Rob Enderle opines: Changing of the guard: Sony waxes while Apple wanes
Wouldn't that be "Re-changing"? And wouldn't that also be a load of crap?
OK, Rob Enderle has been skewered to death (sadly, not literally) by many an Apple blogger, but sometimes it's nice to fall back on a classic. Something tried and true.
Sort of like returning to an old friend.
Just one that you hate vehemently.
Enderle, as is his wont, throws about 150 unrelated items up on the wall in the hopes enough of it will stick to form the pattern of a frowny face. Which is what makes his bio slug so amusing.
Rob Enderle is one of the last Inquiry Analysts. Inquiry Analysts are paid to stay up to date on current events and identify trends and either explain the trends or make suggestions, tactical and strategic, on how to best take advantage of them.
Wow. He sure is boss, isn't he?
In the portable music player market, Apple is weakening...
Rob's definition of "weakening" is "a couple of anecdotes I strung together to create the impression of a problem."
Even after the iPod launched, anyone suggesting Apple would reach the dominance they now have would have been branded an Apple Zealot and discredited. Yet, they would have been right.
Unlike Rob. But did you know he's of the last Inquiry Unicorns? Analysts. Whatever.
The Macalope is starting to wonder if the Inquiry Analysts are such a dying breed because they keep getting their heads stuck in those plastic rings that hold six packs together or keep getting hit by cars trying to cross the freeway or something.
Before anyone gets too excited...
Well, Rob, you do have a reputation for excitement.
...I'm looking at a set of trends which may or may not pan out.
Mmm. If it's anything like the rest of your Apple "analysis", Rob, the Macalope's guessing, um, not.
The Macalope would be inclined to give Rob some props for at least caveating that this balogna sandwich he's about to feed us may have rotten mayonnaise on it, but for Rob it's just an excuse to be lazy. And he does this all the time. He's constantly stating something as if it's conventional wisdom when it is neither conventional nor wisdom.
There are articles on why you shouldn't take the latest iPhone patch, on how to recover a "bricked" iPhone (bricked is not a good thing), on how Apple's PR department was under siege, how the iPhone battle was unwinnable and would destroy Apple?s reputation and most recently a $1 billion lawsuit against the iPhone.
"There are articles". In the realm of measures such as market share, stock price, units sold and cash on hand, "there are articles" doesn't strike the Macalope as a great bellwether.
Rob then offers his opinion that HP's eating Apple's lunch in the cafeteria of marketing.
Rob's been hot on HP for a while now. Why, back in 2004, Rob said it was all but a foregone conclusion that the (now defunct) HP-branded iPod would outsell the Apple-branded iPod.
But with Rob, every day is Groundhog Day.
I don't recall a time in my life when I've been able to argue HP is out marketing Apple.
OK, HP's campaign isn't bad (although the Macalope finds it somewhat disconcerting to get a sales pitch from a headless celebrity) and Apple really has been relying on mostly the same ad for several years now. But, gee, maybe that's because it's worked so darned well to date.
Apple has also made what appear to be major mistakes with a number of key products.
Oh, Rob, honey, don't.
The AppleTV didn't go anyplace...
Well, it's gone someplace, but certainly it's a missed opportunity.
...the iPhone's price was initially outside of the market...
Which explains why no one bought any iPhones.
Huh?
...and AT&T as a launch partner was a really bad choice...
Oh, geez, are you still on about that?
...and they've created some nasty product conflicts and made one ugly design choice in the latest iPod line.
Do. Tell.
The iPod Nano was the best looking product in the line prior to the refresh and now it looks chubby (even the Apple folks use that term to describe it) and competitively unattractive (though, in use it really is rather nice).
Rob wants to hate the nano but having held one he can't.
They've created a bad choice between their flagship iPod Touch and Classic products in that if you want capacity you can't have the cool new interface and if you want the cool new interface you can't get capacity and battery life (even according to Walt Mossberg) isn't very good (which means the Touch?s battery is also likely to fail relatively quickly).
Well, let's just see how many iPods touch (that's the Macalope's preferred plural for the device) sell this holiday season, shall we, Rob?
In their flagship all-in-one product the iMac, Gateway just brought out (you should see it in person) what appears to be a better designed and more advanced offering.
The Gateway machine does look nice, if you liked the 20th Anniversary Mac. Now just hop in your car and head to Gateway Country and... Oh, that's right.
Finally, there was an interesting move by Apple's top attorney who ran for Qualcomm after only a few months and was replaced by Oracle's top attorney who is likely the leading expert on getting CEOs out of really bad difficulties. This last suggests Apple is girding for war on the stock option scandal and that, at the very least, will be a rather substantial distraction.
"Who is likely the leading expert on getting CEOs out of really bad difficulties"? What does that even mean? The fact of the matter is that Donald Rosenberg is an antitrust expert. He left Apple to join a company that is currently dealing with antitrust claims in the U.S. and Europe. Apple quickly hired a new attorney from Steve Jobs' buddy Larry Ellison.
Jobs is not currently under investigation in the options scandal.
It's funny that Rob can be so down on Apple and never once mention all the problems HP's executive team has had in the recent past.
Maybe that's just how Inquiry Unicorns roll.
Ride on, magic unicorn! Ride on.
The Macalope had the chance to rub his furred and musky body up against one of the new iMacs over the weekend as he ventured down from the high mountain plains where he makes his home to engage in some shopping and the inevitable frightening of the children at the local mall.
It just comes with having an unusual noggin.
He was mostly interested in doing what he's heard so many Apple pundits say they've wanted to do: "try out that new keyboard". Ah, the trying of the new keyboard! Indeed, it has been spoken of as if it were some heretofore unknown beast like the Jabberwocky.
Ironically, the Macalope not only knows the Jabberwocky quite well, but he realized after laying hooves on it that he also knows this keyboard quite well.
While everyone knows the keyboard is based on the MacBook's, no one seems to have realized that if they wanted to "try out that new keyboard", all they had to do is sashay over to a MacBook and give it a whirl. It's not based on it, it's exactly the same. Sure, it's in a different form factor, but the touch of the keys is identical and that's really what people mean when they say they want to "try out".
While it might cause some ergonic issues for some, the Macalope quite liked it and easily banged out a few sentences even with his clumsy hooves. He's looking forward to getting one his one self.
This is going to be something of an "inside baseball" post so if you're looking for news or rumors, you're out of luck.
If, instead, you're the kind of reader who likes snippy disagreements between pedantic Mac nerds, well, read on, friend!
MacJournals News has taken to task the Mac bloggers who openly mocked "Sticker Guy" as he has come to be known -- the reporter who asked Steve Jobs why Apple doesn't participate in the "Intel inside" promotion. According to MacJournals, the revenue the promotion would generate for Apple is reason enough for the question to be a good one.
The Macalope is proud to count himself as a "Logotard", as MacJournals humorously called us, even if it is a bit of a malapropism as we are clearly "Lack-of-logo-tards".
Because it was a stupid question. Sure, maybe not the stupidest question he could have asked, but still a whopper. Because while there may be valid reasons why other companies might take Intel's money and run, there is no chance on Odin's green earth that Apple would ever do it. To ask such a question is simply to display one's ignorance of Apple and Steve Jobs. The only stickers that you'll find on Apple products are those clear ones that protect them on their magical journey to your doorstep.
MacJournals lists other possible questions a reporter could have asked Jobs and discounts them because he would not have provided anything other than...
...marketing platitudes about great new products, great Intel chips, how cool Leopard is, and how hard they're working on the future.
How that excuses asking a stupid question is quite beyond the horned one, but it's also just not true. At All Things Digital, for example, Jobs was asked about the stagnancy of .Mac and revealed that a revision would be coming soon.
Is it easy to get information out of him you wouldn't get somewhere else? No. But it's not impossible, and "Sticker Guy" blew an opportunity. It's not the end of the world, it doesn't mean he's stupid, but there are times when people do stupid things that are just funny.
Unless you just woke up (you know who you are), you probably know what Apple announced a little while ago. But let's review.
The big news, of course, is the new iMacs. The rumored aluminum enclosure and the MacBook-style keyboard were right on the money and rumor junkies everywhere are now experiencing that feeling of disappointment you get when you open your presents Christmas Eve instead of Christmas Day.
Still, Apple's set the standard for hardware design. Again.
But what good's cool hardware if you don't have cool software to run on it?
Enter iLife -- which redefines sharing your pictures and streamlines putting together a movie -- and iWork -- now a complete package with a new spreadsheet application and finally able to fully fill the gap left by the late, great AppleWorks.
Suddenly that Office delay looks like more of an opportunity than a threat, doesn't it?
And, oh, yeah, they revved the Mac mini.
The Macalope's antlers are all abuzz about the event Apple's hosting next Tuesday.
While rumors have been rolling about new iPods, it seems the smart money is on new Macs, probably of the iMac variety.
Whatever the case, clear your calendar, take the phone off the hook and stock up on popcorn!
Engadget has the pics or some really, really good fakes.
The horned one's not convinced that he wants his desktop machine to have a laptop keyboard, but he has to admit, it looks pretty sweet.
Well, duh.
But, for what it's worth, Forbes noticed the same bit about lower margin products the Macalope did on the conference call yesterday (tip o' the antlers to Daring Fireball).
Could that mean Apple is about to introduce some new products? If so, the possibilities include anything from a new version of the iPod music player to fresh versions of its hot-selling notebook computers. With Apple reporting surging sales of both its computers and music players, that would mean the company is about to go from one strength to another.
So what is it?! What is it?!
Calm down, Billy. The fact of the matter is that we're probably not talking about a huge shift in margin. Remember that Apple's guidance for the second calendar quarter was off about about 40 percent. They're notoriously "conservative" shall we say, without calling them artists that work in a particular medium most often found in cow pastures.
Still, allow your imagination to run over what you will. Lower margin iPods, lower margin iMacs, or new mini laptops priced to move. Whatever it is, it's likely we'll see it in August if it's going to be out long enough to really affect this quarter's guidance.
But don't cancel your summer vacation. The kids are really looking forward to Disneyland.
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