If the Apple tablet emerges as expected, this will be another big device market, following media players and smartphones, that the PC industry cedes to Apple.
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Tablet: Is this the best WinTel-HP can do?
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)The writing is already on the wall already for Microsoft and smartphones, as spelled out in a previous post and as documented in shrinking market share numbers.
That's not to say that Microsoft, Compaq (later Hewlett-Packard), and Intel didn't have a chance. Remember the Compaq iPAQ PDA that debuted way back in 2000, powered by an Intel StrongARM chip running an early version of Windows Mobile?
That device had a lot of potential. The operative word being "potential." An iPAQ could have been an iPhone. Or at the very least an iPod. And everybody could be drooling over iPAQs today instead of iPhones. Or using iPAQs instead of BlackBerrys. But of course things didn't turn out that way.
Fast forward to 2010 (January?). Apple announces a tablet and suddenly everyone wants a tablet. (Or iSlate, if you will.)
Whatever happened to this Intel-powered Asus MID?
(Credit: Asus)And what have Microsoft, Intel, HP, and others been offering in the interim years when they had every opportunity to come out with a blockbuster tablet? Unattractive, bulky, half-baked convertible laptops that, let's put it this way, have not taken the PC market by storm.
So, here's the $64,000 question, uh, make that the $64 billion question. Why can't the combined R&D smarts, market clout, and overall technological resources of Microsoft-Intel-HP-Dell come up with a thin, sexy compelling tablet and/or media pad that will turn heads and convince the unbelievers (the average why-would-I-need-something-like-that consumer) that a tablet is a must-have product?
Answer: Because Apple will.
Here's a not unlikely scenario. Apple brings out the tablet/media pad, wows U.S. (and world?) consumers, sells a ton of units, Microsoft-Intel-HP-Dell follow suit with slavishly copied devices that don't sell very well comparatively.
iPAQ PDAs: Missed opportunity?
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)That's how the market for successful newfangled devices works these days. Apple creates the market and everyone else follows in a panic.
Then there's the Intel factor. Intel also wants to be a player in this space. But Intel and its coterie of PC makers can't get off the traditional-design laptop gravy train. Plus, as formidable a chipmaker as Intel is, it is still behind the Qualcomms and Texas Instruments of the world in building the power-efficient system-on-a-chip silicon that goes into smartphones and will likely go into tablets.
So, here's my question for Intel et al: How many people will be buying Netbooks or Intel-based MIDs (mobile Internet devices) in 2011 if Apple has a more compelling alternative? Answer: a lot less if the Apple tablet exists.
OLPC tablet concept: Can't a PC maker do this?
(Credit: OLPC)And add Asia-based device makers offering tablets using an Nvidia Tegra 2 chip to that. A number of these tablets are expected too in 2010. In fact, Nvidia is already doing what Intel should have finished doing a long time ago: make a competitive system-on-a-chip that powers small devices. Intel had the chance to make XScale (what StrongARM eventually became) into something big for small devices six years ago. But it didn't. And now Intel is trying to reinvent the wheel by squeezing the upcoming "Moorestown" Atom chip into smartphones.
Intel, I'm sure you think Moorestown is a great idea, but it's a little late. Apple beat you to it by about three years.
It's too tempting not to pose that question as the monthly Apple tablet rumors fly.
The Apple 'media pad' could look like this--just bigger with ad copy that says '4x faster.'
Conjecture about future Apple products is always an interesting exercise because it requires a lot of imagination to make up for the copious lack of hard data. This is especially the case for the rumored Apple tablet, despite analyst claims about product specifications, such as the oft-repeated 10.1-inch screen.
But there is one theme that keeps popping up that is highly plausible: it will be a device to view media and book content (rumor: 30/70 revenue split between Apple/publisher) in a "better" way. Hmm...let me think for a minute: the same way many people now use their iPhone? (Certainly, the media part.) So--though not a phone per se--basically an iPhone (or iPod) with a bigger screen, faster graphics, and better interface (and/or subscription model) to view content.
Does that about cover it? That doesn't sound like a tablet to me, with all the negative connotations that the word "tablet" has in the PC industry: fat, heavy, kludgey, boring.
Which is why "media pad" sounds a lot better. That, to me at least, connotes thin, light, modern, exciting. But I'll leave the branding to Apple. So far, they have a pretty good track record.
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As the CEO of Adobe Systems, Bruce Chizen was credited with turning that company into a software powerhouse. Now Chizen will bring his experience to a new role as a venture partner for Voyager Capital, a top venture capital firm.
Voyager Capital invests mostly in start-ups involved with early-stage digital media, software and servers, wireless, and Web infrastructure. Previously a member of Voyager's advisory board, Chizen will expand his role by working with budding technology entrepreneurs in the areas of digital media and software.
"Bruce possesses a rare combination of valuable market insight and senior business experience," said Bill McAleer, managing director at Voyager Capital. "His strong industry reputation, connections, and background in digital media and software will benefit our ventures."
Chizen made his mark in the industry as CEO of Adobe. After six years with the company, he took over the CEO reins from co-founder John Warnock in late 2000.
During his tenure, Chizen was the driving force behind Adobe's expansion into new markets. He oversaw the growth of the company's customer base beyond the graphic arts niche into the enterprise and general consumer arenas. He helped transform Adobe from a software vendor into a platform company, branching out onto the Web and open source, among other areas.
With Chizen at the helm, Adobe made some key deals, notably the acquisition of Macromedia in 2005.
After having tripled Adobe's revenues as CEO, Chizen exited the company in late 2007, placing it in the hands of then president and now CEO Shantanu Narayen. In an interview with CNET News, Chizen spoke about his decision to leave Adobe at the time.
Prior to his role at Adobe, Chizen served in several executive positions at Claris. He also worked in the merchandising group at Mattel Electronics and as a regional sales director at Microsoft.
Intel's mainstay Netbook chip is finding a home in desktops, underscored by recent announcements from Hewlett-Packard and Acer.
HP MediaSmart LX195 uses a 1.6GHz Atom processor
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)On Wednesday, details emerged of HP's MediaSmart Server LX195, a home server packing a 1.6GHz Atom 230 processor that's priced at $400 with 1GB of memory and a 640GB hard disk drive. To date, HP has been using Intel Celeron and Advanced Micro Devices' Sempron processors. (Note: update adds Intel Celeron.)
Earlier this month, Acer rolled out the Acer AspireRevo, a small, slick box that augments the Atom with an Nvidia Ion chipset to boost graphics performance. This is expected to be priced well under $300 for some models.
Asus was one of the first to bring out a head-swiveling Atom-based desktop--the Eee Box, which has been updated recently with ATI graphics.
By design, Atom is a more power-frugal and, as a result, a slower processor than Intel's mainstream Core 2 chip architecture. HP, for example, markets its MediaSmart server as a storage hub, which typically doesn't require much processing punch. And Atom is cheap--the Atom 230 is $29, whereas comparative Celeron chips are about $34 but draw much more power. And mainstream Core 2 Duo desktop processors start at about $110.
Intel has long maintained that Atom has a place in so-called Nettops and, last year, brought out the dual-core Atom 330 specifically for this market.
This strategy was validated this week in Taipei, where motherboard maker ASRock was showing a desktop with a dual-core Atom 330 processor and an Nvidia Ion chipset. Asus is also expected to update the Eee Box line with a dual-core Atom processor.
Pouring water from a pitcher into a glass is not just about transferring liquid from one container to another--at least not to Phil McKinney.
Phil McKinney
(Credit: HP)To the chief technology officer of Hewlett-Packard's personal systems group, it represents the challenge of doing the same with data. McKinney oversees research into the concept of "liquid media," in which data can be easily and effectively moved between different types of devices--in a way that is intelligent enough to tap the capabilities of each platform.
Known in HP as "the gadget guy," McKinney spoke with ZNet Asia on the sidelines of an HP media event on workstation technology. He discussed innovations for personal devices and why it "makes no sense" for HP to develop its own operating system.
Q: What area of your research focus is most challenging?
McKinney: The most challenging really would fall into the mobility and the economics--they are somewhat dependent on each other. If I can deliver a very compelling device that you can always carry with you and (that) gives you the most powerful PC experience--you're always connected and it's fairly simple to use--then I've hit the grand slam home run. But there are certain trade-offs you make--screen size, keyboard, input method, battery life, and connectivity.
Devices today are always some kind of a compromised device--never...perfect. I want a big screen, but it weighs too much. I want 50 hours of battery life, but I can't pick up the battery. Ultimately, it's how do you build a device that requires the user not to have to make any compromise.
Do you believe that will become a reality one day?
McKinney: The way we think about devices is...a chart, where the horizontal axis is what we call reach or mobility--size, shape, and battery life of a device. The vertical axis is richness--how rich an experience can you get, (factors such as) screen, color, video, and audio. On the upper-left corner (of the chart), you have the 50-inch LCD TV sets. On the (other extreme), you put a basic mobile phone. Now draw a line going from the TV down to the mobile phone, and there's a tradeoff between richness and reach. I'm giving up a little bit of richness (by changing) to a desktop...Then you move to the laptop and the (mini-notebook) and the smartphones. You're giving up richness for reach, and that's always a trade-off.
The ultimate objective is you want to get to the upper-right corner--ultimate reach, ultimate richness. There's got to be some fundamental breakthroughs to really make that happen. How do you get screens that can unfold, so I start out with a 3-inch screen but I can fold that out to a 30-inch so I can lay on a tabletop--those kinds of things.
Do you see current innovation for laptops as being skewed toward Netbooks?
McKinney: When we think about the mini-note or Netbook, depending on what term you want to use, we truly see it as a companion product. So it's not a situation where the mini-note is a replacement for an existing category. Prior to the mini-note's existence, people have a laptop and there's always this trade-off...(You want) higher performance and the ability to be mobile, but it's too heavy. And you couldn't afford to buy two notebooks to get you both options. But with the mini coming in, I can choose two different products solving two very different needs.
We think of the mini-note as really a step up from the smartphone--it's really that device that allows you to do things you can't do on your smartphone. For instance, I get e-mail on my phone, and certain e-mail (messages) that I read, I go "Hmm, that's going to be a long reply." So I'm going to wait till I get back to my PC to reply. Now with the mini-note, since it's small and light enough I carry with me most of the time, I can now simply crank up a reply.
There's a logical gap between the form factors, what we call "tweener" products--(such as) between a smartphone and between a laptop. There's an opportunity for lots of form factors and capabilities. These are the devices that are very user-specific--what's the function they are going to use (for or) what's their job. Are they simply (looking for) something that gives them a great browsing experience versus somebody that needs to run a number of applications.
There's a gap when you think about that dichotomy or range of form factors. The mini-notes or Netbooks are trying to be the first (to fill that gap) in their category. But we would anticipate there's going to be a whole variety of other kinds of form factors that are filling that space.
What are the chances of HP developing its own Netbook OS? There was a recent report about the company putting a customized Ubuntu version for the HP Mini 1000 Mi edition.
McKinney: (Laughs) I lost count of how many times I got asked that question.
When you think about...the amount of R&D, take for instance, Microsoft has put in over the life of the Windows operating system, there aren't many companies that can come out and fund that kind of an R&D level necessary. For HP, it's not about controlling all the pieces. It's about enabling the ecosystem...to drive innovation that matter to our customers.
In this case, we've got a phenomenal track record of working very well with (partners like) Microsoft. We delivered touch technology in the form of a TouchSmart product two years ago, and then worked with Microsoft on touch enablement for Windows 7...on the development of the capabilities and validating them. If Microsoft funds that R&D and puts those capabilities onto the base operating system, that's great, because now I'm going to refocus my touch R&D onto that user experience that sits on top of the operating system.
So, no, there's no interest in us creating our own operating system.
Nothing is compelling enough?
McKinney: Never say never, but let's put it this way. There's no interest today in developing our own operating system--it makes no sense given the amount of R&D.
Vivian Yeo of ZDNet Asia reported from Los Angeles.
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Akamai Technologies announced Wednesday that it's cutting 7 percent of its workforce, as the Web content delivery company pares back its costs.
Cambridge, Mass.-based Akamai expects to cut 110 positions in the fourth quarter, a move that is anticipated to result in a $4 million restructuring charge.
"We have not changed our business outlook," J.D. Sherman, Akamai CEO, said in a statement. "However, we want to ensure that we can keep investing for growth even in the current economic climate."
The Web content delivery company also expects to lose approximately $2.5 million in income from subleasing some of its facilities.
In a bad day for publicly traded tech companies, Google's stock shares closed at $291 on Wednesday, marking the first time since 2005 that the Mountain View, Calif., dot-com's stock price has slipped below the $300 mark. The $291 is a 6.57 percent drop for the stock.
A parade of negative reports and estimates about ad spending in 2009 have led Wall Street analysts to cut their earnings estimates for Google, which can credit its explosive market valuation to its pioneering search-advertising technology.
Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney characterized expectations for the fourth quarter of 2008 as "the weakest they have ever experienced," trimming his estimates for Google's earnings by 3 percent.
Also weighing on Google is the report that cell phone giant Verizon may be close to ditching Google as its default mobile-search provider in favor of Microsoft.
It was just more than a year ago, on November 1, 2007, that Google's stock price climbed above $700 for the first time, reaching a high of $741 later that month and leading some analysts and bloggers to speculate that it could hit $1,000 in due time. But by mid-January, the once-unsinkable stock had fallen below $600 and has not yet recovered.
Meanwhile, fellow Valley stalwart Yahoo is in danger of seeing its stock price dip below $10 for the first time since 2003, when the industry was still recovering from the aftermath of the tech bubble pop. Yahoo's stock closed at $10.34, with a low point of $10.02. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings recently revealed that the company has a $73 million bill resulting from failed negotiations with Microsoft over its acquisition bid, corporate raider Carl Icahn over his board takeover, and Google over a proposed search-ad deal.
The Google-Yahoo search deal dissolved at Google's behest, when antitrust regulators threatened legal action, and the company said "pressing ahead risked not only a protracted legal battle but also damage to relationships, with valued partners." A jilted Yahoo publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the decision.
Microsoft had offered to buy Yahoo in a deal that ultimately would have valued the company at $33 per share. Yahoo rebuffed the offer, and, according to some, it may very well regret doing so now.
CNET's index of overall tech stocks was down nearly 5 percent at the end of trading Wednesday, reaching 1,048 points.
In broader economic-downturn news, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced earlier on Wednesday a change in direction for the $700 billion U.S. market bailout, putting more focus on consumer debt and home foreclosures than on sweeping rescues of ailing mortgage-backed securities.
This post was expanded at 1:38 p.m. PT.
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