Google now tracking flu trends via search
Google on Tuesday unveiled a new site to track the progress of the common cold.
Using the same keyword tracking technology found on Google Trends, it keeps an eye on people searching for queries involving the word "flu" and tracks them both by date and location.
What makes the technology so fascinating is that its data set goes back to 2003, and has been cross-referenced with the last several years of survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Google says that because its own system is based on a constant flow of searches as opposed to surveying techniques it's able to provide results one to two weeks faster than the CDC.
The same trending technique could be used in tandem with other organizations to track contagious viruses or threats besides the common cold, including AIDS, bird flu, and Africanized honey bees.
One limitation of the current system is that it does not track worldwide flu traffic. There is, however, quite a bit to discover from data from years prior--especially when you get several years that stack up on top of each other with similar rises and falls during certain parts of the year. According to Google's chart, we're about three weeks from hitting the heavy season, which goes until early January.
Google Flu Trends tracks flu activity across the United States.
(Credit: CNET Networks)
Josh Lowensohn writes for Webware.com, CNET's blog about Web applications and services. E-mail Josh, or follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/Josh. 
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/dailymeme/2005/Aug/coughcoldDejanews.png
Web searches are co-incidental indicators.
Want to see something that Google hasn't shown you?
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=sars_versus_avian_flu_meme
It's quite likely that the Internet retains knowledge and alters its behavior over time. Compare the group reaction time between the SARS and avian flu viruses.
it'll be hilarious
There was actually a task force sponsored by Consumers Union and HHS/Disease Prevention several years ago that studied this, found Google searching was too uncontrolled and random to actually predict an outbreak (see: http://www.urac.org/savedfiles/URAC_CWW_Health_Search_White_Paper1203.pdf).
I once tested a theory about telephone monitoring (back in the mid-90s, not long after the Waco incident) by staging a conversation about acquiring seeds for planting marijuana. Sure enough, that summer I saw a good deal of black helicopter activity over my property. Not only validated my paranoia, but explained what those helicopters were really about back then.
That was a kooky thing to do, but disturbing that it got results.
- by eysenbach May 1, 2009 7:48 AM PDT
- Please stop positioning Google Flutrends as a "Google invention" and regurgitating Google press releases.
- Like this Reply to this comment
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(11 Comments)The idea to look at search data as early warning systems for flu outbreaks is not a Google invention, but was actually already proposed over 3 years ago (published 2006), by researchers from the Centre for Global eHealth Innovation and University of Toronto.
Eysenbach G. Infodemiology: tracking flu-related searches on the web for syndromic surveillance. AMIA Annu Symp Proc 2006:244-248
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pubmed&pubmedid=17238340
Eysenbach G. Infodemiology and Infoveillance: Framework for an Emerging Set of Public Health Informatics Methods to Analyze Search, Communication and Publication Behavior on the Internet
J Med Internet Res 2009;11(1):e11
URL: http://www.jmir.org/2009/1/e11
The Virus Chasers
http://www.cihr-irsc.gc.ca/e/35061.html
CIHR Newsarticle (2007) about the infodemiology / infoveillance work at the Centre for Global eHealth Innovation in Toronto