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Samsung's NC20 Netbook shows that Via Technologies' Nano processor can keep up with the Joneses. But will Nvidia be given the chance?

CNET Reviews' Dan Ackerman reviewed the new Samsung NC20 Netbook and found it not wanting in a matchup with the Asus Eee PC 1000HE, packing Intel's latest and greatest Atom N280.

Samsung NC20 Netbook packs a Via Nano processor--not an Intel Atom.

(Credit: CNET Reviews)

Though Nano is a necessary industry antidote to Intel's grip on the Netbook market, in the scheme of market share numbers, Via's chip is a blip at best.

I find it almost amusing when Intel lists Via as one of two competitors (Advanced Micro Devices being the other) in its Form 10-K filings. It's a fair analogy to say it's like a mom-and-pop coffee shop among a dense cluster of Starbucks stores. You may draw a few customers but 99 percent of the market is going to go to Starbucks.

Via helped pioneer the Netbook market in early 2008 by powering one of the earliest high-profile products, the Hewlett-Packard 2133 Mini-Note. In fact, Via was already supplying the inexpensive, low-power Via C7M--Nano's predecessor--in 2005 when the Atom concept was just a glimmer in Intel's eye.

The Netbook market vacuum didn't last long, however. Within months of Atom's arrival, the Via C7M was squashed by the Intel juggernaut, not to rise again. (Largely due to the fact that the C7M was slow, as one reader points out.)

The sober reality is that Via faces the same daunting challenge that Nvidia does: competing with Intel. The largest Netbook vendors--Asus and Acer--are wedded to Intel processors and chipsets, as are most of the other major players. An incremental increase in processor performance from Via won't necessarily tempt PC makers to drop Atom.

Nvidia's predicament is even more difficult because the GPU supplier can offer something that Intel can't: great graphics performance in a Netbook.

Nvidia faces a Catch 22. It needs a lot of Netbook design wins to make decent profit margins but customers won't sign up for Nvidia's Ion in the face of Intel's bundling incentives.

Alas, Nvidia's Ion seems destined only for tiny desktops for now. Nvidia has been shopping its Ion platform (Atom + Nvidia 9400M graphics) around and has had some success with top-tier PC companies looking to design diminutive desktops. But not any success to date in the Netbook space (although some smaller Asia-based Netbook makers are expected to announce Ion-based Netbooks at Computex in June).

Then there's Tegra. This Nvidia chip platform may have more success in the category of so-called "$99" Netbooks that are more akin--in the way they are offered to customers--to cell phones than laptops. These Netbooks, as depicted by Qualcomm, would be always-on and not part of the WinTel (Windows-Intel) ecosystem.

Nvidia went out of its way this week to demonstrate a concept device at CTIA in Las Vegas running Windows CE. Nvidia basically tore out the guts of an Intel-based HP Mini 1000 Netbook and replaced it with Tegra parts, according to a Nvidia spokesman Derek Perez, who attended CTIA this week.

Intel's Atom is proving to be a very popular chip. But is it too low-rent for Apple?

First the news. iSuppli reported Monday that Intel gained share, based on revenue, in the global microprocessor during every quarter of 2008 to finish up with 80.5 percent of the total processor market--a 1.6 percent gain over rivals--partly due to the success of its Atom chip in Netbooks.

Would a hypothetical Apple Netbook be a high-end product like Sony's Vaio P line?

(Credit: Sony)

"Intel's low-priced Atom has become increasingly popular as the Netbook market has gained steam," Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms research, for iSuppli, said in a statement.

Worldwide unit shipments of Netbooks soared by more than 2,000 percent in 2008 and are expected to rise by about 68 percent in 2009, iSuppli said.

Not surprisingly, every major computer maker has announced a Netbook--some, like Toshiba, begrudgingly--and others, like Dell, seemed, at least initially, to put a product out there just in case.

Hewlett-Packard--one of the early leaders in the market--came out (back in April 2008) first with an upscale business-class "Mini-Note" Netbook, but since then HP has added a lower-cost consumer-focused HP Mini 1000 series too. All HP Netbooks now use the Atom processor after a brief flirtation with a Via processor (used because HP developed its Mini-Note before Atom was available).

Sony finally chimed in this year with the a luxury Netbook--the Vaio P series, which ranges in price from $900 to $1,499 with a 128GB solid-state drive and 2GB of memory--both atypical for an Atom-based system.

But not Apple. Now about a year after Intel rolled out the Atom brand. A Russian magazine has posted a pretty compelling mock-up of what an Apple Netbook could (should?) look like. The magazine even proffered some believable specs that were slightly off-kilter--a typical Apple product strategy: a 1.86GHz Atom Z540 (typically not used in Netbooks, most vendors default to the 1.6GHz N270), a 64GB solid-state drive (not unheard of in Netbooks but certainly not common), and, most interestingly, an Nvidia chipset and Nvidia graphics.

One of the challenges Apple faces with a luxury Netbook configuration like this is that it comes uncomfortably close to its pricey MacBook Air, which also offers Nvidia graphics and solid-state drives. This, of course, could change if Apple updates the Air with a more upscale configuration.

Or Apple could bring out an un-Netbook (Apple, of course, will dare not speak the name "Netbook") like Sony but trump Sony by using an inexpensive Intel Core 2 ultra-low-voltage (ULV) processor (due by early summer) that keeps it up-market but far enough below MBA territory.

That said, if Apple goes the Atom-based Netbook route, it will not be immune from the inevitable cannibalization that Atom brings with it.

Some potential MacBook Air buyers would look at a 10- or 11-inch Apple Netbook and say why pay the $1,000 premium? Maybe too many for Apple's taste. We'll see.

For an OS to wrestle market share from Microsoft's Windows, it will need two things: the OS-maker's support and low licensing fees, an analyst said.

This rings true even on the Netbook front, a relatively new PC segment, and even for Microsoft.

Recently, the Android OS backed by Google was unofficially ported to an Asus Eee PC Netbook, and according to online reports, the Taiwanese manufacturer has set up a team to develop a Netbook running on the Linux-based OS.

Calvin Huang, an analyst at Daiwa Securities, told ZDNet Asia in an interview, Android is poised to "kill Microsoft" on several fronts: a big vendor-backed OS will likely provide better hardware support, and open source Android's license is free.

"Without any strong backup, Linux is just a niche platform. Now with Google's support, Android has a better chance to win users from Microsoft," said Huang.

According to Google's developers, what distinguishes Android from other Linux platforms is its Dalvik virtual machine. It provides a layer for programmers so they do not have to worry about the underlying hardware on which Android is deployed.

While this helps app developers building software for Android's mobile app market, this benefit can extend to the broader developer community, should Android find itself on Netbooks commercially.

The current economic downturn will also likely play a part in pushing manufacturers to Android, Huang added. "The license fee really matters and manufacturers don't like to be taxed by Microsoft. An Android Netbook will definitely cost less than a Windows Netbook."

But there is still the issue of user acceptance.

Several Netbooks, including Asus' Eee PC and MSI's Wind devices first came with Linux OSes, but manufacturers started looking to Windows after resistance from consumers and stores started seeing returns from customers who did not like the interfaces.

In the Philippines, Asus dropped Linux on all of its Eee PC models in the country because Filipinos were not taking to the Linux OS well, according to an Asus marketing manager.

However, Huang thinks it is a matter of time for Android. "Users need to get used to a non-Windows OS. Microsoft should be fine for the next two to three years. (After that) Google will change Microsoft's dominance," said Huang.

Another factor likely to help push user acceptance is Android's release to customers on mobile phones, providing an inroad to penetrating this market.

Victoria Ho of ZDNet Asia reported from Singapore.

Eee PCs on display at the 2009 edition of CeBit. For more Eee PC photos, click on the image. (Note: The captions are in German.)

(Credit: ZDNet Germany)

HANNOVER, Germany--Asus is to phase out its 7-inch-screen Eee PC Netbooks in mature markets, company chairman Jonney Shih said on Tuesday.

During a press conference at the CeBit technology show here, Shih told ZDNet UK that the manufacturer would concentrate on its 10-inch Netbooks, which he said customers preferred. He denied recent reports that Asus would phase out its 8.9-inch Netbooks. However, he did say that it would cut 7-inch Eee PCs--the original size for the line--from its catalog.

Asus Chairman Jonney Shih at CeBit.

(Credit: ZDNet UK)

"It seems that customers prefer to have a greater screen, which also means a larger keyboard," Shih said. "I still believe we have a good opportunity in 8.9-inch for kids, telecoms (providers) or emerging markets. The 7-inch (Netbook) is going to be phased out, although some emerging countries may still have some demand."

Asus has previously had to deny rumors that it would remove all its sub-10-inch Netbooks from its range. In November, it said both its 8.9-inch and 7-inch Netbooks would survive with refreshed specifications.

At CeBit, the annual spring tech show, Asus showed off a variety of new and recently announced products. It offered up an Eee videophone, an Eee NAS PC, and several new notebooks, including the Eee PC "Seashell" 1008HA, which is a one-inch-thick, 10-inch-screen version of the Eee Netbook design.

The Netbook, take two: When Advanced Micro Devices said it wasn't going to focus on Netbooks, as Intel and its partners defined them, maybe it was on to something.

Intel is re-evaluating the Netbook market as possibly not The Next Big Thing. This from the company that makes the Atom processor and accompanying silicon that go into most of the Netbooks sold today.

HP Mini Netbook 1030NR: the next big thing?

(Credit: Best Buy)

At a recent Raymond James IT Supply Chain Conference (streamed via this Intel page), Stu Pann, vice president in the sales and marketing group at Intel, said his company sees the Netbook differently now.

"We originally thought Netbooks would be for emerging markets and younger kids, and there is some of that. It turns out the bulk of the Netbooks sold today are Western Europe, North America, and for people who just want to grab and go with a notebook," Pann said. "We view the Netbook as mostly incremental to our total available market," he added.

And the most revealing statement? "If you've ever used a Netbook and used a 10-inch screen size--it's fine for an hour. It's not something you're going to use day in and day out."

Though this may simply reaffirm some people's view of the Netbook, it may also be surprising to others who thought the Netbook was potentially a laptop replacement for highly mobile users looking for a lightweight design. Or at least a design that was bearable beyond one hour.

Enter AMD and its take on the market. Though it won't resist if computer makers use its upcoming Huron and Conesus CPUs (one of these is due early next year) for Netbook-like designs, its focus is on ultrathin laptops similar in build to the 13-inch MacBook Air (and even 14-inch designs) but at a much lower price point.

AMD Chief Executive Dirk Meyer said earlier this month that "we're ignoring the Netbook phenomenon--just thinking about PC form factors above that form factor." And Bahr Mahony, director of notebook product marketing at AMD, said at that time that there are "a fair number of people" who are not satisfied with the experience they're having with Netbooks.

Mahony added that the dissatisfaction with Netbooks "has been exhibited by the high return rates that have been seen on these mini notebooks" in Europe. (AMD uses the terms "Netbook" and "mini notebook" interchangeably.)

AMD believes that the Netbook screen size is too small and the performance disappointing.

The coming year should show whether the Netbook has legs or whether it was just another marketing flash-in-the-pan like the UMPC (ultramobile personal computer) before it.

Looking for signs that netbooks are catching on? And even morphing into notebooks? Here's a few.

Netbooks were the big end-user gadget on display at the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference that ended Friday.

And all the Netbooks at a Microsoft booth were running Windows 7, Microsoft's next-generation operating system due next year.

A Microsoft person on the floor said that a lite version of Windows 7 will run on 1GB of memory and 16GB of (solid-state drive) storage. Higher-end Netbooks will have a 160GB hard disk drive, according to Microsoft "guidance."

Microsoft displayed Netbooks running Windows 7 at WinHEC

(Credit: Brooke Crothers)

This person also said something surprising. Dual-core Atom processors will be used in Netbooks. I tried to disabuse him of the notion that netbooks would get dual-core Atom processors. No, I said, it was Nettops (Atom-based desktops) that would get dual-core. But he assured me that vendors were planning to bring out dual-core Netbooks.

So, I contacted Intel. There are no immediate plans for dual-core Atom chips designed specifically for Netbooks, according to Intel. But what's stopping a netbook supplier from using a dual-core Atom 330 (designed for nettops) in a Netbook? Answer: nothing.

At 8 watts, the chip has a higher power envelope than single-core Atom processors, but 8 watts is still low compared with a mainstream Core 2 Duo processor. Other specifications for the Atom 330 include a core clock speed of 1.6GHz, 1MB of level-2 cache, and support for DDR2 667MHz memory.

Beginning to sound more like a low-end notebook? I think so.

Netbook market share appears to be growing too. A little more than 5 million Atom processors shipped in the third quarter of 2008, according to Shane Rau of IDC, a market researcher. "Will it add to the total market or will it eat into the total market? Another question might be is Atom eating into another processor brand such as Celeron (Intel) or Sempron (AMD)?"

Rau says that the total market can grow while Netbooks eat into notebook market share. "The TAM (Total Available Market) can grow even as Atom eats into another brand. But we don't know how it's shaking out yet," he said.

And here's evidence of Netbooks penetrating the consumer consciousness. Best Buy now has a separate category for Netbooks on its Web site. Right under laptop computers you'll see "Netbooks". Interestingly, the Netbooks category is ranked above desktops and most other "computer" categories.

Other signs. Dell has a 12-inch laptop, the Inspiron Mini 12 based on the Atom processor. Is this a Netbook or notebook? You tell me.

Solid-state drives, if not yet ubiquitous, have arrived. You can find them in laptops big and small and as a high-octane storage option for gaming PCs.

Alienware 128GB SSD option adds $550 but on the Dell XPS M1530 this option adds only $450.

(Credit: Alienware)

SSDs made their mark by appearing in the trendiest ultraportables like the Apple MacBook Air and Asus Eee PC--typically as stratospherically priced options, fashion statements rarely seen in the real world.

These drives are now coming off their rarefied shelf space and appearing across a wider range of laptops and ultraportable computers.

Any new, lightweight enterprise laptop worth its salt comes with a large-capacity solid-state drive option now. Hewlett-Packard recently introduced the 3-pound EliteBook 2530p with an Intel 80GB solid-state drive option and Dell this month announced the 2.2-pound Dell E4200 with a 128GB drive.

Dell E4200 ultraportable can be configured with 128GB SSD

(Credit: Dell Computer)

Dell also offers solid-state drives on more mainstream laptops such as the 15-inch XPS M1530 laptop. The SSD option on the M1530 is twice the capacity and half the price of drives offered to date: 128GB for $450. The first generation of solid-state drives in the MacBook Air, for example, added almost $1,000 to the cost for only 64GB of storage. Dell lists it as an "Ultra Performance" M1530 option.

Solid-state drives are almost synonymous with the new category of tiny laptops called netbooks. And the category continues to grow. Lenovo is the latest high-profile entry. Earlier this month the China-based company introduced the IdeaPad S10 with a 4GB solid-state drive option.

More notable is the 10-inch Asus Eee PC 1000 that comes with a 40GB solid-state drive and that's priced at just under $700.

HP VP Keith LeFebvre holds a new EliteBook 2530p ultraportable. The laptop comes with an Intel 80GB SSD. Larger 160GB drives from Intel are expected in the fourth quarter.

(Credit: Intel)

In the gaming space, solid-state drives are just beginning to be aggressively marketed as the ultimate high-performance storage option. Last week at the Intel Developer Forum, Chris Saleski from Intel's Storage Technologies Group demonstrated an Intel 80GB X25M solid-state drive crushing 7,200-rpm, 500GB Seagate Barracuda drives in benchmarks. The single Intel drive hit 44,000 IOPS (input-output operations per second), while the Seagate array did under 550 IOPS.

If this benchmark holds up in the real world, solid-state drives could catch on at game PC makers like Falcon Northwest, which demonstrated its FragBoxes at the Intel forum also beating high-performance hard-disk drives.

Dell's Alienware game PC unit currently offers a 128GB solid-state option for $550 on its Area-51 M15x laptop. "Solid state drives are the best performance options Alienware offers hardcore gamers," Alienware said in a statement. "These drives offer them shorter load times and faster access rates that put them at a much higher level of performance than traditional hard drives."

Alienware currently offers up to a 256GB SSD in a "RAID 0" configuration.