Electronic paper is stacking up to be a high-growth market, according to a new report.
Sales of e-paper displays are projected to soar from $431 million this year to $9.6 billion in 2018, market researcher DisplaySearch said Wednesday.
The number of units sold is forecast to grow 22 million this year to 1.8 billion in 2018.
E-books are currently the main use and sales driver for e-paper. Most e-book readers, such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader, use the electrophoretic display technology from E Ink. A few e-readers, such as Fujitsu's Flepia, use a different technology called cholesteric LCD. Fujitsu's device offers a color display but is more expensive than the Kindle or Sony Reader.
"E-paper displays are taking off with consumers due to their low power consumption and ease of reading, especially in sunlight," said Jennifer Colegrove, director of display technologies at DisplaySearch. "In addition, e-paper displays are 'green' because they reduce paper consumption."
The number of e-book readers on the market has risen steadily, starting with one model in 2003, three in 2006, five in 2007, and around 20 this year, notes the report.
Despite the visual appeal of Fujitu's color Flepia e-book reader, DisplaySearch asserts that the high price and technical challenges of color e-books will limit their sales volume until 2011. The more popular electrophoretic display technology is likely to continue to lead the market and generate sales of $5.8 billion in 2018.
But other display technologies are poised for growth, the report said. Electrochromic displays, most commonly used in windows and other glass products, will target the market for smart labels and card displays. By 2013, electrochromic displays will be the leading technology for e-paper displays, DisplaySearch is forecasting.
Another competing technology called MEMS (micro-electro mechanical system) is expected to shift its market from cell phone displays to color and medium-sized e-books over the next few years.
The $299 PRS-600 has an improved touch screen.
(Credit: Sony)After enduring a couple of rumors and leaks that took the lid off its latest e-readers a little earlier than it would have liked, Sony's officially announced the two new models: the Reader Pocket Edition ($199) and Reader Touch Edition ($299), both of which will hit stores at the end of the month. The other big news is Sony is going to match Amazon's e-book pricing, making new releases and best seller titles $9.99 instead of $11.99.
As for specs, here's what you're looking at:
Reader Pocket Edition (PRS-300):
- 5-inch E-ink electronic paper display
- Comes in blue, rose, and silver
- Resolution: 800 x 600 pixels
- Gray scale: 8-levels gray scale
- 440MB of usable internal memory stores about 350 standard eBooks
- Three adjustable font sizes
- Sealed-in battery provides up to two weeks of reading on a single battery charge
- $199 MSRP
- Protective neoprene sleeve and USB cable included
- Files supported: Adobe PDF (with reflow capability), Microsoft Word, BBeB, EPUB
Reader Touch Edition (PRS-600):
- Touch-screen panel (navigate with your finger or the included stylus)
- Comes in red, black, and silver
- Resolution: 800 x 600 pixels
- Gray Scale: 8-levels gray scale
- Take handwritten notes with the stylus pen or type with the virtual keyboard
- Notes can be exported and printed out
- Onboard Oxford American English Dictionary allows you to look up a word by tapping on it (Amazon's Kindle has always had a built-in dictionary, but this is new to Sony Readers)
- Five adjustable font sizes
- 440MB of usable internal memory stores about 350 standard eBooks
- Sealed-in battery provides up to two weeks of reading on a single battery charge
- Expansion slots for both Memory Stick PRO Duo and SD cards
- $299 MSRP
- Protective case (similar to the PRS-700's) and USB cable included
- Files supported: Adobe PDF (with reflow capability), Microsoft Word, BBeB, EPUB
Sony has also updated its eBook Library software to version 3.0, and it's integrated into the device itself (similar to Flip Video camcorders) and includes support for both Windows PCs and "many" Macs. Owners of the PRS-505 and PRS-700 should take heart that in the near future Sony will provide a firmware upgrade to both those models that adds the new eBook Library software to your devices and makes them Mac compatible.
Because Sony has dumped more than 1 million free public domain books into its eBook store, it's no longer offering its 100 free classics bundle with the new devices. It's also worth mentioning that unlike the Kindle, Readers are compatible with the formats that local libraries are using for their digital collections.
If you wondering whether the touch screen on this model is any better than the PRS-700's, the answer according to Sony reps I spoke with, is yes. Apparently, the PRS-700's built-in sidelight added an extra "light" layer or gap that made the screen less responsive, hurt the contrast ratio (made the screen dimmer), and created some glare issues. Sony has eliminated that layer and the overall touch experience has allegedly improved and the letters on the screen are darker. Also, as a result of eliminating the sidelighting, the PRS-600 is slightly slimmer than the PRS-700 and two ounces lighter.
Sony says there will be no wireless option for these models; they are "tethered devices." But in speaking with reps, they did say that Sony was committed to bringing out a wireless device and while they didn't mention an exact time frame, it appeared to be soon, perhaps within weeks. So, if you're waiting for a wireless Reader, whatever form it takes (built-in Wi-Fi or cellular), you should probably hold out a bit longer.
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Companies are likely to challenge the Amazon Kindle by unveiling cheaper, more versatile e-readers, moving beyond books, and striking better deals with publishers, according to a report released Monday by Forrester Research.
"Amazon.com, leveraging its position as a dominant book retailer, has catalyzed the market for eBooks, but that's just the beginning of the eReader revolution," writes Forrester media and technology analyst Sarah Rotman Epps in the report. "Competitors will attack Amazon's market position by launching new features, expanding content beyond books, dominating markets outside the U.S., reducing costs, and improving relationships with publishers."
The eReader market has been hot, notes the report, thanks to consumers who are hungry for portable and convenient media devices. Around 14.9 million U.S. households regularly buy books online. Among that group, 48 percent earn more than $70,000 a year and spend $28 a month on books, half of them online.
Though Amazon's Kindle and Sony's Reader have carved out the biggest chunk of the market--Forrester estimates sales for the two units hit the million-dollar mark for 2008--other companies have entered the fray. Fujitsu has released a color e-reader in Japan, while Samsung plans to unveil a touchscreen e-reader in South Korea this year. In Europe, Irex Technologies makes a versatile line of e-readers with touchscreens and Wi-Fi.
The Kindle's limitations also pave the way for newcomers, says Forrester. The Kindle is geared toward reading books, but other content can work on an e-reader, including textbooks, newspapers, magazines, comics, and even blogs. Much of that will fuel the need for larger screens, color displays, and the ability to highlight text and write notes. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has warned not to expect a color Kindle for many years.
Besides color and bigger screens, the competition will try to distinguish itself from the Kindle by offering touchscreens, animation, and eventually video. Forrester expects color displays to be available by the end of 2010, with video following in 2011 or 2012. The Kindle's lack of social networking also is a weakness, says the report, since people who buy books often like to discuss them with others and offer their reviews and recommendations.
There are other areas where the Kindle faces competition, notes Forrester. Amazon's price tags--$359 for the Kindle 2 and $489 for the Kindle DX--are beyond the budgets of many consumers. Even Sony's e-readers start at $299. With a decent Netbook selling for $300, the report says, e-reader prices will need to come down.
The Kindle is a sales hit in U.S. but lags throughout the rest of the world. Sony and other companies, such as Fujitsu and Irex Technologies, are better positioned to gain from higher worldwide demand for e-readers.
Publishers also have a love/hate relationship with Amazon, says Forrester. They love the Kindle as another profitable way to package their content. But they don't like the way Amazon hoards 70 percent of the profits, leaving publishers with only a 30 percent cut. The report expects other e-reader vendors to slice out better deals with publishers.
Overall, the next five years should see even stronger demand for electronic reading devices, says Forrester, with a large portion of that driven by students once textbooks are more prevalent on the portable format. Global demand, which now adds up to one-third of all e-reader sales, is likely to surge as well.
Research company In-Stat also predicts a soaring e-reader market ahead. As more e-readers are produced, their raw manufacturing costs will drop by 23 percent between 2009 and 2013, according to a new In-Stat report. Technology also will improve, the research firm says: today's e-readers use display technology from E Ink, but the future may see OLED screens to deliver higher-quality readers.
This is the second part to my early analysis of the new Kindle DX large-format e-book reader. In the first post ("Early analysis of Amazon's Kindle DX: Overview") I discussed the physical and software features of the new device. In the third post, "Early analysis of Amazon's Kindle DX: E-textbooks", I'll talk about how the DX will fit into the educational market.
The new Kindle DX is larger than the Kindle 2 with more than twice the screen resolution.
(Credit: Amazon.com)But here, let's talk about the DX's suitability for reading electronic newspapers.
Newspapers are about text, and there's only a moderate need for interactivity. For each story, the reader views the headline and perhaps skims the opening paragraph, and if it doesn't look interesting, moves on to the next story.
Even with these relatively undemanding requirements, the Kindle DX isn't as good for reading newspapers as a real newspaper. We're all used to the ability to glance over a full newspaper page worth of articles at once. You can't do that with the Kindle.
This issue boils down to the amount of time we spend reading articles vs. the amount of time we spend glancing at headlines and turning pages. Call that the "reading ratio." A real newspaper offers a very high reading ratio even if we're not reading much of the paper, because it takes so little time to flip through the pages looking for articles to read.
On the Kindle DX, the ratio will depend very heavily on how much of the paper we're reading. For those who just read through the whole paper, the ratio can be fairly high, probably 90 percent or better. It'll still be lower than a real newspaper because it takes a certain amount of time to turn the virtual pages of the Kindle, and page turning is much more frequent.
(Demonstration videos seem to show that page turning takes about the same amount of time on the DX as on the earlier Kindles.)
For those who read only a fraction of the stories in the day's paper, the reading ratio of the Kindle DX will be much worse than a real newspaper because the experience will be dominated by page turning. Since most of us can't simply increase the amount of time we spend reading the paper each day, I'm afraid that the Kindle approach to e-news will actually reduce the amount of news we read.
It's also worth comparing the Kindle e-news experience with that of the iPhone and a laptop. These devices have active displays with fast update rates, greatly reducing the page-turning delays. I use The New York Times application on my iPhone pretty regularly (once or twice a week, at least), and it's really quite easy to flick through the day's top stories, which appear on the iPhone with the headline, a thumbnail photo, and usually about half of the lede.
On the other hand, the delay to read the story itself is quite long, since the Times' iPhone software is not designed to pre-load the stories, as the Kindle does. The iPhone takes about 10 seconds to bring up a story once selected, but once it's in, there are no further delays. The rest of the story scrolls past as fast as I want to flick through it.
At home, on my laptop, The New York Times Web site is even faster. It's easy to skim the titles and ledes of about a dozen stories on the main page for each "section," and loading a story takes no more than a second or two. Once loaded, again, there are no further delays.
The Kindle DX simply can't deliver that kind of e-news experience because the screen technology is inherently too slow to support scrolling or fast page-turning.
In fact, it looks like the Kindle DX isn't even taking full advantage of its own capabilities. The newspaper interface is very basic: one wide column of text, not the multiple narrow columns that help us skim through real newspapers. I wonder why?
But again, I think the DX will do an adequate job for people who like to read most of the day's news stories. How much of the market that is, I can't guess, but I suspect it's a higher fraction among older, wealthier customers.
(Now, continue on to "Early analysis of Amazon's Kindle DX: E-textbooks", or return to "Early analysis of Amazon's Kindle DX: Overview".)
Sony's e-book reader is about to get a little help from Jane Austen in its battle with the Kindle.
Sony announced a partnership with Google Wednesday night that will bring a half-million classic books to the Sony Reader Digital Book. Users will now be able to access the free book downloads through Sony's eBook Store.
For years, Google has scanned books and converted them to digital format--at least in part--for its Google Book Search project. For now, Google is providing books to Sony whose copyrights have expired, which means most of the new additions to the Sony Reader will have been published before 1923, according to The New York Times.
Sony says the library will include well-read classics such as "The Awakening," "A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court," and "Sense and Sensibility" as well as less common titles such as the "Letters of Jane Austen" and books in French, German, Italian, Spanish, and other languages.
The deal brings the Sony Reader's library up to 600,000 titles (Amazon's Kindle library is currently at about 250,000). Financial details of the agreement were not disclosed.
In the story of e-book readers, we're still in the first chapter.
On Monday morning Amazon unveiled its widely anticipated Kindle 2 device at a high-profile event in New York City. The updated, thinner e-book reader included some obvious cosmetic changes from its original Kindle as well as other more evolutionary tweaks. On the same day in the same city, another e-book reader maker, Plastic Logic, looked to stake out territory as the mobile device to read newspapers. Plastic Logic doesn't have a device on the market yet--not until next year--but already it's cementing relationships with newspapers and short-form content aggregators.
Amazon's new Kindle still pricey at $359.
(Credit: David Carnoy/CBS Interactive)At long last there is finally widespread attention cast on a market that's been slowly gaining some momentum. But though the market is expanding, it's still not reached a mainstream audience, and it's going to be longer still until it gets there.
Sales continue to grow (some analysts have pegged Kindle sales at 500,000 units), but e-book readers are still not anywhere near iPod-level penetration of the consumer market. Price is a big part of it.
"The devices are still relatively expensive and appeal to a small group of affluent, avid readers, and the content available to this point has mostly been in line with that target customer," said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis for the NPD Group.
At $359 for the Kindle, that's a luxury device anyway you look at it. Like most consumer electronic devices, getting below $200 is key to capturing a more mainstream audience. Sony is almost there at $269, but it doesn't have any way of downloading book content wirelessly the way the Kindle does.
But there's a free option now too. Last week Google launched a mobile version of its Google Book Search, giving iPhone and Android users access to more than 1.5 million public domain books. The works of authors such as William Shakespeare, Jane Austen, and Charles Dickens were optimized to be read on the small screen.
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And while that was immediately read as a threat to Amazon's e-book store content, it's actually an entirely different proposition. Reading long-form content on a small screen will not appeal to a lot of people, even if it is free, and from the canon of Western literature.
The screens on mobile phones are not optimized for reading text the way e-ink devices like the Kindle, Sony Reader, and Plastic Logic's will be. IDC analyst Richard Shim says books available for free on those devices will appeal for reference, not for settling in for a long read with a cup of coffee, or on an airplane.
"What it does do is it expands the audience," said Shim. "But how much of an audience you can capture is unclear on a less-than-ideal reading device."
Amazon is also looking to make e-books more ubiquitous on other devices besides the Kindle. The company has said it will eventually make its e-books available on cell phones. But again, that's a different model than reading novels or newspapers on e-ink devices. So despite not requiring consumers to pay for a separate device like a Kindle, it's not likely to hurt e-book reader sales for those who plan to read long-form content.
Plastic Logic's plan is still unclear at this point in regard to price. The Silicon Valley company working up a reader device optimized for newspapers: a larger screen, with color displays, and wireless access to newspaper content that's constantly updated. But the looming question is the price. We do know it is aimed more at mobile professionals (it's optimized for document reading too), which signals that this could be on the pricier side. Plastic Logic will only say it plans to be competitive.
But the fact that Plastic Logic is honing in on the newspaper business could provide for some interesting possibilities in regard to business models.
"With newspapers, that's a business model that's broken. They're trying to maintain the audience for that content," said Shim of IDC. "With this technology, (e-readers are) looked at as a potential lifesaver for that industry."
Plastic Logic's e-ink newspaper reader could use publisher subsidies to bring down the price.
(Credit: Plastic Logic Limited)In which case, publishers may want to subsidize the devices for people to keep reading the content, an idea The New York Times recently floated. That would be a great deal for consumers and certainly expand the audience if the price was reasonable.
But while customers certainly like the idea of free or almost free, the value for the content providers is still up in the air, as Shim points out.
"How do you make your money back? They have to get advertisers to buy into the concept," he said. "Plastic Logic has to understand the newspaper business and that there are a lot of question marks around it."
Plastic Logic won't come to market for at least another year, so there's still time to figure out the model. In the meantime, the golden ticket for e-books to officially enter the mainstream is the textbook market, which also appears a long way off.
Getting textbook publishers to embrace them would have the potential, said Rubin, to turn e-book readers from "something that appeals to affluent avid readers to something that could conceivably be used in every household that has a student."
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