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December 9, 2008 8:14 AM PST

Does the Xbox 720 need Blu-ray to succeed?

by Don Reisinger
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The Xbox 360 is still trying to cement itself as one of the leaders in the current generation of gaming, yet there's already talk about its follow-up, the Xbox 720.

Interviewed in the latest Major Nelson podcast, Microsoft Games Studios chief, Phil Spencer explained that the resurgence of the E3 of old means Microsoft will need to step up its game this year and possibly discuss more than its short-term plans.

"The last two E3s at least, if I use that as a proxy for what's coming, we've talked a lot about what is coming in the next five to six months after E3, and we've had some pressure that maybe we want to think a little broader about what we want to say at E3, a little further out in the future," he said in the interview.

"I came out of an E3 planning meeting just about an hour ago, and we were looking at some of the plans for the future and things that we might want to tease, and it's very exciting," he continued. "There's a lot of stuff on the docket, and maybe we'll break the bank a little bit and talk about things that are further out, which will hopefully get the community excited."

What sort of things will Microsoft discuss? The company isn't saying. But you can bet that if it really wants to discuss the future, the Xbox 720 will highlight that discussion.

If it does, what should we expect from Microsoft? Surely, the company won't want to show its hand too early--the next generation is probably at least two years away--but it still wants to lay the gauntlet down and reassure consumers that although the Xbox 360 is a fine product to buy now, the Xbox 720 will be the best console of the next generation.

Great. But what about the Blu-ray issue?

There's no way Microsoft will install a Blu-ray drive into the Xbox 720, and to be quite honest, I don't think there's any reason for it to do so. The reasons are simple. First, Microsoft doesn't want to pay a competitor--Sony, the key backer behind the Blu-ray Disc Association--to use its format. Second, and perhaps most important, Microsoft realizes that Blu-ray isn't an ideal format, given the fact Blu-ray's chance of success is very much in doubt.

The single benefit Blu-ray provides to developers is its capacity. But once another generation rolls around, doesn't it stand to reason that producing DVDs will be even less expensive and that it may yield a more cost-effective approach than using Blu-ray anyway?

Beyond cost, what's so bad with DVD? The games look perfectly fine on the format, most developers haven't had too much trouble developing for DVDs, and even fewer have spent time complaining that it's not as capable as Blu-ray. In fact, I've heard more gripes from developers about Blu-ray than DVD lately.

But we also can't forget that gaming is moving in an entirely different. Over the next few generations, the need for media like DVD or Blu-ray will diminish and games will be purchased over the Web and downloaded to a hard drive on the console. It's already happening now in small amounts. But rest assured that as the industry realizes the benefit of sending games directly to you and Blu-ray loses its fight against streaming, you can bet that all this talk about formats will be just another stepping stone in the storied history of gaming.

Until that happens, though, I simply don't see any reason for Microsoft to offer Blu-ray in the Xbox 720. I see no reason to pay a competitor for the use of its format when it's cheaper to develop for another that's perfectly fine.

The future of gaming has nothing to do with Blu-ray. And although we don't know what Microsoft will include in the Xbox 720, I'm willing to bet it'll feature DVD and a strong online component where buying games through Xbox Live is made simpler.

It's the smart move.

Check out Don's Digital Home podcast, Twitter feed, and FriendFeed.

Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.

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by December 9, 2008 8:55 AM PST
Sorry to say it but Major nelson is right. They are heading the right direction. Most likely microsoft will design their next console with a 1 or 2 terabyte hard drive, start working of the network. It is more convenient to have it stored. Even if the hard drive goes bad they still have a list of all your purchased items so you can re-download them again. I think is a far better idea than to buy a disc that has more risk of going bad. Once the Blue-ray disc goes bad there's no warranty.

Also i'm thinking they are still a little bitter about loosing the format war. It can be implied from this article. So this is microsoft way of saying by my effort blue-ray is going down.
Reply to this comment
by johnbuker December 9, 2008 11:58 AM PST
If they go with a system that requires games be played off the hard drive, then I'd hope they allow the use of off the shelf hard drives.
by bubblebathgirl December 9, 2008 2:37 PM PST
It's quite clear that there are a lot of angry XBOTS here who would have been singing quite a different tune had HD DVD not flopped horribly.

Blu-ray won and now the 360 Red Ring of Death owners are all upset and willing to rely on old (way dated) technology like DVD.

A little advice: don't be angry. If higher quality experiences are something you're not interested in, then sure, stick with Microsoft and the 360. If you want games with 5-10 times more potential, then go with Sony and Blu-ray, it's just that simple.

It's downright ignorant, and quite transparent, to say that one technology is the end or beginning of everything. Sure digital downloads are great, but so is "hold it in your hand" media, and that won't go away for a very very long time.

So please, leave your sour grapes at home. Companies like Toshiba and Microsoft are copy-cat minded wannabees who come out with inferior products that simply don't work well. Whereas companies like Apple and Sony are pioneering their respective fields and bringing quality and imagination to the consumer. This is why Apple and Sony are rising high even in these difficult times, when companies like Microsoft and Toshiba are trying desperate marketing campaigns as they find their market share plummeting.

The smart bet is on Apple and Sony for the coming years, watch for them to bring us stuff that inspires, and just works well.
by BCF1968 December 9, 2008 2:40 PM PST
1-2 TB HDD? HA HA! MS only offers a measly 120 GB HDD now when clearly a MUCH larger one is needed if they intend for people to download games, movies etc to their HDD. MS needs to offer at least a 250 GB HDD. Of course if they did they'd price it a double at what is should cost.
by C433Z December 9, 2008 2:53 PM PST
that's basically what steam does and i love it :). also, you can install steam on any other computer, download the game on that hdd and play it there as well.
by bubblebathgirl December 9, 2008 3:25 PM PST
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=2153

Blu-ray player sales over 50% market share in Japan.

Microsoft, listen up, this is what is know as "the writing is on the wall". The world is going Blu, if you don't you will fail just like HD DVD. Frankly I hope you do fail like HD DVD, so you'll go away and stop making horrible products that consistently don't work right.

Start inspiring, or just go die please.
by Mashimato December 9, 2008 8:22 PM PST
Can Don pay for my Comcast bill !?! I'm currently capped at 250gb (Thanks to FCC supporting Comcast) per a month and it has forced me to split my internet download, surfing, streaming, and let alone gaming time. It currently takes a few days to download 50 gb worth of data through my current connections. If there was a faster way, also if internet speeds for the rest of America catches up than I would be happy. As of now it would take me 5 blue-ray disc at 400gb each to back up my entire computer.
by NPGMBR December 10, 2008 7:39 AM PST
If there is anything to learn from the post here is that bubblebathgirl is a joke. So sales of BlueRay are 50% in Japan.....hmmmm that makes sense because Japanese consumers are loyal to Sony and the Japanese tend to adopt technology much faster than Americans and the rest of the world.

Just in case you didn't know it BlueRay won the battle but has not caught on in the United States. People here see value in DVD and see no reason to move to the higher priced BlueRay. There is no doubt that entertainment is moving to the net. Its already happening with music and television in a very big way. Movies are just the next medium to fall in line and the majority of consumers see that. If you have a DVD player and a library of movies in DVD format there really is no good reason to switch and be stuck with BlueRay when everything shifts to the net.

Heres a little nugget for ya....Stop hatin on Microsoft and get a clue!
by compudoc318 December 10, 2008 7:52 AM PST
i disagree about blu ray not catching on, did you see how many people were buying dark night on blu ray yesterday, i only saw one guy in target with the dvd while i was there, the blu ray was almost sold out. I love blu ray, with the right tv and hdmi, its a very noticable difference in video and sound. Heck, ive got 3 friends in their 40s who bought ps3s just for bluray, dont even have a game! The price is even coming down with 150 dollar players and 15 to 20 dollar movies. blu ray is not going to leave, at least not now, and saying its dead already sounds like the same people saying keep vcrs, dvd is a bad technology!
by zgreenwell December 10, 2008 1:02 PM PST
What's sad is that Microsoft could do all of this right now with its PC market and is not. They recently released a Games for Windows Live marketplace that would be a perfect competition for Steam if only it offered downloads of their games. I logged into it thinking I might be able to download Lost Planet Colonies or Quantum of Solace, but you can't.

On the 360 side, downloads would be my choice for where to go. The only problem is all the sales of games like Lego Star Wars that would be lost because Parents don't have the 360 hooked up to the internet or don't know how to use the marketplace. This being Christmas season, it is also hard to wrap a download and put under the tree. I don't know if those download cards you find at target, for xbox live arcade titles, have been successful or not.
by Spartan_458 December 10, 2008 2:06 PM PST
bubblebathgirl,

You're funny, because you apparently like to pay more for your games and a game system (PS3). I have no doubt that digital downloads are going to take over, and a lot sooner than you think. Netflix is already putting the infrastructure into place with its "Watch Now" service. It has so much more potential because it's kinda hard to store 20,000 discs in your house. Your precious over-priced Blu-ray will be obsolete within a few years, and guess what? DVD will still be around because it is cheaper to manufacture and buy, and it will still be the first choice for the movie studios to sell their movies on. Most consumers can't tell the difference between Blu-ray and DVD, so they can't justify paying $30 for a movie that they can get for $10.

It seems as though you are just another typical Sony/Apple fanboy/girl who takes in whatever crap they put out. It just so happens that the Xbox 360 has outsold the PS3 quite handily because it's a GAME system, not an overpriced movie player that happens to also play games.
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by ClarkWells December 9, 2008 9:02 AM PST
Blu Ray is already a out-of-date technology... Why would i spend money on (usually $25 per disc) on buying blue ray movies when there is always the possibility that they will just get scratched or lost??? And when there are plenty of services coming out and already out(netflix watch now, xbox live) that will soon and already allow me to download/stream HD..

It just makes no sense to invest in brand new technology and movie libraries when they are just going to invent something new as soon as i get a pretty nice library going.

I will keep using online services for streaming and such cause i will never have to re-buy libraries of movies.
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by pjhenry1216 December 9, 2008 9:54 AM PST
What do you use for streaming that allows you to keep the movie indefinitely and can move from platform to platform and if its lost allows you to download again for free? I mean... you say you don't have to re-buy libraries and those were the downsides of blu-ray so I assume whatever online service you use solves those problems...
by brigz0006 December 9, 2008 10:02 AM PST
thats a good idea. never invest in new technology because something better will come out in the future.
by simbadogg December 9, 2008 10:45 AM PST
Yeah...thanks for posting, next time try writing about something that you actually no about. do you even know how resistant blu ray discs are to scratching? its absolutely ridiculous.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5jEbZt6AIQ
if a blu ray disc will hold up to steel wool, or a pen, i think it'll do just fine if you leave it out sitting on your desk.


And to the writer of this article, ABSOLUTELY DVD must go. It will not work in any console for the next generation (except it nintendo makes a next gen which is equivalent to the "previous" generation and still uses a dvd drive. If i remember correctly i think that the PGR dev team said they would have put night courses on their latest game, but they couldn't because of lack of space. I believe for fallout 3 also, the background has lower quality images compared to the ps3 due to LACK of space. There's no way you can get around that. It would make more sense to include a sub $100 dollar blu ray rom in the console then a sub $100 dollar TB HDD (guessing at future costs). Even if people WERE able to download games over the internet, do you think that's really going to play nice w/ the bandwidth throttling of some ISPs such as Comcast? DVD9 will not be able to support next gen games...period. Unless you'e a big fan of disk swapping.
by BCF1968 December 9, 2008 3:06 PM PST
Yes XBL allows you to download movies for RENTALS not to keep. And my local video store is now renting blu-rays. So price is not an issue the cost is the same. Blu-ray is MUCH better quality than a "HD" digital download. In fact to call them "HD" is a joke and practically fraud.

Oh by the way I hope you don't have Comcast, At&t or Time Warner for internet because all of them either have caps or will soon have them. So good luck downloading all that media and not go over your 40 GB monthly cap.

By the way the $25 cost for blu-ray disc will come down. DVDs used to cost $25 and that was 10 years ago. In fact many discs sell for much less. In fact for example I just notice today at my local wal-mart they had Terminator 2 on blu-ray for $10. Within 2 years a brand new movie on blu-ray will be under $15.
by drmatt87 December 9, 2008 9:52 PM PST
Well Blu-Ray has a scratch proof coating (you'd pretty much have to try to scratch one), Its possible to more quad layer bluray discs offering over 200gb possibilities... Netflix streaming looks like crap even in HD... Oh and all your old "outdated" dvd's will up convert on a Bluray player... Sure streaming movies will get ther but what about the next few years... And the awesome sound quality from a bluray... Enjoy netflix... but to say its a bluray alternative... haha
by mitchell2percent December 10, 2008 2:04 AM PST
to say that xbl streams hd is a laugh. dvd is a great format, blu ray has potential to exceed in its popuarity, especially with capacity and hd.

also, "It just makes no sense to invest in brand new technology"
why did you buy an xbox then, and why did you buy those facy com-pu-ter machines if there's no point?
by compudoc318 December 10, 2008 7:55 AM PST
why wake up when you could get hit by a truck today clark??? the idea not to get blu ray cause they scratch sounds stupid to me.... i use netflix, quality cant come anywhere near my blu ray player, not to mention the internet usage cap some have and the limit to higher speeds. enjoy the bad picture!!!!
by compucrazy12 December 11, 2008 8:28 AM PST
@ simbadogg:

I believe you are the one that should "try writing about something that you actually no (sp) about"...
You said that "ABSOLUTELY DVD must go. It will not work in any console for the next generation." I'm going to shoot a big hole in your idiotic rant. Blu-ray is backwards compatible and anything that includes a blu-ray drive will still be usable with somebody's existing dvd movie library.

P.S. I personally felt that fallout 3 looked better on the 360 than the PS3. Playing on the same hdtv, i just felt the sharpness of objects was better optimized with the 360 version.
by hameiri December 11, 2008 9:28 AM PST
I can't imagine how you could claim that Blu-ray is an outdated technology. As far as I know, nothing comes close in picture quality. Those downloads you are so excited about are compressed so you can download it. The Blu-ray bandwidth is much higher, which means that you have much more information for the picture.

As compared to DVD. The picture is obviously better, and the capacity is much higher. This means that, not just for movie use, but for game use and data use, it is much better. I think another post mentions how many games are already running into space problems on DVD.

Blu-ray is not outdated! Its technology has yet to be fully exploited!
by smithj_33 December 9, 2008 9:03 AM PST
BR is not needed, but you talk about digital downloads and the masses that MS is now marketing towards still like physical media. As popular as iTunes and Rhapsody are, physical CDs still sell, though that is declining. But video is far behind music, so BR might not be a bad move, if nothing else, to sell more consoles. They would have to pay Sony, but I know a lot of people that have bought a PS3 because of BR. You can mostly get the same games on both, but you get an added bonus with the PS3 and they are almost the same price. At work I have friends who are diehard gamers and they don't even use the online services of either console. US internet speeds are still too expensive and too slow. Keep in mind the the majority, not just hardcore gamers. Mainstream physical media still has 10+ years....
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by arcticmaniac December 26, 2008 7:16 PM PST
Yes, most games are on both ps3 and xbox 360, but you definitely do not get the same online experience. If you talke with hard core on-line gamers, definitely the 360 is better. Sony dropped the ball on online.

Buying a $400 console to watch movie is a stupid move when you and I know that they will eventually come down in price. It really makes no sense to for Sony or Samsung or any company to sell a stand alone BR player for $400 when you can easily own a ps3 for that price. Therefore, if all you want to do is watch movies, the players are now less than $200. It makes no sense to pay twice that amount just for a PS3. I know people that own all 3 current gen consoles and the majority of the time its xbox live.
by Vegaman_Dan December 9, 2008 9:03 AM PST
With Blu-Ray players now selling at less than $200, the 'advantage' that the PS3 could play Blu-Ray discs has evaporated. There is no need to have it on a game console at this time. Especially with the shift to online streaming of content, the age of the DVD / local storage is slowly coming to a close.
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by pjhenry1216 December 9, 2008 9:58 AM PST
Online streaming and digital downloads are not going to be putting the nails in the coffin of DVD any time soon. There is way too many restrictions on digital downloads and online streaming that make it suffer compared to DVD. Much more of a restriction on when and where you can play, price points are barely reasonable ($2-3 more can get you the disc with all the special features), and a lot of places don't even allow you to re-download if lost. I'm surprised people even bother with the market because as a whole, its still pretty much inferior to DVD/Blu-Ray. The only digital downloads that aren't inferior are pretty much only pirated movies.
by sonymaster101 December 9, 2008 10:54 PM PST
Is there any reason not to have a DVD drive in the ps2 now that I can get a dvd player for $20? I didn't think so. all of you people that think that digital streaming is right around the corner, get a grip on your imagination. The worlds internet infrastructure doesn't have the capacity to stream the huge amounts of data fast enough to make digital game downloads a reasonable system on consoles, especially if everyone were using it. imagine the data use on the worlds internet structure doubling over the course of a year.

physical media will be here for 10+ years. When the CD was invented, you would have thought it would replace the floppy disc everywhere, but it has remained an almost universal system of storage for home users until just recently.
by BigGuns149 December 26, 2008 3:10 PM PST
When you said local storage is dying slowly you were right. Given enough time online streaming of content will become the norm, but most people aren't going to give up the quality, convenience and reliability that local storage provides in the near future. The vast majority of people simply don't the opportunity to have enough bandwidth to stream HD because to provider in their local area offers a tier of service with that much bandwidth yet. If some of the authors at CNET read their site they would realize that in many rural areas there are some people who can't even stream SD quality video without buffering nevermind HD streaming! Furthermore, even those who do have decent bandwidth can attest that there is quite a bit of downtime on most residential broadband providers. While in most cases the downtime isn't bad, there is FAR more downtime than the electric company.

For gaming consoles there is some argument to be made that larger capacity discs would give designers more options, but graphics quality has gotten to a point that it is good enough for most users. The Wii has the least powerful graphics capabilities of the current consoles, but it remains popular because for a lot of gamers the quality is good enough and a lot of users find the game selection better as well as the Wii having a relatively low price point at least compared to the PS3. A Blu-ray disc option could give game designers the ability to create larger more detailed worlds, but the console will still need compelling game titles.
by Orion Blastar December 9, 2008 9:07 AM PST
Forget BluRay go back to Cartridges, they are cheaper and don't get so scratched up like DVDs.
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by nopinktoday December 9, 2008 6:08 PM PST
What about magnets? What about menus and skiping scenes? Hope I didn't come off mean....
by timber2005 December 9, 2008 7:18 PM PST
@nopinktoday
Modern cartridges would probably be based on flash memory (for sake of capacity alone) and therefore unaffected by magnets.
Then games could potentially be updated.
by someguynamedbob December 12, 2008 5:47 AM PST
cartriges hold only a fraction of of cd data. CD holds only a fraction of DVD. DVD holds only a fraction of blu-ray.
by stringarray December 28, 2008 10:30 AM PST
Cartridges hold only a fraction of data as CD's? You are high. A cartridge is a media device housed in casing that is plugged into a port. "Nextgen" technology could use any number of flash cards in a cartridge. BR may be fine for movies for now, but it is dated technology for games and is why its not even an option for PC games. Compare a regular xbox to a hacked xbox running the same game off the internal harddrive. The harddrive blows away loading the game from DVD. And it will not be any different with BR. Microsoft knows this. The emerging technology that will decrease load times is solid state media. The only benefit BR could be for nextgen consoles is an installation source.
by aka_tripleB December 9, 2008 9:07 AM PST
I can't take it any more! Why must people use corny naming devices for things that aren't going to be used? Microsoft isn't just going to double 360 to get Xbox 720. Nintendo didn't call it's current system GameCube 2; and it's not going to call its next one Wii 2. The only company that is lame enough to used this time of naming convention is Sony. No one is going to argue that its next system is going to be PlayStation 4; there seems to be no creativity over at SEA. Why can't people just say Nintendo's 6th generation console or NES or 3rd generation Xbox? It's more precise, sounds more professional, and more chronological.
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by Vegaman_Dan December 9, 2008 9:57 AM PST
Because 'Nintendo's 6th generation console" doesn't look good on a T shirt.
by Hunnter2k3 December 9, 2008 10:14 AM PST
Oh go away cry baby.

They used it as a title for the next console since there is no current name for them.
by d--keller December 9, 2008 10:36 AM PST
Right, because if you say Microsoft's thrid generation machine, or Nintendo's sixth generation machine, everyone immediately knows what you're talking about. Seriously, what is wrong with you?
by Renegade Knight December 24, 2008 7:18 AM PST
You have to call it something. 720, 361, 360II. When MS names it we can all switch. Oh and 6th Gen is still a name meaning "the console after the current one".
by OLDDOMINION14 December 26, 2008 2:47 PM PST
@ aka_tripleB

By the way since you can't take it anymore sony has officially annouced it will no longer produced video game console systems because you cannot take the fact that each console has a different designation. It will actually now produce only home entertainment systems which incorporate games as well as music and video. If you don't believe me google it! So because everything is about you simpletons with your casual gaming and inabliity to count to the number four, Sony has had to comply to your idiotic demands, Thanks.
by arcticmaniac December 26, 2008 7:19 PM PST
Ah, yes, LORD OF THE RINGS 3 - Return of the Nerds...........................
by Thranx December 9, 2008 9:22 AM PST
Sorry, but the bulk of this article is just factually incorrect. Game makers love the space that blu-ray gives them. iD is already lamenting that they must somehow cram Rage into a DVD. They've stated that the quality on the XBox will be reduced because of it.

Rage is using the gen 5 id tech engine that uses what they are refering to as super texturing I believe. The quality is fantastic. (in demonstrations of course) but the space needed for the massive textures is causing problems on crunchnig it down to a DVD.

Look at little big planet. A seemingly "simple" game visually, but the quanity of rich textures ammounted to a PACKED blu-ray disc.

The next gen MS console has 3 options. No disc, proprietary disc (PR nightmare for MS, nintendo can pull it off... MS can't) or blu-ray. That's it... to pretend that DVDs can server the future of gaming is a joke, and frankly, poor reporting.
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by umbrae December 9, 2008 9:40 AM PST
They can always split the game into multiple DVDs. Games are mostly played from data cached on the HDD anyway, and even more so with NXE. iD is not a quality developer, so I am sure they are whining about fitting stuff on a DVD. Thing is compression is very good and not using compression on your textures is just a waste of resources.

Thing is that developers have already spoken out and said that issues with the Cell and BluRay makes the 360 the preferred system to develop on. Now, developers need to work on the PS3 version first to have any hope of versions to be released at the same time. Why? Because it is difficult to develop for the PS3 and porting to the 360 is very easy.
by KevLeviathan December 9, 2008 9:41 AM PST
You hit the nail on the head!

MS has the three options you stated above:

Downloadable content with a big hard drive (something similar to Steam on your Xbox)
Proprietary disc
Bluray

To stick with DVD would be a huge, huge mistake. Games are already being highly compressed to fit on a 8.5GB DVD. In a few years time it just won't be possible to fit a decent looking game on a single DVD. Developers need the capacity of Bluray - look at Metal Gear Solid 4.
by Hunnter2k3 December 9, 2008 10:23 AM PST
Yeah, and Little Big Planet was apparently listed as a PSN downloadable for a while, now look at it, entire disc.

If developers have the space, they will find a way to use it.

DVDs just won't cut it next generation.
People will bring up compression, but compression can only go so far before it becomes detrimental to speed, and speed is something you can't afford to lose in developing games.
Microsoft were sorely wrong in the past about memory, and they were again with 360 and DVDs, games are coming out on more than 1 disc now. (this will just become more common in the future)

Also, Umbrae, many of those developers have went back on what they said.
Yes, Cell is a little more complicated because SPEs have pretty much no branch prediction, but thats it really.
If developers are too lazy to learn how to code in parallel, they don't deserve to be in games development, in fact software development in general, because that is where it is going now, if people don't learn, they will be left behind.

Microsoft should face up to the fact that people won't like a Digital Distribution based console, and there has already been proof of such a failure before (remember the Phantom?)
They could go with their own disc, or Blu-ray, that is the only real choices they have in the matter, DD is a no-go, they will screw themselves over with it.
by kboateng December 10, 2008 7:48 AM PST
@umbrae It is easy to port on the 360 because DVD is the ubiquitous standard. That is why it is called nextGen...to leave the old behind. If developers cannot figure out how to adopt new technology then they should not bother making games or anything for that matter. The world is not a stagnant place and neither is technology. If that were the case there would not be a switch from analog to digital for TVs, especially when no one is complaining about their analog TVs. However, that switch is necessary no matter how much you do not want it.

Blu ray should win this debate by default, if not for its high capacity, then by its portability. You can take it from place to place and play it. DVDs in the future will be useless simply because the space is limited and blu ray's just a far superior format. Downloading content comes with bandwidth caps as well as it being stagnant on your hard drive. Microsoft really has no choice when you think about it.
by mynameiscoffey December 10, 2008 11:21 AM PST
"@umbrae It is easy to port on the 360 because DVD is the ubiquitous standard"

The storage device the final product goes on has nothing to do with the actual development. It wouldn't matter if they were distributing the product on DVD, BluRay, USB Drive or magnetic tape, the code would be identical for the system (sans the magnetic tape needing to be pushed to the HDD first due to speed :P)

And as far as having no choice they have plenty of choices. Honestly there would be nothing stopping them from just using HDDVDs for their game storage. Now that bluray players are down to 150usd there is no longer a reason to use a game console which consumes far more power to actually play movies on. The format used tor data storage is only relevant anymore to the actual games on the console. The GameCube used half size DVDs taht spun the wrong way, but since all GameCubes worked the same it didn't matter that it was a format noone used.
by jv78 December 18, 2008 9:26 AM PST
Frist off, Some of the best looking games are on cd or DVD. Blu-Ray will not hell in any way with the looks of any game. Little big, looks good but the game its self is not that big and the only reson why it looks goo is the fact that they foces on the little guys and a few backgrounds. If have a blu-ray drive in your computer you will find that little big is only 4 gig's and MGS4 is a total 60, that is all 3 Blu-Ray roms. The only way devs can use up a full Blu-Ray is to add levels. make games longer, but even then, dev's use the same texurs over and over in games.
by killachaos0 December 20, 2008 2:48 PM PST
@umbrae

"iD is not a quality developer"

How no one else picked up on this is beyond me. iD invented the FPS genre, and John Carmack is a god among developers.

The developers spoke out in 2006 but have changed their minds with the new devkits.

Also we are talking about 4-5 years in the future. Multiple DVDs over one Blu-ray disc? Which one will be cheaper?

Are you honestly telling me 7-8 DVDs will be cheaper than 1 Blu-ray disc?
Are you honestly telling me 7-8 CDs will be cheaper than 1 DVD disc?
by ikcizokm December 26, 2008 6:41 AM PST
@mynameiscoffey - "nothing stopping them from using HDDVD"

Except the fact that all the fabrication facilities that produce HD-DVD technology are no longer in existence, have had their technology sold off and have been re-tuned to manufacture other electronic products now. And that the HD-DVD product group will no longer license their defunct technology. And no one is making the physical HD-DVD media and/or improving it to hold more data. In the business world we call that a dead end. Microsoft won't necro HD-DVD when they have other, cheaper, readily-available alternatives. (Albeit less attractive, from their perspective.)

@all - Blu-ray is catching on, even in the US. People forget that it took CD's over 15 years to officially replace cassette tapes. It took DVD about 8 years to oust VHS, mostly because early DVD players cost $500 and movies cost $40. But within 3-5 years, the prices dropped to a comfortable level for J6P. Sound familiar? Now we're at a point, less than 3 years after Blu-ray emerged to the masses, that you can get a player for $150 and movies are $15-$20. Easily affordable to the middle class, which is the target market for anything in America. Within another year, players will be under $100, and you'll see $15 new BR releases @ Best Buy. It's the nature of the beast. Early adopters always pay more, so why bother comparing current DVD pricing to early adoption BD pricing? It's apples to oranges. It's like comparing a Porche to a Kia. ("Well, they both have an engine and 4 wheels -- why would anyone want to drive a Porche?" Please.)

As for Digital Downloads emerging as a viable replacement for physical media, this cannot happen anytime soon. Too many restrictions on technology, bandwidth, infrastructure, manufacturer/studio squabbles to overcome, the demonic entity that is DRM, etc. Will it happen eventually? Sure. But my educated guess is 7-10 years before it BEGINS to be a valid replacement method. (Oh, and to these people who think you can get a 1TB hard drive for $100, sure you can, but those are budget HDD's and are not designed to hold up to the rigors that a true multimedia system would require. For those drives, you're looking @ $250 easy.)

What people forget is that you can buy cheap DVD's, but people still rent. You can download games, but people still buy. Still others prefer to rent before blind-buying a new game or CD or movie. Bottom line: there is a market for EVERYTHING. The technological advancement of ONE form of media does not eliminate the progress of another. Even if DD becomes viable in 7-10 years, physical media will still exist for a long time to come. And right now, the King of the Ring for phys-med is Blu-ray. So love it or hate it, it's gonna be the dominant media for movies for the next decade.
by arcticmaniac December 26, 2008 7:27 PM PST
You've just contradicted yourself. What we are talking about are next gen consoles. These next gen consoles are going to be alot more powerful in terms of processing power, graphics, sound, etc. Therefore to make full use they are probably going to need even more storage than what Blu-ray can provide today. You may be right about current gen consoles where BR has an advantage in terms of storage capacity.

What is great about downloaded contents is that at least in theory, there is no physical limitation (except of course the hard drive capacity) to the size of the game. And its true that at current bandwidth, you would probably need to wait 24 hrs to download Halo 4 for the next gen xbox.

The only problem I see about downloads is that you would make the retailers very angry unless they got a bigger cut of the console business. Yes, its true about MP3 players and in particular ipods. Gaming is a multibillion dollar business that is greater than the movie business
by bathswana December 9, 2008 9:24 AM PST
There is a reason that XBox 720 is code named "Phoenix". Look up the myth of the Phoenix and your answer will be clear.
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by badmojo42 December 9, 2008 9:43 AM PST
Because of this quote from Wikipedia? -
"The bird was also said to regenerate when hurt or wounded by a foe, thus being almost immortal and invincible " Xbox is invincible...sweet! :)
by roachbrain December 10, 2008 8:16 AM PST
The story with the phoenix is a mythical bird of fire that when dead is reborn out of the ashes....or something like that.

Well my Xbox died 4 times, two times of which I received a refurbished system. I highly doubt you can call it immortal, none the less phoenix. It?s more like a nearsighted Cyclops.
by Fates Warning December 9, 2008 9:25 AM PST
I hate to say this, but I seriously doubt hi-def movies will be all that practical as a download with the bandwidth caps ISP's have been installing as of late. If hi-def movies take anywhere from 7 to 20 gig, you're kinda screwed within about 10 movies or so depending on your ISP. If you start coupling games into that mix, you're going to be stuck persuant to the bandwidth caps in place (unless of course you want to be suspended a month, ala Comcast or billed like with AT&T).
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by Shaun822 December 9, 2008 11:52 AM PST
ISP caps are going to be one of the reasons that physical media continues to thrive, especially HD media. Between games, movies, music, surfing the internet, sending pictures and video, and researching for school and work I would hit my ISP limit rather quickly. Also, as much as anyone says digital download is the wave of the future, for something like a console video game I still want my physical copy incase something happens to my Xbox or PS3. I had my hard drvie die twice and lost all my itunes to the tune of about 70 dollars each time because I didn't back up (yes my fault for not backing up) but you can't back up games because of DRM and the sheer size of the files.
by illegallydead December 9, 2008 2:58 PM PST
I agree. Digital downloads will only work in Europe, etc. The US digital infrastructure sucks, and will continue to suck for YEARS until we can upgrade everything, at which point it will already be 10-20 years out of date. [Example: VOIP. New and shiny here, they had it in eastern Europe (among other places) in the early 90's.]
Physical media will rule for things like video because it is such a bandwidth/space hog (and will only get bigger once we get above 1080p eventually). MS will have to bite the bullet. HD games that are as epic-ly long as a game should be simply cannot fit on to a DVD. You WILL make sacrifices fitting a d*mn decent game on 8.5GB vs. ~50GB.
by The 3rd Nipple December 9, 2008 9:28 AM PST
The funny thing is....everyone is focused on downloading. But they forget that these ISPs are throttling their networks so the resource hogs aren't getting the bandwith they need....nor taking it away from other subscribers. Not to mention that any ISP in America is seriously outdated compared to Europe. But instead of these ISPs investing in better technology and laying down more lines to bump up bandwith...they're limiting it instead and charging their customers more. Heck, look at Comcast...and they're the largest ISP in America next to AT&T (which I read recently is going to start charging people for extra bandwith use over an allotted amount).
So think about that before you get all hyped up on downloading movies, games, and other stuff that eats up a lot of bandwith. I think maybe it's time we need to get these ISPs to get on the ball first before we cast away BluRay.
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by umbrae December 9, 2008 9:43 AM PST
This will not be a continuing trend. Comcast is just trying to get in early to push away heavy users, but if they want to continue to have that lucrative thing called "CUSTOMERS" their policy will change when most users need that bandwidth. Comcast is just trying to protect an ancient network that they do not want to invest in.

Both Comcast and AT&T are dying because of their customer service, so they will probably be gone before the need for this kind of bandwidth is necessary.
by kooldudejim December 9, 2008 9:53 AM PST
The Xbox 720 is still years away. By then, I'd presume fiber optics without bandwidth limits (FiOS, U-Verse) would be dominant over cable/DSL technologies.
by pjhenry1216 December 9, 2008 10:01 AM PST
@umbrae: The problem is that without the infrastructure, microsoft would not release a console dependent upon it as very few customers would be able to buy the games. We're talking 2 years time here.
by DrtyDogg December 9, 2008 12:08 PM PST
The original XBOX live was dependent on high speed internet, when it wasn't terribly wide spread at the time.
by NPGMBR December 10, 2008 8:01 AM PST
Oh please, physical disks will decline in sales just as CDs have. Over time Comcast will be pressured to lower bandwith caps because they will be competing with Verizon FIOS. The future will be delivered over the internet. This won't happen immediately of course but it will happen. The footprint of FIOS is very small right now but its growing and the entertainment industry will be taking advantage of it.

If you believe ISPs will keep artifically low bandwith caps in place I think you are mistaken. Comcast, TW, Verizon, Cox and ATT all offer streamed movies and they want us to buy them. Whats holding a lot of people from buy from them now is price. Why stream a flick from Comcast for 5 bucks when you can just rent it from Netflix for much cheaper? But this will change as the caple operators and ISPs begin to compete more with Netflix, Blockbuster and others.
by dbargen December 9, 2008 9:34 AM PST
"Surely, the company won't want to show its hand too early..."

Let me just say,

ROTFLMAO!

This from the one of the biggest vaporware companies ever!
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by IsoMedic December 9, 2008 9:44 AM PST
I absolutely disagree with this article. Downloading every game is still years away and in the mean time you'll have to have an optical medium. I understand that downloading is the future, and for downloading small games, like XBLA or PSN that's very, very true. But downloading Metal Gear Solid 4? That's close to 50 gigs. Unless each console comes with a couple terabyte harddrive, and everybody using that console has a killer broadband connection, Blu-Ray will end up being a necessity. In the end, downloading all game is the future, it's just a ways off. With that being said:

Blu-Ray is absolutely necessary for that. The problem with having your game on multiple DVDs is that it's impossible for certain games. Certain types of games, especially open world games which are getting more and more common, require 100% of the games assets to be in one place. You could never have multiple DVDs for something like GTA4 or Fallout 3. Imagine having to change the disc every time you travelled to a different island. Using DVD would limit the size of the game, or the resolution of the textures used. Id's new game Rage had to be redesigned into smaller chunks because they couldn't fit the game onto a single DVD for the Xbox 360.

The problem is, we can't assume that everybody will have the internet connection required to download all of their games by the next generation, maybe the one after that, but not within the next one. That's too soon. The infrastructure just isn't there yet. Doing so would alienate a lot of gamers, especially casual ones. There are advantages to having a physical disc over having downloaded the game. Yes, they can get scratched or lost, but I've honestly never heard of that happening to any of my friends who are usually more careful with a $60 piece of plastic. No, the problem is with a download, you can't sell it, or let a friend borrow it, or take it some place without having to lug the entire system.

As of right now, and for the next few years, it's just not practical enough, and in the mean time, Blu-Ray will fill that void. It will have to, like I said, because lots of games can't deal with multiple discs. I'm not saying that it'll never give way to obscelecence, of course it will, it just won't be by the next generation.
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by Sleeplessone December 9, 2008 10:15 AM PST
Steam would like to disagree with you. I have purchased 1 game on physical medium since Steam came out and that was the expansion to World of Warcraft.

A 1TB hard drive now goes for around $100, it would be pretty trivial to have a very large hard drive as an option. Say perhaps ships with a 500GB drive (enough room for ~20 20GB games leaving room for downloaded addon content and save data) with the option of getting a TB drive (or larger by the time the next console starts shipping)

And you can easily have multiple DVDs for something like GTA4 or Fallout 3. It's called an install. Something PC users have been doing for years. Giving you the benefit of being able to use multiple cheaper media as well as giving you the advantage of faster access by using the hard drive instead of optical media.
by Hunnter2k3 December 9, 2008 10:36 AM PST
Yes, but Sleeplessone, you are forgetting one thing, most people like something tangible.

While i like Steam for simplicity, and i have a fairly decent connection, it is still boring waiting for it to download.
I could have went out and bought The Orange Box and be back before it finished.

Until things like that are minimized, DD is still a no-go for consoles.
Look at the price of the 360 HDD and you will see why that TB is still a long way away.

I would love to see a console with DD, but it just isn't practical right now, MAINLY due to the fact that not everyone has internet, a large chunk in fact, larger than any company would ever want to exclude from their next console.

Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo and anyone else would be foolish to have a DD-only console.
Phantom failed before it even came out, as would this.
by Sleeplessone December 9, 2008 11:02 AM PST
Steam does offer preloads for new releases. And the use of demo downloads converting to full versions thereby minimizing the download of redundant data will continue to get better.

Also people bring up open continuous worlds and needing all the data in one spot at once. This is only partially true. For example in GTA4 do you really need the data for the 3rd and 4th areas when you first start the game? No, and that data can be continued to be downloaded after the main engine and data for the first area is complete while you play.

I agree that not everyone has internet, or fast internet and it would be fairly easy to continue to sell games on physical media that would simply cache themselves to a hard drive. Part of the reason for the price of the 360 hard drive is the design requires the use of smaller laptop hard drives. There is no reason however that they could not design the next system around the idea of using desktop hard drives.

I don't think a direct download only console will be out in the next generation or two, however the lack of a direct download only does not mean Blu-Ray is required for the console to be successful.
by eborring December 9, 2008 11:14 AM PST
Also, we are talking about consoles. One of the selling points of consoles is you don't have to install the games, at least this is what Microsoft keeps saying by keeping a SKU without a harddrive on the market.

With all the whining and complaining about mandatory installs on the PS3 I doubt any one in the next generation of consoles would want, what is essentially, a PC with the Playstation or XBOX branding. I certainly don't.
by philosfool December 9, 2008 11:19 AM PST
I agree that some form of physical medium will be essential to the next generation of console. A massive portion of America still uses dial-up. These people are a long way from the sort of broadband connectivity that downloaded games need. And bandwidth caps are coming.

However, blu-ray is not essential to the next generation of xBox.

Microsoft was a big backer of HD-DVD. While that medium may be dead as platform for movies, there no reason that MS couldn't use HD-DVD format discs for the next generation console. Another possibility is flash memory chips. I don't know enough about flash memory technology to say what sort of costs and performance would be associated with that.
by Sleeplessone December 9, 2008 11:35 AM PST
@ eborring

The idea of not having to install on your console went out the door the second game developers were allowed to use the hard drive to issue patches to games.
by IsoMedic December 9, 2008 4:06 PM PST
If Microsoft wants to go the route of installing multiple DVDs into the hard drive on the Xbox 720 for any multiple disc game that would look pretty bad against the PS4's ability to just play the game. It would be the same as the mandatory install for a PS3 game versus the pop-in and play counterpart on the 360. Except it would be happening far more often. It's a technological inferiority Microsoft would probably try and avoid.

That said, I don't see that not happening, and it's a good point. But you have to remember that console gamers are different than PC gamers. Just because something is working on PC, doesn't mean it'll work on a console. And I don't know how likely it is for Sony or Microsoft to build in desktop-sized harddrives in a machine they're trying to run as quietly and coolly as possible. Besides, by the time they come out, it might well be as cheap to use 1 blu-ray than 4 DVDs. Like I said, having to install every game isn't going to go over well with console gamers, as evidenced by the backlash against PS3 installs.

The reason the Xbox 360 hard drive is so expensive isn't because of its laptop size. It's because of the intense manufacturing that goes on to make that hard drive. Not just the enclosures, but having things pre-loaded on the disk. It's the reason a $200 HDD for the 360 costs $80 on the PS3.

Obviously the next consoles aren't going to be DD, but I do think the one using DVD will be at quite a disadvantage to a blu-ray console. If not only because of the image this creates. It hardly speaks of cutting edge technology when you're using a disc medium over a decade old.

Issuing patches to games has nothing to do with installs anyway. Especially considering how many games don't install to the HDD, but get patched anyway. The two ideas can exist seperately.

I do think the idea of using HD-DVD is a fairly decent point. That's a distinct possibility, just like the Dreamcast and gamecube using their own versions of optical storage. That is something I hadn't thought of. It would just have to be cheap enough to make it worthwhile for Microsoft. I do think they would need to use something comparable to Blu-Ray in order to avoid the image of their system looking out of date.
by Renegade Knight December 31, 2008 11:48 AM PST
I have zero interest in downloaded content. Games, Media, or Other. I tolerate Amazon MP3 (which are rentals, you don't own them) because they are portable. I don't even like downloading patches on consoles. I'd rather get a disk that works like it should. When the game maker goes away (and they do come and go) so does your ability to patch your game.

What I own beats what I rent every time.

Anyone know if Steam lets you sell your game when you are done with it or is that just another rental service?
by kooldudejim December 9, 2008 9:56 AM PST
The space problem with DVDs could simply be solved by using a similar system to PC gaming - multiple DVDs to install onto the system's hard drive, and then requiring one disc in the system to play (like NXE).
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by killachaos0 December 20, 2008 2:51 PM PST
Im sure publishers will love manufacturing 7-8 DVDs.

Can you imagine the size of those boxes?
by Renegade Knight December 31, 2008 11:50 AM PST
The space problem with floppies was solved with CDs. CDs gave way to DVD, DVD to Blue Ray. If I tried I'm sure I could back up my BlueRay with enough floppies.
by mailbox001 December 9, 2008 9:57 AM PST
To overcome the problems of discs and ISP caps/limitations, is it possible for MS to have games sold on high capacity thumbdrives/memory cards, etc. Then the consumer just selects "Intall to harddrive" and play the game that way?
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by rapier1 December 9, 2008 10:14 AM PST
Actually, the idea I like the most is have 'loading' stations in stores. You buy or are given a high capacity USB drive. You can use it over and over again to load games. You don't need to have high speed connectivity to get it, and most importantly, it brings you into stores where retailers have the chance to cross sell you. They'll need to reformat the drive every time to get a new game but its really just a transport mechanism not a traditional thumb drive.
by Hunnter2k3 December 9, 2008 10:40 AM PST
Now see, this is actually a good idea.
But organizing such a thing would be hellish... not impossible though.

If Microsoft really don't want to go the route of DD, this is probably the only possible way they could do it without leaving out large chunks of the gaming community.
by dhjellen December 9, 2008 1:20 PM PST
I considered this myself, but then I realized than an empty 8bg USB drive costs $20-30 right now (average price - all I did was froogle 8gb usb, so please feel free to correct me). That is the cost of an empty HD by itself, not the cost of the software/game that would be placed on it. It seems to me that if using a USB drive as the media storage device of choice for gaming were a cost effective approach, then we would be seeing this being done for PC games - we are not.

Obviously, that $20-30 price is the retail price and not what MS would pay. If MS buys them in bulk, then the price will go down even further. Additionally, we would expect the price of today's 8gb hard drive, in any form, to drop by 50% in the next 2 years, but one still needs to consider if the added costs of such a pursuit would be justified when comparring to the cost of placing a game on a BR. Does anyone know how much a blank BR disc tends to cost?

Considering using a USB based sorage system opposed to BR would also have to include advanced calculations about how much each BR drive would cost microsoft and relating that to how many games they anticipate each gamer buying, warranty costs, the effect of giving money to Sony for their pieces of the BR technology on the gaming market, and numerous other things that I do not have the experience base to even think of.

Then the question comes up as to whether there would be any standard DVD drive on the next generation console at all or if all games and movies would be via a portable HD. Would I need to rebuy all my movies on this portable HD to watch them on the Xbox (just like one has to for the PSP)? It is true that the cost of adding a standard DVD player into any console is very small comparred to all the other technology involved, but it is still a consideration.

Personally, I like this idea. As a consumer, I think having several small gaming USB drives is preferential to having a stack of gaming disks from a storage perspective. I think that from the standpoint of shipping, small hard drives would be easier and cheaper for the market in general. I would like to see this shift be made, but it would be a new way to think about buying games and given that we have been using that nice looking spinning disk to play our games for so long, a shift like this might be a bit of a marketing leap for any company, even Microsoft, to make.
by jam91280 December 25, 2008 8:46 AM PST
err.... what if i wanted to buy 2 or 3 games at once?
by Renegade Knight December 31, 2008 11:51 AM PST
This is a physical media. You would "own" the media and be able to install it, or sell it when you were done. It could work.
by hyghwayman January 1, 2009 7:59 AM PST
Now you are going i n the right direction, I've read about this somewhere/sometime ago on the net.
Thumb drives-memory cards ships w/ console.
Sweet
by myles taylor December 9, 2008 10:30 AM PST
I definitely want to see them going towards digital content rather than physical. The main reason is that when my discs go bad, I don't want to have to go through hell and high water to get them replaced or fixed. I own a license; I shouldn't have to purchase it again.
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by eborring December 9, 2008 11:09 AM PST
So what happens when your hard drives crashes? You have to download everything again? What happens if they shut down their content servers? Do you think they are going to provide you some alternative route to download the games you purchased?

I have music cd's that are 10-15 years old now and they still work great in all my cd players. Yet, everything digital I owned from that time period is long gone. Also, under fair use you are legally allowed to make back up copies, as many as you like, of your discs. Don't blame me if both Sony and Microsoft exemplify anti-consumer behaviour by not allowing you to run back ups, I think the practice should be illegal, but I also think patents stifle competition not increase it.

The corporations want you to go digital because they can control their content much better, you can share it, they can lock down the console so you can't back it up, you can't resell it, which is a perfectly legitimate practice of physical mediums but as soon as it goes digital it is now copyright infringement.
by myles taylor December 9, 2008 9:02 PM PST
Digital content is easily backed up. I have multiple copies of all my digital content. As far as their content servers goes, I can't count on them leaving them up and I can make physical copies myself.

CD's spin very slowly compared to an XBox game. I've had problems with my discs cracking or getting rings on them when improperly handled by some people.

I agree that we should be allowed to back up our stuff and that downloadable content is usually full of DRM, but discs tie to me that disc and when my brother breaks it or someone scratches it, I'm screwed. I had to wait 8 weeks while Microsoft replaced my cracked Halo 3 disc and they charged me $20 for it, which was a rip-off. Anyway, neither system is perfect, but I prefer the downloadable one.
by eborring December 10, 2008 9:34 AM PST
I have never had a disc ruined by someone missing handling it, though I have very much disliked the way some people treat my discs, some have gotten them very dirty with fingerprints. I am probably lucky my discs haven't been ruined by someone else. Though i have had computers ruined by other people and lost a lot of data due to some peoples idiocy.

I have never tried making backups of the content I have downloaded off the PSN, but because of the proprietary nature of consoles it would be very easy for Microsoft or Sony to lock down their systems to not allow backups due to piracy. On a PC it is very easy to make backups, I keep two backups of all my data, but this is the same reason why piracy is much easier on the PC platform and why some people say that PC gaming is dieing. I don't think it is if you look at WoW and steam.

You are right no system is perfect, that's why I want to keep physical medium around because it compliments the digital distribution, in that if they content servers go down I cans till play my game. I don't know if they will let you play your back up.
by Renegade Knight December 31, 2008 11:51 AM PST
I've lost far more hard drives and data than ever the disks.
by thelemurking December 9, 2008 10:38 AM PST
Half the games I buy now for PC are either through Steam or EA Downloader or whatever the hell it's called now. I am sick to death of copy protected games that require me to keep a CD/DVD in the drive in order to play.

Why should consoles be any different. When hard drives are so incredibly cheap now, there's really no reason why the next gen consoles don't utilize net downloads of games as opposed to disc based games. I would imagine by the time the next gen X Box comes out, 1tb drives will be half what they are today plus the steep bulk discount when buying in such large volumes would make it all the more plausible.
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by Renegade Knight December 31, 2008 11:52 AM PST
Sure there is. I just sold 2 games for 80 bucks. I'll go buy another game with that 80 bucks. Can you even sell me your Steam game? Does Steam charge enough less to make the rental worth it?
by Alphaman63 December 9, 2008 11:04 AM PST
Damn, Don, you are such a schill. There you go on the "Microsoft downloads beats Blu-Ray" again. Are you hoping that if you repeat this enough someone besides an MS fanboy will believe you?

The question is, if downloads of 50GB games are good enough for those in the first world lucky enough to have massive pipes into their houses (or those without Comcast, which would limit them to only 5 games per month -- try and restore after an HDD failure with them!), then what are you going to do about the other 80% of Americans, or the other 95% of the world, that doesn't have unthrottled broadband access to their terabyte hard drives?

And what are those lucky few with big pipes going to do when they want to bring a game over to play on a friend's console? Bring their own console?

And how do you download a new game to your RV, sailboat, or SUV? And don't tell me that people don't use game consoles there.

Quit drinking the MS koolaid and start thinking rationally, please. This blog post is just nonsense. (I refuse to call this an article -- such would require journalistic integrity and rationality.)
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by gotrsx6 December 9, 2008 12:14 PM PST
No such thing as a 50 gig game. In fact, the most graphically demanding game made to date, Crysis, fits on 1 DVD. If you even begin to cite MGS4, don't waste the words. That disk was filled with UNCOMPRESSED AUDIO AND VIDEO, NOT GAME. the game portion of MGS was short as anything else these days. the "data" on that disk was all the cut scenes, and was completely unnecessary.
by eborring December 10, 2008 9:59 AM PST
I have played MGS4 and the game is mostly video. But to say the cut scenes are completely unnecessary is to miss the entire point of the game. When did the cut scenes become a separate entity from the game itself?

iD software has stated they are going to have to compress some of the textures in their upcoming game to fit on a DVD. This will not affect the xbox version very much because they are going to do it in areas that the player won't be spending a lot of time. Compressing textures reduces the quality, though compression techniques have improved along with the quality of the textures. But just like anything else that uses compression, it will never be as good as no compression at all. So if you want the best looking games you don't use compression. Also, the reason Crysis fits onto a DVD is because it is a PC game. How big is the install directory? How long did the install take? Is this what you want to see on consoles? As games get better looking and bigger in scope and breadth a DVD is not going to hack it anymore. Developers are already starting to push the edges of its capacity now.

Additionally, because most people expect each iteration of games to look better than the last, eventually there is going to be a breaking point for the capacity of DVDs.
by killachaos0 December 20, 2008 2:55 PM PST
@gotrsx6

No such thing?

Are you advancing... backwards?

Just imagine if people said there is no such thing as 50MB game. We would still be playing Dwarf Fortress.
by pwrdbykimchi December 24, 2008 6:51 AM PST
@gotrsx6

Wrong. Kojima Productions utilized extensive data compression but still required a dual-layer BR disc to hold all the content.

http://www.kjp.konami.jp/gs/hideoblog_e/2008/02/000150.html

You shouldn't waste your words.
by ckurowic December 27, 2008 2:12 PM PST
Yeah dude even the newest games fit on 1 DL DVD now....Higher quality does NOT mean it has to take more space. That is just the game devs being lazy.
by freemarket--2008 December 9, 2008 11:09 AM PST
Well they can always resurrect the HD-DVD format. LOL!
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by burtonjunky December 9, 2008 12:12 PM PST
I was going to say the same thing. And why not? HD-DVD drives could be manufactured on the cheap, can still play DVD, and hold adequate information. I think it'd be a brilliant plan.

They don't have to put out movies on HD-DVD, but having that be Microsoft's "proprietary" format doesn't seem like that bad of an idea to me.
by radico1 December 13, 2008 8:59 AM PST
Using hd-dvd will really be Microsofts only means to remain competitive with Sony, sans any superior, novel, cheaper format. They can't easily dominate this market as they did with IT, and there are many xbox fanboys out there. I personally think that the image quality is inferior to ps3, but its resounding allure is the fact that it is cheap to buy.
by Renegade Knight December 31, 2008 11:54 AM PST
This would solve the space problme with DVD games. However it would not let someone buy a consolea and BlueRay device rolled into one. That would push casual gamers towards the one console solution known as the PS3. With DVD you can go 360 or PS3 for a one console media center solution.
by closerproximity December 9, 2008 11:23 AM PST
Some "physical" disc or jump drive must be included in the future. ISP throttling. There is really nothing else to say. We shall see how the throttling will affect the Netflix user over XBOX Live.
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by cabrillo24 December 9, 2008 11:24 AM PST
I wish I could see into the future like everyone else on here. People taking statements of context to support their ideas is hilarious. There are pros and cons to having Blu Ray discs, as there are pros and cons to DVD and digital downloads. IF bluray does take off then MS will be in a position where they have to consider adding it, as they promote their system as a family entertainment device, not just a console device.
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by thelemurking December 10, 2008 6:33 AM PST
For BlueRay to take off, the price for both players and movies needs to come down, especially in a recession. Why would I spend $29 for The Dark Knight on BR when I can get the DVD for $13. Sure I will miss some of the bonus features and it won't be in 1080p... but at the same time I can pick up Horton Hears A Who on DVD as a Christmas gift for my niece and still be under the price of the Dark Knight on BR.

When BR hits the price where DVD is currently, then I will see it somewhat taking off, but until then, I think many people, especially in these economic times will opt for the DVD over the BR based on price.
by cleptomaniac December 11, 2008 9:46 AM PST
Why are people so dumb? I keep reading these comments and people keep saying things like, "Why would I spend $29 for The Dark Knight on BR when I can get the DVD for $13." Why in the world would you quote full retail against the sale price. I picked up the Dark Knight on Blu-ray for 20 and some change. At walmart they are selling the same on dvd for 15 before tax and shipping, in store it is a couple dollars more. Why walmart won't honor their online prices in the store is another rant for another stupid article. So he must have bought it online somewhere to get it at 13. And on top of that, what about the people who just walk in to Best buy and pick it up on release day? They paid 15 and I paid 20 for a blu-ray? So yes, DVD's can be a bargain if you go hunting, but so can Blu-ray, and after you find a good deal on a Blur-ray you are really only paying 5 buck more then normal price for it, and 7 more then what he paid for his bargain that he will have to wait a week for. I do feel bad for the people who are actually paying 30-35 dollars for blu-ray movies, they don't have a clue. Oh and i got it for 20 cause i price matched it at sears for the walmart price and the give you the difference plus 10 percent the difference. they always have them marked at like 35, Walmart was at like 22 so i got it for a little over 20. I ended up getting a little extra off too once i threw in my associate discount as well but for most people that isnt an option.
by killachaos0 December 20, 2008 2:59 PM PST
@thelemutking

The Dark Night sold 600,000 units on its first day in the BluRay format.
The Matrix sold 780,000 on its first week in the DVD format.

Also, newer tech has always been more expensive, just because you are to cheap to afford it doesn't mean no one will buy it.
by make_or_break December 24, 2008 9:03 PM PST
"The Dark Night sold 600,000 units on its first day in the BluRay format."

Yet the BD version was still only 1/5th of total sales. Better than the 1/10th piece of the pie that seems to be the typical average for DVD-BD percentages, but still well behind dorky old DVD.
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