August 4, 2004 11:17 AM PDT
Perspective: The decline and fall of the Wintel empire
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That's how one analyst explained the recurring product delays at Microsoft, and the principle can describe similar problems at chip giant Intel. Instead of waking up sick and washed out, employees at these companies are seemingly dawdling a bit because of past successes and a hazy outlook.
You can imagine the scene: You're a product manager for Windows. You wake up one day and hear analysts and competitors saying that Linux will begin to creep onto desktops. At the same time, the Linux desktop may not happen for several years. Your financial outlook is better than you ever expected back in college. At the same time, you also see few great opportunities for rapid internal advancement or lateral placement.
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Like ancient Rome, Microsoft and Intel both seem bogged down with pesky problems on the horizon.
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Tackle a daunting project? Nah. I'll just stay at home, eat a box of Frosted Mini-Wheats and watch the Wacky Races marathon.
The creeping sense of privileged paralysis is one of the dominant themes of Edward Gibbon's "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire," perhaps the ultimate book about big organizations gone bad. (Todd Nemet, an engineer at Google, sends this sometimes-active link that allows people to test what kind of an emperor they would be.)
In over six volumes, Gibbon describes how the political and military leaders of Rome shifted from concentrating on governance to personal enrichment. The quest for continual growth outstripped their ability to control a sprawling land mass covering contrasting climates and various tribes. Augustus, the first emperor, clearly saw the problems with expansion, but his vision was discarded.
"The seven first centuries were filled with a rapid succession of triumphs; but it was reserved for Augustus to relinquish the ambitious design of subduing the whole earth, and to introduce a spirit of moderation into the public councils," Gibbon wrote. "Inclined to peace by his temper and situation, it was easy for him to discover that Rome, in her present exalted situation, had much less to hope than to fear from the chance of arms; and that, in the prosecution of remote wars, the undertaking became every day more difficult, the event more doubtful, and the possession more precarious, and less beneficial."
Like ancient Rome, Microsoft and Intel both seem bogged down with pesky problems on the horizon. Microsoft is trying to incorporate fairly elegant search technology and a dynamic interface into Longhorn. It also wants to expand Windows to accommodate 64-bit software. In addition, teams of engineers are working on game consoles, cell phone software and enhancements for television.
Meanwhile, Linux and Google are becoming more prominent in the technology universe. Direct, cutthroat competition is now frowned upon, so new ways of undermining these companies need to be developed.
For its part, Intel has delayed a number of server, desktop and notebook projects. Its communications division, meanwhile, continues to lose money, and an effort hatched in 2000 to take on Texas Instruments in cell phones has moved slowly. Last year, Intel tried to milk its flash memory division for more money, but it lost customers instead.
The frontiers appear to be doing better than headquarters. The underlying architecture of Intel's Pentium 4, designed in the United States, exudes too much heat; a version that was supposed to come out next year was canceled. Conversely, an Israeli design group created the successful Pentium M for notebooks. Around 2006 and 2007, the concepts from this lab will become the basis for the desktop chips.
Even with a well-coordinated, hypervigilant work force, Microsoft and Intel face the reality of dealing with three- and four-front wars.
Microsoft, moreover, has established a foreign relations effort over the last 18 months that will potentially let it establish a bulwark against Linux in emerging markets. The company now has around 600 employees with titles such as "national technical officer" and "public sector director" that provide government officials in countries like Brazil with information on software educational issues, trade and intellectual-property regulations.
The company's outreach often raises eyebrows in the United States and Europe, but the help is likely welcomed in nations like Jordan and Poland, which are trying to participate more fully in globalism.
"We show them how to develop a local software industry," said Maggie Wilderotter, senior vice president of Microsoft's public-sector division.
For its part, Intel's recent problems pale in comparison with the recalls and Rambus-related glitches in 2000. It's also hard to slight the intelligence level or overall competitiveness of employees at both companies.
Still, the problem of size remains. Even with a well-coordinated, hypervigilant work force, Microsoft and Intel face the reality of dealing with three- and four-front wars.
"Intel shows every sign of trying to speed up its progress by assigning more people to each new project," Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Raymond James, wrote earlier this week. "This strategy has appeared to have reached the point of negative incremental improvements."
In Rome, circumstances eventually overwhelmed talent. The death of the last great emperor, Theodosius, in 395 A.D., led to a division of the empire between his sons Arcadius and Honorius.
"Honorius was without passions and consequently without talents," Gibbon noted. "He soon relinquished (official) occupations, and the amusement of feeding poultry became the serious and daily care of the monarch of the West, who resigned the reigns of the empire to the firm and skillful hand of its guardian Stilicho."
Both companies are strong, but if you see Steve Ballmer feeding chickens, the end could be quick at hand.
Biography
Michael Kanellos is editor at large at CNET News.com, where he covers hardware, research and development, start-ups and the tech industry overseas. He has worked as an attorney, travel writer and sidewalk hawker for a time share resort, among other occupations.
Now, you make the call.
What happened is the real people who utilise technology (ie the non-tech people) have leant size and speed isn?t everything. It is far more effective to concentrate on improving the quality of the data. So the NEW BUZZWORD IS DATA RATIONALISATION, it is cheaper and possibly far more effective than hardware upgrades. To conclude the latest mobile phones now have built in cameras with data storage cards and MP3 players. There?s a new Daddy in town and his name is ?Mobi?, wake up America.
In addition, the US is not geographically confined to an island; therefore, there are considerable differences in how mobile services work in the US. A significant population in the US lives in the suburbs of the major cities. The elevators are large and roomy -- unlike the closet-sized elevators of London. These differences are profound and make your comparison a difficult one. Both are great countries: neither are second to the other. Also, unlike many European countries with poor landline service, the US has excellent landline service.
I would find it to be a stretch that the American consumer is not in-tune with technology. The ten trillion dollar economy of the US is in large part of a cause of the American consumer consuming technology products and services. It's hard to be the worlds largest economy and stick your head in the sand at the same time.
As Deep Throat said, "Follow the money", the computer insider could say, "Follow the semantics." I don't necessarily mean the Semantic Web because that is yet another source of core technology. I mean figure out where the large and busy data pipes are and who is integrating with whom.
Outside of the educational world, articles like this really make me laugh. I have been reading articles about the end of 'wintel' since the early 90's.
Here's a clue... if you have to reach as far back into history as the fall of the Roman empire to find justification in your belief that Microsoft and Intel will collapse, your theory is probably flawed.
Think about it. We live in a capitalistic society, where money is power. You are suggesting that the most successful software company and the most successful microprocessor company are about to collapse. And why?? Because of... Linux? Linux is a single piece of software, not a company. 'Linux' does not have money or employees... it does not have a research division. What it does have, is over 200 patent violations, only one managed code environment, and a large number of unpaid developers. And how about Intel? Who will replace them? LoL... not AMD. Study business... in particular, study the businesses that you are writing about. (hint: look at past court settlements) When you figure out why AMD will never be able to topple Intel, you can send me a letter and admit your mistake. The same mistake that self-proclaimed academics have been making for over a decade.
What a laugh.
Secondly, Why is it that AMD ws the one to sucessfully do what Intel wanted to do and couldn't? Namely, bridge the gap between 32-bit and 64-bit worlds in a way that was backwards compatible.
AMD and Linux may not have massive victories, but hey, that's how Rome was destroyed. Small one at a time victories of the small guys all around them.
You really should read up on your history, it has an amazing penchant for repeating itself in the weirdest ways. :)
To The Author:
You should be a bit more specific in your analogies. There was an insufficient level of detail in your correlations for most people to see what you were trying to point out here.
http://www.linuxdevices.com/articles/AT2631955248.html
"It boils down to two things: Microsoft has infinite money, and the rest of the world, combined around Linux, has infinite money".
About Intel, they lost their memory business long ago.
AMD will gain in the processor business, and that is very good for all of us.
Besides it is not a only Intel/AMD world in the first place.
The same is true for microsoft. Small missteps are the road to loosing the war. MS has been continually tryign to break out of it's protected area with VERY limited sucess. Meanwhile, Linux has made massive inroads in just about every area that it has been pointed at.
There will be no massive, spontaneous downfall. Rather, like rome, the two will die off with a sigh over the following 20+ years unless they reinvent their internal strategies and passion for the conquest.
Like Rome, both have grown complacent and lazy. Both have pushed their borders into loosing war areas. Both are struggling to gain inches where once they gained miles. This is how Rome fell. Not with a bang, but with a barely heard sigh as dozens of Davids walked all over the Goliath.
- "Mobi Dick" and the Fall of the Roman Empire...
- by Razzl August 6, 2004 7:50 AM PDT
- It has been genuinely entertaining to read an article by someone literate enough to quote lots of Gibbon in relation to the hubris of Microsoft. Please feel entitled to do that any time, you've earned the right. Nonetheless, I remain skeptical about whether Microsoft is really in the danger zone for the Fall. If most current consumers in the entire market are using their product, and if Longhorn emerges soon and satisfies the public again, then their dominance may be comfortably assured for another decade before we get to shine Gibbon onto their fatal flaws again. How many decades have to go by before we decide these troubles were just a bumps in the road? Rome survived its "fatal" flaws for centuries...
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(14 Comments)And I think I speak for all of America when I say that people who still call their toilets "loo's" (a 19th-century Cockney pun on "Waterloo=Water closet") aren't as ahead of the times as the correspondant may think and won't be naming our phones for us any time soon, thank you...