Tech VIPs say future belongs to open source

PALO ALTO, Calif.--A panel of high-profile industry players weighed in Thursday on whether the world will ultimately turn to open source as a means for solving its software needs, with the overriding view being "yes."

In the next five to 10 years, the open-source movement will transform the software business, according to several top industry executives speaking at the AO 2005 Innovation Summit at Stanford University.

"We're building a whole new world in the software industry," said Ray Lane, a partner at venture capitalist Kleiner Perkins Caufield &Byers, who was moderating the open-source panel.

Kim Polese, CEO of SpikeSource, said she believes that every application in a proprietary technology environment will become an open-source tool in the coming years. Her company provides an integrated package of interoperable pretested software to CIOs.

Asked by Lane whether she thinks companies will pay for a license to own open-source tools, Polese answered yes. Companies will also learn to better cooperate with industry rivals to build and adapt open-source applications that work for their businesses, Polese said.

Stability and security will be other drivers of open-source software, said Rahul Kapoor, a partner with Morgan Lewis & Bockius.

That sentiment drew mixed reviews from other panelists, who wondered if the software simply seemed more secure because virus writers are more focused on larger pools of users, such as those who rely on Windows.

Lane asked the panelists where companies should go if their open-source technology breaks.

Sun Microsystems President Jonathan Schwartz answered that if it's Red Hat's technology, for example, then companies would turn to Red Hat.

"Companies that present you with technology need to provide you with assurances," Schwartz said, adding that the software industry must adopt open standards for it to thrive.

"Open standards mean more than open source," said Schwartz.

He pointed to Firefox as an example of a product that's growing popular rapidly because it's simple and easy to use. He noted that it's a side benefit that the program just happens to be open source.

"Why is Firefox being adopted so quickly? Because IE is a lame product. It's not so much about open source--but that's great--but that it works so much better," he said.

Schwartz further noted that services built around open source add value. Yahoo Search, for example, is free, but the advertising service around it is tremendously valuable, he said.

Rod Smith, vice president of emerging technologies at IBM, gave his assessment of the open-source industry over the next 10 years.

"By 2010, or 2015, the business will be very different, and it's going to combine multidisciplinary applications," Smith said. "We're early pioneers of this."

[Terry Gay]

Same Old Song and Dance

I have been hearing about open source spelling the death of Microsoft for a decade now. Other than web servers, where Apache and php reigns supreme, Linux has failed to bring uniformity and functionality to business applications. This is Microsoft's strength.

I am sick and tired of the whining about Bill Gates and Microsoft being the embodiment of the Evil Empire. Linux is ruled by a power hungry despot, Linus Torvald, who holds the reins of innovation so tightly that Linux will never compete with Microsoft for business applications.

Apple as always has had many chances, but they too are ruled by a power hungry despot, Steven Jobs who overprices his products and whose restrictive licensing practices have kept his company on the edge of bankruptcy.

People want innovation to be sure, but above all they want uniformity in their products. They want applications that share data and they want to be able to share data from node to node. As long as Linux goes along willy nilly and real innovation is stifled and changes are slow to materialize subject to Torvald's review, open source will never be a serious contender to Microsoft.

[edbong]

.. ...sung and danced by more and more people

Terry... you are right. This is an old story. It maybe its even more then 10 years but the difference is (like in all trends) that Open Source is hitting critical mass. What FOSS is missing today is 1) Business Applications and 2) some good business models that kick start VC funding. The reasons why FOSS will succeed in the long run are obvious a) developers love (and they have to choose what they work with) 2) Customer love it (since in many cases its simply cheaper) 3) the large Hardware players love it (customer hardware spending increases) 4) government (especially in the developing world) love it since it leaves $ and knowledge in the local IT industry. With Firefox Open Source has crossed the Chasm and gotten mainstream. The SW industry will be turned up-side-down. http://www.humano2.org