November 18, 2004 3:30 PM PST
Slimmer tube TVs to challenge flat panels
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for flat-panel sets have been made to match CRTs.Average prices for CRTs are expected to fall as the market consolidates and survivors are forced to be profitable at low price points, according to Trinker. Many major players in the CRT business, including Sony, Toshiba, Matsushita and Sharp, have pulled back their efforts.
Trinker added that televisions are headed for prices less than $500, with average tags in the $250 range. To offset low prices, volumes will have to be high, and that might be difficult as flat panels evolve into a larger part of the overall television market.
The share of worldwide TV shipments that are LCD models will grow from 5 percent this year to 18 percent in 2008, according to iSuppli. The total TV market is expected to jump from about 168 million units to roughly 203 million units during that period.
Flat-panel televisions are becoming a larger part of the LCD market as well. This year, revenue from flat-panel desktop monitors will account for 41 percent of the overall market, and notebooks will account for 22 percent, according to DisplaySearch. LCD-based televisions will account for 11 percent. By 2008, revenue from desktop monitors will make up only 31 percent and notebooks, 16 percent. LCD televisions will provide 33 percent of the market, DisplaySearch forecasts.
Also helping the flat-panel television market will be the transition from analog to digital television. The transition is being pushed by a confluence of forces, including a long-standing federal mandate to shift over-the-air TV broadcasts from analog to digital signals; improvements and lower prices in display and digital storage technologies; heated competition between satellite and cable TV providers; and Hollywood's growing acceptance of the digital evolution.
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