Newsmaker: The best idea Jeff Hawkins ever had

CARLSBAD, Calif.--Although he knows not everyone will agree, Jeff Hawkins is convinced Palm's Foleo is the best idea he's ever had.

If it's true, that's really saying something, from the guy who came up with the original Palm Pilot and the Treo smart phone.

Shortly after introducing the Foleo at the D5 conference, Hawkins sat down with CNET News.com (as well as reporters from two Palm enthusiast sites, PalmInfoCenter and TreoCentral).

Q: Is this the "third baby" that you have talked about working on?
Hawkins: It is. I actually think it's going to be the biggest one of all. One of the things you try to do in product design is build what we call category-defining products. You build the first one and then it becomes iconic. That's really hard to do. We clearly did that with the Pilot, marginally less so with the Treo because there were other products, RIM and so on.

This is a whole new category. I think it's the best idea I've ever had. The further out you are, the more people have trouble understanding. It's hard to go back in time, but when we did the Pilot, there were a lot of people that thought that was a stupid idea. I mean a lot.

I'm very confident about (the Foleo). It's a challenging product to design. It's a great idea that's got a huge amount of legs to it. So this, I believe, will be the third one. At Palm, we had the Pilot--the PDA business--and we have the smart-phone business. (Foleo) is going to be the third one. Maybe there will be a fourth one someday, I don't know.

This is a mobile companion. It's for e-mail. That's what we're selling it as.

This is the third leg of the business. This is in its infancy. It's going to take a few years for the product to grow to anything of substantial size. But, you know, we didn't sell a lot of Pilots the first year. We didn't sell a lot of Treos the first year.

In a sense, mobile devices are all competing for space in the overnight bag that executives take with them. My guess is that something this large has to kick something out?
Not true. Let me give you an analogy to the Pilot. We created this organizer. That's what it was. Now, we didn't want to create organizers. We wanted to create handheld computers. We wanted to create personal computers, actually.

But to get a product accepted you have to find somebody who wants to buy it. Then you get it going. Once you get it going and you have a lot of people writing software for it, then it evolves into something else. We knew in the very beginning that it was supposed to be a little computer. But we didn't say what it was. We basically said it's an organizer and we'll find the people who want to buy an expensive organizer. And it was an expensive organizer. It was $300 or $369. Then it turned into something else.

So what is Foleo?
This is a mobile companion. It's for e-mail. That's what we're selling it as.

But what is it really?
Look, there's a lot of people that would love to have something like this as their main personal computer. There's no doubt about it

It's simple. It's small. It's fast. It's solid state. It's easy to use. Instant on and off. It's easy. I am always trying to create a better personal computer. You have to have a two-stage strategy to get to go where you want to go. You have to find that initial customer.

There is no initial customer for (ultramobile PCs). It's like a little broken PC. Who wants that? Very few people. And you are going to see that some people will like it, but not many. Just miniaturizing something isn't the right solution. The first time I learned this lesson was the IBM PC Jr. in 1985. IBM came out with this consumer version of the PC. It was a total flop. They just tried to make it smaller, make it cheaper. No one wanted it. Everyone wanted something better. It's not about just shrinking things and reducing things. You have to find somebody (for whom) this is a step up.

This (Foleo) is a step up for a person who loves this (Treo). That's how you sell your first 100,000 or 200,000 or 300,000 or whatever it is. Very quickly, and this is a key part of the strategy, is to get a lot of people writing software. We've started disclosing to developers. We are going to have about 10 or 12 people who have products when we ship. We are going to actively recruit developers. Over time, it is going to become more.

Did the Pilot ever become a full personal computer? No. Did it replace the PC? No, that was never the objective. But it became a lot more than an organizer. And the Foleo is going to be a lot more than an e-mail smart-phone companion.

More Newsmakers

[rcrusoe]

I just don't see the market for this

I carried a Palm organizer for years and only gave it up when Nokia finally made a smart phone that did everything I needed including syncing via bluetooth with my Mac.

The way I see it, most people want something that will fit in their pocket. And when they need more they use a small notebook computer. This seems too big for convenience and too limited for productivity.

IMO, it's an uber pda that will be fighting for the same buyers as Apple's (& others) expected sub notebooks with flash storage.

I've always liked Palm, so for their sake, I hope I'm wrong. But I don't think I am.

[skshrews]

No More Overpowered Computers

The answer is: why do you need a Mac/PC? You use your phone for PIM utilities, and the Foleo for longer documents, more involved web surfing.

If more and more is available on the web, and the web is getting more accessible (EVDO/WiFi), and the Foleo is instant on, solid state, and good battery life (so it's not an ordeal to open and start), who needs a bloated PC/Mac?

Email and web surfing is what most people do with their computers already, why a large, immobile desktop system to do so little?

[jjesusfreak01]

I see a small market, but they could have done better

As Hawkins mentions in the article, you cant just make a product smaller to sell it, you have to make it better. Unfortunately, he only succeeded in making a smaller laptop, imho.

What it needs is a wwan radio to make it a truly mobile device. You would still need to carry a cell phone with you, since this thing cant make calls, but if it had a wwan radio, you wouldnt need a smartphone to make it work.

Blackberry started the idea of a mobile email communicator. They took a pda type device, and added a cell radio for email communication. Apparently, a big screen isnt needed for this type of communication. They then added calling capability, making it a true smartphone.

New products must fill a void in the system, and although Hawkins is brilliant, he failed to see where the real void is. If they wanted, Palm could release a Treo with a widescreen, and let users type on the screen like with the iPhone (there are already Palm programs for this, Apple wouldnt have a legal leg to sue on). If they did this and made it truly media friendly, and a good PDA, they would have the iPhone beat, and no need to come out with these silly third product lines. Maybe the Foleo v2 will be something to write home about but this sure isnt.

[wildchild_plasma_gyro]

Some people just have no Imagination

Microsoft portable devices have functionality and windows but even when i read the mirocrost rsearch dosiar it did seem liked they really cared much for this market.
In fact i absolutly love the Palm conacep and would think it wise for wore to be done in this area.
You see what you looking at is a child perspective what games can i play what music can i listen to and in that respect you can do that with an iphone or an Mp3 player, or loads of little gadgets but where the Palm comes in is for Adults.
People in diffrent industries both up and comming and old.
Yes you can hire some engineers to do everthing on the windows for you but microsoft don't really have the passion here i'm sure palm have been stopped a little by idiots in the past here but there is a lot of use for a palm and palm i do believe have the passion it's a shame its not fully be utilised and funded for y industries and has much room to grow.
Infact I would percieve A healthy market for this one eventually of three companies.
Thats what i want is Palm to properly be utilised in the adult world because hey we can all afford three electronics engineers to specialise a windows platform and palm seem to have the passion for flexability even if industry and up and comming industries haven't realised it yet.
Nope if you were allowed to dream and work properly these days you would surly see much use for such a market.

[inverse137]

What is he thinking?

Ok, average traveling business person here. I have a laptop with a 15" screen, Treo smart phone, iPod, various binders/portfolios to hold paper, pens, cables, etc.

Now what do I want? Another "computer" smaller than my laptop and larger than my treo to cram in my bag. Hmm, I wasn't aware I wanted that...glad someone let me know!

Now, what I thought I wanted was a Treo with a full touch screen display (like the iPhone), an MP3 player with a minimum of 8GB of storage (OK, also like the iPhone), exchange activesync capabilities (blackberry is not a reliable solution for small/medium size businesses - but that's an entire rant unto itself), built in GPS, 3G Internet access, bluetooth, wi-fi, GPS (yeah I said that one already but that is 'THE KILLER APP' a "Smart Phone" needs. I want the ability to store Microsoft Office documents on the phone but not necessarily work on them on the phone (I have a laptop for that), I want to be able to receive files I have forgotten quickly via email on my phone or receive last minute revisions.

The word for the day is "convergence." I do not want another device that is extremely crippled in what it can do.

I have a Treo and a laptop. I can easily bridge the laptop to the Treo and have high speed Internet access. I DO NOT NEED ANOTHER DEVICE.

How can a guy as brilliant as the founder of Palm have such a brain fart?

[Beaconps]

Another traveler's opinion

What I want in a device on the road:
Long battery life
Ability to work with documents, forms, spreadsheets, mapping like Streets and Trips
Instant on and off
Small form factor to work on crowded airplanes
light weight
Occasional connectivity to exernal drive for documents and backup.
Internet access including e-mail
GPS (wish list)
Bullet proof and permanent data repository (mandatory)
MUST BE ABLE TO USE VERIZON AZ ACCESS CARD

I don't want a smart phone, I prefer a simple phone. I really liked my several Palm Pilots but when the program froze solid on the last, I never replaced it. Palm Pilots were easy to use, easy to lose, and they lost important data easily.

My big gripe is all the money I am paying for connectivity in my life. I canceled my land lines and mailboxes and call waiting and dial-up ISP, canceled cable, won't pay for smart phone connectivity. I have pared down to the VZA card and a simple mobile phone, and a gigantic lugtop from HP, costs about $130 a month and I have just about perfect connectivity and productivity anywhere in the US, except on a plane and I spend a lot of time on planes. I swap the card among several of my special purpose computers. I consider the Foleo a special purpose computer that will replace smart phones. I have not found the sub notebook at a reasonable price that meets my travel needs so continue to carry the lugtop with almost no battery life.

Syncronising documents gets to be a real major pain as well as backups and accidental Save? No. I'm not sure what is more traumatic, losing a girl friend or two months worth of contact and billing data among several clients after the Palm Pilot slipped out of my pocket. Or when the %$# Pilot froze, twice, I lost another 2 months of billing data and then a year of billing info on the PC was overwritten with nothingness when I tried to repair it. No more Palm Pilots, they are toys. The Foleo MUST have a bullet proof data repository, otherwise it's a toy, no sale. My USB flash thumbs get scrambled so are now considered toys. I agree with the other poster, some stuff is for kids and some stuff is for adults.

I will always use a wide screen lugtop as a home computer because you can lock it up in a metal box.

Off-topic:
Big, big market out there for SIMPLE cell phones with pre-paid minutes, no use it or lose it or monthly fee. I'd buy them for my elderly parents for safety reasons. Once they got over the technophobia, they would get and use regular cell phones or re-load minutes. To them, cell phones are star wars technology and I know all are far too complicated for the average 65 let alone 90 year old, yet they are perfect for oldster safety.
There should be a disaster channel on all cell phones so local emergency information can be broadcast and then dialed into.

[thekartik]

Cool idea... But

I think APPLE will develop this thing...
may be iCompanion

[Len Bullard]

Does It Incorporate HTM?

If he incorporated his concepts for Hierarchical Temporal Memory (his term for spatio-temporal memory where both time and space are hierarchies), then it is a *self-organizer* based on the information of interest to the local user. Think of it as a *community of interest of one member*.

It isn't a new idea. Logistics analysis takes these ideas into account. Versions of Hytime were altered to take this into account.

http://www.infoloom.com/gcaconfs/WEB/seattle96/prog.HTM#N17

It is a good means to create an AI that gets around the problems where Winograd, Minksy and others almost solved but failed because exahaustive state-space search is not how human intelligence works. Human intelligence is local but has emergent controls based on feedback-mediated adaptation (essentially, second order cybernetics) so Wiener came closest to getting it right.

Consider a sensor system (alerts) hiearchically organized and evaluating and organizing inputs 24 x 7. Your NIEMS alerting is that model but using human hierarchies to do the organizing. So give the humans this device, route the alerts to it, and it works when they sleep, never forgets, and can back up local organizations to central servers for more complete pattern recognition.

He has a market ready and waiting. Go Jeff... and send us the specs.

Len Bullard
UAI - Huntsville

[ithinktfiam]

Continuing Palm's downward spiral

As an early Palm user, I was never interested in a Treo for a reason Palm never seemed to internalize: I wanted a PDA size screen with telephone functions, not a tiny telephone with a minimal screen trying to be a PDA.

He still doesn't get it. I don't want a larger device that's a "companion" to my cell phone. I want a converged device that's useful as both. With wireless earpieces, there's no reason to require a tiny thing you hold to your head, so forget the phone, forget being a companion to the phone and create a real device!

[ahickey]

I think it's a good idea

I use a computer for work and do some traveling.
Even at work I just use Web/Email/Word/Excel.

I'm not brand loyal and open to new ways of working.
To me the Foleo would meet all my working computer needs and would be light with instant on. How is this a bad thing.

I think some people are too afraid of changing their working practices from full laptops to something like the Foleo just in case they need something.

Get a smart phone and a Foleo and your needs will be met assuming the connectivity and sync systems work. It means you can ditch the laptop and reduce the weight in your bag (something I?d love to do).

These will see and sell well. When the Linux developers get a hold of them its functionality will grow.

As an aside ? this could be the equivalent of the $100 computer for the rest of the world (I know it?s not that cheap, but the concept is the same)