A group of CEOs on Monday came out favor of a regional roll-out of electric vehicles in up to eight cities to demonstrate the viability of the technology and incubate the fledgling industry.
The Electricifcation Coalition held a press conference in Washington, D.C. and released an Electrification Roadmap, which prescribes the business and policy steps required to ramp up electric vehicle adoption.
There are 13 members of the coalition, including the CEOs of Nissan Motor, FedEx, Pacific Gas & Electric, and battery maker A123 Systems. The coalition was spun out of Securing America's Future Energy, a lobbying group focused on reducing U.S. imports of oil.
The Electrification Coalition argues that light-duty electric vehicles are the only technology that can cut oil imports and reduce carbon emissions in the near term. Its report (click for link) focuses on what's required to make electric cars available at large scale.
"I think we have the conditions for the mass market. But it's going to take more time," said Carlos Ghosn, the president and CEO of Nissan. "The investments to be made are huge. To make 50,000 batteries is a $250 million investment."
Of all the major automakers, Nissan is the most bullish on electrification. It is releasing an all-electric family sedan called the Leaf in the U.S. and Japan next year. It projects that 10 percent of new cars sales in 2020 will be electric, which is higher than most analysts' projections.
The shift presents challenges to auto makers that are unsure of consumer acceptance. Utilities and municipalities need to prepare in order to make these vehicles more consumer-friendly but they, too, are unsure what the volume of sales will be.
To take some uncertainly out of the picture, the Electrification Coalition advocates a "foothold strategy." Six to eight cities would create a number of incentives for electric vehicles, such as preferential parking and public charging stations. They would apply for government incentives and then test out the system to help bring electric cars to "critical mass," explained David Crane, the president and CEO of power generator NRG Energy.
In the first phase, the plan calls for getting 50,000 to 100,000 light-duty plug-in vehicles on the road per year in certain areas starting next year and then expand to 25 cities. Its report sets a target of having 25 percent of new vehicle sales be plug-ins by 2020, which is 5 million vehicles. A jump to 90 percent of new vehicle sales being plug-ins by 2030 would represent roughly 17 million units, according to data from consulting company PRTM.
For consumers, batteries should be owned and financed separately from the car itself, Crane said. Because batteries are an expensive component that makes it more expensive than a comparably-sized gasoline car, auto makers, including Nissan, are looking at ways to keep monthly car payments roughly the same by leasing batteries.
Governments around the world have established financial incentives for electric vehicles because it improves national security and addresses environmental problems, Nissan's Ghosn said. He noted that France, the U.S., and Japan each have established a tax credit of about $7,500 to consumers who buy an electric car.
In addition to federal tax credits, the coalition endorses incentives for municipalities dedicated to bringing in electric vehicles. Also required is technology to allow consumers to charge at off-peak times.
Speakers at the coalition launch also underscored the economic reasons for which governments are pushing electrification. Reducing oil imports would mean that billions of dollars of U.S. wealth would stop being exported, said Crane.
Government programs to drive investing in electric vehicle manufacturing also help the U.S. auto industry adapt to emerging technologies.
"We can do this. This is something we have the ingenuity for--we have enough innovation. What we need to do is capture that and use that to our advantage to build factories," said David Vieau, the CEO of A123 Systems.
Click for larger image.
(Credit: Electrification Coalition)
Fisker's first car, the Karma, is set to be released next year. Its Delaware plant is set to make its next luxury car, which will also be a plug-in hybrid.
(Credit: Fisker Automotive)Upstart carmaker Fisker Automotive on Tuesday said it will purchase a plant in Wilmington, Del., to make a plug-in hybrid sedan.
The facility, which used to be a General Motors factory, will begin manufacturing a plug-in hybrid in late 2012, which the company expects will cost almost $40,000 after federal tax credits. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Delaware Gov. Jack Markell are scheduled to speak at an announcement ceremony on Tuesday morning.
Production of Fisker's "family-oriented" car, called Project Nina, will result in 2,000 factory jobs. The company anticipates making 75,000 to 100,000 cars per year by 2014. "Wilmington is perfect for high-quality, low-volume production," CEO Henrik Fisker said in a statement.
The Wilmington assembly plant, closed in July this year, produced a handful of relatively low-volume cars from GM's shed brands, including the Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky.
Fisker's first car, called the Karma, is a high-end luxury car priced at about $88,000. The Karma, which is will be manufactured in Europe, will be available in the middle of next year.
Fisker Automotive received $528.7 million from a Department of Energy loan in September, which will fund the purchase of the factory from GM. The company expects to buy the plant for $18 million and spend another $175 million to retool the factory over the next three years.
The technology used by Fisker, called an extended-range electric vehicle or series hybrid, is similar to that used by General Motors' Chevy Volt. The Karma will go 50 miles on batteries, and then a gasoline engine will run a generator for longer rides, for a total range 300 miles.
DETROIT--For plug-in electric cars, it's no longer a question of if. It's a question of when and how.
After many years of buildup, plug-in vehicles aimed at mainstream buyers are set to come to the market starting next year. But even with the momentum around plug-ins, many questions remain unanswered over how this technology transition will impact the ailing auto industry and how the cars will received by consumers.
"You have the feeling that we're at the beginning of something that could be very special," said David Cole, the chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, which is funded by government and corporate sources, during the opening of the Business of Plugging In conference here on Tuesday. "There are a great many uncertainties, but we have to recognize that the key invention is here with the lithium ion battery."
The sold-out conference, which attracted about 600 people, represented the varied groups needed to deliver these vehicles: automakers and supply chain suppliers, electricity utilities, policy makers, tech entrepreneurs, and investors.
Regardless of the initial volumes of electric-vehicle sales, the stakes in this shift are high. Electric vehicles promise to reduce pollution from transportation, decrease oil imports, and provide economic opportunity for a broad number of businesses.
Compared to biofuels or hydrogen fuel cell technologies, the large automakers and several start-ups have coalesced around electrification, to a greater extent. But there still remains the question of how much money consumers are willing to pay and how easily they can adjust strong habits.
"We've placed big bets in this area...(but) the question is: will consumers want these vehicles?" Bill Ford, the chairman of Ford Motor, said during a Wednesday talk. "The short answer is, it depends on how many trade-offs they need to make...and I think customers aren't prepared to make many trade-offs at all."
Hybrid premium
Plug-in cars come in various forms, but the larger battery means a higher purchase price than today's hybrids or equivalent gasoline models. If consumers are going to accept that up-front cost, automakers need to convince them that owning an electric car is cheaper in the long run. One idea that automakers are seriously considering is leasing batteries, which could make the monthly payments for a new electric car comparable to a gasoline version.
The actual prices for many cars aren't yet known, since companies have not yet decided. Nissan's all-electric Leaf sedan, set for its U.S. debut next month and availability next year, is said to be in the $25,000 to $30,000 range. Industry executives estimate that the electric Chevy Volt, due late next year, will be in the $40,000 range.
Fueling up an electric car is less expensive than running the equivalent gasoline-only vehicle, and auto industry executives say the maintenance is simpler on electric drives (no more oil changes, for example). Jonathan Lauckner, General Motors' vice president of global program management, on Tuesday said the cost per mile of the Volt could be a sixth of a gasoline car's, offering as much as $1,500 a year in savings. Those savings get better, if gas prices go up and if drivers can charge up more than once a day.
And consumers want this information. Surveys show that consumers are drawn to plug-ins for environmental reasons, but fuel savings are actually more important, according to a survey of U.S. drivers done by Ernst & Young. Safety, of course, is another high priority.
"We've always had a disconnect between the purchase price and the usage cost, where consumers way undervalue the usage costs, which will continue to be a problem here," Richard Curtain, of the Institute of Social Research at the University of Michigan, said during a panel on Wednesday. "If it got to less than a $5,000 premium, that would allay many of the concerns of the consumer."
Industry executives say volume production, a goal of the Department of Energy's $2.4 billion grant program launched in August, will help bring down costs in the coming years, much the way hybrid components fell in price. But that up-front premium is tough to totally erase, given that electrification is competing with a deeply entrenched technology: the internal combustion engine.
Battery improvements will help the cost picture as well. Many companies are working on batteries--a new generation of lithium ion batteries and other chemistries--that can pack more energy. More "energy-dense" batteries means that drivers will get a longer driving range from a battery of a given size. Ultracapacitors, another storage method, have also been proposed as way to work with batteries in vehicles.
Technology horse race
The different routes automakers are taking to electrification affects costs. General Motors' Chevy Volt has generated plenty of buzz, but company executives say its design will make at least the first generation of the car pricey. GM hopes to wring thousands of dollars from the Volt power train, notably the battery and power electronics in the second generation of the car.
Fisker Automotive, a start-up that received a $528 million loan from the Department of Energy, is using a similar power train for its planned Karma and Nina high-end luxury cars. Called an extended-range electric vehicle or a series hybrid, these cars will run on battery charge only in the beginning--40 miles in the case of the Volt--and then use an internal combustion engine to operate a generator for the electric motor on longer trips.
A handful of automakers--Ford, Nissan, Think, and Coda Automotive among them--are making all-electric vehicles, also called battery-electric vehicles. Because of the limited range of about 80 miles to 100 miles, these cars are being sold as second cars in the United States or Europe or for city driving.
By contrast, Toyota, which has already sold millions of Priuses, believes that the way to sell large volumes of plug-in cars is to build on the existing hybrid technology, where batteries and the gasoline engine both propel the car.
"We think that blended (mode) is going to be the only way to reach the cost parity that the consumer is going to want," said Justin Ward, the advanced power train program manager at the Toyota Technical Center. "There (are) a lot of high-end cars, but how high do you go before it becomes unattainable for the general consumer?"
Infrastructure
Electric and hybrid cars aren't going to take over the market any time soon, because of cost and because they face competition from more efficient gasoline engines and diesels. Market researcher IHS Global Insight projects that pure-electric and range-extended electric vehicles will account for just more than 1 percent of the total market by 2014, with hybrids and plug-in hybrids being nearly 21 percent.
But even though plug-ins of various types will be a niche in the early years, utilities need to start preparing now. On a local level, utility executives are concerned that just a few plug-in cars, which can pull as much juice as a whole house when charging, will strain local power grids. That's particularly true, if consumers install faster 220-volt charging ports, which will cut charge time to about two or three hours, from six or eight.
The way to avoid stressing the grid is to charge cars at off-peak times, utility executives say. Pacific Gas & Electric, considered one of the most aggressive utilities in embracing new technologies, plans to offer customers a 220-volt charger that has a timer so consumers can take advantage of lower rates at off-peak times. Using a smart-grid technology, a car charger could pick its charge time and rate by communicating through a smart meter.
But what if someone can't charge at home? Like others, utility industry group the Edison Electric Institute advocates new building codes demanding that all new buildings are wired so that charging stations can be added in places such as underground parking garages in apartment buildings or retail areas, according to Anthony Earley, the chairman of the institute and CEO of utility DTE Energy.
A few charging stations will go a long way, according to people who spoke at the conference. "We act like this is a chicken-and-an-egg problem, but it's really not," said Mark Duvall, the director of electric transportation at the Electric Power Research Institute. "They are not enabling technologies, in my opinion, but they can help."
If plug-in electric vehicles are wildly popular with consumers and fleet owners, the industry will then face the challenge of having sufficient capital to scale up. During a discussion on battery technologies, academics said that even now, there isn't a sufficient workforce to do the engineering required for electric vehicles, with the most glaring hole in materials science.
Although higher manufacturing should significantly cut battery prices, there were regular questions about the supply of lithium at the conference. Overall, auto and battery company executives said lithium supply is not a pressing concern. Lithium could be extracted from different sources and can be recycled, said Yet Ming Chiang, the chief scientist of battery upstart A123 Systems and professor of ceramics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The U.S. auto industry has an opportunity to be reinvigorated with electric auto technologies, as its seeks to transition from the "rust belt to the green belt," Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm said Wednesday. China, meanwhile, is investing heavily in electric transportation, which national leaders see as a way to "leapfrog" to the latest technologies, said Yibing Wu, the managing director of Legend Holding, the company that makes Lenovo laptops and is moving into clean energy.
On an environmental level, plug-in hybrid cars have 30 percent lower carbon emissions, even if a car is fueled by coal-fired power plants, Earley said. That's particularly important on a global level, since hundreds of millions of cars are expected to be sold in the coming years in developing countries, said Ann Marie Sastry, a University of Michigan professor and a co-founder of a Khosla Ventures-backed battery company Sakti3.
"The small car is absolutely going to be essential for electrification and to all of us because it doesn't matter where the carbon comes from--whether we generate it or it comes from the emerging economies," Sastry said. "It's imperative (that) the United States play a role in this technology development because of our own interest in climate change."
DETROIT--There's a great deal of interest from consumers in plug-in vehicles but electricity utilities say they need to prepare even before electric cars start to plug in.
Industry association the Edison Electric Institute on Wednesday issued a pledge that its members will take steps to smooth the transition to electrically fueled vehicles. The chairman of the institute and CEO of utility DTE Energy, Anthony Earley, voiced the industry's support for plug-in vehicles here at the Business of Plugging In Conference.
"The industry's challenge will be to effectively manage this transition," Earley said. "We recognize that now is the time. After years of debate, the electric vehicle is ready for prime time."
In a DOE-sponsored program, a number of utilities are testing the mileage improvements and impact on the grid of plug-in electric vehicles.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)The statement underscores the growing interconnectedness between the auto and utility industries that's occurring as a wave of plug-in electric cars approach car dealerships.
Plug-in hybrid or pure-electric cars promise to be cheaper to fuel up--the equivalent of $1 per gallon, Earley said. But there are a number of barriers to widespread adoption, including higher upfront costs and the potential impact on the electricity grid.
Utility executives say that adding just a few plug-in electric vehicles to an area could overload the local distribution circuit, particularly if drivers install faster 220-volt chargers at home. There have also been concerns that fueling millions of vehicles from the grid will require construction of more power plants to meet the added demand.
Utilities and auto executives say there is sufficient demand to charge vehicles in the near term with existing power plants if cars are charged at off-peak times, typically overnight. But there needs to be some products and policy changes to ensure that off-peak charging takes place en masse.
In its pledge, the Edison Electric Institute said that they will seek to install more charging stations in public places. Also, it will encourage development of policies that give consumers cheaper electricity rates at off-peak times.
Utilities are now working in a U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored program to test the impact of plug-in electric vehicles. The Edison Electric Institute also said that utilities will establish customer support and education.
DETROIT--If plug-in electric cars become popular in your neighborhood, you may face an electricity supply crunch when it comes to charging.
There have been a number of studies measuring whether the national power grid can fuel large numbers of electric vehicles. But the biggest concern regarding the impact of plug-ins is at the local level, where adding just a few vehicles could strain a local circuit, said Peter Darbee, the CEO of California utility Pacific Gas & Electric, during a talk at the Business of Plugging conference here Tuesday.
Darbee predicts that demand for plug-in vehicles will be very high, as turned out to be the case with cell phones. Based on early data, it's clear that purchasers of plug-in electric vehicles live near each other. Berkeley, California, for example, represents 18 percent of all customers in PG&E's territory while Fresno is only 2 percent.
PG&E CEO Peter Darbee; John Lauckner, General Motors' vice president of global program management; and George Pataki, former New York governor and counsel at Chadbourne & Parke, on a panel at the Business of Plugging In conference in Detroit.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)But high concentrations of plug-in electric vehicles poses a serious challenge to utilities, Darbee said. Plug-in electric cars could draw electricity equivalent the amount needed to run one home, or up to three homes in certain places, he said.
"You can see if you have three or five electric cars arrive in a neighborhood, you're going to overload the local circuits, and that will lead to blackouts," Darbee said. "So we see it as an opportunity but we also see it as a challenge of significant proportions."
Darbee said that utilities need to work with auto companies and policy makers to ensure that customers have a smooth experience and that the grid is not stressed.The utility--considered one of the most progressive in the U.S.--is also taking a number of steps to avoid potential problems.
PG&E plans to recommend that consumers have a 220-volt charging point at home, which will allow most plug-in electric cars to recharge in two or three hours, rather than six or seven hours for a regular 110-volt outlet. Although it's more convenient for consumers, that higher-voltage charging significantly boosts the draw--as much as 6.6 kilowatts.
Darbee said that PG&E is a strong endorser of plug-in electric vehicle technology because it can significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions and reduce imports of foreign oil. But there is a "nightmare" scenario for utilities. That's when large numbers drivers come home on a hot day when the load is already maxed out and they turn on air conditioners and lights, and plug in their cars.
"If that (charging) were at 220 (volts), the results would be pretty dramatic and pretty negative. You would create a peak on top of the current peak load. The effect would be to bring down the electrical system if you had substantial concentrations in the area," Darbee said.
To avoid that situation, PG&E plans to offer a 220-volt charger along with a timer. The consumer would be able to get off-peak rates--called dynamic pricing--by charging between 11:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m.
Smart-grid technology, whereby homes are equipped with meters that can communicate with the utility, gives more flexibility. In that case, the utility could charge three electric cars in succession or at different rates overnight to ease the draw on a local circuit. Or the utility could offer consumers a menu of charging alternatives.
In about seven or 10 years, utilities are envisioning vehicle-to-grid capability in which a plug-in electric car owner would sell electricity from a battery back to the grid. A driver could program the system so that the stored energy is sold only at a certain price, Darbee said.
The costs of bulking up local electricity circuits should be shared by all people in a service territory, he argued. "Just like when there were hair dryers or electric driers, there was a shared cost," he said.
FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--If you want to find out about the cutting edge in green automotive technology, talk to fleet managers.
Although they may have a reputation for stodginess, operators of corporate and municipal fleets are pushing the limits of alternative fuels in both passenger cars and trucks. These projects are driven both by environmental programs and fuel savings, according to attendees at the AltWheels 2009 Fleet Day conference here on Monday.
In the past year, new products, notably hybrid and all-electric commercial trucks, are coming to market. Also, the confidence level in the various alternative energy technologies is firmer, speakers said.
"This is not toy science anymore. This is real utility," said Mike Payette, the fleet equipment manager for Staples, which hosted the event at its corporate headquarters. "It's working exactly as this technology is supposed to work."
Staples has just received hybrid and all-electric delivery trucks made by Smith Electric Vehicles which it will begin testing. The stop-and-go traffic of delivery trucks is well suited to hybrid and electric technology as the trucks can charge batteries during braking.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)Fleet managers said that the use of hybrid sedans and SUVs has been picking up for salaried employees, such as salespeople or police and fire workers. New York City, for example, has bought more than 3,000 hybrids--Toyota Priuses and Nissan Altimas--since 2001 as part of an effort to reduce the city's greenhouse gas emissions, said Steve Weir, director in the Office of Fleet Administration.
Now, hybrids are being scaled up for bigger jobs. Staples recently received hybrid and all-electric delivery trucks from Smith Electric Vehicles that it will test in different locations. The initial cost is higher--partially offset by government stimulus spending--but Payette estimates that operating the electric and hybrid delivery trucks will cost about half as much as their diesel equivalents.
From a technology point of view, hybrids and battery-electric vehicles are well suited for deliveries, since the stop-and-go nature of the driving allows the trucks to recharge the batteries during braking. Also, the length of trips is well understood, whereas consumers will typically do a mix of driving, including long trips.
But that doesn't mean that electric or hybrid vehicles make sense in every application, said attendees, who are using propane, natural gas, and biodiesel. Fleet managers need to also consider the driving range--Staples' electric delivery truck can go between 100 and 120 miles--as well as the weight of what's being transported.
"The question is not whether it will work, it's whether it will work for me--that's what's different," said Stephen Connors from the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "It's all about the drive cycle."
In many cases, in-car technology and programs to promote environmentally aware driving can deliver significant fuel savings, attendees said. The City of Keene, N.H., delivered monthly reports on fuel usage and mileage to department heads in an effort to encourage fuel efficiency habits, such as cutting idling. But far more effective are mechanical systems that enforce driver behavior, said Steve Russell, the former fleet superintendent.
For example, Staples changed the top speed of its Isuzu delivery trucks to 60 miles per hour and installed a system that automatically shuts trucks off after three minutes of idling. Those adjustments showed fuel savings between 4.3 percent and 5 percent on 75 vehicles, according to Payette.
Other fleets are simply converting to four-cylinder vehicles, at times adding more amenities to motivate employees to convert. Heating and cooling equipment company Carrier was able to meet its emissions-reduction goals by choosing a different size vehicle and reducing the weight of deliveries, said purchasing manager Denise Cross.
Business case
Conference speakers said that many efforts to make their fleets more environmentally friendly were driven by corporate environmental sustainability efforts, which can help improve a company's image. But at the same time, there is scrutiny on the financial implications of using hybrids or biofuels, for example.
"We were in a state of flux last year: 'is this going to work?' This year, we're able to put vehicles in place and say that there are lower emissions overall--so we have proof," said Tom Hartner, the manager of global sourcing at Millipore. "Now we're trying to make sure we can deliver at a lower cost--that's where we're going."
Often, the financial picture includes the cost of vehicles, the cost of fuels--biodiesel or natural gas, for example--and ongoing maintenance and infrastructure costs. Staples is projecting that it will be able to get its hybrid and electric trucks competitive on price compared to diesel after funding for the government-aided project runs out, said Payette. "I don't want to be the greenest company to go out of business," he said.
In many cases, corporations don't get federal tax incentives for hybrid passenger cars. But there is federal stimulus money available for projects to test and ramp up production of components for plug-in electric vehicles. For example, a number of utilities are testing how plug-in electric vehicles can fit into smart-grid projects, where cars are charged at off-peak times and act to stabilize power grid frequency.
MIT's Connors said that one of the underlying questions with green auto technologies is what will happen after the stimulus funding ends--and whether these projects will continue if oil prices drop significantly. But corporations and auto suppliers need to go through the trial programs to test various technologies and help bring down the cost of components, he said.
Staples' Payette said he expects the cost of battery and electric motors for vehicles to drop 40 percent as volumes ramp up. Although there isn't a widespread refueling infrastructure, biofuels and natural gas look promising as well, he said.
If you're wondering how the familiar term "gas mileage" translates to a car that runs partially on electric batteries, you're not alone.
Industry group SAE International plans to recommend that the Environmental Protection Agency use "electricity per mile" in addition to the familiar miles-per-gallon rating for plug-in electric vehicles, according to a member of the SAE committee tasked with the job. The EPA is working on mileage ratings for plug-ins, which are poised to enter the market, and reviewing its rules for displaying fuel economy on car stickers.
Because efficiency for gas-electric hybrids is far more tricky than gasoline-only vehicles, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory recently said that it has developed a method researchers say accurately reflects real-world mileage of plug-in hybrids, which can vary greatly with driver behavior.
To get real-world mileage for a plug-in hybrid, researchers have come up with a formula to convert standard tests for a chassis dynamometer, seen here at Argonne National Laboratory, into mileage ratings.
(Credit: Argonne National Laboratory)Government agencies and automakers have been studying the question of mileage for gas-electric vehicles for years. But the issue rushed to the forefront in August when General Motors said that its forthcoming Chevy Volt will get 230 miles per gallon in the city and "triple-digit" combined city and highway mileage driving based on a draft of the EPA's methodology. The EPA has not verified GM's claims, as the tests have not been completed.
Within six months, an SAE committee plans to recommend to the EPA that plug-ins come with fuel-economy stickers that show both miles per gallon and electricity per mile, said Jeff Gonder, a research engineer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and a member of the committee.
"There are two different fuels that are being used so you need to report what the usage is for those two fuels," said Gonder. "If you combine them into one (number) artificially, you can't derive a final output like annual costs" or annual greenhouse gas emissions from a car.
Having a rating for electricity per mile allows a consumer to figure out how much it costs to run a car per mile by using the local per-kilowatt-hour electricity cost, he added.
In addition to cost per mile, there are a number of other proposals to measure fuel efficiency for electric cars. They include an electric car's range--a big limitation of all-electric vehicles--or miles per gallon equivalent based on the energy in liquid fuels and batteries.
Recalibrating your dynamometer
With multiple alternatives and a lot at stake, it's unlikely that the question over how to represent fuel efficiency on a sticker will be resolved quickly. Sedans such as the Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, and plug-in Toyota Prius are scheduled for release over the next two years.
But labels aren't the only problems that new auto technologies introduce. The automated tests used to measure fuel economy before vehicles are sold need to be adjusted as well, according to NREL researchers.
That's particularly important with plug-in electric hybrids--essentially the same type of vehicle as today's hybrids with bigger batteries--because actual mileage will vary significantly based on driving conditions and how often a car is recharged.
Plug-in hybrids run almost exclusively on battery power for the first 20 or 40 miles, with the battery working with the gasoline engine after that. Driving mainly off the battery will be cheaper in part because electric motors are relatively efficient. So the fuel economy for a 40-mile drive will be substantially better than when a person drives 200 miles in a plug-in hybrid, since the bulk of the driving will be fueled by the gasoline engine, Gonder explained.
To come up with a mileage rating today, cars run a course on a machine called a dynamometer--essentially a treadmill fitted for cars and trucks--and the results are converted into miles per gallon. The current conversions don't work well because plug-ins operate in two modes--the first 20 or so miles when the car runs mainly on batteries and then in the "charge sustaining" mode for longer rides, said Gonder.
To address that issue, NREL researchers devised a formula to convert plug-in hybrid car performance on dynamometers to reflect actual driving performance, he said.
"We're trying to set appropriate expectations for what vehicles will get over a long period of time," said Gonder. "We're trying to predict the average (mileage) based on how often they drive between recharging."
Researchers found that the expected results matched actual mileage of a fleet of Toyota Priuses converted to be plug-ins operated by Idaho National Laboratory. Gonder said the methodology needs to be tested with other cars, but should be able to be adjusted for different types of plug-in vehicles, including the range-extended Chevy Volt.
The data also made clear that the cost of operating a plug-in hybrid will vary significantly based on driving style and frequency of charging.
The annual fuel cost of Idaho National Labs' plug-in Priuses ranged from $987 a year--in the case of an aggressive driver who never recharges from an outlet--to $478 per year with the driver charging about every 30 miles and seeking to maximize fuel economy. The average came to $789 per year with daily charging, from the equivalent of 55 mile per gallon mileage.
Updated on October 6 at 11:30 a.m. PT with corrected credit on photo caption.
The Chevy Volt may be the most exciting car coming from General Motors, but costs remain a barrier to wide-scale adoption, according to Bob Lutz, the company's vice chairman and design guru.
During a Web chat last week, Lutz said gasoline prices will need to go significantly higher in the U.S. before the car can become "generalized." His comments were reported on Thursday by GM-Volt.com, a site not affiliated with GM.
"The Volt technology is very exciting, but costs will have to come down before it can become generalized, and U.S. fuel prices will have to rise to world levels, meaning $5 or $6 per gallon," Lutz said. That was in response to a question about GM's plans to use the Volt power train, called Voltec, with other vehicles.
The first edition of the Volt, due late next year, will deliver a jump in fuel economy, offering over 100 miles per gallon. The car runs 40 miles on a large lithium ion battery and then uses a gasoline engine for longer trips.
GM executives have said before that this first-generation technology will be expensive--unconfirmed reports have put the price at about $40,000 before federal tax credits for plug-in electric vehicles.
The company is already working on bringing the costs down--particularly for the battery components--for the follow-on editions, according to the company.
Several automakers are betting on plug-in electric vehicles, which will start to come to market over the next year. This week's Frankfurt Motor Show showcased several electric and gas-electric concept cars.
Studies have shown that electric cars are less polluting than gasoline cars, particularly if vehicles are charged at off-peak times. They also allow more people to "fuel up" with a domestic source of energy.
But the high costs of battery components and range limitations of all-electric cars mean that plug-in electric vehicles will remain a small slice of the overall market, according to experts.
The Boston Consulting Group earlier this year released an analysis that predicted electric vehicles are likely to have 3 percent market share in 2020, compared to a projected 20 percent share for hybrid-electric vehicles.
An executive from Toyota, which has sold more than 2 million hybrid Priuses, said this week that it will take until 2020 before electric vehicles will be suitable for the "mass market."
Automakers this week are showing off all manner of fuel-efficient concept cars at the Frankfurt auto show in Germany. But, in general, the majority of people are reluctant to pay a big premium for the last green auto technology.
Think tank the Rocky Mountain Institute has launched an online calculator to figure what higher up-front cost brings you in terms of savings and environmental benefits. It's part of the group's Project Get Ready to prepare communities for plug-in electric vehicles.
The price premium of greener cars is an important issue as the auto industry readies many plug-ins designed for everyday use. These first-generation cars, such as the all-electric Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt, will have a bigger price tag because they will carry a bigger--and pricier--battery than today's hybrids. But owning an electric car "fueled" by electricity is typically going to be cheaper per mile than gasoline.
The calculator is structured so that you can compare the lifetime costs of two cars, giving you the ability to input a number of variables, such as cost of gas, lease versus buy, and how many miles you drive. It lets you take your best guess at gas prices--today it's at $2.61 per gallon--and assumes electricity costs of 9 cents per kilowatt-hour, though these days that price is more like 11 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Six years is the default number of years to own a car because it's a national average.
... Read moreMILFORD, Mich.--It was brief, but my ride in a Chevy Volt was decidedly fun, even exciting.
On Tuesday, I visited the sprawling Milford Proving Grounds in southeastern Michigan, where General Motors vehicles have been put through the paces since the 1920s.
I was one of the lucky few who got the last ride of the day in a pre-production version of the Volt, which was "almost stolen" from the car's development team by Frank Weber, the global vehicle line executive for the Volt, to give journalists a taste of the upcoming plug-in electric sedan.
In addition to being a key figure in the Volt's development, Weber clearly has got a car engineer's love of driving. His high-speed tour around the track gave me a feel for the "driving experience" GM executives tout with the Volt, which is due late next year.
I was prepared for the zippy acceleration. Models will vary of course, but electric vehicles can boast great acceleration--the Tesla Roadster is faster off the line than many sports cars, for instance--and they deliver their full torque at all speeds.
What surprised me though was the handling. As Weber dipped around the couple turns we took, the car seemed to really stick to the road, and I didn't slide off my seat at all.
It makes sense that it felt like the car "hugged" the road. The large, 400-pound battery pack, which is positioned under the back seats, gives the Volt a low center of gravity, and the car has a good weight distribution, GM executives said.
During the drive, Weber--obviously enamored with its performance--said that you feel much closer to the electric car when you drive because of the responsive acceleration. "It's more like flying than driving a vehicle," he said. And, of course, the ride was very quiet as the car was running on batteries.
I've never taken a Lamborghini or Ferrari around a test track, but I can say the Volt's acceleration and handling are noticeably sportier than sedans like the Prius or the alternative fuel SUVs I also drove at Milford.
Watching the video, you can get a feel for how Weber showed off the Volt's acceleration and, on the last turn, the handling.
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Earlier in the day, I took a tour of GM's pre-production facility at its Tech Center in Warren, Mich., where I gained a bit more insight into the interplay between the Volt's two power sources--its batteries and the internal combustion engine.
