Microsoft will allow only limited rights for those who buy a Windows 7 PC to go back to Windows XP, according to an analyst who said he has been briefed on Microsoft's plans.
According to Gartner analyst Michael Silver, Microsoft plans to only allow the downgrade option to those who buy PCs during the first six months that Windows 7 is on the market (see update below). After that, Microsoft's proposed licensing terms would allow buyers of Windows 7 Professional and Windows 7 Ultimate only to go back to the comparable Windows Vista edition.
That could put users, particularly small businesses, in a bind. That's because many businesses want the right to go to Windows 7 without having to pay more, but will need longer than six months to test the new operating system.
"This becomes an important issue," Silver said, noting that many businesses haven't been running Vista at all and plan to jump from Windows XP to Windows 7. "The ones that skipped Windows Vista need to be able to run Windows XP and later run Windows 7 and would like to not have to pay Microsoft for that (on new machines that they are buying)."
Businesses that have volume license deals for Windows or a software assurance contract would be able to move back to Windows XP even if they bought their Windows 7 PCs after six months, Silver said.
A Microsoft representative was not immediately available for comment (see update below). The company had said it would allow downgrades with Windows 7, but has not gone into great detail.
Downgrade rights, though they also existed with Windows XP, came into prominence with Windows Vista as a broad array of users, from consumers to small and mid-size businesses to corporations, all looked to buy new machines that could run Windows XP.
Silver said he doesn't expect as many people will buy Windows 7 machines with the intent of permanently staying on XP, but he said businesses need more than six months to make the move.
"I think it will be more temporary than with Vista," he said, referring to the downgrade phenomenon. "With Vista, a lot of people brought in machines with XP and had no intention (to move to Vista) or eventually lost that inclination to upgrade to Vista."
Silver also said the six-month rule will create a huge administrative headache for businesses trying to determine which of their machines can legally run XP.
Update, 5:00 p.m.: A Microsoft representative said late Tuesday that the company has decided to extend the period for which Windows 7 machines will be eligible to downgrade to XP. Rather than a six-month window, as originally planned, the window will extend to either 18 months from the Windows 7 launch or until the release of the first service pack of Windows 7, whichever comes first.
Microsoft reiterated that this policy applies to the Windows license that comes with new PCs. Businesses with volume licenses or software assurance that covers Windows can go back to XP or even earlier versions of Windows regardless of when they purchase a Windows 7 machine.
With Windows Vista, PC makers counted on their ability to sell machines with the right to go back to Windows XP, in some cases even pre-loading the older operating system.
(Credit: CNET)
Let's start with a disclaimer. Five-year forecasts are nearly always wrong and I have no reason to think Gartner's will be any different. Things tend to happen much faster or much slower than people initially forecast.
That said, if Gartner is even close to on point, there are plenty of trends that could be worrisome for Microsoft. First and foremost is the research firm's prediction that Apple will double its U.S. and western Europe market share by 2011.
Also of concern to folks in Redmond should be some of Gartner's other predictions. One is that a whole lot of us will start leaving our laptops at home. Gartner is estimating that the rise of pocket-size Web surfing products at around $400 means that by 2012 half of traveling workers will be able to leave the notebook at home. Helping that trend is the fact that it is growing easier to store your data and settings on the Internet and access them through any Web-connected device.
This should be a wake-up call to Microsoft. The company has been slow to compete in this area. Many of the most sought-after products, such as Apple's iPhone or Asus' Eee PC do not use Windows. Also, with Vista, Microsoft has created an operating system that requires more hardware, while the trend for these devices are to use slower, more energy efficient processors, along with more limited capacity flash memory.
Also of note for Microsoft watchers, Gartner predicts that within five years fully 80 percent of commercial software will include elements of open-source technology.
"Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported," Gartner said. "They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage."
On the software-as-a-service front, Gartner is estimating that by 2012, businesses will be spending a third of their application budget on subscription products, as opposed to product licenses. The firm also believes that forward thinking businesses will start buying their IT infrastructure as a service.
"Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times," Gartner said. "This trend to accepting commodity infrastructure could end the traditional 'lock-in' with a single supplier and lower the costs of switching suppliers."
Among its other predictions, Gartner is predicting a huge rise in 3D printers, ever more environmental focus and a trend of businesses bowing to end user demand for a larger number of hardware and software purchases. What do you make of Gartner's guesses? Which are spot-on and which are off-base?
- prev
- 1
- next
