to Reid. (Some readers may disagree with this.)

A notebook from MSI portends the crush of lower-cost, Intel-based MacBook-Air-like laptop designs to come.

The MSI X-Slim series herald Apple MacBook Air-like laptops without the luxury laptop tax

(Credit: MSI)

As I've written before, consumer ultra-low-voltage (CULV) chips will arrive in earnest this summer. The X-Slim X340 from MSI (Micro-Star International) is using the ULV SU3500, a precursor to lower-cost CULV Intel chips to come.

(Note: On April 19, Intel cut prices (PDF) on a wide range of processors. Though the SU3500 didn't see any cuts, the prices on its low-power cousins, the SL9400 and SU9400, were reduced 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively.)

What is CULV exactly? Well, one thing it's not is the Netbook-centric Atom processor: the 1.4GHz SU3500 is based on Intel's higher-performance mainstream Core 2 architecture. But like the Atom, it's a single-core chip. Single core means low power. In this case, the SU3500 draws only 5.5 watts, more than the Atom but a fraction of the dual-core mainstream Intel mobile chips rated at 25 and 35 watts. It also comes in a small 22mm chip package.

And what does all this mean? Better performance than Atom-based Netbooks. And in a well-designed system, longer battery life than a mainstream laptop.

Oh, and lower prices than luxury laptops like the Apple MacBook Air and Dell Adamo, which start at around $1,800. The MSI X-slim 340 with the SU3500 was launched this week in Japan and the higher-end version starts at around $1,000. U.S.-based reports say it is priced at $1,100.

The ultra-thin HP Pavilion dv2 laptop powered by AMD's Athlon "Neo" chip is also in this price range. AMD CEO Dirk Meyer said Tuesday that the single-core Neo processor will get a dual-core sibling dubbed "Congo" by summer.

Let the low-cost laptop competition begin.

Advanced Micro Devices' server roadmap is solid but its mainstream mobile lineup is languishing.

AMD's six-core "Istanbul" processor release was moved up to June

(Credit: AMD)

First, the good news. These days AMD is walking the talk. This is a radical change from the AMD of 2007-2008, which always seemed to have a hopper full of Intel-vanquishing paper processors that, if they did materialize, disappointed.

Fast forward to AMD's Tuesday earnings announcement, when the company said it was actually moving up the introduction its most sophisticated processor, the six-core Istanbul, to June.

And AMD has proved its silicon mettle at large server customers such as IBM and Sun Microsystems--the latter's executive vice president John Fowler had nothing but praise for AMD processors in high-end Sun server systems.

In a "Global Webcast" on server technology Wednesday, Patrick Patla, a vice president in AMD's server and workstation business, revealed a strong roadmap, saying that 8- and 12-core "Magny-Cours" processors will appear in 2010. "We're currently working on new processors which we expect will deliver more than 35 times the performance of the original single-core AMD Opteron processor released in 2003," Patla said in a statement.

Intel, of course, will also bring out many-core processors, but AMD is keeping pace, and, according to people who should know, like Sun's Fowler, maybe more than keeping pace.

Now, the bad news. This post today on CNET's Crave blog says it all: "One of our biggest issues with HP's Pavilion dv3z was its AMD processor, keeping it from beating out the performance of comparable 13- and 14-inch laptops with Intel Core 2 Duo CPUs." This is, by no means, the first review that expresses this sentiment. In short, AMD mobile platforms consistently come up short in the high-profile, burgeoning laptop market. Will AMD close the gap in 2009?

Maybe one answer to that question is AMD's Neo chip that powers the low-cost, ultra-thin HP Pavilion dv2 laptop. More than a Netbook but less than a mainstream laptop, this kind of sleek mobile device could eventually eclipse the high-end Netbook segment.

AMD CEO Dirk Meyer said Tuesday that the single-core Neo processor will get a dual-core sibling dubbed "Congo" by summer. A dual-core processor in this low-cost, MacBook-Air-for-the-masses category is a compelling proposition. AMD needs to stay ahead of the game, especially when Intel brings out chips for this category in the May-June timeframe.

Intel Chief Executive Paul Otellini said low-cost, ultrathin laptops with future Intel processors will be a big trend, a development that could upset the Netbook cart.

HP Pavilion dv2: harbinger of things to come

(Credit: CNET Reviews)

During Intel's first-quarter earnings conference call Monday afternoon, Otellini had a surprising amount to say about Intel's upcoming consumer ultra-low-voltage (CULV) processors, designed to fit into future ultrathin laptops that are expected to be priced significantly below $1,700-and-up luxury laptops such as the Apple MacBook Air and the recently-introduced Dell Adamo. The category of upcoming CULV-based laptops has been described by some observers as the MacBook Air for the masses.

CULV chips will be based on mainstream Intel chip designs, such as Intel's Core architecture, differentiating them from the lower-performance Atom processor, which powers low-cost Netbooks.

Otellini said in prepared remarks during the conference call that Intel "looks forward to the launch of our consumer ultra-low-voltage products, which will enable many new sleek thin-and-light notebooks at very compelling price points."

And later in the conference call, responding to an analyst's question, he said: "The big trend in notebooks this year, starting mid-year, is likely to be very well designed thin-and-light notebooks using the CULV or ultra-low-voltage products."

Otellini continued. "And I think you'll see those at very attractive price points. Up to this point in time, those machines have been sort of executive jewelry and I think they'll hit mainstream consumer price points."

He said that these notebooks will be different from Netbooks. "And we're expecting (there will be) a more clear distinguishing set of characteristics between Netbooks and notebooks," he said.

One issue likely to emerge is, why would anyone buy a $500 Netbook, like the HP Mini-Note 2140, if these more powerful, sleek laptops are available?

The Intel CEO also said that new versions of the Atom processor are coming and mentioned a dual-core version. Intel currently offers a dual-core 330 Atom model for Nettops--a low-cost desktop PC category--so this would presumably be in addition to this sole dual-core Atom offering.

Otellinli also said that the future Larrabee graphics processor shown at the Intel Developers Conference in Beijing last week was a "high-end version" and added that "there's obviously other versions that have far fewer cores for different price points. What you saw is the 'extreme' version, let me put it that way." Volume shipments of Larrabee are expected early next year, he said.

Updated at 12:30 p.m. PDT with additional information throughout and corrections to cache size and thermal envelope ratings.

Intel will refresh its lineup of chips for ultraportable laptops on Monday.

The new dual-core processors--targeted at Apple MacBook Air-class laptops--include the 2.53GHz SP9600 priced at $316 with 6MB of cache memory and a thermal envelope rating of 25 watts. Slotted below this chip is the 1.6GHz SU9600 (3MB cache) priced at $289 with a thermal envelope rating of 10 watts.

The lineup also includes a single-core 1.4GHz SU3500 with a thermal envelope of only 5.5 watts. This is priced at $262.

Intel ULV and LV chips due on March 30, 2009:

• SP9600 / 2.53GHz / 6MB cache / 1066MHz FSB / 2 cores / 25W / $316
  
• SL9600 / 2.13GHz / 6MB cache / 1066MHz FSB / 2 cores / 17W / $316
  
• SU9600 / 1.60GHz / 3MB cache / 800MHz FSB / 2 cores / 10W / $289
  
• SU3500 / 1.4GHz / 3MB cache / 800MHz FSB / 1 core / 5.5W / $262
  
• ICP900 / 2.2GHz / 1MB cache / 800MHz FSB / 1 core / 35W / $70
  

These new chip models being launched Monday are not the rumored "CULV" (consumer ultra low voltage) processors targeted at inexpensive ultra-thin laptops, according to sources close to Intel. Those future chips--which Intel will not necessarily label CULV--are not due to summer, the sources said.

The future ULV processors for inexpensive ultra-thin laptops--similar to the $700 Hewlett-Packard Pavilion dv2 expected to hit the streets next month--will be priced to allow PC makers to roll out attractive, sleek laptops that are not priced in the stratosphere, like the $1,999 Dell Adamo or $1,799 MacBook Air.

Let's step back for a minute and examine Intel's ULV lineup. Intel low-power mobile processors have been around for a long time but gained prominence with the introduction of ultra-thin luxury laptops such as the MacBook Air and the ThinkPad X300. The newest ULV chips, for instance, power Dell's new Adamo ultra-thin laptops and the update to the ThinkPad X300, the X301. (The Adamo uses Intel Core 2 Duo SU9300 and SU9400 processors.)

Intel Netbook, sleek ULV laptop, and mainstream laptop segmentation

(Credit: Intel)

So, what is the new line of ULV chips due this summer for inexpensive ultraportables? These processors will be a departure from Intel's strategy to date of putting ULV chips into sleek luxury laptops only. The new chips will target the price segment well below the $1,800-and-up luxury laptop market. Prices for these ultra-thin laptops would range between $600 and $1,300, according to Intel.

The processors--at least according to Intel's theoretical game plan--will not compete with the Atom processor that powers Netbooks, which fall below the $500 price point.

But this will be tricky and potentially not clear to customers. For instance, is a $700 Atom-powered Hewlett-Packard Mini 1000 Netbook with built-in broadband Verizon wireless and an 80GB hard disk drive better or worse than a not-so-full featured Pavilion dv2? We'll have to wait and see how this shakes out.

Advanced Micro Devices' CEO Dirk Meyer is confident about his company's ability to compete--especially with Intel--and believes a new focus on processors for smaller laptops (and possibly a Netbook chip) will be key.

AMD CEO Dirk Meyer

(Credit: AMD)

During a phone interview Thursday, Meyer also addressed the finalization of its deal to spin off its manufacturing operations. As planned, AMD will become a chip-design company and spin its manufacturing operations off to a new entity tentatively called The Foundry Company. AMD will own 34.2 percent of the new manufacturing company, while the Advanced Technology Investment Co. will own the rest. ATIC is an investment company wholly owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, which is part of the United Arab Emirates.

"We've completed all the prerequisites to closing the deal and we close the transaction no later than Monday (March 2)," he said.

One of the linchpins of the spin-off is the opening of a new manufacturing facility in Saratoga County, New York. "We still plan to break ground on that facility next summer. When we open up the doors it will be one of the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the country," Meyer said.

Meyer explained what the spin-off means to AMD investors. "What AMD stockholders will own is AMD the product company. It will happen that AMD the product company will own an equity interest in The Foundry. However, The Foundry's operations will be funded off The Foundry Company balance sheet. And AMD won't have any obligations going forward to pony up anymore investments to fund The Foundry company operations," Meyer said.

The upshot is that the spin-off will save AMD money, allowing it to be more profitable. "In the past we've been burdened with the need to invest in silicon R&D and wafer fabs (plants). And this transaction gets us out from underneath both of those things. In the past, we've had to invest between one and two billion dollars a year in manufacturing capacity for wafer fabs. We don't have to do that anymore."

"This will bring a bunch of cash into the company and lighten our debt load," he said.

Intel, not surprisingly, sees things differently. It believes having full ownership of manufacturing operations makes it more competitive by allowing it to move quickly to next-generation manufacturing processes: a strategy that Intel has executed almost flawlessly in the past couple of years: moving from 65-nanometer to 45-nanometer and, later this year, to 32-nanometer. (Generally, the smaller the geometries, the faster and more power-efficient the chips are.)

And Intel CEO Paul Otellini mentioned yesterday at a Goldman Sach's technology conference that AMD may face issues when it "decouples" its design operations from the manufacturing side of the business.

Meyer disagrees. "The supposition is just wrong. That presumes we won't have a relationship with our foundry partners." (Foundry, in this case, is a generic term for manufacturing facility.) "Actually, we have that relationship with TSMC today, who builds our graphics parts." (TSMC is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.) "So, the supposition that we won't have the appropriate influence on technology isn't correct. What about Qualcomm, Nvidia, TI (Texas Instruments)...who don't own their own manufacturing assets? The idea of being a successful semiconductor product company and not owning the manufacturing assets isn't new."

So, how will AMD compete with Intel in the race to move to the next-generation manufacturing process? "We've never introduced products on the next node (manufacturing process) first in the industry. One, it's really expensive to do. And it has been a good business decision, frankly. And, given our scale, we don't receive the first copies of manufacturing tools. So, we have, by choice, introduced products six to twelve months after the first company in the business and that typically is Intel. We're not materially disadvantaged by doing so. Our product architectures have always left us very competitive. At the 65-nanometer generation, our products were competitive in the data center with Intel's 45 (nanometer)."

Meyer said AMD will begin its "ramp" to 32-nanometer in the middle of next year.

And what about AMD's ability to respond if the economy gets worse? "We embarked on some restructuring activities in the back half of last year. And when the economy turned south we had to go back and restructure further. We did so with a very sober view of the future. So our plans were not created on the assumption we were going to see a miraculous turnaround in the second half," he said. "Priority one is manage cash and make sure we maintain liquidity. Priority two is maintaining investment in the R&D pipeline. That will make sure we're an interesting company when things do turn around."

An emerging area of critical competitiveness for AMD is mobile processors. Before addressing specifics, Meyer said that consumers should look beyond benchmarks. (AMD mobile processors do not fare well against competing Intel chips in benchmarks). "Let's open the aperture a little bit. Let's think about what people actually do with PCs. And let's think about the experience in various usage scenarios and talk about how well the device responds in delivering that experience. If I'm going to transcode video or play a 3D game. Let's talk about what we actually want to do instead of some benchmark." Here, Meyer is saying that AMD's processors combined with its ATI graphics chips can process certain tasks more quickly than Intel processors alone.

And Netbooks? Does AMD, dare we say, now have a Netbook strategy (after renouncing the Netbook last year)? "I think a year from now people are not going to talk about a Netbook versus a notebook because the lines are going to be so blurred it's not going to make any difference anymore." He said AMD has reevaluated the small laptop space and intends to compete in small devices starting at the 10-inch diagonal screen size. "I hate to say Netbooks because a year from now people won't say Netbooks." And how low will AMD go? "You'll see our chips show up in devices down to the $399 price point."

This very-low-cost chip will be different than AMD's Yukon, aka the Athlon Neo Processor MV-4 (1.6GHz), which will be used in Hewlett-Packard's upcoming dv2 Pavilion ultraportable notebook. Meyer said AMD is working on a chip code-named "Ontario" that's "more purpose built for lower power, lower cost applications."

"So we've got a continuum of solutions going Yukon, Congo, Nile, Ontario...that will enable smaller, less expensive form factors. We're focusing on that ten-inch and above..10, 11.6 (diagonal screen size)--in there."

Though Meyer didn't get very specific, the single-core Yukon and the dual-core Congo (the latter coming later this year) appear to be targeted at larger screen sizes (like the 13-inch HP dv2 Pavilion) while Ontario is smaller form factors.

A clash is brewing as PC and cell phone chip suppliers vie for new designs that fall outside traditional product categories, an analyst said in a research note Wednesday.

Asus 10-inch Eee PC 1000

(Credit: Asus)

Doug Freedman, a chip analyst at AmTech Research, said the "line between cell phones and PCs is clearly blurring" and that consequently "PC and cell phone food chains will battle for market share in these new classes of devices." He calls this the "big bang between PCs and handsets."

This will happen as more tweener products emerge. "New product categories such as Netbooks, MIDs (mobile Internet devices), and smartphones all lie in the spectrum between the traditional PC and handset product categories," he wrote. "Cell phones are increasing in screen sizes, computational power and capabilities, while PCs are seeing declines in screen sizes and increases in connectivity."

This may present problems for chip suppliers as they rush to build inventory for these newfangled devices, resulting in an oversupply for device categories that don't succeed. "It's a safe bet that we'll end up with losers," he said in an interview. Moreover, there will be lower-than-expected gross margins (a crucial indicator of profitability) for some of the chips that go into these products, according to Freedman.

While the Netbook is considered a successful tweener product, it exemplifies a category that may be facing a reality check as the novelty wears off, resulting in an oversupply problem, he said. Intel says it has seen strong demand for the Atom processor on the back of the popularity of Netbooks but there are signs that demand has started to ebb, according to Freedman. This has resulted in cancellations from device makers for chips that go into Netbooks, Freedman said.

Netbooks have been popular because of their novel design--what is essentially a very small, very-low-cost (below $500) laptop, a category that hasn't existed to date. Ultra-small laptops (such as the MacBook Air and Toshiba Portege) have traditionally commanded a very stiff premium, typically going for more than $1,500.

Contrary to what Intel has been saying, Freedman wrote in the research note that the "initial generation Netbook solutions may not succeed in emerging/low income markets as users find feature and performance sacrifice in Netbooks (i.e. 5- to 8-inch screens) unacceptable for a networked family."

He added that Intel will also continue to be challenged by cannibalization of Netbooks: that is, Netbooks will take market share from traditional notebooks.

Down the road, Freedman writes, "we do not expect the PC and handset to converge into a single 'holy grail' device." PC and cell phone makers will continue to build devices that try to bridge the gap. Apple's iPhone is an example of a device at one end of the spectrum, while the 10-inch Asus Eee PC Netbook addresses the other end.

"We expect most users to continue to require two devices: one large form factor device and one small form factor device," he said in the note.