November 18, 2005 4:00 AM PST

Will small publishers still have game?

At the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco seven months ago, there was an undercurrent of fear.

Would sharply rising development costs, game developers worried, make designing games for the impending next-generation consoles--Microsoft's Xbox 360, Sony's PlayStation 3 and Nintendo's Revolution--prohibitive for all but the biggest publishers?

With the Xbox 360 finally hitting store shelves Tuesday, little has happened to assuage those fears.

Certainly, games for the next generation of consoles being led by the new Xbox will come from a wide variety of publishers. And fears that the little guys won't be able to keep pace arise every time a new platform--whether it's the new version of Windows or a new game console--hits the market.

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What's new:
With Microsoft's Xbox 360 finally hitting store shelves Tuesday, little has happened to reassure developers who worry about the costs of designing games for the new consoles.

Bottom line:
Some insiders say smaller developers are likely to see much more upside in the coming months developing for current-generation consoles than for next-generation consoles and their initially small install bases.

More stories on next-generation consoles

But it's increasingly clear that game development costs are squeezing the little guys. Richard Doherty, an analyst with Envisioneering, said that while it's impossible to put a dollar figure on the base cost of developing games, the next generation of consoles, with their high-definition technology and motion captures, can double costs.

For giant game publishers like Electronic Arts and Activision, that's not so difficult. But for a little outfit, such development costs mean that one disappointing game can put the whole company on the ropes.

"It's really only big-name publishers that are going to be able to bring large numbers of next-generation titles to market," said Simon Jeffery, president and COO of Sega of America, whose "Condemned: Criminal Origins" is one of 18 Xbox 360 titles that will be on shelves when the console goes on sale Tuesday.

For most everyone else, the margin for error is going to be smaller than ever.

"Success (of a game) is that much more crucial," said Jeffery, "and the barrier to entry higher."

Microsoft executives say their roster of launch titles is the strongest in console history. In fairness, the original Xbox launched with 11 titles. And some analysts, like IDC's Schelley Olhava, agree that Microsoft has put together a formidable set of games spanning most of the crucial genres such as sports, first-person shooters and racing.

But other analysts note that a lot of publishers decided that it would be better to wait on developing games for the new consoles because they didn't have the wherewithal to produce titles Microsoft would want with the initial launch and decided instead to continue developing for the current-generation consoles and 20 million-plus users.

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"I think there were decisions made in the last 12 months," said Doherty, "that (publishers either) want to be one of the (launch) titles or, 'Nah, we'll be part of the second group.'"

Since the initial 18 games come from only seven publishers, it seems the real innovation--that is to say a wide variety of genres and types of games--in next-generation titles will come after the initial console buzz.

"Most developers had to decide to wait for the second stage of games," Doherty said, referring to the period in the months after the console launches when the number of people who have bought the consoles justifies the development costs for a new game.

The games that hit the market in the earliest days of the Xbox, Sony's PlayStation 3 and Nintendo's Revolution will largely be franchise titles--those that publishers update again and again, like Electronic Arts' "Madden"--and not the massive budget games that may take the most advantage of the state-of-the-art graphics and sound capabilities of the new consoles.

Sony's PlayStation 3 is expected to launch in Japan next spring and in North America in the fall, while Nintendo's Revolution is expected to be out in the spring.

CONTINUED: Could innovation suffer?…
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4 comments

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Small vs Indie
Small publishers and developers have been under massive pressure for years. Developing under the cloud of buyout by EA or Atari or Activision or NameYourBigPublisher if they do make a hit game, and the threat of bankruptcy if they fail to make a splash.

Meanwhile, the indie development and publishing scene has been growing by leaps and bounds, eschewing the big corporation model of crappy movie tie-ins, league exclusivity deals, and hours of cinematics that players just skip through anyway in favor of classic gameplay, smart game mechanics, and 10-20 dollar online downloads.

Microsoft's X360 is tapping into that indie development scene too. The Live Marketplace has games in the 5 to 10 dollar price point developed by these same small indie developers (PopCap, ABA Games, and others), augmented by classic arcade titles by Midway, Atari, and other majors.

That's the place to be looking for innovations, not the store shelves. Brick and mortar retail is rapidly becoming irrelevant as the gaming population ages (longing for retro games) and the consumer becomes more savvy about their options for downloadable games at budget prices.
Posted by falcomadol (1 comment )
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Casual Gaming
The days of small publishers/developers having their games available at traditional brick and mortar stores is most likely coming to an end. The market that is growing at amazing rates is the casual games market, where the majority of the games are still developed and published by small companies. The games are simple, the graphics are typically good, but within the ability of a small group of artists, and the programming is more basic.

One of the biggest new avenues for these small companies will be platforms like the new Xbox Live Arcade for the Xbox 360. Quick and easy access to small to medium sized games from a wide range of publishers. Nothing to install, the download happens automatically in the background, and everything just works.
Posted by ebrandel (102 comments )
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Revolution
Nintendo has stated that they are trying to keep development costs down on several occasions. Perhaps this is part of the reason it doesn't support HD?
Posted by (9 comments )
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Home G. Console 1972?-2010 RIP
Home gaming consoles will be dead in 4 years or at least morph its form. smaller companies need to focus on hits in the portable arena. dedicated game machines will have 5-17 inch screens and sit on your lap like dvd players or laptops, without the huge price tag. the home game will be reduce to a docking station for boost in power and speed. people just wont have the time or the money to keep buying these minicomputers dedicated for game play, portable is the way to go. the nxtgen of teens will be more active then us, out and about, due to health conserns plaguing the youth of today, gaming in the home has to change. interactive game set ups with cameras, elaborate contraptions, will dominate the home play pushing joysticks to the "play on the move" market. downloading games from online or box store on the move instead of renting or buying cartridges or disks. a sort of 2n1 gaming system with the power of a home console but the flexability of a portable. so you dont have to be couped up in the house for hours sitting on your butt. improved sound, graphics, and battery life will dictate how soon this trend emerges, get ahead of the curve.
Posted by Luke_Cage (33 comments )
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