The Apple tablet, if it arrives, is an extension of a design that already has mass appeal--and does not require a leap of faith to believe it will succeed.
Qualcomm concept tablet based on Snapdragon chip
(Credit: Qualcomm)The Apple iPhone and iPod are arguably small tablets--and consumers have demonstrated unmistakably that they love these devices. So, a larger, more versatile version of the iPod makes perfect sense.
And some not-so-small companies like Qualcomm and Intel are pushing tablet-like devices for their next-generation silicon. So this isn't just Apple (if the Apple tablet rumors are indeed true).
That said, let's not limit this potential market to Apple. A company clever enough to design a compelling Google Chrome OS-based tablet, for example, will also succeed, if an Android-based tablet design doesn't arrive first.
Semantics is one obstacle to understanding the potential appeal of a re-conceived tablet. Think of it this way: it's not a tablet in the sense of the kludgy, thick, heavy, uninspired tablets of yore. Or even the ugly, thick, heavy convertible laptops available today.
Think of it as a mobile Internet device. Or whatever you choose to call it. The point is that it's designed around wireless connectivity and real portability. It's very thin, very light, has a larger screen than an iPod, and, most importantly, comes with an inspired user interface.
There will be losers in the market, of course. PC makers who continue to sell bulky warmed-over laptops with a clumsy interface will be greeted with limited consumer acceptance--as in years past. The Apples of the world will succeed.
Here are some possible specifications that are based on what Qualcomm is proposing (since the Apple tablet is still only a rumor):
- Less than 2 pounds
- Under 20mm thick (0.8 inches)
- All-day battery life
- 3G/4G mobile broadband
- Wi-Fi, GPS
- Robust 3D graphics, HD video
- No waiting, instant-on
I would buy it (and that's not a shallow promise made only to buttress my argument), despite the fact I have never seriously considered a tablet in the past. Why? Simple: it's functional. More specifically, it's extremely functional as a secondary device--and its size and weight have a lot to do with this.
And, as opposed to today's Netbooks that are just downsized laptops, you could whip this device (8- to 10-inch screen size) out of your bag and it would be instantly accessible and have a screen big enough to do 90 percent of what you can do on your laptop.
As one reader said responding to a post by CNET's Rafe Needleman: "The Apple tablet isn't a computer, any more than the iPhone is a computer. The tablet is a media player that's also an information appliance. You have to judge these things by different criteria."
Another reader posed an obvious but important question: "Will we be inspired?"
And another comment, which basically crystallizes the points above and states my argument: "I see my iPhone as a mini tablet. Depending on the price, I would definitely consider buying a larger, easier to read/type device."
In short, I don't need a smaller version (i.e., a Netbook) of something I already have. As a secondary device, it should be different than my primary laptop and provide a different kind of utility.
My prediction: 2010 will be the year of the re-conceived tablet.
Intel is endorsing Google's future Chrome operating system, but the chipmaker is being cautious as it already has a successful strategy supplying chips for Windows-based mobile devices.
Last week, makers of processors based on the ARM design, such as Texas Instruments and Qualcomm, were quick to cheer the news of Google's Chrome, which is slated to first appear on Netbooks in 2010.
"We're thrilled about the news that Google just issued," Ramesh Iyer, TI's head of worldwide business development for mobile computing, said last week. "You can see how simple the user interface is and how easy it is to access stuff," he said, referring to current Google applications available on the Web. "Think of (Chrome) as the next-gen of all of that."
Intel was more guarded in its statements. "We welcome Google's move," said Intel spokeswoman Claudine Mangano, but added: "We try to ensure Intel processors run on a variety of software." Chrome is slated to launch simultaneously on both ARM and Intel processors.
Though Intel is officially software agnostic, unofficially its chips are inextricably linked with Microsoft's Windows software as the hardware half of the most popular hardware-software PC platform on earth. And Intel's Atom is already the processor of choice for the most popular Netbooks worldwide from Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Toshiba, Sony, Acer, and others.
Atom will hold more than an 80 percent share of the 23.5 million Netbooks sold in 2009, according to a report released Monday by the Information Network, a New Tripoli, Pa.-based market research company.
Most of those Netbooks run Windows--which Google is looking to displace. "Consumers buying Netbooks so far have voted Windows," said Jeff Orr, senior analyst, mobile content, at ABI Research, in a phone interview.
The ARM chip camp is hoping to link its processors with Google in much the same way Intel is associated with Microsoft's popular Windows software. "Coming from the ARM side, they lack a Windows XP, Windows 7 solution," Orr said.
ARM processors are supplied by chip manufacturers Texas Instruments and Qualcomm, among others, and power devices such as the Palm Pre and T-Mobile Android smartphones, respectively. The Information Network projects that the ARM processor will gain a 55 percent market share of the 96 million Netbooks sold in 2012.
But for the foreseeable future, Netbooks will run Windows on top of Intel's Atom processor. And for those few Netbooks not running Windows, Intel is hedging its bets. The world's largest chipmaker also showed, as part of a technology demonstration, an Atom-based Netbook running Google's Android operating system at Computex.
Where's your comfort zone? Windows, Mac, Linux? An unintellectual, emotional attachment to an operating environment often determines what consumers buy and may determine whether Google Chrome can ultimately compete with Windows.
In the consumer laptop space, specifically Netbooks, there isn't much hope for a Linux-based operating system like Google Chrome in the near term. So, first the bad news.
Market researcher iSuppli released a report Friday that I agree with. It begins with the usual, saying that Google's Linux-based Chrome operating system sets the stage for a battle of the Titans (Google versus Microsoft). But what it said after that affirmed my own convictions (and echoed comments I had heard before from other analysts).
"The small penetration of Linux in Netbooks is not due to any technical shortcomings," said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms research for iSuppli. "Because the vast majority of people who buy Netbooks are consumers, who do not have a high degree of knowledge of the key players in the OS market, they are going with the names that they know. And in PCs, that name is Microsoft."
Asus fold-unfold mobile device concept: a compelling name-brand hardware-software package can change minds
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)The report continues: "For Google to be successful, it needs to promote and position its brand so that non-tech-savvy consumers will be comfortable buying a Netbook running its operating system rather than one from Microsoft. This will be a major challenge."
In other words, it's hard to move people out of their comfort zone, particularly if the alternative is fractured like Linux. But there's a silver lining for Google's OS. The comfort zone is shifting. If consumers spend more time on a social-networking site (Facebook, Twitter) or a Web-based productivity environment (Google search, Gmail, Google docs) that becomes their comfort zone (the so-called "cloud") rather than the Windows, or Apple, desktop.
Of course, that's all just theory unless something else happens. What's that extra something? Give consumers a high-profile, respected brand like Google packaged with a slick Netbook and more than a few more could break their ties with Windows (because it becomes irrelevant). Particularly if the price is right.
It's been done before. A charismatic device like the iPhone proves that. In that case, consumers left the tenuous comfort zone of their interface-challenged cell phones in droves and embraced the iPhone.
But this doesn't happen often. And you need a very big, truly innovative company like Apple or Google to pull it off.
Conversations I had this week with both Texas Instruments and Qualcomm executives offer hope in the long term. TI and Qualcomm are building the chips that Chrome will run on and both have been working with Google. (TI told me that they have the Chrome OS running in some form already on their silicon.) Though Intel also says it is working with Google, I suspect Chrome is more of an ARM processor play than an Intel play.
Whatever happens in the next 12 months or so will be interesting and, at the very least, can only add to growing momentum behind mobile devices using ARM processors and non-Windows operating environments.
Texas Instruments and Qualcomm executives talked Wednesday about the opportunities they see for the just-announced Google Chrome operating system.
Prototype Qualcomm Snapdragon processor-based device
(Credit: Qualcomm)The Chrome operating system is "lightweight," a term that Google uses, meaning the OS runs fine on less hardware. Chrome will initially be targeted at Netbooks--essentially ultra-small laptops--that will be available for consumers in the second half of 2010, according to Google.
Both TI and Qualcomm believe the Google OS will provide more opportunity for new-fangled devices to gain wider acceptance. And both believe this is an opportunity for their respective ARM processors--which power many of the world's cell phones--to gain more ground.
Analysts see the makings of a broad realignment in the computer industry. "What Google is betting on with the Chrome OS (is a) shift in computing and consumer behavior," Charles King, president and principal analyst at Pund-IT, wrote in a research note on Wednesday. "If that scenario truly comes to pass, it could disrupt the efforts of virtually every vendor focused on personal computing."
Texas Instruments, which has been working with Google on the Chrome OS, expects big changes in the design of devices, according to Ramesh Iyer, TI's head of worldwide business development for mobile computing.
"Netbooks are really the tip of the iceberg. We need to fast forward into the future and think of things beyond the Netbook thanks to this initiative from Google," Iyer said in a phone interview. TI's OMAP ARM processor powers a number of cell phones and smartphones including the recently-announced Palm Pre.
"We see the future being cloud computing really. You are walking around with a simple tablet, that is probably no thicker than the thickness of your display. It may have a (physical) keyboard, it may have a soft keyboard. ... Read more
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