Will small publishers still have game?

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"These (games) are not going to (have) 100-person art teams," said Daryl Pits, president and COO of the small Santa Monica, Calif., publisher Jailed Games. As an example, he pointed to "Tony Hawk's American Wasteland" by Activision. "They certainly didn't spend $20 million on that game. So it's certainly possibly to develop a game without spending $20 million. You can take the work done this generation and move it over to the next-generation fairly easily."

Video: War games
'Call of Duty 2' rolls onto Xbox 360.

Essentially, Pits argued, the costs of game development mean that in the first few months, publishers that do take the plunge into the next-generation consoles will be forced to stick to existing franchises because they can't take the risk of putting tens of millions of dollars into games that may not do well. And that is even more true for small publishers like Jailed Games.

In the meantime, say industry experts, there should be no shortage of new game development for the original Xbox, and especially the PlayStation 2, which Sony seems primed to continue manufacturing and supporting through 2010.

Doherty said that he has been told by Microsoft that the company has enough parts and supplies to continue manufacturing the original Xbox through next summer and that it will evaluate its plans for that console at that point.

John Baez, a producer at The Behemoth, the small, independent San Diego publisher of "Alien Hominid," agreed. He thinks that a lot of smaller developers are likely to see much more upside in the coming months developing for current-generation consoles than for next-generation consoles and their initially small install bases.

"I think (that) would be a smart move for a smaller publisher that knows it can't go head-to-head with EA and Activision," said "There are millions of the current-generation consoles out there today, and people are not going to trash them the day the new consoles come out."

Still, Jailed Games' Pits explained that publishers who are working on new titles--as opposed to the latest versions of franchises--are going to feel pressured to build their games for the new consoles. And that's something the EAs of the world are in a much better position to do, given the tens of millions of dollars they can more easily throw at the problem.

Video: 'Perfect Dark Zero'
Sci-fi shooter takes on new console.

"If you're doing something from scratch," Pits said, "you need to be on next-generation systems. It's always better to launch a brand new game on new hardware."

And therein lies the problem for publishers who can't easily toss tens of millions of dollars at development: How to justify the development of brand new games that may or may not resonate in the marketplace. Game innovation, at least in the short term, could end up suffering.

"Once people become locked into that world view, that cycle, it becomes self-fulfilling," said Russell Williams, an executive producer at tiny Flying Lab Software. "'I can't make a game for less than $30 million, and if I get someone to give me $30 million, I'm not going to take a risk on something original.' Everybody ends up saying, 'Let's do what someone else has done that was proven in the market.'"

[falcomadol]

Small vs Indie

Small publishers and developers have been under massive pressure for years. Developing under the cloud of buyout by EA or Atari or Activision or NameYourBigPublisher if they do make a hit game, and the threat of bankruptcy if they fail to make a splash.

Meanwhile, the indie development and publishing scene has been growing by leaps and bounds, eschewing the big corporation model of crappy movie tie-ins, league exclusivity deals, and hours of cinematics that players just skip through anyway in favor of classic gameplay, smart game mechanics, and 10-20 dollar online downloads.

Microsoft's X360 is tapping into that indie development scene too. The Live Marketplace has games in the 5 to 10 dollar price point developed by these same small indie developers (PopCap, ABA Games, and others), augmented by classic arcade titles by Midway, Atari, and other majors.

That's the place to be looking for innovations, not the store shelves. Brick and mortar retail is rapidly becoming irrelevant as the gaming population ages (longing for retro games) and the consumer becomes more savvy about their options for downloadable games at budget prices.

[ebrandel]

Casual Gaming

The days of small publishers/developers having their games available at traditional brick and mortar stores is most likely coming to an end. The market that is growing at amazing rates is the casual games market, where the majority of the games are still developed and published by small companies. The games are simple, the graphics are typically good, but within the ability of a small group of artists, and the programming is more basic.

One of the biggest new avenues for these small companies will be platforms like the new Xbox Live Arcade for the Xbox 360. Quick and easy access to small to medium sized games from a wide range of publishers. Nothing to install, the download happens automatically in the background, and everything just works.

Revolution

Nintendo has stated that they are trying to keep development costs down on several occasions. Perhaps this is part of the reason it doesn't support HD?

[Luke_Cage]

Home G. Console 1972?-2010 RIP

Home gaming consoles will be dead in 4 years or at least morph its form. smaller companies need to focus on hits in the portable arena. dedicated game machines will have 5-17 inch screens and sit on your lap like dvd players or laptops, without the huge price tag. the home game will be reduce to a docking station for boost in power and speed. people just wont have the time or the money to keep buying these minicomputers dedicated for game play, portable is the way to go. the nxtgen of teens will be more active then us, out and about, due to health conserns plaguing the youth of today, gaming in the home has to change. interactive game set ups with cameras, elaborate contraptions, will dominate the home play pushing joysticks to the "play on the move" market. downloading games from online or box store on the move instead of renting or buying cartridges or disks. a sort of 2n1 gaming system with the power of a home console but the flexability of a portable. so you dont have to be couped up in the house for hours sitting on your butt. improved sound, graphics, and battery life will dictate how soon this trend emerges, get ahead of the curve.