SANTA CLARA, Calif.--Thin is getting thinner. That's Intel's message as a wave of affordable, ultra-thin laptops is expected to break this summer.
Erik Reid, Intel's director of marketing for Mobile Products Group
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)Last week, I sat down with Erik Reid, director of marketing for the Mobile Products Group at Intel. Reid described Intel's strategy for its Consumer Ultra-Low-Voltage (CULV) processors--a segment that Intel describes as "ultra-thin"--and the chipmaker's first "Nehalem" mobile processors.
Ultra-thin is a big move for Intel. This will be Intel's primary mobile market focus in the next few months--until Nehalem appears later this year, according to Reid.
"It's a big change in the market. Consumer ULV has great battery life, very low TDPs," Reid said.
TDP, or thermal design power, describes the power envelope of a processor. For example, the current Apple MacBook Air uses Intel ultra-low-voltage processors with a TDP about half of the 35-watt rating for mainstream Intel mobile processors. Some of the lowest-power processors for the ultra-thin CULV category may be only a few watts more than the power-sipping Atom--which is rated at no more than 2.5 watts.
And what will consumers notice the most? Aside from good battery life, the laptop's aesthetics. "Systems can't ever be too thin. So thin will be a significant change in the industry and we're very pleased with the traction that we're seeing leading up to the introduction of those products," Reid said.
Prices will also get consumers' attention. "The affordability thing is really important. Look at your MacBook Air and think about that in terms of being available at different price points," said Intel spokesman Bill Calder.
Intel's initial processors for the ultra-thin category will be single core--like the current SU3500 processor. And the new chips won't all necessarily be Core 2--Intel's current mobile architecture--though Intel wouldn't elaborate on what other architectures--such as Pentium--it may use.
And size? Reid said some laptops will be 13.3-inch (diagonal screen size) designs, some will be a little larger, some will range down to 11.6-inch designs.
And what about cannibalization of the Netbook market--and vice-versa? "We're seeing very little cannibalization," Reid said. "Consumer ULVs are full-featured PCs. Price points will overlap. You might have some premium Netbooks in price bands where you'll see ULV," he said.
"We don't call it a Netbook if it's more than a 10.2-inch," Calder said. "The more that we can be clear about that and help people understand what each one is optimized for, the better the experience they will have," according to Reid. Netbooks are companion devices, Reid said. A person with a notebook is adding to their purchase when they get a Netbook. There are relatively few cases in which the Netbook is being used as the primary device, according to Reid. (Some readers may disagree with this.)
... Read moreIntel Chief Executive Paul Otellini said low-cost, ultrathin laptops with future Intel processors will be a big trend, a development that could upset the Netbook cart.
HP Pavilion dv2: harbinger of things to come
(Credit: CNET Reviews)During Intel's first-quarter earnings conference call Monday afternoon, Otellini had a surprising amount to say about Intel's upcoming consumer ultra-low-voltage (CULV) processors, designed to fit into future ultrathin laptops that are expected to be priced significantly below $1,700-and-up luxury laptops such as the Apple MacBook Air and the recently-introduced Dell Adamo. The category of upcoming CULV-based laptops has been described by some observers as the MacBook Air for the masses.
CULV chips will be based on mainstream Intel chip designs, such as Intel's Core architecture, differentiating them from the lower-performance Atom processor, which powers low-cost Netbooks.
Otellini said in prepared remarks during the conference call that Intel "looks forward to the launch of our consumer ultra-low-voltage products, which will enable many new sleek thin-and-light notebooks at very compelling price points."
And later in the conference call, responding to an analyst's question, he said: "The big trend in notebooks this year, starting mid-year, is likely to be very well designed thin-and-light notebooks using the CULV or ultra-low-voltage products."
Otellini continued. "And I think you'll see those at very attractive price points. Up to this point in time, those machines have been sort of executive jewelry and I think they'll hit mainstream consumer price points."
He said that these notebooks will be different from Netbooks. "And we're expecting (there will be) a more clear distinguishing set of characteristics between Netbooks and notebooks," he said.
One issue likely to emerge is, why would anyone buy a $500 Netbook, like the HP Mini-Note 2140, if these more powerful, sleek laptops are available?
The Intel CEO also said that new versions of the Atom processor are coming and mentioned a dual-core version. Intel currently offers a dual-core 330 Atom model for Nettops--a low-cost desktop PC category--so this would presumably be in addition to this sole dual-core Atom offering.
Otellinli also said that the future Larrabee graphics processor shown at the Intel Developers Conference in Beijing last week was a "high-end version" and added that "there's obviously other versions that have far fewer cores for different price points. What you saw is the 'extreme' version, let me put it that way." Volume shipments of Larrabee are expected early next year, he said.
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Here's a radical idea: a 2009 Apple computer with an AMD processor.
Improbable?
(Credit: Apple, AMD)Maybe this isn't in the cards, but it should be. Especially in light of Advanced Micro Devices' upcoming ultraportable platforms.
I see an upscale Netbook-like Apple computer with, let's say, a slightly smaller form factor than the Apple MacBook Air. Maybe an 11-inch or 12-inch design packing low-power (and relatively inexpensive) AMD Yukon or Congo silicon. This would not be a Netbook clone--and would offer much better graphics silicon than a Netbook--allowing Apple to sufficiently differentiate itself.
Or what about an Apple laptop with an upcoming AMD 45-nanometer mobile processor plus ATI Radeon HD 3600-level graphics that slots below the MacBook Pro? I'm sure Apple could find a head-turning way to implement this that would set it apart from the Intel-based hordes.
Or: AMD's 45-nanometer Shanghai or Phenom II in a Mac Pro? Maybe this concept is beyond the pale for the marketing folks at Apple, but it shouldn't be.
And Apple has demonstrated it can buck conventional processor politics. Intel's newest ultra-low-voltage (ULV) Core 2 Duo processors were offered by all the top-tier laptop vendors as an Intel bundle--Intel processor and Intel integrated graphics--until Apple decided to "think different" and up the ante with an Nvidia GeForce 9400M-based chipset.
Needless to say, AMD needs to go where Intel hasn't gone before in 2009. Last year was not a good year for AMD. Aside from its financial difficulties and the spinoff of its manufacturing operations, it couldn't muster a respectable challenge to Intel in server, desktop, or mobile chips. AMD's newest Shanghai processor for servers and Phenom II for desktops should be competitive with Intel offerings, but don't expect any tectonic shift in market share.
So AMD should be targeting Intel vulnerabilities--some of them self-imposed because of Intel's rigid processor segmentation in some areas--as well as exploiting its self-proclaimed advantage: AMD is the only one of the Big Three PC processor suppliers (the other two being Intel and Nvidia) that makes both CPUs and GPUs.
AMD's Fusion strategy should be more than a marketing mantra. Some unsolicited advice: find a truly unique way to fuse together the strengths of the CPU and GPU before Intel or Nvidia beat you to it.
The Netbook, take two: When Advanced Micro Devices said it wasn't going to focus on Netbooks, as Intel and its partners defined them, maybe it was on to something.
Intel is re-evaluating the Netbook market as possibly not The Next Big Thing. This from the company that makes the Atom processor and accompanying silicon that go into most of the Netbooks sold today.
HP Mini Netbook 1030NR: the next big thing?
(Credit: Best Buy)At a recent Raymond James IT Supply Chain Conference (streamed via this Intel page), Stu Pann, vice president in the sales and marketing group at Intel, said his company sees the Netbook differently now.
"We originally thought Netbooks would be for emerging markets and younger kids, and there is some of that. It turns out the bulk of the Netbooks sold today are Western Europe, North America, and for people who just want to grab and go with a notebook," Pann said. "We view the Netbook as mostly incremental to our total available market," he added.
And the most revealing statement? "If you've ever used a Netbook and used a 10-inch screen size--it's fine for an hour. It's not something you're going to use day in and day out."
Though this may simply reaffirm some people's view of the Netbook, it may also be surprising to others who thought the Netbook was potentially a laptop replacement for highly mobile users looking for a lightweight design. Or at least a design that was bearable beyond one hour.
Enter AMD and its take on the market. Though it won't resist if computer makers use its upcoming Huron and Conesus CPUs (one of these is due early next year) for Netbook-like designs, its focus is on ultrathin laptops similar in build to the 13-inch MacBook Air (and even 14-inch designs) but at a much lower price point.
AMD Chief Executive Dirk Meyer said earlier this month that "we're ignoring the Netbook phenomenon--just thinking about PC form factors above that form factor." And Bahr Mahony, director of notebook product marketing at AMD, said at that time that there are "a fair number of people" who are not satisfied with the experience they're having with Netbooks.
Mahony added that the dissatisfaction with Netbooks "has been exhibited by the high return rates that have been seen on these mini notebooks" in Europe. (AMD uses the terms "Netbook" and "mini notebook" interchangeably.)
AMD believes that the Netbook screen size is too small and the performance disappointing.
The coming year should show whether the Netbook has legs or whether it was just another marketing flash-in-the-pan like the UMPC (ultramobile personal computer) before it.
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