Geek Gestalt

If worldwide headlines about the record-setting first-day and first-week sales of Grand Theft Auto IV weren't enough, the game's publisher and its developer, Take-Two Interactive and Rockstar Games, now have a Guinness world record to boot.

On Tuesday morning, Guinness issued a press release certifying the game's insanely profitable launch as the entertainment industry's best ever for one day ($310 million) and one week ($500 million).

Interestingly, in stories I've written about this previously, I wrote that GTA IV had broken the single-day record of $170 million previously held by Bungie Studio's Xbox 360 game, Halo 3. In many stories, by both me and others, it has been exhaustively pointed out that the best video game launches had far outdone those by the best films.

According to the Guinness release, however, the previous record was actually not a video game at all. Rather, it was J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows, the final book in that cash-cow series, which when it launched last July, earned $220 million in its first 24 hours.

If this is true, then Microsoft--which owned Bungie at the time--was wrong when it touted the first-day sales of Halo 3 as the then-best entertainment-industry launch.

Funny that despite the incredible sales of the last Harry Potter, no one, myself included, had thought to include books on the list of best launches.

Well, no matter. Now, even that record has fallen to the might of the GTA IV machine.

Humorously, as part of its release, Guinness is hawking its new Guinness World Records: Gamer's Edition 2008, obviously trying to tie the GTA IV record to the new book. It's a natural link to make, of course, although the book was published before the new record.

I have the book, and it's kind of fun. There's a lot of interesting video game trivia, obscure records, and much more.

But, alas, no mention of the GTA IV record.

On June 10, Geek Gestalt hits the highways for Road Trip 2008. I'll start in Orlando, Fla., and visit many of the South's most interesting destinations. Stay tuned, and be sure to keep up, both now and during the trip, with what I'm doing on Twitter.

'Grand Theft Auto IV' broke the all-time records for single-day and one-week entertainment industry sales. It looks like it could be tough for any forthcoming game to knock GTA IV off the top of the hill.

(Credit: Rockstar Games)

Though Halo 3 held the all-time entertainment industry record for single-day sales for eight months, it could be a long time before anyone bests the record-shattering sales achieved by GTA IV.

On Wednesday, Take-Two Interactive, which owns GTA IV developer Rockstar Games, announced that the new game had raked in all-time records of $310 million on its launch day of April 29 and $500 million during its first week. The single-day figure shattered the previous record, set last September by Halo 3, of $170 million.

And given how quickly Bungie Studios' Halo 3 was reduced to second place, it stands to reason that even the monstrous pile of cash GTA IV has earned so far--it has already sold more than 6 million copies, Take-Two said--could be in danger from some game already in the pipeline.

Among the games that are set to be released in the next few months that seem like potential contenders: Electronic Arts' Spore, Blizzard Entertainment's StarCraft II, Konami's Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, EA's 2009 version of Madden football, LucasArts' Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, Activision's next Guitar Hero offering, Harmonix's next Rock Band version and Nintendo's Wii Fit.

And since we're talking the entire entertainment industry, there's also the small matter of the forthcoming Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull from Paramount and LucasFilm.

But according to several industry experts contacted for this story, none of those titles seems likely to score the kind of cash in a single day or single week that GTA IV did. So while one of those games, or possibly another one not listed might some day best GTA IV in total sales, it seems that its short-term sales records are safe for the foreseeable future.

"If you measure in terms of one-day sales," said Michael Pachter, a video game analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities, "there's likely nothing (that can break the record) until the next GTA."

In large part, Pachter said, that's because the GTA franchise has the significant advantage of being perhaps the world's most popular video game title that is available on multiple video game platforms. Indeed, many analysts have said that the game is not only selling well on its own, but is also driving sales of the consoles it can be played on, Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Sony's PlayStation 3.

By comparison, Halo 3 is only available for the Xbox 360.

"The special thing about GTA is that it's a cross-platform title and can leverage the install bases of both" consoles, said IDC games analyst Billy Pidgeon. "The fact that you could only play Halo on the Xbox 360 made a difference."

And beyond the cross-platform versus single-platform issue, there's also the small matter of the miniscule selection of full-fledged AAA games that simply attract huge audiences.

"Halo and GTA are fairly unique properties in the interactive entertainment world," said Colin Sebastian, a senior analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, "so it's difficult to say if anything in the next couple of years will reach these (early sales) levels."

That said, there's no reason to think that GTA IV will set or hold any kind of long-term sales numbers. While it's certain to make gigantic amounts of money and sell many, many millions of copies, it's not necessarily the kind of game that will sustain its sales over the long haul. Rather, it's the kind of game the attracts hard-core gamers, most of whom want to get it right away.

"If you measure in terms of lifetime sales, I think Wii Fit," Nintendo's forthcoming exercise game, could break sales records, said Pachter. "I think it's going to attach about a one-third rate to all Wiis, and globally, that means (since there have been 20 million Wiis sold), it'll pass GTA IV by the end of next year."

Some people are expecting Spore, the next game from The Sims creator Will Wright, to be a big winner for EA, particularly because The Sims became the best-selling PC game of all time and recently passed 100 million total units sold, counting all its expansions and sequels.

"Personally, I think Spore is going to be a huge influence on the games industry," Pidgeon said. "And I think it's going to do well. I don't know if it's going to be another Sims, but I think it will be broadly popular."

But Spore presents a couple of problems, at least in terms of whether or not it could be an all-time best-selling game. First, it is a PC--and Mac--title, not a console game. And secondly, according to Pidgeon, it doesn't seem an obvious choice for endless expansions like The Sims franchise is.

Another set of titles that could contend for the all-time sales records, though probably not the short-term records, are the Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises, since they will likely have an endless supply of expansions and accessories. And they have long-term potential that even GTA probably can't match.

"Guitar Hero and Rock Band (are) franchises where, when you add the numbers up, they're just spectacular," said Pidgeon. "You see them played in bars, and (they present) a really interesting growth opportunity. There's a lot of room for exciting growth in that sort of product. That's the sort of thing you don't see with GTA.

And while none of the analysts interviewed for this article could see any already announced game topping GTA IV's short-term records, that doesn't mean it won't happen.

In fact, the timing of the GTA IV launch itself could eventually be why it gets surpassed.

"Part of this is also where we are in the hardware cycle," Pidgeon said, explaining that GTA IV was published when the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 have only been out for a couple of years. Over time, as millions more gamers bring those consoles home, "it'll be easier for some blockbuster title to sell big."

'Grand Theft Auto IV' could break the all-time entertainment industry record for first-day sales. That record is currently held by 'Halo 3,' which earned $170 million in its first day last September.

(Credit: Rockstar Games)

Executives at Electronic Arts have to be kicking themselves right about now.

It appears that Take-Two Interactive, the video game publisher EA has been trying to buy for the last couple of months, has a potentially record-breaking hit on its hands with Grand Theft Auto IV. And EA isn't pocketing the cash.

While it's too early to know exactly how many copies of GTA IV sold Tuesday, the game's launch day, anecdotal evidence suggests it will likely be one of the most successful launches in the entertainment industry's history--if not the most.

"We are saying that the launch of this game is tracking to be one of the top three best-selling games," said Chris Olivera, vice president of corporate communications for GameStop, "not of just this year, but the top three games in (our) company's history."

The latest title in what was already one of the most blockbuster game franchises of all time, GTA IV hit store shelves Tuesday morning with midnight madness events nationwide. The game had sparked controversy, with some politicians and critics calling for retailers to avoid selling it, but that didn't seem to dissuade consumers.

"Thirty-five hundred of our stores nationwide did midnight launch events," Olivera said. "One thing was constant through all of it, that there were lines around buildings and down mall corridors" wherever GameStop's stores were.

Last year, Microsoft took the unusual step of releasing first-day sales figures for its mega-hit Halo 3 because that game set the all-time entertainment industry record for launch day sales, $170 million.

'Halo 3' earned $170 million on its first day of sales. But Take-Two's 'GTA IV' looks poised to break that record and become the single highest-earning entertainment product in history, including movies.

(Credit: Bungie)

While we may not know if that's true until industry analyst firm The NPD Group reports April sales early next month, there's reason to believe the Halo 3 record will be short-lived.

Partly, that prediction stems from reports that GTA IV publisher Take-Two said it had worldwide preorder demand of 6 million copies of the game--or about $360 million worth at the game's $60 price tag.

There are also comments, like those expressed to CNET News.com sister site GameSpot by Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter: "There is no question that GTA will be huge. I think that the game will sell 11 (million) to 13 million copies by calendar year end, with probably 4 million the first week."

On the other hand, suggested NPD analyst Anita Frazier, if GTA IV breaks the Halo 3 record, Take-Two might find a reason to release the game's first-day sales numbers itself.

The console factor
One interesting difference between the launch of GTA IV--which was released for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3--and its predecessor, the hugely popular GTA: San Andreas, is the install base of the consoles the games are available on.

Frazier said that when GTA: San Andreas was released in 2004, there was already an install base of 25 million PlayStation 2s, the only console that game was initially released on. By comparison, GTA IV is coming out earlier in the release cycles of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.

"The combined install base of the PS3 and Xbox 360 now sits at 14 million," Frazier said, "and surely huge hardware numbers will be driven by the release of GTA IV.

Olivera concurred.

"This (game) is definitely drawing people into (GameStop) stores to also pick up hardware," Olivera said, "both the Xbox 360 and the PS3."

Another metric of the intense interest in GTA IV: statistics from Gamespot's Trax service, which measures site traffic for specific games.

According to Gamespot Trax, Gamespot users did 70,441 searches for "Grand Theft Auto IV" in the 30 days prior to its release, vs. 20,772 for Halo 3 and 10,598 for Guitar Hero III, another one of the best-selling games of all time.

So, as Take-Two's executives are no doubt popping champagne and toasting the massive initial success of their new game, one has to wonder what the thinking is over at EA and whether it will have to modify its $2 billion bid for Take-Two.

As Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian told me Monday, "The expectations for GTA were already justifiably very high. EA understood that when they made their bid...Every day that passes, they're (going to be) losing out on GTA revenues, so they're likely to lower their bid over time...But if GTA massively exceeds their expectations, that could be a scenario where EA might have to raise their bid."

In the meantime, stay tuned to see if Take-Two issues any press releases about GTA IV Wednesday. If it does, I'm willing to bet that will mean Halo 3's record will be history.

Microsoft unveiled its Creators Club, an initiative that will allow community members to have their games distributed on Xbox Live.

(Credit: Daniel Terdiman/CNET Networks)

SAN FRANCISCO--In a frenetic keynote address at the Game Developers Conference here, Microsoft showed off the next phase of a strategy it claims will "democratize" game development and distribution.

For several years, Microsoft has been working on its XNA Studio, a platform that allows anyone to create games for the Xbox and for Windows.

But now, the company is expanding the XNA offering to allow the best community-created games to be uploaded to and distributed from Xbox Live.

Microsoft is calling the new offering its "Creators Club," and the idea is to present the Xbox Live and XNA communities with a way to create games using the XNA tools, submit them for peer review, and then put the best of them up on Xbox Live.

And while Microsoft Corporate Vice President John Schappert was designated the actual keynote speaker, the most important news that emerged from the talk was delivered by Chris Satchell, head of Microsoft's game development group.

He talked at length about the Creators Club initiative, explaining how game developers in the community would be able to get their games examined for possible inclusion.

"This is gaming created by the community, managed by the community, and enjoyed by everyone," Satchell said.

Essentially, he explained, just about any game created by someone in the community would be eligible to be included in Xbox Live, though he did say that peer reviewers would be tasked with excluding those with "objectionable" content. He didn't define it. It's probably a little bit of that old Supreme Court definition of obscenity.

Satchell also offered up another of the most notable pieces of news in the Microsoft keynote. He said that it would now be possible to take games created using the XNA tools and put them on Zunes, the company's portable music players.

And because the Zune is a wireless device, he added, Zune games can be multiplayer. Additionally, music from someone's Zune library can be used as the soundtrack for a game.

All told, Satchell said, the XNA Studio initiative has proved to be a success. He said that since the tools were first introduced in 2006, there have been more than 800,000 copies downloaded.

For his part, Schappert began the keynote with some impressive statistics about the video game industry.

He said that the industry netted $18 billion in revenue in the United States in 2007, a figure that now not only eclipses Hollywood box office figures, but also worldwide music revenues.

For Microsoft, the Xbox 360--which has become a hard-to-find game machine recently--has been a winner, with seven titles selling more than a million copies during the 2007 holiday season. The Xbox is currently the leader in total sales among the three next-gen consoles.

Schappert also touted the success of Xbox Live, which he said has earned more than a quarter billion dollars in money spent on downloadable games.

In addition, he said that one feature built into Microsoft's hit game Halo 3--a tool that would allow players to upload video clips from their play to Xbox Live--has generated unprecedented popularity.

There are more than 100,000 clips uploaded every day, a number he said was 30 percent higher than the number of YouTube clips added daily.

That was pretty much the noteworthy news from what was altogether a fairly mundane keynote address.

There were a few additional tidbits, such as the fact that Grand Theft Auto IV would be available for the Xbox on April 29, and that Gears of War 2 would be released this November.

I got a hilarious e-mail this morning from video game giant Activision touting the tremendous sales of the latest iteration of its hit franchise, Guitar Hero.

The subject line of the e-mail began, "Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock earns $115 in first week."

After I got through blinking a few times to make sure I was reading it right--I was--I looked into the body of the e-mail and saw that, yes, the company had left out a rather meaningful word: "million."

'Guitar Hero III' netted opening week sales of $115 million, the biggest first week in Activision's history.

(Credit: Activision)

So, no, Guitar Hero III didn't sell two copies in its first week. It actually did rather spectacularly, netting the highest opening-week sales for any game in Activision's history, with a total of $115 million in revenues.

That's not bad, though it does pale slightly in comparison to the opening day sales of $170 million for Halo 3, a statistic that Microsoft touted as the single-biggest opening day in entertainment history.

Whatever. It's pretty clear that Guitar Hero III did pretty well, and kudos to Activision, RedOctane--the Activision-owned studio that published the game--and Neversoft, the developers, for that.

I interviewed Dusty Welch, RedOctane's head of publishing today, and the Q&A will be posted within a few days. Please stay tuned for some interesting reading about Welch's thoughts on Guitar Hero's heritage, its future, its place in the market, and lots more.