Governments and utilities are expected to ramp up their investments in the electrical smart grid, spending a total of $200 billion worldwide from 2008 through 2015, says a new Pike Research report released Monday.
The term "smart grid" is shorthand for a number of technologies intended to automate and digitize management of electrical power. By computerizing the 20th century electrical system, utilities and others in the power industry hope to manage and control electrical output more efficiently and reliably. Though smart grid sounds like it's a single system, it's more an array of different tools and technologies, from smart meters to solar power, all designed to reduce costs, waste less energy, and provide better networking and communications between homes and utilities.
(Credit:
Pike Research)
Technologies to automate the grid are expected to win around 84 percent of that $200 billion, says Pike. Smart metering systems to track and analyze the usage of electricity, gas, and water will grab 14 percent, while systems to provide juice to electrical cars will garner the remaining 2 percent.
"Smart meters are currently the highest-profile component of the Smart Grid, but they are really just the tip of the iceberg," said Pike managing director Clint Wheelock in a statement. "Our analysis shows that utilities will find the best return on investment, and therefore will devote the majority of their capital budgets, to grid infrastructure projects including transmission upgrades, substation automation, and distribution automation."
Though the grid has seen some technological advancements, it still suffers from a lack of intelligence and automation that would provide greater efficiency and cost savings, according to Pike. Four key goals will drive higher investments in the grid: improving reliability and security; improving operating efficiencies and costs; balancing power generation supply and demand; and reducing the overall electrical system's impact on climate change.
So far, development of the grid has been hurt not just by technical and financial limitations but also by a lack of vision and common standards, outdated regulations, and misunderstanding and even mistrust on the part of the industry over how the public consumes electricity, says Pike. As as result, government and industry bodies see the investment in the grid as a high priority.
As part of its push toward greener and more efficient technology, the U.S. government recently said it would spend about $3.4 billion of stimulus money on state-run smart-grid projects, with utilities kicking in another $4.7 billion. With such strong investment, Pike believes that industry revenues from the smart grid will likely reach their peak in 2013 and then taper off to become a smaller but still robust market over the foreseeable future.
While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.
The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.
(Credit:
Pike Research)
The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.
Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."
Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.
Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.
"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.
The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.
But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:
- By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
- Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
- The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
- Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
- The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.
The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research.
Individuals and commercial businesses around the world are increasingly drawn to small wind turbines to supplement energy consumption, according to a report released Wednesday by Pike Research.
The niche industry of small wind turbines, which saw $165 million in revenue in 2008 and $203 million in 2009, will grow to $412 million by 2013, according to Pike's "Small Wind Power" report.
It can be attributed to the fact that on a cost-per-watt basis many are finding small wind turbines to be less expensive than solar panels, David Link, senior analyst at Pike Research, said in his report.
This is especially true in the U.S. and the U.K. where government support in the form of incentives, tax credits, and municipal height restrictions for structures being lifted for small wind turbines.
There are still places that see wind turbines as "visual pollution." But Pike's report found legislative reviews and incentives indicating that government support for wind turbines is increasing.
However, there are still hurdles.
Because of wind energy's intermittent nature, wind turbines are usually seen working in conjunction with another energy source such as diesel generation. This, coupled with permitting issues depending on a resident's municipal rules, could provide a holdup to market growth, according Pike.
The report is in keeping with the American Wind Energy Association's assessment of the U.S. small-wind industry market that came out in May. It found a 78 percent increase in sales from 2007 to 2008, but that seemingly impressive percentage figure is largely due to a modest starting place. Despite the jump in growth, the report estimated that only a total of 10,000 small wind turbine units were installed in 2008.
A recent study by Pike Research has found that over 76 percent of consumers see recycling as the key to reducing the world's e-waste.
However, 37 percent of consumers also think that recycling their e-waste should be a free service, according to "Electronics Recycling and E-Waste Issues," a study released Thursday.
That's not to say consumers necessarily believe electronics manufacturers should be the ones picking up the tab. Only 10 percent of those surveyed saw recycling as a "producer responsibility," and only 14 percent thought the cost of free e-waste recycling should be built-in as part of product purchase price.
The independent survey was conducted by the research firm as a Web-based questionnaire on a "demographically balanced" sampling of 1,000 Americans.
The study results are a bit surprising because many companies offer rebates on new items in exchange for recycled goods, implying that there is already an e-waste recycle tax built into the price of products. There are also many company-sponsored recycling programs. If you go by the statistics in their sustainability reports, the biggest producers and sellers of electronics also do recycle a relatively large amount of consumer e-waste.
Some consumers might also be a bit lazy when it comes to recycling their old tech junk. The average consumer had "2.8 pieces of unused, broken, or obsolete electronics equipment in their home or storage area," according to Pike Research.
Thirty-five percent also thought there should be a convenient service wherein e-waste recycling is picked up at their curb, like they have for other trash.
But not to worry, Pike Research released a report in May that concluded that e-waste build-up will plateau by 2015.
Lithium ion batteries used as energy storage for utilities will be a $1 billion industry by 2018, according to a report released Wednesday by Pike Research called "Energy Storage Technology Markets."
Much of the lithium ion battery development has been geared toward perfecting the batteries as power sources for electronics, and in recent years, cars. But the alternative energy industry is going to benefit from that research, too. Once that happens, there will be a surge in the sales of industrial-scale lithium ion batteries for power utilities, according to Pike research.
"Utilities will be the downstream beneficiaries of innovation and investment in lithium ion batteries for the transportation sector," Pike Research analyst David Link said in a statement.
The energy storage industry in general is poised to grow as more private and public organizations embrace wind and solar energy worldwide. Because wind and solar systems provide energy in bursts and their cycles are not usually in sync with local peak energy usage hours, power storage when using wind or solar will become an obvious necessity for utilities, according to Pike Research.
Out of eleven methods of energy storage, Pike Research found that lithium ion batteries for utility use will be the fastest growing segment of the storage industry.
Sodium Sulfur (NAS) batteries and kinetic storage systems like pumped hydro and Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) were seen as the next likely leading utility energy storage solutions.
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