Will Apple flash iPod rock market?

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some point soon you're going to get some flash players with some pretty hefty memory--2GB to 4GB--at price points that are between $149 and $199."

Flash players, because of their lower prices, have proved more popular overseas than in the United States. Still, Baker questioned whether now is the right time for Apple to enter the flash player market.

"I'm not sure they need to go there now, given that the (iPod) mini's only been out a year," Baker said.

Hard drives are seen as keeping a large share of the market though as customers seek to accomplish additional tasks with their players.

The 4GB to 5GB player is an area where the battle between flash and hard drive is likely to be most intense, as flash prices come down and capacities go up.

The iPod mini and rivals with similar size players use hard drives from Hitachi, Cornice and others. But flash memory is also becoming available in those sizes.

"It is going to, over time, fill the niche that these 1-inch hard drives are filling," said Joe Sipher, senior vice president of marketing for Virgin Electronics, which offers both flash-based and mini hard-drive-based players.

Baker agrees that flash could serve that niche well.

"The reason (mini hard-drive players) are popular is that 4 to 5 gigabytes holds a nice amount of music for most people--700 to 1,000 songs. Most people don't need a heck of a lot more than that," he said. "Coming out with 10GB drives (in mini hard-drive players) at $250 doesn't really do a lot for the market. People aren't looking for bigger capacities."

Hard drives are seen as keeping a large share of the market, though, particularly as customers seek to accomplish additional tasks with their players, such as view photos and watch videos.

Baker also noted the challenge Apple faces trying to grow its share of the overall MP3 market without cannibalizing sales from those who might buy a higher-priced hard-drive player.

If Apple offers a relatively cheap Apple flash iPod with 256MB or 512MB of memory and the iPod's music wheel and screen, it will be relatively easy for people to trade down to the less expensive player, Baker said.

Meanwhile, those in the flash market aren't standing still. One of the big advances they see is the emergence of subscription-based music, largely through Microsoft's Janus technology. That, they say, is something that makes flash players more attractive and is also something that Apple can't offer.

Having such a large selection also means that consumers won't be able to take all their music with them, perhaps making the prospect of frequently docking to a computer more palatable.

"Once Janus comes, you are going to have a million songs as your library," Sipher said.

Thomson is also looking at ways to address the roughly half of all households that don't have a PC, as well as people that don't use their computers to manage music.

"You are going to see from us a diversification of our lineup," Arland said. At January's Consumer Electronics Show, Thomson will introduce a bookshelf stereo system that can download music to a docked RCA Lyra MP3 player.

"That's ideal for people like my mom," Arland said. "She uses (a PC) for e-mail and eBay."

CNET News.com's John G. Spooner and John Borland contributed to this report.

So ar behind

Apple is so pathetic. Can?t they come up with something original anymore? They are so far behind. What will they come up with next? A media center? The only thing keeping apple around (market share down to 1.8% -http://www.osnews.com/story.php?news_id=8713) is their ability to copy and sell to fat rich turtle wearing zealots. When will they ever get it?

I?m sure apple will say they invented the flash based music player first just like everything else.

Bring on the trolls!

[Dachi]

Ew: So ar behind

Although I don't agree with most of what you said, I do wonder when Apple is going to make an effort to improve their market share numbers. They fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in just the third quarter of last year. With the fourth quarter just about over, I wonder where that number sits now (1.5%?). Market share may not matter to them now, but I bet it will when that number is .5%

[mortis9]

fat rich turtle wearing zealots.

i don't think that in any way describes me. Not just the rich purchase iPods. I work for $0.25 above minimum wage, but i love my music. I don't even own a mac, i use iTunes on my pc. Don't be so hyper critical. Besides, i didn't see you mention anything about Rolls Royce or Bently or Ferrari. Someone's got to cater the people who want to spend more than they're getting back. I can't afford a mac, but just because someone can doesn't make them a "fat rich turtle wearing zealot".

[Brian Breeding]

RE So "ar" behind

Ah Robert, your nonsensical mind betrays itself once again. For
starters, Apple never claimed to have invented the hard-drive
based Mp3 player; they made the best one. They didn't invent
the download-able music store-just did it right. And now, if the
flash-based iPod stories are true, again, they won't "claim" to
have invented it, just did it better than anyone else. You see,
the real problem for you is your inability to recognize creativity
and genius. While Apple has certainly laid some real eggs, it
continues to show a consistent track record of the finest
creation in the computer and electronic industry. Unlike Dell,
which truly does just copy, Apple innovates. Unlike Microsoft,
which buys out everything it "claims", Apple does invent items .
(try Firewire). Unlike Linux, which is still so far behind the curve
(and I do like Linux by the way) Apple sets the bar higher every
time it enters the market. So Robert, just keep those sad little
databases running, while the rest of us actually try to move the
human race forward.

PS
Can you say "spell check?"

[Grafix]

the flash bought

couldnt that flash be used in the new motorola/apple cellphone/ipod deal?