U.S. video game industry sales plunged in October, dropping 19 percent from a year earlier, and 16.4 percent from September, according to data released Thursday by the NPD Group.
But with the tremendous, record-breaking, out-of-the-gate performance of Activision's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and the coming holiday season, NPD is bullish on the industry's fortunes for November.
Still, the $1.07 billion in total sales turned in by the industry in October were paltry, compared with $1.32 billion in October 2008 and $1.28 billion in September 2009. NPD analyst Anita Frazier tried to soften the blow a little bit in her monthly report, noting that while sales were down precipitously in October, it was still the third-best October sales report turned in by the video game industry.
"The continued economic turmoil, and in particular the troubling unemployment rate, is undoubtedly impacting industry sales," Frazier wrote in a statement. "Our latest Economy Tracker indicated that although consumers' general opinion about the economy is improving, their outlook on their own personal situation is worsening. If consumers' personal outlook continues to erode, they could very well be much more conservative with their holiday shopping this year."
That last sentence is no doubt one of the most chilling group of words imaginable to the honchos at companies like Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, Electronic Arts, Activision, and many others involved in putting video game hardware and software in consumers' hands, especially as their most important sales months of the year are now at hand.
As always, regardless of the monthly results, the big console makers each had some things to celebrate in the NPD numbers.
For Nintendo, which has seen sales of its once-high-flying Wii dip and perceptions that the console's days of seeming infallible may be over, the numbers had some hope: in October, the Wii took back first place among the consoles--respectively the Wii, Microsoft's Xbox 360, and Sony's PlayStation 3. In October, Nintendo moved 506,900 Wiis, beating out the PS3 (320,600) and the Xbox (249,700).
Sony was coming off the first month the PS3 won since being launched in the fall of 2006, but while the console was beaten out by the Wii, there must certainly be some measure of gratification in having the PS3 come out ahead of Microsoft's console offering.
"In October, we saw continued momentum [for the] PS3, with nearly 70 percent growth, when compared to last October," Peter Dille, Sony Computer Entertainment of America's senior vice president of marketing, said in a statement. It was "the only console to see any growth year over year."
NPD itself touted Microsoft's chief bragging point for October: "Across all categories, the Xbox 360 platform contributed the greatest portion of total industry sales, representing 27 percent of total industry sales for the month," Frazier wrote.
Yet despite the record-smashing first-day sales posted this week by Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, the video game industry as a whole is facing a very painful reality: If sales don't improve quickly, there will be layoffs, slashed budgets, canceled games, and more.
Electronic Arts, for example, announced this week that it is planning to lay off 1,500 people as part of a major restructuring--the company's latest--and as a way to stave off growing losses.
And while the industry may have hoped that console sales--especially with prices for next-generation hardware now at their lowest levels ever--would help it rebound, Frazier did not offer much hope.
"Year to date, the hardware category has experienced the sharpest decline in the industry, with unit sales down 10 percent compared to the same time period last year," Frazier wrote. "Recent price cuts helped spur a one- to two-month increase in unit sales, and this month's Wii sales reflect that boost, but the other platforms have not sustained the sales momentum [after] price reduction."
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is said to have broken the single-day sales record for an entertainment property. According to Activision, the game earned $310 million in North America and England alone in its first 24 hours.
(Credit: Activision)So much for the supposedly unbreakable first-day sales record set last year by Grand Theft Auto IV.
On Thursday, Activision said that its brand-new Call of Duty 2: Modern Warfare, which hit store shelves on Tuesday, had "shattered" the previous record for opening-day sales by an entertainment property, earning $310 million in North America and the U.K. alone. That equates to 4.7 million copies of the new game sold in those regions, and, if true, would eclipse the previous first-day sales record of $310 million globally, which GTA IV set in May of 2008.
Given that GTA IV had nearly doubled the previous record of $170 million, set by Halo 3, I wondered at the time whether its new mark was unassailable. Clearly, the new Call of Duty has answered that question, and loudly.
Now, we have to ask once again whether there could be another challenger for the crown. It would be foolish, it seems, to conclude that there won't be, given the dominance of franchises like Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Grand Theft Auto itself, and, of course, Call of Duty.
A bigger question could be: Why do we care? That's especially true given how frequently these mega-records are broken. Still, it's hard not to get worked up about what it means for a single video game title to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars in a single 24-hour period, particularly while we're still mired in a fairly deep recession.
There are all kinds of arguments to be made about why video games do well in tough economic times, and I've trotted a number of them out in this space. But most games don't come anywhere near selling $310 million worth of product in their entire lifetime, let alone on their first day, so Activision--and its Infinity Ward studio, which actually developed the new Call of Duty--seem entitled to a little bit of attention.
But at the rate these records are falling, I'm going to have to start thinking twice every time a new game sends me one of these announcements about breaking records. Sooner or later, it's not going to be all that noteworthy, no matter how much money is earned in a single day. Until then, though, watch this space for word on which game will be next in line for the throne.
There are literally hundreds of banned Xboxes for sale on Craigslist right now in the wake of a decision by Microsoft to kick as many as a million players off of Xbox Live for illegally modifying their consoles to play pirated games.
(Credit: Daniel Terdiman/CNET)Update (5:45 pm): This story now includes a statement from Microsoft.
Want an Xbox 360 but don't care about playing online or taking part in any of the Xbox Live services? Then this is your lucky day.
Thanks to a recent decision by Microsoft to ban as many as a million players from Xbox Live for illegally modifying their consoles to run pirated games, there is now an absolute glut of "modded" Xboxes for sale on Craigslist.
And while a brand-new Xbox Arcade--the lowest-price version of the console--sells for $200 with no free games, it is now possible to spend as little as $100 for a used, modded Xbox that comes with a slew of hit titles. You just have to be willing to give up using Xbox Live and be OK with your new game collection including mainly pirated titles.
Running a search for "modded Xbox" on Craigslist's Bay Area site returned 35 listings from the past three days. A similar search on New York Craigslist resulted in 87 listings. And dozens and dozens more are for sale on other local Craigslist sites.
One listing promised a "banned/modded" Xbox 360 with a 20 gigabyte hard drive; 20 HD movies; and 13 games including Madden 2010, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, NBA 2K10, and others.
"Everything works perfectly," the ad reads. "The 360 was treated better than I treat most people."
The ad also reminded potential buyers that, "since the console is banned, you will not be able to connect to the Xbox Live service. Therefore, this posting is for those of you who don't care if you can play online or not."
One Craigslist poster named Danny Cuccovia, a 22-year-old student from West Valley College in Saratoga, Calif., was actually looking to buy a modded Xbox 360, and despite the incredible deals available right now, wasn't interested in one that couldn't get him onto Xbox Live.
A gamer looking to potentially go pro, Cuccovia suggested that modded Xboxes are great because there is no end to the supply of pirated games and that sellers of those games put very realistic-looking labels on them.
He also said he was sure that many of the people selling their banned Xboxes on Craigslist were doing so because they want to get a new one.
That was certainly the case with Kevin, a 29-year-old from Manhattan's East Village who logged into Xbox Live a few days ago only to discover the bad news about his console.
"I logged in, tried to play a game online, and it said I had been banned from the service for violating the terms of service," Kevin, who wouldn't give his last name, said. "I cursed, put my controller down, cursed Microsoft, and then bought another Xbox."
But even though he bought another used console that was advertised as being unmodified, Kevin said that when he tried to log on to Xbox Live, he quickly discovered he'd been cheated: the new device had been banned, too. So on Tuesday, he bought another one.
"If you're interested in a modded Xbox," he said, "I've got one for you."
Interestingly, Kevin and another New Yorker with a banned Xbox, 16-year-old Muhummad Sheikh, both said that the ban seemed to apply only to the console and not to their Xbox Live accounts.
Kevin said that his account still works, and that he was able to keep all his achievements, but he lost all the saved games. "They've done something funny," he said. "They call it a corrupted profile."
For sellers like Kevin, the rush to sell their banned Xboxes in order to buy a new one is pitting them against dozens, if not hundreds of people in the same boat. That means that getting the price they want is going to be near impossible. Kevin said that he had originally asked for $175--with an available legitimate copy of Rock Band for an additional $50--but has now dropped his price to $150. And still he has no bites.
"Someone (offered to) buy it for $100," Kevin said, "but I haven't capitulated yet."
In a statement issued late Wednesday to CNET News, Microsoft suggested that players who buy used Xboxes should beware that the company doesn't necessarily stand behind the consoles.
"If you purchase a modified console second-hand, the warranty is not transferable and the purchaser assumes the risk for any previous modifications," the Microsoft statement said. "If you purchase a console that has been previously banned, you will not be able to connect to (Xbox) Live."
To Kevin, the fact that the consoles have been banned but players' accounts still work smells a little fishy since that means if someone buys a new Xbox, they'll be able to get right back into their Xbox Live account and pick up, more or less, where they left off. And that could well mean that for the Xbox Live obsessed, there's no choice but to buy a brand-new machine, especially since many of the other consoles for sale on Craigslist right now have also been banned.
"Well, the holidays are around the corner," Kevin said. "They know what they're doing when it comes to making money."
In a world in which Disney defines its brand and the content it releases under its own name as being aimed at the broadest possible audience, Mickey Mouse is known largely as a feel-good, happy-go-lucky cartoon character.
But that's not how Mickey was in the early days. Back in 1928, when he first hit the world stage, he was a very badly behaved mouse. And now, one of the best-known video game designers in the world wants to bring back a little of bit of Mickey's dark side.
And he'll get his chance to make that a reality. Warren Spector, the game designer behind the Deus Ex franchise, is working on a new game, Disney's Epic Mickey, which is being positioned, in part, as a "re-imagining" of Mickey Mouse.
Planned for a fall 2010 release, Disney's Epic Mickey will be an adventure-platforming game exclusively for Nintendo's Wii. The story is built around a world--crafted by the sorcerer from The Sorcerer's Apprentice--in which a series of forgotten Disney creations live, and thrive. Among those characters is Oswald, Walt Disney's earliest cartoon star. As the years pass and Oswald becomes bitter at Mickey's success, Mickey inadvertently destroys Oswald's comfort zone in the cartoon wasteland and he must face the consequences of what he has accidentally wrought.
"It's a game where we remind (people) that Mickey is a hero who solves problems by dynamically changing the world around him and deciding how to interact with the people and places and problems he encounters in this strange new world," Spector said.
In 2005, Spector formed a start-up, Junction Point, which Disney bought when it commissioned him to work on the Mickey Mouse game. "I've wanted to work for Disney forever," he said, "so that was not a stumbling point for me at all."
And because Spector is a lifelong Disney fan and animation "freak," everything came together in 2007 for him and his Junction Point team to take on perhaps the best-known cartoon character of all time. On Tuesday, Spector talked with CNET News about the project.
Q: How did you get involved?
Warren Spector: I was out pitching a near-future science-fiction game and an enormous epic fantasy role playing game, and my agent suggested we talk to Disney. They turned things around and asked me if I wanted to a Mickey Mouse game, and I told them no, because I don't do kids games and Mickey's been kind of a kid property for a long time. But they said, No, no, we want someone to bring Mickey to a gaming audience in a whole new way and make him a hero for the 21st century. Pretty much at that point, I was in.
What was it like to get a chance to re-imagine Mickey Mouse?
Spector: How often do you get a chance to work with the most recognizable movie star character property on Earth? That's an opportunity most people never get. There was pretty much no way I could say no. Mickey touches everybody, and none of us will ever meet a human being who doesn't know about this character.
What's the best-case outcome for this game, in your fantasy?
Spector: The best case is to change the way people think about Mickey Mouse. He's not just your 8-year-old kid's best buddy, or a character who teaches infants colors on Mickey's Clubhouse. He's a hero again. In his early days, he appealed to every body. From 1928 to the mid-1930s, moviegoers around the world, everybody, men, women, old, young, you name it. Everybody loved Mickey. And the opportunity to bring him back to that place, where he's not just an icon on a watch or a T-shirt, but is actually a character that people care about in a narrative context, or want to be, to look up to as a character whose skin they want to inhabit for awhile, Boy, I can't think of a better (challenge) for someone who tells stories and makes games for a living.
The logo for Disney's Epic Mickey.
(Credit: Disney Interactive Studios)
Why does Mickey need re-imagining? And why now?
Spector: There's these characters, like Mario and Link (from the Zelda games) and Sonic, and I don't know if it's true, but you've got to believe that those characters--who are three heads tall and cute and iconic--at some level were inspired by Mickey Mouse. So why shouldn't Mickey be at the top of the gaming heap? Mickey deserves to be at the top of the game hero pyramid.
What are some of the things you're doing to make this new Mickey recognizable for everyone?
Spector: I came into this with a pretty good idea of who Mickey was. I wanted to remind Mickey that it's okay to be mischievous and badly-behaved. For so many years, he hasn't been allowed to do anything remotely mischievous. But if you go back to those early cartoons, he was very badly behaved, and we've got to let him get back to that. And in his early cartoons, he was very cartoon-y, he squashed, he stretched. He could remove his tail and use it as a sword. That was the second thing. And the third leap was mischievous cartoon character made of paint. So we talked about what we could do if we gave Mickey control over the stuff that he's made of and let him paint and then use paint thinner to remove stuff.
Were there other things that were essential for bringing Mickey to this medium?
Spector: One major challenge was finding a look for him, especially a 3D look. With a couple of rare exceptions, Mickey's always been in 2D and the animators cheated all the time, with the way his ears work and the way his nose fits relative to the rest of his face. In 3D you can't do that, so I looked at the few previous 3D Mickeys and I didn't feel anybody had gotten it right. We went through probably thousands of concepts trying to find the right look.There are a lot of people at Disney who care a lot about Mickey Mouse, and so getting a look that people could get behind was tough. Rendering it in 3D was tough and then getting it to move like a cartoon character was a huge challenge and tons of fun, and you'll tell me if we succeeded.
Warren Spector, lead designer on Epic Mickey.
(Credit: Disney Interactive Studios)
How much control did you have and how much control Disney assert?
Spector: I was really worried about that when I first started on this. There are lines you don't cross with Mickey Mouse, OK? But the thing that surprised me was how far out those lines were and how obvious it is where the lines really are.
There are people who say, 'Oh, give Mickey a big knife and put a gun in his hand, and then I'll like him.' Well, come on, nobody's going to do that. And you're not going to make Mickey evil, you know? And when you have an icon, where any combination of three circles defines Mickey Mouse for most people on the planet, you're not going to make his head square. I'd say it was a pretty easily negotiated deal, creatively.
Talk more about where the story idea came from?
Spector: During a meeting with the Disney guys, they showed us a PowerPoint with the concept of cartoon wasteland, a world of rejected and forgotten Disney creativity. And the foundation was making Mickey relevant to a gaming audience and a modern audience. It was funny because I watched this presentation thinking, Holy Cow, this is phenomenal and the seed of an amazing thing. And then all the execs were saying, Oh, you don't have to use any of that, this is just our think tank's concept. And I'm sitting there, going, Are you guys crazy. That's a great idea. Why would I not use all of that? I just thought it was so funny because they were trying so hard to make it clear that I had all this creative freedom, and I was like, No, I don't want it, I want this as my starting point.
Can you tell me something about working with these famous Disney characters that would surprise us?
Spector: I think the thing that surprised me the most is how easy it is to get these characters almost right. It's like, drawing Mickey or any other character in the Disney archives, they are so well known and defined and recognized and have such strong personalities that getting them 90 percent right is very easy. But that last 10 percent that just nails them, that's really, really hard. And that goes for how they look, and how they act and how they move, which is one of the reasons why I was so proud of my animators. I didn't tell them to do this. They came up with this idea on their own, of going back to the old cartoons, and rotoscoping them. They took the old cartoons and took our model and rig and then duplicated classic 2D animation, and composited our guy into classic Disney 2D cartoons. When you couldn't tell if it was our model or the original 2D animation, that was when I knew we had it.
Why only the Wii?
Spector: At the beginning, it was supposed to be on all platforms. I remember vividly how nervous I was about that. The idea was we were going to do a Wii port and I was never comfortable with that because the Wii really deserves its own design, something that takes advantage of what the Wii does best. We were talking about this one day and (Disney Interactive Studios executive vice president) Graham Hopper basically said, What does it take to ensure quality? I said, you can never guarantee greatness, but you need enough time and money to be competitive and it helps if you can focus. A single platform would be great. And it was an easy step from there to, Hey, we should do a Wii exclusive.
What about the Wii "stalling?" Does that worry you at all?
Spector: Yes and no. I've been doing this for 20 years, and I've had this saying, That I just need to sell one more copy of a game than is necessary to get my publisher to fund my next one. So I'm looking at this as, I've got a responsibility to Mickey Mouse and to Disney, and if I do something really good, commercial success will follow. I've got to believe that. And once you start talking about painting, people's hands (on the Wii) just immediately start moving as if they're holding a brush. It just totally works. I think we're on the right platform.
People always talk about dog years, or cat years, but what about video game console years?
It's hard to know what that math is, but one thing is certain: Sony's PlayStation 2 turned 9 years old Wednesday, and it sure feels like the best-selling video game console of all time has been around a whole lot longer than that.
Yet even though we're already more than three years into the PlayStation 3/Xbox 360/Wii console generation, the PS2 is still going strong. Routinely, month after month, its sales are in six figures--146,000 in September in the United States alone, according to The NPD Group--and there's no reason to think the 485 (and counting) developers who have made games for the platform are going to stop any time soon.
The PS2 turned 9 on Wednesday. What's that in video game years, if dog and cat years are equal to 7 human years?
(Credit: Sony)In large part, that's because there are millions of people for whom the world-beating processing power of the PS3 and the Xbox 360, and the graphics-so-good-you-can-see-beads-of-sweat-on-sports-players'-bodies aren't worth paying several hundred dollars for. For $100, they say, you can get one heck of a good video game playing experience with a PS2.
It "still holds a place in my heart--there's so many great games with huge amounts of replay value," said Michael Steavenson, a public relations professional who bought his PS2 around 2001. "I'm not so interested in blazingly fast processing speeds, graphics that make games look like a movie, or uber-cutting-edge hardware stats. If the game is well-designed, fun to play, and provides me with a good emotional connection, I'll play it forever."
According to Sony, one out of every three U.S. households owns a PS2, and, worldwide, almost 140 million people have one. To date, Americans have bought more than half a billion PS2 games, and all told, nearly 10,000 titles have been released for the platform. Not bad for a machine that has earned the right to be living out its golden years sitting on a porch somewhere, smoking a cigar and grumbling about kids these days.
... Read more
The PS3 Slim, the newest iteration of the PlayStation 3, comes with the lowest price ever for the PS3: $299. Because of the price cut, the PS3's sales rose in August and September, and many people see signs of a resurgence for the console.
(Credit: Sony)Is Sony's PlayStation 3 at long last ready to stop being its rivals' punching bag?
With its first-place finish in September in number of units sold, Sony finally has a tangible response to persistent criticism that its PS3 can't keep up with its next-generation video game console competitors, Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Nintendo's Wii.
For the month, according to video game analysts at the NPD Group, Sony sold 491,800 PS3s in the United States, while Nintendo moved 462,800 Wiis and consumers bought 352,600 of Microsoft's Xbox 360s. It was the first time since the next-generation console wars began in earnest nearly three years ago that the PS3 finished a month on top.
Yet, as everyone knows, a single positive piece of data does not a trend make--something Sony's competitors are quick to point out--especially when the existing trend is so contradictory. So, on the heels of those rosy-at-long-last September numbers, and the August price cut and launch of the new PS3 Slim that preceded them, can Sony finally demonstrate conclusively to its detractors that it is through being badly outmaneuvered?
According to a group of experts interviewed for this article, the answer appears to be yes. No one will yet predict that Sony is ready to grab hold of the leadership position it enjoyed in previous console generations. However, there does seem to be widespread agreement that for the first time since its November 2006 launch, the PS3 is ready to seriously compete for that role.
"I think that the fact that they did introduce a new footprint for the PS3 (the Slim) and a lower price point, coupled with some of the really high-demand games" coming out for the platform, "could really prime the pump for Sony to have a resurgence for the PS3," said Brian Crecente, editor of the popular video game blog Kotaku.
"I do think that we are probably going to see, if not it topping the charts leading into the holiday, it...doing better than it has in (the recent) past," he said.
Beginning a comeback in a hole
There's no doubt, however, that Sony is beginning any PS3 resurgence in a rather sizable hole. Since the start of the current console generation (in November 2006 for the PS3 and the Wii, and November 2005 for the Xbox 360), Sony has sold 25.26 million PS3s worldwide and 9.76 million in the U.S, according to VGChartz, a Web site that aggregates video game sales data. By comparison, the Wii has moved 54.19 million units worldwide, of which 25.05 million were in the U.S., and Microsoft--with its one-year head-start--has sold 32.51 million Xboxes, including 18.66 million in the U.S.
By those measures, the PS3 has a minimum of a 2-1 disadvantage, in the U.S. at least, when it comes to the PS3 install base. That fact puts pressure on third-party developers working on games for the console because they know that there are at least twice as many Xbox buyers in the U.S. as there are for the PS3.
That dynamic, in turn, has led to one of the biggest complaints over the years about the PS3: that the software lineup has paled in comparison to that of the Xbox. To be sure, Sony has always disputed that notion.
Hard to prognosticate
Over the last three years, this space has been home to multiple arguments that the PS3 would one day emerge as the clear-cut winner of the next-gen console wars. But there's also been plenty of room here for the theory that Sony's flagship video game device was doomed to languish behind the Xbox and the Wii.
Clearly, prognostication about the PS3's fortunes has been difficult. And with the state of the economy in flux, supply chains always hard to analyze, and consumers' whims ever-changing, there's no way to know for sure how the console wars will go from here on out.
But Sony definitely feels like it's finally in the driver's seat.
"Overall, we're just hitting a stride that just (reasserts) what we knew all along--that there's tremendous value under the (PS3's) hood," said Julie Han, Sony PlayStation spokesperson.
That's a notion that video game industry analysts agree with. Yet when talking about Sony's laudable September numbers, they also point, first and foremost, to the fact that there were a lot of consumers sitting on the sidelines, just waiting for the company to lower the PS3's price. In August, with the release of the $299 PS3 Slim, Sony did just that.
"It's really a combination of pent-up demand and (the point) where value and pricing meet," said Jesse Divnich, an analyst with Electronic Entertainment Design and Research. "The (thing) about the PS3 was, it was really a system ahead of its time. Developers didn't really have the capabilities to take advantage of all the power in the PS3, and at the same time you had systems like the Wii, which just had perfect timing. But now, (the PS3) has caught up."
That means, Divnich continued, that the time has finally come where the PS3's jam-packed collection of a powerful video game console, a Blu-ray player, and built-in Wi-Fi met consumers' needs, even as the price dropped to where large numbers of people feel they can afford it. The lowest-priced Xbox costs $199, while the Wii runs $249.
Finally hitting a 'sweet spot'
Divnich said that at $299, the PS3 has finally hit its "sweet spot." And he said while it's likely the initial boost of sales that came as a result of the August price cut will slow down, "Long term, into 2010 and 2011, I don't think the PS3 is going to be in last place to the degree it was before. The gap between the systems will be much smaller."
For his part, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter said he expects the PS3 to outsell the Xbox during the holiday season because of the perceived value of the $299 PS3, loaded as it is with the Blu-ray player and Wi-Fi. He and others do, however, still think that Nintendo will sell more Wiis because of the broader general appeal of that device and the fact that it is seen as a better Christmas present.
"Is Sony back? Yeah," said Pachter. "Are they back as the leader? Probably not. Are they back in second? Probably."
Another analyst, Lazard Capital Markets Senior Vice President Colin Sebastian, also attributed the September PS3 sales boost to the "pent-up" demand for a lower price, and said that there would have been serious trouble for the console if the results had not been so good.
"If they had not shown the uptick with the price cut," Sebastian said, "then we'd all be putting a nail in the coffin for (the PS3). But what we're seeing is that there's still life left for the PS3, and that's an encouraging data point (for Sony)."
Still, as Pachter put it, "Microsoft is not the type of company that's going to stay (down) for a long time. They don't like it."
That's why, Pachter said, if the PS3 can keep pace with the Xbox for the next few months, there's a good chance that Microsoft will drop the price of its console another $50 sometime early next year, a move he doesn't think Sony would be able to match.
To be sure, Microsoft wouldn't easily cut the Xbox's price--"they're certainly not going to give money away just for the hell of it," Pachter said--but it is an arrow in their quiver.
Sebastian said he, too, could see an Xbox price cut next year, as well as one for the Wii. Would Sony follow suit if its rivals did so?
"They could do it," Sebastian said. "It's just a matter of what their tolerance is for absorbing less revenue on the hardware side, and whether they can make up that revenue on the software side."
According to Xbox spokesman David Dennis, a price cut is just one of many things Microsoft would consider as a way to keep pace with the market. He said other possibilities include different hardware and software bundles. "There's a lot of different levers you can pull," Dennis said.
Not surprisingly, Dennis is dismissive of the PS3's sales boost. He agreed that there were a lot of people waiting to buy the console at a lower price, but said that the impressive initial jump in units sold came as a result of early leaks of pictures and information about the PS3 Slim, and so there were "months of pent-up demand."
Further, he predicted that Sony would not see a sustained resurgence for its console and that even in September, when the PS3 outsold the Xbox and the Wii, Microsoft brought in more revenue for the entire Xbox ecosystem--including accessories, software, and fees for online services--than did Sony.
The two halves of 2010
In the end, most people seem to agree that the overall fortunes of the consoles have as much to do with software as price. That's why each of the analysts talked to for this story pointed to a bright future for Sony: They see a lot of strength in the PS3's coming games lineup, which includes titles like God of War III and Gran Turismo 5. And then there's also Sony's PlayStation Motion Controller, which could bring the PS3 more Wii-like functionality.
That's why Divnich said he thinks that the PS3 is likely to dominate the first half of 2010.
But he also expects that Microsoft will release its highly anticipated Project Natal motion-sensitive controller in the second half of 2010, a move that could stir up the console pot anew. Indeed, Divnich said he thinks that the Xbox will once again overtake the PS3 at that point.
And after that? It's anybody's guess.
On September 9, the Beatles will release their entire catalog, digitally re-mastered for the first time, on CD. The same day, The Beatles: Rock Band will be released, and there is speculation of an Apple music-related event the same day. Could it be an entertainment perfect storm?
(Credit: The Beatles)What is it with the Beatles and nines?
As my colleague Caroline McCarthy pointed out in March when the launch date (September 9, 2009) for The Beatles: Rock Band was announced, the band's song "Revolution 9" ends with the words, "number nine, number nine, number nine."
So clearly, the date 09/09/09 has at least some symbolic significance for the band. And now, in addition to that date being the launch of the Rock Band title, it was announced Tuesday that on that same day, the Beatles will release a CD box set of their entire catalog, digitally re-mastered for the first time, re-confirming reports from months ago.
At the same time, many people have been talking about the high likelihood of an all-music-related Apple event around some unknown product announcement on September 9. So, with all these facts--and some informed speculation--in hand, one has to think seriously that we may get a star-studded event with Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr (who, you may remember, showed up at Microsoft's E3 press conference to promote The Beatles: Rock Band) and, of course, Steve Jobs, to announce the availability of that same digitally re-mastered catalog on iTunes.
If that were to come to pass, it would seem to me an entertainment perfect storm. Of course, as is always the case with these things, we have to temper our enthusiasm because the most exciting speculation could well turn out not to be true. But if it does happen like this, well, it would easily be worth the price of admission.
As for today's news, EMI Music and Apple Corps--the Beatles' publishers--said that it took engineers at the famed Abbey Road Studios four full years "of utilizing state of the art recording technology, alongside vintage studio equipment, to create these amazing re-masters."
Having talked to the folks behind both The Beatles: Rock Band and the Cirque du Soleil's Beatle-themed "Love" about the re-mastering processes, I know that this is something that those involved with the band have been putting a lot of effort into over the last few years. And assuming that there will be a digital distribution element to this whole 09/09/09 thing, it's nice that after being very strict for years and years about how their music got out into the world, the band may finally have agreed to loosen the reins a little bit.
Of course, it's not altruism. There will no doubt be massive amounts of money flowing into the coffers of everyone financially involved with the band. And that's because even for people like me who already own the entire catalog on old mono CDs or records, there may be a few extra dollars available for legitimate digital copies of songs like "Hey Jude," "Yesterday," and "A day in the life."
But, of course, as of today, we don't know anything for certain about the Beatles and iTunes. What we do know is that The Beatles: Rock Band will have 45 songs, and that the digitally re-mastered CD collection will comprise all 12 Beatles studio albums--in stereo, no less--as well as "Magical Mystery Tour" and a combined "Past Masters Volume I and II," for a total of 14 titles on 16 CDs. The whole thing will be available, along with a DVD set of Beatles documentaries in one--presumably pricey--stereo boxed set.
Is this the new PS3 Slim? Rumors have it Sony may unveil such a device at the Gamescom show in Germany Tuesday. On the other hand, it may all be fanboy-driven fervor with no substance. Either way, to CNET News reporter Daniel Terdiman, the excitement is unlikely to be matched by the reality of anything Sony may introduce.
While all new technology product rumors have to be taken with a grain of salt, you can sometimes tell--often by the volume of online chatter about a particular morsel--that one is more likely to turn out to be true.
That seems to be the case with the so-called "PS3 Slim," a rumored new PlayStation 3 form factor that could well be on the horizon. And if the latest slew of blog and forum posts are right, there's a pretty good chance Sony will formally announce the new console Tuesday at the Gamescom conference in Cologne, Germany.
That may be true, and, of course, it may not. But what I want to know is why so many people seem to be so excited about this as-yet-unseen console? After all, the PS3--once thought by many to be the most likely winner of the next-generation console wars between Sony, Microsoft (with its Xbox 360), and Nintendo (with its Wii)--has lagged far behind its competitors.
... Read moreIn a stark reversal of the trend on display just a few short months ago--when general retail sales were plummeting even as the video games industry was still showing growth--cautious optimism in retail is now being offset by many losing months in video games.
In July, according to industry analyst the NPD Group, video game sales fell for the fifth straight month, and the year-over-year numbers are striking: In July, the video games business posted sales of $848.9 million, down 29 percent from $1.1 billion a year earlier. Year-to-date sales, reported NPD, were at $8.16 billion, down 14 percent from the same time period a year ago.
And things are only getting worse. While the industry's June numbers were down a full 31 percent from a year earlier, they still topped nine figures, coming in at $1.17 billion in June. But that means that in July, sales were down 27.4 percent from just a month earlier.
It wasn't that long ago that many people were making the argument that video games--because of their relatively low cost and many hours of entertainment value--were seen as close to recession-proof. But now, it would be hard for anyone to make that case.
Indeed, NPD analyst Anita Frazier wrote in a report Thursday that, "In order for the industry to come in flat or slightly up for the total year, the back five months of the year have to come in 11 percent (or more) higher than the last five months of last year."
That would seem to be a near impossible task, given the recent trend. But Frazier did throw the industry a bone: "While year-to-date results are weak, there are some big titles set to be released over the next several months, including Madden (10, from Electronic Arts) this month, which should help spur sales. The worst...should be behind us, and looking beyond August, we have The Beatles: Rock Band, Halo 3: ODST, and of course, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 to look forward to."
Not to mention Guitar Hero 5.
One thing was also made clear in NPD's July report: sales weaknesses in the industry are being seen across the board. However, hardware led the charge, with a drop in sales of 37 percent ($280.94 million in July, 2009, as opposed to $447.71 million a year earlier). Software and accessories were down 26 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
Microsoft was quick to jump on what may have been the only bright spot in NPD's report: that its Xbox 360 was the only console to deliver growth over a year earlier. In its own report, trumpeting NPD's numbers, Microsoft pointed out that the Xbox has turned in 17 percent growth for the year over the same period in 2008.
And while Nintendo's Wii still leads the pack among the big three consoles (the Xbox, Sony's PlayStation 3, and the Wii), its lead has shrunk considerably. In July, consumers bought 252,200 Wiis, versus 202,900 Xboxes and 121,800 PS3s.
All in all, it's hard to be optimistic about the industry's prospects, though, as Frazier pointed out, there are a slew of big titles coming down the pike that could drive big sales. Still, the same is true every year, and as a result, there are few who could argue at this point that the video game business is facing what may be its biggest crisis in years.
For some of the folks at Havok, playing Left 4 Dead together is a great way of team-building and bonding, and all without alcohol. Increasingly, companies are encouraging their employees to play games together as a way of bonding.
(Credit: Valve)
To thank him for letting them spend the last two hours of their workweek playing video games on the company dime, Kevin Grinnell's employees often single him out and shoot him in the head.
To be fair, the employees at Grinnell Computers aren't firing real weapons at their boss but are instead releasing the stresses of their week in a multiplayer online game known as Combat Arms.
Most Fridays for the last couple of months, the six employees of the Beaumont, Texas-based company have been encouraged to spend from 3 p.m. until 5 p.m. blasting away at the online first-person shooter from Nexon as a team-building exercise.
It's about "bonding," Grinnell said, when asked what the benefit to his company is of paying his team to play games. "We laugh until we cry when we play these games. We can do the thing where we have company dinners, and company functions, but those really aren't stress relief. At times, they can be more stress than they're worth."
Added employee Lee Mims, "You don't get to shoot your boss very much. It's kind of nice when you get a head shot on your boss."
At Grinnell Computers in Beaumont, Texas, employees play Combat Arms, from Nexon, with their boss, and even with clients.
(Credit: Nexon)Fans of the hit NBC show "The Office" may well remember an episode from season three called "The coup." In that episode, one of the main characters, Jim Halpert, had recently joined a different office of the paper supplies company he works for, only to fall haplessly into the branch's regular team-building sessions of the war game Call of Duty.
The scene may have been cooked up for its comedic effect, but it's no fiction that companies are turning more and more to video games as a way of building bridges between employees, or even between employees and management. And while there may be hierarchies to follow during the workday, it seems like chains of command often go out the window once co-workers get their game on.
That's a sentiment very familiar to Ross O'Dwyer, who runs the professional services group at the games middleware company, Havok, where for the last seven months or so, employees and management alike are engaging in regular evening games of the cooperative first-person shooter game Left 4 Dead.
Riffing on the famous Las Vegas marketing term, O'Dwyer said that, "I'm managing the guys, but at the same time, all bets are off when playing Left 4 Dead...What's said and done when playing Left 4 Dead is left in the game."
O'Dwyer said that after an employee started espousing the virtues of Left 4 Dead, several people in his office began playing the game using a single account that was "floating around."
Soon, though, as many as 12 employees had their own fully licensed copies of the game and now, many evenings are spent in the office with the team deep into Left 4 Dead sessions. And despite his status as their boss, during those sessions, O'Dwyer has found none of the respect he gets during the work day. Nor does he expect it.
"There's absolutely no lines of authority there," he said. "If I'm crap, if I'm the worst player on the team, that's the way it is. I will bow down to the...IT guy, who may be the best Left 4 Dead player on the team. We'll all fall in line, and I think that's great."
To O'Dwyer, the benefits of gathering his team for evenings of video gaming are clear: it's a great way of building cohesion.
"The CEO was in and he thought it was great to see so many people playing games," O'Dwyer said, "and actually spending more time together, and letting the barriers down a little bit."
Of course, while the folks at Havok are getting their game on in the evenings, at Grinnell Computers, it's a Friday afternoon thing.
Company owner Grinnell said that he offers his employees a choice: spend the last two hours of each Friday--when things are slow at his network installation and repair firm and the phones aren't ringing--playing Combat Arms on the clock, or take those same two hours off, unpaid.
And while he said he doesn't twist anyone's arm to play, there's no doubt that employees are going to want to get paid for their time.
Eating their own dog food
As one might expect, examples of companies in the video game business encouraging employees to play games together are easy to find. But while it may be a relatively new dynamic for colleagues to play multiplayer games as team building, there's long been a tradition of game playing in the office, said Min Kim, the vice president of marketing at Combat Arms publisher Nexon.
"People have been playing games in the office for years, with (single-player) Flash games and fantasy football," Kim said. "Games like Combat Arms are very social in that people are playing together--(which) builds team morale."
And Kim added that he thinks of multiplayer video games like Combat Arms as akin to playing basketball or golf, or even going out for a drink, as a way for colleagues to learn more about each other. But Combat Arms, for one, costs nothing, he pointed out, so properly managed, it is nothing but a net positive for companies.
To Kim Pallister, the director of content planning at Intel's visual computing group, it's a matter of getting more employees to take part in the very genre that pays the group's bills.
"We do quarterly gaming nights where we'll...get over a hundred people participating," Pallister said. "We'll set up...high-end PC gaming rigs for multiplayer, and we'll have consoles set up for things like Wii Sports, Rock Band, Dance Dance Revolution, etc. It's not only good for team-building, it gives everyone a chance to 'eat our own dog food' and see how games play on our hardware."
At the giant video game publisher Electronic Arts, a similar scene played out as a way of getting an in-development game closer to completion.
According to Robin Hunicke, then a senior member of the team making EA's Boom Blox, "The Boom Blox and Boom Blox Bash Party teams did round-robin tournaments with their QA teams during development to encourage playing the game."
Hunicke said that one purpose was to look for bugs in the games specific to multiplayer sessions, but another was to "improve cross-team communication."
The lead designer won both tournaments, Hunicke said.
No alcohol needed
In a recent advice column in The New York Times, Eilene Zimmerman addressed the question of whether it's a good idea for co-workers to drink alcohol if everyone else, including their boss, is imbibing.
Zimmerman's conclusion: Be very wary of mixing work and alcohol, even after-hours.
To O'Dwyer, playing video games with colleagues after work is a much better--and quicker--way to go, particularly because of the bonding that comes with trying to go after a common enemy the way he and his employees do in Left 4 Dead.
"You don't have to spend hours, and you don't need alcohol," O'Dwyer said. "You don't need to be half-twisted (drunk) before people let their guards down."
And that's important in an environment where every time the phone rings, it means trouble is calling.
"It's great stress relief," said Grinnell of Grinnell Computers. "Our business is incredibly stressful. People don't call us unless something bad has happened."
But Grinnell added that his company's Friday afternoon Combat Arms games have grown to include both the firm's outside lawyer and even one of its clients. And while the company already had a strong relationship with the client, Grinnell said playing the game together has only enhanced the mutual understanding.
"Yeah, we've gotten to know them better," Grinnell joked, "especially when they talk smack and you get to give them a head shot."





