Pooh-poohing iPhone damage to Nokia

Nokia is headed toward 40 percent global market share and Apple can't make a dent in that, a mobile distributor contends.

The story "Pooh-poohing iPhone damage to Nokia" published June 27, 2007 at 6:03 AM is no longer available on CNET News.

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[chassoto--2008]

And Walkmans will always be #1

Sony has learned the hard way. They didn't heed Admiral
Yamamoto: beware of sleeping giants.

[kool_skatkat]

Always or Never

Always is such a long time. Beware...

[shoffmueller]

Excellent comment

not even going to read the other comments left here.

[Thomas, David]

Crystalline Fractures

I think that crystal ball he/she is using needs to be fixed.

[DrewHew]

Apple will NEVER be #1...

...in the mobile sphere, unless it changes it's approach.

1. Pricing
2. Features (or lack thereof)
3. Allow development
4. Enable other carriers

A good point was made by Brightpoint's Laikin - Nokia is NOT JUST overall leader, but leader in different market segments - low end, mid range AND high end (IMHO high end is questionable, what with the dominance of Sony-Ericsson and Palm). But the fact remains that Nokia caters to all cross-sections. Ironically, Apple has followed this model in the case of the iPod which has an offering for different markets (read pockets).

The price points on the current iPhone offerings mean that (for now) Apple is catering only to a limited group (studies show 30 something, educated males in well-paying jobs to be the most likely buyers). In addition to the fact that the price may be burdensome to most, Apple has seriously dropped the ball on feature-sets that would make the iPhone a worthwhile purchase -

NO flash support
NO MMS!!! (my cheap Nokia 3200b has MMS!)
NO A2DP (Revolutionary Multimedia Device???)
NO 3G
NO editing of Word/Excel Documents
NO streaming content (except of course for YouTube)
NO video recording (once again Nokia has even mid-range offerings that record decent video)

And there are more NO's (check Gizmodo, Engadget, Google - pick your choice!)

The iPhone is a BEAUTIFUL device, and I've been caught up in it's hype as much as (and maybe even more than) the next man, BUT it's NOT worth the price tag, is severely short on feature-sets to be considered a 'smart' phone, and has a very limited target market as much as pundits would have us believe otherwise.

One important note: Apple does know how to get better (very quickly). So NO, I'm not ruling them out, I'm just saying 'Bad Start'.

[best4less]

Apple can improve its products too.

Don't forget - Apple can improve its products too. Apple is smart- starts with a high margin device. What could prevent Apple from introducing a $299 iPhone, or even a $149 iPhone in the near future? Just remember, Apple/Steve Job is not going to stand still!

[wiredboy10003]

Well DrewHew...

I guess if everyone had a Mercedes then nobody would want one,
huh?

The main reason I'm not running out to buy one is the SIM card. It's
internal and appears to be unchangeable. With my current setup, I
use the SIM card in my big Treo during the day and drop it into my
tiny Nokia when I go out at night. As much as I love the looks of
the iPhone I wouldn't want to leave it in a bar after a few cocktails!

[bureauguy]

I agree Apple needs to improve quickly

but that's the good thing about Apple. Despite it's shortcomings,
I am still going to purchase one. I just hope a lot of these little
things can be upgraded over time.

The review by Walt Mossberg gives me hope......
"We have been testing the iPhone for two weeks, in multiple
usage scenarios, in cities across the country. Our verdict is that,
despite some flaws and feature omissions, the iPhone is, on
balance, a beautiful and breakthrough handheld computer. Its
software, especially, sets a new bar for the smart-phone
industry, and its clever finger-touch interface, which dispenses
with a stylus and most buttons, works well, though it sometimes
adds steps to common functions.

The Apple phone combines intelligent voice calling, and a full-
blown iPod, with a beautiful new interface for music and video
playback. It offers the best Web browser we have seen on a
smart phone, and robust email software. And it synchronizes
easily and well with both Windows and Macintosh computers
using Apple's iTunes software.

It has the largest and highest-resolution screen of any smart
phone we've seen, and the most internal memory by far. Yet it is
one of the thinnest smart phones available and offers impressive
battery life, better than its key competitors claim."

But he does have some critism for the iphone too, but overall it
seems pretty good. Hopefully Apple will address the
shortcomings quickly.

[eurobloke]

You are right about Nokia

As you rightly said Nokia is like the Tesco of mobile phones, catering to every market. Whether it is the cheap GSM phone that cost just around ?50 like the Nokia 1100, for just the people who want a simple phone and the people in the third world, to the big business beasts like the N95 for ?750 (unlocked), which does everything including the kitchen sink.

Plus, they have been in the market since the ?mobiles? of the Autopuhlien and the NMT. Like any company, they have made mistakes like not making 3G phone because there was no 3G networks in Finland by the network providers of Sonera, elisa and DNA. And the failure of making a clamshell phone, when they were fashionable, subsequently the Korean companies like Samsung came in and toke some of the market share.

Another thing is they have strong relationship with the major companies like Vodafone, T-mobile, Orange, Telefónica O2, Tele2 and TeliaSonera.

Remember those folks in Keilaniemi, Espoo seem faraway, but they have their eyes on the ball at all times.

[open-mind]

Just Like The iPod

It's not about which device has the most features.

And it's not about which device is cheapest.

It's about which device combines the right features in an elegant
and easy-to-use package that people want to own. Apple
proved that with the iPod. In that regard, the iPhone appears to
be staged for success.

Also, calling your new iPhone a "phone" is kind of like calling
your new Lexus a "wheel". The iPhone is a PC, just like the other
smart phones. It's an Apple PC that fits in your pocket and just
happens to also make phone calls and do iPod stuff.

And like the other PC form factors (laptop and desktop),
handhelds will eventually consolidate down to a relativevly small
number of inexpensive yet sophisticated platforms, standards,
and interfaces. And Apple will be one of them.

I think Apple is poised to do well in this new PC space.

[K.P.C.]

I have feeling that . . .

. . . this Mr. Larkin is going to be in for a rude awakening if he
truely believes that the iPhone will sell:
"maybe 1 to 2 million units. . . in the coming quarters"

He doesn't seem to realize that a whole lot of people will also be
purchasing the "Coolest Video iPod" that just happens to "Hook
Up to the Internet" and . . . Oh yeah . . . You can "Make Phone
Calls With It" as well. ;-)

"maybe 1 to 2 million units. . . in the coming quarters"?
I'd re-estimate that unit figure to:
"In the coming weeks . . . if not days" :-)

[tsm26]

And I have a feeling that...

You need to really look at the numbers. Estimates are that there are 196 million cell phone users in the U.S. Many of those are users in the same family. Now for you to get 1 to 2 million of those in a few weeks that would be getting 1% market share in that amount of time. You forget that many if not the majority of these people are under contracts with other carriers that will have to not only fork over the 500-600 for the iphone, but also a cancellation and activation fee. I think his numbers are spot on. I only know 1 person personally that is getting an iphone soon out of hundreds of white collar workers. A ton of them WANT one, but most are held back because of contracts or because they just bought a new blackberry. Adoption is going to take a long time, but I do believe it could reach a much higher ceiling than Larkin says. However, your prediction is ridiculous.

[john55440]

iPhone (a.k.a. iYawn) is pretty lame...

The lame iPhone is certainly no threat to either Nokia or Blackberry.

In his Znet Blog Adrian Kingsley-Hughes got it right:

"Overall, I?m disappointed. When I look at the iPod of the MacBook, I see real cutting-edge innovation. Sure, you can buy cheaper but it?s hard to buy better. The iPhone lacks this cutting-edge feel and is missing key cellphone features present if phones which cost less than half the price Apple expects you to pay for the iPhone. It?s not a tool, it?s a shiny bauble."

[mike.gw]

Not lame at all. Best set of compromises

Any device you build must contend with compromises. Wireless carriers exert a lot of control over what features cell phone manufacturers will use over the carrier's network. Take my carrier, Verizon. Verizon was late in the market with phones that offered Bluetooth capability, and when they finally did offer a Bluetooth model, Verizon artificially limited what the phone could do. If you take a digicam pic on your Bluetooth cellphone, one would think that you can transfer it freely to a Bluetooth enabled computer. Not with Verizon (at the time). They wanted you to use their service to transfer the pic via e-mail. This meant signing up for the basic monthly service, and paying a per item fee for the transferred image via e-mail. WHY? So VErizon could squeeze every last drop of change from the customer's pocket.

No the AT&T Edge network is not the best or most reliable, but Apple chose to partner with a cellular carrier that would let them design the phone as they saw fit, without interference. This way, the phone works on the carrier's network as the phone designer intended. Verizon nor Sprint offered Apple this flexibility.

If Apple has to make a big dent in the market with their first effort, it makes sense to offer the limited 2.5G experience to a broad worldwide market, rather than the more limited 3G market for now.

Some of the other basic features missing from the iPhone (based on reviews I read) seem to be more of a design decision than a limitation. For instance, if you have a touchscreen, then it's pretty hard to implement easily accessible speeddial keys, right? Again, it's all about compromise. The merits of the full screen and flexible software interface of the iPhone seem to outweigh the rather small amount of limitations.

Perhaps Blackberry will license their push software to Apple someday, if Apple agrees to stick to touch screen only devices that don't directly compete with Blackberries.

[trisor]

Don't care about being #1

Apple doesn't HAVE to do anything. And, they don't have to be #1. If they only sell 2 million units, they'll make a half BILLION in profit. Not at all bad for the bottom line.

They can (and, I think will) improve the iPhone over time. Most of the detractors are saying almost the exact same things that were said about the iPod. Too expensive, not enough memory, too late to the market, etc. They may end up with a decent market share but they don't need to do so for this to be a successful product launch.

[K.P.C.]

So I take it, John55440 . . .

That you agree with Mr. Larkin's sales estimates:
"maybe 1 to 2 million units. . . in the coming quarters"

I bet you also said a few years back:
"The iPod is dead on arival"
"What the F**k is a scroll wheel?"
"Who would EVER pay that much for a stupid MP3 player?"
"You mean I have to sync with iTunes? . . . Who would ever do
that?"

You seem to think:
"cutting-edge" is a users manual the size of a phonebook.
"cutting-edge" is a physical keypad taking up over 1/2 of the
possible screen space.
"cutting-edge" is Windows Mobile <ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!>

I live in Japan.
The iPhone won't be available here till next year.
I'm visiting family in the States next month and I may get an
iPhone then just to use as a "Video iPod".
Only 4/8 Gb's? - who cares - I don't need to carry around my
entire [music/video/tv] collection everytime I leave the house.

Does the Wi-Fi work even without AT&T access?
I do believe so - though someone can correct me if I'm wrong

[Hoser McMoose]

From the next story on C-Net

If you take a look at the next story on C-Net, titled "Global mobile phone use to pass record 3 billion", you'll see why the iPhone isn't making much of a dent in things. Of particular importance is that 65% of customers are from emerging markets where the iPhone is unlikely to ever be popular due to it's high cost.

Also, with the talk of how Apple has an ambitious goal of selling 10 million phones a year, that still represents only about 1% of the market.

The iPhone will sell and probably be fairly successful for what it is. It has enough features that people want and Apple's marketing is doing their job well. However it's been RIDICULOUSLY over-hyped when you look at how little it adds over comparable phones. Going from the articles you would think that this is somehow a revolutionary product, but really it's only a slight improvement over what's out there now. Better music player and better browser are the two real points of improvement. The touch screen is the only really 'new' thing, but it's mostly new because the other manufacturers know how annoying touch screens with small buttons are.

[mjm01010101]

nokia

Haven't used a nokia phone in 4 years. I went nokia-->samsung-->Palm and my next device will be whatever has the best integration with Mobile 6/7.

[K.P.C.]

iPhone is Doomed . . .

I bet there will be even fewer people waiting in line than there was
waiting to experience the "Wow" of Vista . . .

Oops . . .

Nobody actually had to wait in line for the "Wow" experience ;-)

[Ilgaz]

Nokia (Symbian), Sun (J2ME) and MS (WinCE) should thank iPhone

Symbian and even J2ME users are happier with their devices since they found out what a comfort they have by having chance to install different software, having thousands of options and accessories for their devices.

As a Nokia Symbian 80 based device owner, I started to seriously consider upgrading my device to N90 when it ships. When I heard iPhone, I immediately pictured "iPhone SDK" and "XCode" in my mind. Later, it turned out to be one of the most locked devices ever.

Option? WinCE? No. I use OS X here. I can't really stand to their cold war with Apple. So, a new Symbian S80/S60 based device is way to go.

At the end on Symbian side, Nokia wins. Just wait until business guys figure they can't do Outlook or Notes on $600 device :)

[Sea of Cortez]

Loser = iPhone buyer/user

Who but a brain dead loser would want to look at the web via a 3inch screen! If you want to actually surf/use the web, you need at least a 12-inch screen. And if you want a cell phone, then u don't need to pay $600 for it, set aside stand in the line. iphone is even worst than the above description of its problems, set aside that you need at least a 12 inch screen to really use, benefit from, the Web, you need a KEYBOARD too - Doh!!! And iPhone does not have an actual Keyboard, its Keyboard occupies same space as it's screen! So who but a TOTAL brain washed LOSER would want to look at the web via a 3inch screen and then continuously flip to the Keyboard that takes the same space as this screen, to for example fill a form. It would literally take
20 times as long to fill the form and look at the content of a screen you need to look at to fill that form using iPhone compared to a laptop.

Iphone = more useless crap from Silicon Valley hyped by their Big media gang

Japanese give us Prius that gets 60 Miles per Gallon, French give us TGV that goes 300 Miles per Hour while seating in lap of luxury from city center to city center and what do we get from USA (Silicon Valley), useless Hypes such as iPhone, 2nd life, etc. etc., nothing useful or new.