Week in review: Reading Apple's crystal ball

It seems lately that everyone can predict the future and knows what Apple is going to do next.

According to various sources, Apple is considering an all-you-can-eat plan in which users would receive free access to iTunes in exchange for paying a premium for its iPod and iPhone devices. If accurate, this would mark a big about-face for CEO Steve Jobs, who previously has dismissed the rental music model.

As part of the deal, Apple would have to agree to share sales revenue from the devices with the labels, a source close to the deal said. Cutting the labels in on iPod or iPhone revenue would mark a sharp turn in Apple's strategy.

The deal being discussed by the labels and Apple calls for the company to license the music and also "kick in a piece of the device sales," the source said.

The Apple device, which hasn't been determined yet, would come preprogrammed with a certain amount of music that, after a period of time--perhaps six months or a year--would roll into a subscription type of service plan, the source said.

Apple would be in for a fierce legal fight, should it ever undertake such a strategy, warns David Pakman, CEO of rival digital-music service eMusic.

"It smells like classic Sherman Antitrust Act to me," Pakman said. "I only know what I've read, but the plan sounds very similar to the tying practices Microsoft used with Windows (and) Explorer. And Microsoft is still paying the penalties for that one."

"What is really strange, as an Apple enthusiast, I find it counter to Apple in general."
-- CNET News.com reader

An Apple representative said the company does not comment on "rumor and speculation." The talks were first reported by the Financial Times.

The debate among CNET News.com readers on this topic was varied, with many baffled by the possible deal.

"This type of device is counter-culture to why people enjoy any music player, let alone an iPod," wrote one reader to News.com's TalkBack forum. "What is really strange, as an Apple enthusiast, I find it counter to Apple in general."

Sometimes it's more advantageous to be able to read lips rather than a crystal ball, as those following recent comments by Adobe Systems CEO Shantanu Narayen have learned. During a conference call to announce Adobe's first-quarter earnings, Narayen said Adobe "will work with Apple" to make sure that Flash applications can run on the iPhone.

"We can now start to develop the Flash player ourselves, and we think it benefits our joint customers," Narayen said. "So we want to work with Apple to bring that capability to the device."

However, apparently people read too much into that statement, and Adobe has admitted that it can't bring Flash to the iPhone just because it thinks that would be a neat idea.

Narayen's comments weren't exactly definitive, but they were judged by several media outlets to be a confirmation of Adobe and Apple's plans to put a Flash Player on the iPhone.

But Narayen also seems to have misunderstood the terms of the SDK. Flash isn't a mere third-party application, like a game or an instant-messaging client. It's a plug-in that would have to work very closely with Safari on the iPhone, and that's something Apple has declared off-limits to third-party developers at this time.

[rhsc]

I can see the headline for this day next year:

Pakman eats Apple

[dsstroud]

Flash will be on the iphone

MacWorld 2009 Steve Jobs will stroll on stage and bring out the
flunkies from Adobe and talk about the revolutionary cooperation it
took between the companies when he announces the addition of
flash for iPhone. By that time they should have a 3G version of the
phone out and web surfers will demand flash compatibility. Like a
lot of things Jobs says, he says it won't happen or is not possible
until all of a sudden it appears.

[laynemoseley]

I don't think they will do it

Steve has been very adamant about keeping the price at 99 cents a
song for a while... and it's a good strategy that works well.

However, maybe they are looking at driving more iPod sales,
because those sales are not growing very much like they have been
in the previous years.....

[tundraboy]

A little logic applied.

If your music subscription is tied to your iPod, and you can't transfer it (for free) when you buy a new iPod, then that would cause iPod owners to slow down their iPod replacement rate. That would not be good for Apple. That's why this idea is a non-starter.

[Fil0403]

Week in review: Reading Apple's boring crystal ball

Easy: basically spending more money in commercials deceiving more people into thinking that Apple products are perfect and that Macs are better than Windows PCs.