CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--Scientists need the same sort of computer breakthrough that the spreadsheet brought to business users decades ago, says Craig Mundie, Microsoft's chief research and strategy officer.
Mundie gave a speech at Harvard University here on Tuesday to discuss coming "disruptions" in computing and to argue that computer science is fundamental to solving daunting global problems, including energy, environment, health care, and education.
Without taking advantage of advances in computing, adjacent fields of nanotechnology and biotechnology will not move as fast as they could, he said. At the same time, he lamented how computer science is seen as "so yesterday."
"It's stunning how much people want to fund the fads and they don't put any emphasis on how core computing is," Mundie said during questions. "I hope we can come together and realize that we have to invest in the future of computing if we want a future in all these other areas."
Craig Mundie, Microsoft's chief research and strategy officer urges students to think about coming disruptions in computing.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)The Harvard talk was one of four Mundie is giving this week in an effort to stir excitement in the study of computing, with both computer science students and people in other fields, such as medicine or material science. Less than 100 students and faculty came to the Harvard talk on Tuesday where he demonstrated some of how Microsoft's research can be applied to energy and the environment.
Computing is becoming increasingly embedded in everyday devices, in everything from phones to cars. But even though people are increasingly familiar with digital technologies, there are still disruptive changes on the near horizon, Mundie said.
"We think we understand it but in fact it's at a time that the flux in computing overall is as great as it's ever been," he said.
The amount of computation that's available will continue to increase with multicore processors, which will enable new applications. That includes what Microsoft calls "natural language processing," where people can interact with computers in more intuitive ways than the familiar mouse and graphical user interface. An example is Microsoft's Project Natal, motion-sensing technology where people can use arms and legs to play games.
Two other big technology changes, he said, are three-dimensional displays and cloud computing, where people can tap banks of servers over the Internet for data-intensive jobs.
High-end demos
Mundie showed Microsoft Computational Science Studio, a tool designed by Microsoft Research in the U.K. to allow scientists to run complex and data-intensive computer simulations.
Science Studio could be used to project the impact of rain forest deforestation in South America on other regions of the world. The tool is designed to help experts from different disciplines create a model around different sources of data and visualize simulations.
In this example, the application tapped data centers off-site to run simulations of how changes to the rate of deforestation would affect average temperatures in the U.S.
Generating these models is very practical not just to scientists but to policy makers as well, Mundie said. "Is it better to pay the Brazilians not to cut down trees or to develop genetically engineered crops that can grow in temperatures that are five degrees hotter?" he said. "Those are the kind of choices that our society is going to have to deal with."
In another demo, Mundie showed how a researcher can optimize output from a wind farm. Using an 8-processor computer with a three-dimensional display and pen-based input, Mundie was able to view how different wind turbine blade shapes affect wind flow.
Several energy technology companies are already using IT aggressively. The idea of the smart grid is essentially overlaying digital communications and controls onto the electricity grid. Start-up eSolar uses embedded processors on thousands of mirrors to track the sun and generate the most heat possible with its solar concentrator.
Cloud computing opens up more possibilities for far-reaching energy research, Mundie said. One example is TerraPower, a Seattle-area nuclear power company that has attracted Bill Gates and former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myhrvold as investors.
TerraPower is designing a "traveling-wave nuclear reactor" that could use the spent fuel from traditional nuclear reactors and make electricity from it for decades. To speed its research, the company is using high-end computation, which only now is accessible to start-up companies because of cloud computing, Mundie said.
"These are the types of technologies where scientists, engineers, and computer scientists have to come forward, explore them and, if we can make them work, then of course they represent a real discontinuity in the quest for high-scale, zero carbon energy sources," he said.
Microsoft's move into the energy monitoring business may sound like a stretch, but to Craig Mundie, it's one of several natural new businesses for the software maker.
Mundie, Microsoft's chief research and strategy officer, said the company has its eye on any area that can be helped by technology and in which society is spending a lot of money and not seeing the return it would like.
Microsoft's Hohm service lets users enter information about their home and energy use to get tips on cutting their gas and electric bills.
(Credit: Microsoft)Energy consumption specifically, and environmental issues more broadly, were natural areas for the company to delve into, he said, and follow Microsoft's moves into other thorny challenges such as education and health care. On Wednesday, Microsoft is officially announcing Hohm, a free service that households can use to monitor their household energy use and get tips on how they can cut their gas and electric bills.
Mundie said Microsoft started with the residential market because it accounts for $160 billion of the $365 billion that the U.S. spends on electricity use.
"The big industrial guys have already entered into special contracts," Mundie said, noting that businesses often have done energy audits and agreed to cut their use in exchange for lower rates. "To some extent, they don't need it so much."
Hohm, which was code-named Niagara, is the culmination of about two years of work in the area, Mundie said. It's also one of the first commercial services to launch running on Windows Azure, the cloud-based operating system that Microsoft introduced last year.
One of the big questions though, is whether the issue is that people don't know what is using energy in their home, or if they just don't care.
"I don't think anybody can tell," Mundie said. "So you give it a try."
But Gartner analyst Martin Reynolds notes that we have seen signs that apathy rather than ignorance may be the biggest hurdle when it comes to cutting energy consumption. Reynolds noted that even when gas prices tripled, most Americans opted to pay more rather than to dramatically change their energy use.
That same attitude will be a challenge in the home, Reynolds said, noting that he gets a chilly reception when he suggests a family member put on a sweater rather than turn on the heat.
For its part, Microsoft is betting there are enough people who are focused either on their energy consumption or their bills to make the investment pay off.
While the business model isn't totally clear, Mundie said there is potentially money to be made both from advertising as well as from connecting consumers to products and services that might cut their energy use.
There are other reasons Microsoft may be interested in energy, including the fact that its chief nemesis, Google, has also made a move in the arena.
The big difference in approach, Microsoft said, is that unlike services from other big companies and start-ups, Hohm works without needing any sort of special smart plugs or other gear, though it can work with such products as well.
"We didn't want to start with something predicated on some major infrastructural change," Mundie said. Microsoft is partnering with utilities so that consumers can get their energy use data directly imported into Hohm, but for those whose provider isn't one of the early partners, Mundie said consumers can enter information from their bill.
Hohm works by asking people a series of questions about their home and energy use. Consumers can enter as little as their zip code. But the more information a consumer gives, the more detailed the recommendations.
"You can answer one question or a hundred questions," Mundie said.
To hear more from Mundie, check out our video interview above.
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