(Credit:
eMarketer)
Online advertising may be dragging, but one analyst firm expects the market for video ads to grow 45 percent to $850 million in 2009.
An eMarketer study released Tuesday forecast more growth in years to come: $1.25 billion in 2010, $1.85 billion in 2011, $3.0 billion in 2012, and $4.6 billion in 2013. That's good news for sites such as YouTube that are trying to build an online ad market around video, though the size of the market is still dwarfed by other types of ads.
The company also had a relatively rosy forecast for search ad spending, which pays Google's bills and which provided much of the impetus for Microsoft's attempt to acquire Yahoo.
(Credit:
eMarketer)
"While search marketing is not recession-proof, it is recession-resistant, with spending growth in 2009 at 14.9 percent, to $12.3 billion," eMarketer said. "Because search is highly measurable, that will help retain many budgets and increase some others, as advertisers look for secure and effective marketing methods to combat the fear inherent in an economic meltdown."
eMarketer forecast search-ad spending would increase to $13.9 billion in 2010, $15.6 billion in 2011, $17.7 billion in 2012, and $19.5 billion in 2013.
(Credit:
eMarketer)
TV ads, meanwhile, will shrink from $69.8 billion in 2008 to $66.9 billion in 2009, then down to $67.2 billion in 2010.
The company also predicted a new revenue model in 2009 for social networks, sites that so far have struggled to make a big business out of advertising. "E-commerce will be a growing revenue stream for social network sites. Expect both MySpace and Facebook to enhance their self-serve advertising systems to allow consumers and businesses to buy and sell real-world goods and services," eMarketer said.
E-commerce overall is expected to grow 4.1 percent from $136.8 billion in 2008 to $142.4 billion in 2009. By 2012, it should reach $183.9 billion.
Analyst firm eMarketer has reduced its estimate for online ad spending in 2008 to $23.6 billion from its August estimate of $24.9 billion, with this year's online ad growth rate of 11.3 percent dropping to 8.9 percent in 2009.
Looking on the bright side, eMarketer said in a statement, "It is important to note that the lowered estimate still represents an increase of 11.3 percent over 2007 spending." And eMarketer expects spending to reach $25.7 billion in 2009, $28.5 billion in 2010, and ultimately $42 billion in 2013.
But the rough news still jumps out. Hardest hit is spending on display ads, the graphical variety that typically are used to promote brands, for which the growth rate estimate was cut from 16.9 percent to 3.9 percent. "Display is suffering because many of the vertical industries--such as auto and retail--that are key players for the format are slashing their ad budgets," eMarketer said.
The other major variety, textual ads placed next to search results, is expected to grow at 21.4 percent in 2008, its lowest level so far. Next year the search-ad growth rate should be at 14.9 percent, the company predicted, dropping to 10.4 percent in 2013.
The search-ad growth rate is still larger than the overall market, though.
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