As market research firm NPD Group prepares to release sales data data for the U.S. game market next Thursday, other analysts have predicted a return to double-digit growth after six months of decline.
According to Edge Online, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research's Jesse Divnich expect monthly software sales of $750 million (up 21 percent year over year) and $715 million (up 16 percent), respectively. And while these are still just estimates, it shows that consumers are still willing to spend on high-quality new games.
EEDAR's top 10 forecast:
Halo 3: ODST (360, Microsoft) - 1,800,000
Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) - 500,000
The Beatles: Rock Band (Wii, EA) - 350,000
The Beatles: Rock Band (360, EA) - 325,000
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (360, Activision) - 300,000
Madden NFL 10 (360, EA) - 275,000
Batman: Arkham Asylum (360, Eidos) - 250,000
Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Eidos) - 250,000
Guitar Hero 5 (360, Activision) - 250,000
Guitar Hero 5 (Wii, Activision) - 200,000
One interesting note on the top 10 list is that it contains only seven titles, which shows the importance of supporting multiple consoles.
People who prefer playing a home video game to going out to the movies are in good company, according to a recent survey.
Almost 64 percent of Americans have played a video game in the past six months versus only 53 percent who have gone out to see a movie, according to a report from market research firm NPD Group.
The March report, part of NPD's "Entertainment Trends in America" study, also noted that consumers now splurge one-third of their entertainment dollar on video games. The average gamer spent a bit more than $38 per month, with 31 percent of all those surveyed having bought a game over the past 12 months.
One factor for the surge in gaming is the number of new outlets, such as social networks and online gaming sites, said the report. Around 10 percent of people surveyed have played video games on a social network, while five percent have paid to download games online.
"Video games account for one third of the average monthly consumer spending in the U.S. for core entertainment content, including music, video, games," said Anita Frazier, video games industry analyst for NPD. "While a portion of that share stems from the premium price of console games, we're also seeing an overall increase in the number of people participating in gaming year-over-year."
The results of the NPD study were based on an online survey that received responses from more than 11,000 U.S. consumers. Despite gaming's popularity, another NPD study found that video game sales have slumped this year in comparison to 2008, a year in which game sales soared.
For the second straight month, video game industry sales tumbled nearly 17 percent year over year, a downward trend for a market segment that had previously seemed resistant to the economic pressures of the recession.
In April, according to industry analyst NPD Group, the industry posted revenue of $1.03 billion, down 16.9 percent from the $1.24 billion it recorded in April 2008. Sales for the month were also down 30 percent from $1.43 billion in March.
NPD analyst Anita Frazier cautioned in a report that it's hard to reach the conclusion that the industry has begun to soften, noting that "it's important to remember that April (2009) is being compared against a month--April 2008--that realized nearly 50 percent growth over April 2007."
Frazier also noted that the industry's performance last month was its second-best April on record, and that unit sales across the board were down just 5 percent, with the rest of the revenue decline coming as a result of reduced "average selling prices."
Still, there's little doubt that the trend line is heading down, both broadly and rapidly. March's numbers were already down 2.7 percent from February's $1.47 billion, and in April, each of the three major video game consoles--Microsoft's Xbox 360, Nintendo's Wii, and Sony's PlayStation 3--saw sizable sales drops. Xbox sales were off 47 percent, while the Wii and PS3 were down 43.4 percent and 41.7 percent, respectively.
The only bright spot, on the hardware side of things at least, was the newest generation of Nintendo's DS handheld gaming device, the DSi, which launched during the month. In April, Nintendo sold 1.04 million handhelds, up 84.7 percent for the month.
Perhaps most interesting in those numbers is the steep decline in sales of the Wii, which has been dominating console sales for some time. The Wii did still lead the pack in April, but there have been rumblings about its strength softening in recent months, despite the console now being easy to buy. Earlier in the year, and especially during the holiday season, it was nearly impossible to find a Wii for sale at retail. These days, they are readily available at many stores.
But Frazier, again trying to soften the blow of the April numbers, noted that the Wii's 52.4 percent year-over-year sales drop (Nintendo moved 714,000 Wiis in April 2008) was partly attributable to the fact that a year ago the console's fortunes had been driven by the launch of two "huge new titles: Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Mario Kart."
On June 22, Geek Gestalt will kick off Road Trip 2009. After driving more than 12,000 miles in the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest, and the Southeast over the last three years, I'll be looking for the best in technology, science, military, nature, aviation and more in Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and South and North Dakota. If you have a suggestion for someplace to visit, drop me a line. And in the meantime, join the Road Trip 2009 Facebook page and follow my Twitter feed.
March revenues for the video game industry dropped 17 percent from a year ago, the NPD Group reported Thursday, the first time in the current recession that the business has seen sales fall.
For the month, the analyst firm reported that the industry turned in total sales of $1.43 billion, down 17 percent from $1.72 billion a year earlier. Hardware sales were down 18 percent, while software was down 17 percent.
But while the numbers look poor, NPD analyst Anita Frazier said she attributed some of the drop to the vagaries of the calendar.
"While it might be tempting to jump to the conclusion that the sky is starting to fall on the video games industry given this month's results, it's important to remember that two very big things are different this year than last," Frazier wrote in a note accompanying NPD's report. "First, Easter fell in March last year whereas it fell in April this year, and last March included the release of Super Small Bros.: Brawl, which went on to become the fourth best-selling game in 2008."
Perhaps, but one game's fortunes are unlikely to be enough to turn around an entire industry, especially given that hardware sales dropped about the same as overall revenues.
Overall sales were also down 2.7 percent from February's $1.47 billion, and each of the six hardware platforms NPD tracks--Sony's PlayStation 3, PS2 and PSP, Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Nintendo's Wii and DS--had lower sales in March than in February. The PS3 and Wii led the drops, with 21.0 percent and 20.2 percent lower sales, respectively.
By comparison, the Xbox saw its sales fall between February and March, but less than the PS3 and Wii, and Frazier reported that Microsoft's console was the only one with good year-over-year news.
"While it's not unusual for March hardware sales to be lower than February," Frazier wrote, "I thought we'd see higher unit sales on most platforms. The Xbox 360 was the only platform to achieve a year-over-year sales increase."
Frazier also said Nintendo's numbers were noteworthy, given the effect of Super Smash Bros.: Brawl on the company's March 2008 sales.
"Wii and NDS hardware sales remained brisk, taking the top two spots for (March 2009) in hardware unit sales," she wrote. 'It's important to keep in mind that the (game's) effect from last year impacted hardware sales as well, so while the year-over-year comps are down for the Wii, the sales are still impressive."
Still, the Wii--the darling of the video game industry media since its surprise success became almost institutionalized--has seen some negative press recently.
In March, for the first time, the PS3 outsold the Wii in Japan, and many observers wondered if that milestone indicated that Nintendo's console's dominance had finally come to an end.
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