Perspective: Vista delay is back to the future for Redmond

Say what?

That's my G-rated reaction to Microsoft's stunning announcement that it won't ship the already-delayed consumer version of its Vista operating system. As company honchos gathered throughout Silicon Valley on Tuesday to mull over what this will mean to their futures, it's safe to assume their expressions were a bit more pungent.

Once the shock wears off, executives are sure to have very frank discussions with their counterparts in Redmond. It's been quite some time since the computer business had a wow product it could rally around and offer to customers as an incentive to upgrade. These folks were counting on Vista.

In Microsoft's view, this is simply a decision to delay the ship date by a few weeks. But it's much more.

Time was when Microsoft could get away with a product slip, shrug its shoulders and promise a "new and improved" version sometime soon.

Microsoft's OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) were banking on a big bang rollout in the fourth quarter. This extends throughout the PC food chain--from chipmakers to storage providers to applications developers and yes, computer manufacturers.

The new launch is now scheduled for January 2007. Microsoft is downplaying the slip, saying the extra time was needed to build better security into the product. That may be so, but this is Microsoft's biggest product launch in years. Considering the amount of resources being thrown at the Vista project, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and CEO Steve Ballmer now face unyielding embarrassment. How could things go so wrong this late in the process? For years, Microsoft fought to shed a reputation for being perennially late shipping big projects like Windows and Windows NT. Tuesday's announcement only makes those questions front and center again.

Microsoft is downplaying suggestions that Tuesday's news suggests anything fundamentally wrong with the company's internal processes. Still, you have to ask whether the company has grown so large that its ability to undertake a project this complex is inevitably going to be hampered by its own bureaucratic sloth.

Last time I was on the Redmond campus, I spoke with an engineer in Microsoft's labs. He was especially proud of a photo-filing feature his team had developed. The problem: Microsoft wouldn't be able to incorporate the functionality into the operating system until Vista (then called Longhorn) and that launch was then still two years away. And all the while that Microsoft meandered, Apple Computer had already developed technology that did much the same thing.

Recall that last year Microsoft dropped several important features in order to not slow down the shipment plans. Microsoft even removed WinFS, a key piece of Longhorn, so that PC makers could plan around a holiday release.

As with everything it does, Microsoft is careful to cultivate its public relations. Earlier in the day, the company announced it would increase the distribution of its Xbox 360 video game consoles. But that bit of good news will get overshadowed because Vista will miss the entire '06 holiday shopping season.

Beyond the obvious blow to its reputation, Microsoft's inability to tame Windows--always a notoriously hairy coding project--puts the company on the defensive at the worst possible juncture. Time was when Microsoft could get away with a product slip, shrug its shoulders and promise a "new and improved" version sometime soon. But that was pre-Internet, pre-Linux and pre-Google; 2006 is not 1996, and Microsoft's customers have other alternatives.

Biography
Charles Cooper is CNET News.com's executive editor of commentary.

More Perspectives

[HawaiiBob]

You bet they do

You bet consumers have other alternatives. And they would be
smart to take advantage of them. Linux and Mac OS 10 are there
while Microsoft still tries to get it right with Vista. They want to
build in more security. I hope so for the sake of all the people that
are going to buy err rent it from Microsoft. Frankly, I think MS.
discovered that it behaves much like Windows 95. And trying to
stop the bleeding before it is released.

[flattailzip]

1996 isn't 2006 - Amen Brother Cooper

sure we've all learned to put up with the late coming slop out of redmond but the attitude is what really gets me. Have you ever noticed how they're always innovating, alway innovating, but never really delivering.

Security - well gee that's a novel idea. Glad to see they're finally getting around to it. Keep innovating boys, keep innovating.

[HawaiiBob]

Yeah your right

They are always innovating it after Mac users have had for several
years. Why don't they just admit it. If it wasn't for Apple Computer
Widows would still be at 3.1 development stage.

[nhandler]

Lemons to lemonade? Frees up consumer spending money for XBox 360

A, perhaps unintended, benefit of this delay is that Microsort is no longer bifurcated in its onslaught against Sony for consumer dollars. Now, they can fully concentrate on deployment of the XBox 360 platform into consumer living rooms without simultaneously cannibalizing their Vista sales, and vice versa.

Vista will sell irregardless; people need new computers as software increasingly requires faster hardware and Vista (as opposed to XP) will be the platform of choice for most computer makers when it is released. Microsoft need not be concerned with a significant loss in long-term sales for this operating system, but if Vista were released over the holidays, consumers may choose a new PC over a new XBox 360.

Of course, this is also a plus for Sony as those same dollars not routed into a new computer could go to the purchase of a PS3.

Apples and Oranges

Duh, my IT department is not interested in getting an XBox 360, I can guarantee.

[fshepinc]

From A Mac User's Point Of View...

I'm not one to speak up on behalf of M$, but come on -they're in
a no-win situation. If they ship on time, but with a security flaw,
everyone will complain that they didn't take the time to do it
right. If they delay in order to fix a problem, they're hit for not
putting the product out on schedule.

You'd think that with all the money in the world at their disposal
they could manage to do it all, and on time. But I'd rather have a
good product a bit late than an on-time product that leaves me
vulnerable. OK, I won't be having this product -but you know
what I mean... :)

[nhandler]

Microsoft's Fool-Proof Plan for 100% Vista Security

No Vista = no Vista security flaws.

[john55440]

MS Hurts PC Manufacturers

Microsoft screws up, and it's PC manufacturers who will pay the biggest price. This is going to be a terrible Christmas for PC sales.

My personal concern is that my 2002 computer may die before 2007. That bit of timing would be _very_ annoying.

[nhandler]

So get a Mac

I'm no fanboy, but you could always do the one thing that does hurt their bottom line and buy a Mac or Linux box.

[ServedUp]

Unaccountable.

Microsoft is unaccountable. Plain and Simple.

They are very good at creating the buzz (even this is
questionable) but when it comes to substance they haven't
delivered (without question).

Windows XP (although much more secure now), MS touted was
the answer to everyone's security woes, it clearly wasn't when it
was first released. It was another OS which was rushed out the
door to compete with Apple's first release of OS X. Granted, it
was a good product move on MS's part, because they had to
maintain the illusion that they are a foward thinking company
and in doing so, control consumer mindshare in the process, but
compared to OS X now its like comparing Windows 3.1 vs XP .
OS X is miles ahead. Miles! And It doesn't seem Apple wants to
stop improving. Which doesn't bode well for MS.

Truth be known.. Longhorn (aka Vista) is a mess and they have
run out of time. What does that mean to them? Nothing. MS is
unaccountable for know one except itself. They are their own
worst enemy and who pays for this? We do as consumers..

Jim Allchin really hasn't given any straight answers as to why
Vista is delayed instead acts like a crooked politician in denying
any of the true hardcore facts of Vista. He's a real good shadow
boxer.. question dodger.. notice they haven't even held a press
conference or answered any serious questions about Vista.

In all honesty. When are they actually going to sit down and
create real deadlines?

For me, it doesn't sit well with me, as a MS consumer, that this
giant of the industry is finding it hard to piece together its own
product line. I mean as a consumer how many chances do we
give this company before it runs the whole industry to its heels?
Answer! We can't do anything. We let them dictate what we buy.
Why cause we have no choice? They have all the cards... Software
Developers, Computer Manufacturers, Huge Investors and whats
worst Corporate & Consumer Mindshare.. people stick to what
their comfortable with..

and it won't change unless we hold them accountable as smart
consumers..

start boycotting your MS products today!

[freemarket--2008]

Amen

I started boycotting log ago when I realized what how corrupt their business practices were. The 10s of billions they've spent paying off lawsuits could have been used to lower prices or produce a better product all these years. They give capitalism a real black eye.

[Albertv]

Old lesons never learned.

". . .We can't do anything. We let them dictate what we buy. Why cause we have no choice? They have all the cards..."

Whi gave them all the cards? Joe Public, the lemmings. Thank your aunt Tilly, we have loyal Mac and Linux users otherwise there would be no choice indeed. Something our great grand parents knew from experience is that it is foolish to put 'all' your eggs in one basket. Well the majority of their offspring are tone deaf.

Go Linux and open source if you want true innovation.

Excellent commentary!

I will put aside my usual sarcasm and criticism and praise this article.

Very well done, it sums up everthing we need to know about Microsoft current state. A must read.

[corelogik]

LOL

ROFLMFAO,.... : )

[solomonrex]

Good point about X360

MS is in real trouble because they're muddying the waters with their various motives and scheming.

To explain:
If Vista rolls out in time for Christmas, maybe their core X360 gamers (who also play a lot of PC games) buy a PC instead. MS doesn't want this, they need all the power they've got behind X360 - which in the long run is more profitable (though this serves the consumer side only). So MS isn't really upset about this delay, after all, what are the OEMs going to do? Lower prices on hardware - which means MS still wins. They can sell a 5 year old OS and a 1 year old OS at the same price, and the OEMs have to make up for it somehow. As long as they have their monopoly, it's win-win for MS, because they're pushing customers to the X360 - now that they know the PS3 won't be a real threat.

So MS is getting into real trouble competing with their customers in many, many markets and it's going to bite them soon. When their mp3 player comes out next year, it could be the beginning of the end. Consumers would be served pretty easily by a cell-phone like arrangement via cable internet/dsl providers, where MS Apple and Linux would work fine for the Internet and for openoffice. MS is turning into Apple but it's happening so slowly the OEMs haven't organized and revolted yet.

For their shareholders, for the OEMs and for the consumers, MS should have split up voluntarily. If they keep up these hardware shenanigans, they'll have to soon.

[balkce]

Finally a good read, but anyway...

Although this topic is fresh and new, most of the comments
here have already exposed my feelings towards this subject.

I'll take this opportunity to say "Finally!". This was a very well
written article from a place that I thought was going to the
ground journalistically: since all of the MacOS X "viruses" and
"worms", News.com in my view was beginning to be a place of
tabloids and no-news-articles that blew up the partial truths in
many stories (being Apple or Windows related) making them
fantastical to get more views in their articles. One article with
the title similar to "The firt MacOS X Virus" actually dealt about a
vulnerability that was patched about eight months before the
article was written; another one with the title similar to "Vista's
not Out, but Already Has First Virus" was about the WMF
vulnerability that hindered all of the Windows versions, not only
Vista.

This article was to the point with very well argumented points of
view and a clear-cut opinion; a work that deserves a "Well done"
from a very knowledgeable IT professional. I'm not one of those,
but in any case: Well done, Mr. Cooper.

Having said that, I don't 100% agree with some points in this
article. Specifically the one almost at the end:

Microsoft can still shrug its shoulders and promise a "better"
version of Windows sometime soon (it just did). I admit, though,
that yes: Microsoft's customers have other alternatives, but in
the myst of where Linux is right now in terms of usability and
fame in the desktop world (which is the world that Vista uses as
it's main environment), Windows still has a large hold on the
market of unknowledgeable customers who don't know better.
And yes, Google is a big opponent in terms of IT solutions, but I
don't see that as a serious competition: MSN tried to bring an
information-services competition to the table even before
Google appeared on the map but didn't have any real ground-
gain against Yahoo! and Altavista (something that Google did
and beautifully); my point being that there's really nothing to
lose in that department.

So, frankly, I don't see this as something that may hurt (much)
Microsoft's sales when Vista does come out. It will still ship
included in OEM's boxes; those hundreds of thousands that ship
each year and end up in customers offices or homes who just
use what comes pre-installed. It may probably provoke some
sort of resenment and distrust in Microsoft's OEMs towards Big
Brother MS, but what else is new? They need to sell, and
customers will demand the newest version of the OS which will
be Vista at that moment. I know of very few people that buy the
PC and OS separately, an even fewer who actually beleive Linux
is a real alternative for desktop-work environment... I beleive it
is, I know it is, but any Windows System Administrator will faint
at the thought of porting every workstation to a Linux
environment and the accompanied hassle of explaining to the
user "where did Outlook go?". Apple may be the best answer to
this, probably because, even though you still have the hassle I
just talked about, you have a beautiful and intuitive interface to
back you up. Nevertheless, there's still hassle, and human
thought always travels in the path of least resistance, and that's
Microsoft best marketing tool. So as long as Microsoft says
"you'll have to wait for it", Microsoft's users will wait; some may
begin seeing other alternatives, but, comparing the incovenience
provoked by the unactivity of a month or so to the apparent
endless hassle of the famous "switch", I beleive most of them
will just sit and wait.

[The Masked Villain]

There Is Something Very Wrong In Redmond

There is one thing about the delay in releasing Windows Vista that everyone seems to have overlooked. Why would Microsoft volentarily pass up on the biggest sales event of the year? The Christmas shopping season. In the past Microsoft has released software that was not quite ready for prime time, then issued a service pack to bring it up to speed. This time they are forgoing a major sales event entirely. Does this smack of a serious problem with Vista? I can see no other reason for the delay. What ever the problem, I think I'll wait until the first, or maybe even the second service pack is released before I lay down my hard earned cash on this product.