Blu-ray players are becoming a hot item in the living room, but they have yet to attract much attention in the office, according to a new report from iSuppli.
The market research firm found that 3.6 percent of PCs shipped in 2009 will feature Blu-ray players. By 2013, the company expects 16.3 percent of PCs to sport a high-def drive. During that period, DVDs will still reign supreme.
"BDs won't be replacing DVDs as the primary optical drive in PC systems through at least the year 2013," Michael Yang, senior analyst for storage and mobile memory at iSuppli said in a statement. "They eventually will find success, but during the next five years, that success will be limited in the PC segment."
iSuppli believes that Blu-ray's lack of adoption in the PC market is centered on two main factors: a relatively small number of available movies and the cost of adding a Blu-ray drive to PCs. iSuppli said its findings suggest consumers will be more likely to add Blu-ray drives to their PCs once the cost of those drives decreases.
Although the results weren't ideal for the Blu-ray Disc Association, iSuppli said that they're not uncommon. According to the company, new media formats in PCs have enjoyed success only when the cost has decreased to a suitable level. That success also depends on whether or not consumers feel the technology's value proposition is high enough.
iSuppli cited the 3.5-inch floppy's 15-year lifespan as proof that consumers will use media as long as they perceive value. Currently, those same consumers believe there is more value derived from DVD drives.
... Read moreA report has surfaced in Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun that Toshiba, one of the top backers of the HD DVD format, will be releasing a Blu-ray player before the end of 2009.
Toshiba lost with this player; why should it release a Blu-ray player?
(Credit: Toshiba)It's a fascinating concept. the company that spent years trying to tell the world that Blu-ray is inferior is now looking to tell those same people that it really is worthwhile. Wow.
I understand that Blu-ray is becoming more popular. I know that it's slowly, but surely, gaining market share in the disc market. But it's not the only way to bring entertainment to the masses.
The vexed consumer
Tech companies have nothing unless the consumer base trusts them. Whether it's faulty products that break that trust or poor business practices, once it's broken, it could lead to financial ruin. That's precisely why I don't see why Toshiba would want to release a Blu-ray player.
During the war between HD DVD and Blu-ray, Toshiba did all it could to highlight issues with the competing format. It explained why its format was better. And it did everything it could to make Blu-ray look less desirable.
Even after the war was over, Toshiba didn't stop with the Blu-ray bashing. In an interview with TechRadar last year, Toshiba's deputy general manager of HD DVD, Olivier Van Wynendaele, said his company "wouldn't change anything that it did" with its HD DVD strategy.
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Online research firm Futuresource released a study Monday that discussed the relative success Blu-ray is enjoying right now in Western Europe.
According to the report, Blu-ray disc sales are up significantly in Europe so far this holiday season, and based on its findings, it believes the strong sales will continue through 2009. In fact, it believes European Blu-ray sales will triple during 2009, seeing 2.5 million players enter homes next year. Similar results are being witnessed in the U.S.
But that's not all. A release last week claimed the latest Batman film, The Dark Knight, witnessed sales of 1.7 million Blu-ray units, representing the most popular Blu-ray title of all-time.
Quite impressive, eh? Well, what if I told you that worldwide combined DVD and Blu-ray sales of The Dark Knight totaled 13.5 million units? Suddenly, that 1.7 million Blu-ray unit mark doesn't look so hot next to the 11.8 million DVDs that were sold, huh?
Of course, we shouldn't expect Blu-ray to catch up anytime soon. According to Futuresource in a study it released earlier this year, Blu-ray isn't expected to outsell DVD until 2012. And even then, Blu-ray will control just a bit more than 50 percent of media sales with DVD coming in around 45 percent to 50 percent. In other words, DVDs will still be a major force four years from now.
Based on all that information, can we honestly sit here and say that Blu-ray has a chance at becoming the success DVD is?
I just don't see it.
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In the past, I've always felt that Blu-ray would win the high-def format war. After that, I wasn't necessarily sure what the future would hold for the format.
Would it be the success DVD was? Would it flop worse than LaserDisc? Would it cater to a slightly more advanced crowd but never reach the mainstream? Would it be a downright loser?
For a while, I decided to hold off from making any judgements until I could see how the Blu-ray group handled its victory. And while it has only been a relatively short amount of time since that win, the end is already in sight and the format has no hope of survival.
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In a recent post on the News.com blog, David Carnoy opined on the future of Toshiba and its ill-fated decision to back a losing format for so long.
Pointing to a Wall Street Journal interview with Toshiba's CEO, Carnoy extrapolated information from the discussion and concluded that because the company's chief executive said his company would "improve this [upconverting feature] even more, so that consumers won't be able to tell the difference from HD DVD images", Toshiba has no designs on a move into the Blu-ray player market.
Carnoy asserts that 2008 will not bring a Blu-ray player from Toshiba, but it may "change its tune" in 2009.
And while Carnoy makes a good point in saying Toshiba Blu-ray players will be available next year, I think he's off by one year.
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When the format war was finally brought to a close, almost everyone was happy to see that we'll only need to watch one format try to survive in the Digital Age instead of two.
And while most of us were sad to see Toshiba throw in the towel and admit that it made a mistake with HD DVD, some were wondering how the house of cards crashed so swiftly. Some said it was due to the departure of some of HD DVD's retailers and rental services, some said it was poor internal operations and still others said it was due to the fact that movie studios simply had enough of the war.
But what if all of those assertions are false? What if all of those companies knew that an undercurrent continuously undermined the growth of HD DVD and helped Blu-ray cement itself as the winner?
What if Toshiba and Sony worked together to kill HD DVD?
... Read moreAs the high-def format war finally runs out of steam and Blu-ray has been named the winner, some are wondering what the future of the format will look like.
Will it be the unbridled success DVD was? Will it go the way of the Laser Disc and become more a bridge format than anything else? Or will it be long forgotten as just another attempt to force people into buying the same movies all over again as they wait in anxious anticipation of whatever comes next?
If you ask me, Blu-ray will never be the success DVD was and chances are, it'll be one of the forgotten formats that people scoffed at as they continued to download their favorite films online.
... Read moreDo you remember earlier this week when I told you that step one of ending the high-def format war relied on Sony's ability to get Warner on its side? Luckily for us, it happened (and yes, I'll take the credit for it).
Is this the most significant development of the entire high-def format war? Sure. But now that we know Warner is backing Sony, I can't imagine Toshiba is feeling good about itself. Not only did it cancel the big HD DVD party here at CES, but we have yet to hear any true official response. If you ask me, the company is in crisis mode right now and desperately trying to justify itself to Paramount.
And while all this is going on, I can't help but not care.
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How many times over the past few months have you heard that "the worst is over" and the chances of the high-def format war finally coming to a close were increasing by the day? If you haven't heard it at least once, you're probably not reading the right stories.
But with all that going on, the war is officially a quagmire for both sides and the chances of getting out of this quickly are diminishing at an astounding rate. Consider this: as it stands, the Blu-ray camp commands roughly 49 percent DVD market share, while HD DVD is trailing slightly behind. To make matters worse, some reports suggest HD DVD may be gaining strength, although most buyers are sitting out.
So what's really going on with this war? Is there an end in sight? Even better, is there a solution in sight that can finally put this to rest? If you ask me, I think this could be over in a month if the Blu-ray camp follows three steps.
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