Will the next Tony Soprano be on the Internet?

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"The Internet and the advent of (Internet Protocol) television allow creators to create in whatever length is optimal for the entertainment," Climan said. "If it's compelling, people will watch in any length that will hold their interest."

One piece of the media puzzle
But not everyone thinks a real hit could last on the Internet. And not necessarily because one couldn't be developed for the Web.

"We should never expect to see an Internet-only TV show become a hit," said James McQuivey, vice president of television and media technology at Forrester Research, "because if an Internet-only TV show really caught on, no producer would be foolish enough to turn down all the broadcast offers he or she would immediately receive. Thus, the Internet-only TV show would not remain (that way) for long."

Comcast's Robina agreed. "Some of the studios are looking to see if they can use the Internet as an incubation place," she said, "to find lower cost pilots."

But that's not necessarily a bad thing for Web content creation. In reality, the Internet is likely to become part of the larger media puzzle, and an effective--and cheaper--way to build excitement for new content.

"I believe that every media company that will survive will transform its creative process to utilize and embrace the Internet as the important creative medium that it is, with new rules and new opportunities," Climan said.

Media companies, over time, will develop best practices in using the Internet not only as a medium for viewing and interacting but for simply getting the word out, McQuivey said.

"Smart producers and promoters will use the Internet as one piece of a comprehensive show promotion blitz," said McQuivey. "There's no reason to choose only one medium from here on out. The Internet can promote a broadcast show extremely well to sustain interest between broadcast episodes. Conversely, for a property that starts on the Internet, no producer would be content with the relatively small audiences the Net can deliver because it means advertisers won't be as interested."

Still, there are a couple of friction points that could keep great original Web content from being moved to television, experts say.

One is that traditional media producers would likely want to acquire all rights to a new property, and that is something some Web content entrepreneurs might not want to hand over.

"Producers would want to own all the rights and own all the mediums, and if there were a giant breakaway hit online," Hawkins said, "the large content owners would have to get past that."

Hawkins can also "see a future in which something launched on the Internet would stay on the Internet."

Similarly, Climan said, the culture surrounding Web content production is very different than that of Hollywood, and if the traditional media companies want to bring in content originally created for the Web, they may have to get used to people working on their studio lots that aren't willing to adhere to the strict rules of traditional media production.

"There will be a new generation of creators who might not fit the historic model of what a writer or director for TV or film might have looked like, but who will excel in the raw and direct social media that are springing up throughout the Internet," Climan said. "And once their creative contributions are identified, media companies of the future will (have to) find ways of working with those new creators that don't try to impose the straitjacket of traditional media on their creative process."

[dondarko]

looks like a news post from 1999

where is the mention of Joost (free online TV, joost.com) and Vuze (free and paid HD movies, series, etc.)? You only mention YouTube and some obscure media company while TV revolution is happening under your noses.

[dredamonsta1]

your right

wifi tv and brightcove are out there with there own millions of channels and when a hit comes up from some of those it will be like we didnt see it comeing

[shark12er]

ga

"Great find! Thanks for posting this, that's my something new for today learnt."

http://www.greatdownload.org

[sprogg2001]

Once again the Studio's get it wrong!

People dont want to watch 5-10 min shows on the internet!!! thats what you tube is for!

Look to see what already works. Hundreds of thousands of people download TV shows illegaly because they are full featured content, no ads, no breaks, and on demand.

Provide the content and the technonogy will take advantage of it. Get the studios to move away from a ad paid model system and you get your money from dedicated viewers and stop deciding how "good" a shows is, based on the number of viewers who watched it at a particular time.
then maybe great shows with lots of people willing to pay to view will thrive and the "So you think you can dance" shows will hopefully die out.